Any regrets? Why shouldn't I buy in?

[eliza61nyc]

Not one regret. brought into the Beach club villas about 16 years ago and have loved having it every since.

lol, we did not have the cash, we put down 1/2 and put the rest on a credit card with 0% interest for a while.

I also echo, buy where you want to stay especially now since as someone else pointed out, renting points has become uber popular.

 

[HansGruber]

Tell me why I shouldn't.

I want to hear the negatives.

DVC is obviously an expensive endeavor initially and for the life of the contract.
Overlooking the obvious massive buy-in cost, you are assuming an annual dues cost along with all the accompanying costs that go along with a Disney trip (travel, park tickets, food, etc).
If you currently go to Disney annually, then it makes sense. But just remember the contract lasts decades so you'll need a plan of action going forward.
If you'd like to start going to Disney annually, make sure you are comfortable spending such money as the contract essentially locks you into an annual Disney vacation. (depending on points)

 

[TheGuyThatMakesSwords]

DVC is obviously an expensive endeavor initially and for the life of the contract.
Overlooking the obvious massive buy-in cost, you are assuming an annual dues cost along with all the accompanying costs that go along with a Disney trip (travel, park tickets, food, etc).
If you currently go to Disney annually, then it makes sense. But just remember the contract lasts decades so you'll need a plan of action going forward.
If you'd like to start going to Disney annually, make sure you are comfortable spending such money as the contract essentially locks you into an annual Disney vacation. (depending on points)

This is VERY valid. Dear wife and I visit twice per year.... but the average guest (if I remember correctly), goes ONCE, about every FIVE years.

For us? Maybe the best way to put all of this is: IF YOU ARE GOING TO GO ANYWAY... regardless of ticket price, etc. Find that thing that costs the MOST - and beat it into the earth . For US? It was on site Deluxe room cost. For OTHERS? Could be airfare, food, something else.

Now - a comment on "the contract lasts decades". Yes, it does. But you do not need to KEEP it for decades. You need to keep it at least until you hit "break even". This is the point where your huge downpayment + dues have BEATEN real "discounted room cost" (NOT "Rack").

Case in point? My Dear Wife and I bought DVC direct in 2012. I kept a spreadsheet of DISCOUNTED (REAL) Room cost at BRV. As of this November (2018) - we win. All of the $upfront + $dues < "Discounted Room Cost" over the same 2012-2018 period. Now, I know someone will yell about "time cost of money" . Yup, BANK interest rates were about 0.23% over this period. And gee, I could have bought Amazon stock . "Time Cost of Money" is a very fuzzy number .

So - investing in DVC because you are GOING TO GO ANYWAY is not a bad idea. Neutral payback ("break even") seems to vary between 6-8 years.

Now - stuck? Nope . Once one hits "breakeven"? You can sell all your points for $1 . And lose nothing.
Wait, and see, how fast WDW's own ROFR kicks in .

OR? Keep those points for a few years, keep going, and make out like a BANDIT. By our (already booked) APR 2019 Vacation? We will be nailing WDW for a good $5000.00 in profit .

....but CAUTION: This is all because WE WERE GOING TO GO ANYWAY. Your GREATEST savings? DON'T GO TO WDW. WITH DVC - that gives us an effective $120/night room cost.... AIRFARE, TICKETS, FOOD? Each trip is about $6000, party of two. We just don't have to worry about ROOMS anymore.

HansGruber is right. Attack your highest cost, based on YOUR vacation habits (not ours).

All personal opinion - I'm not necessarily right, no one else is necessarily wrong.

 

[yaksplat]

On the spreadsheet that i've been using, I assume a 25% discount off of rack. But recently at the poly, there haven't been discounts above 15%. I have annual increases in room rates, dues, point rentals included as well. I ignore the time value of money, because like you stated, the interest rate is so low and you can't assume you're going to do something smart with your money that will result in profit. I assume that if i didn't spend the cash on a WDW trip, I'd spend it on something else. Our family of 5 spends $5000 to $5500 on each trip, so our break even is 7 years on buying resale and 10 years vs renting points.
Although, I have a hard time believing that Disney isn't going to want to get their piece out of the rental game in the future, pushing up prices.

Anyone else look at the trends in the room rates? A trip is going to be mighty pricey in a decade.

 

[kristenry]

We bought a 150 point resale contract in 2012 and have enough points to go about every 1.5 years. Obviously, the value of our contract has dropped and will continue to do so as we near our expiration date. If I consider it a prepaid vacation, we still have to pay upwards of $1,000 a year in dues for our small point package, so in that sense we're paying $2,000 for our room each time we go...on top of that large initial buy-in price.

That being said, I know we would have never stayed at such nice and roomy places had we not bought DVC. We love having the kitchen and washer/dryer in the rooms. With two older kids, we love having the extra space of a one or two bedroom.

We have always been able to get the room and place we want and have only had to waitlist a couple of times I think (both times it came through). We tend to go at somewhat off-peak times and stay in one-bedroom or two-bedroom villas, which I understand are easier to get than studios. We have never tried, for example, to book Beach Club during food and wine festival or any place over Christmas break.

Another thing to consider, and this has yet to play out, is how the new pricing structure on multi-day tickets will affect DVC members. Tickets will be priced by date and will have to be used within a certain number of days. I hope they take into consideration those DVC members that do not buy APs. It will certainly affect our future trips and desire to hold onto our contract if park tickets cost a lot more and are less flexible. I could see us selling and going less often, but splurging on nice rooms/renting DVC points.

The Poly is great...definitely our favorite and one we would have bought into had they offered something in between the studio and bungalow. Good luck with your decision.

 

[correcaminos]

On the spreadsheet that i've been using, I assume a 25% discount off of rack. But recently at the poly, there haven't been discounts above 15%. I have annual increases in room rates, dues, point rentals included as well. I ignore the time value of money, because like you stated, the interest rate is so low and you can't assume you're going to do something smart with your money that will result in profit. I assume that if i didn't spend the cash on a WDW trip, I'd spend it on something else. Our family of 5 spends $5000 to $5500 on each trip, so our break even is 7 years on buying resale and 10 years vs renting points.
Although, I have a hard time believing that Disney isn't going to want to get their piece out of the rental game in the future, pushing up prices.

Anyone else look at the trends in the room rates? A trip is going to be mighty pricey in a decade.

I did ages ago out of curiosity. I saw a trend of my super discounted Swan and Dolphin stays coming to an end. It's how I 'justified' the expense. The numbers I had were shocking to me and honestly they're higher now than I expected 15 years ago.

 

[yaksplat]

I decided to pull the trigger. Last night I put a $141/pp offer in on 200 points at the Polynesian. The seller accepted within a couple hours. So now it'll be a waiting game for ROFR...

Thanks for all the reasons why not to. They were very helpful, yet nothing that i saw was major enough to keep me from buying in.

 

[nickys]

Congrats and good luck on ROFR!

Hopefully we’ll be welcoming you home soon.

 

[correcaminos]

I decided to pull the trigger. Last night I put a $141/pp offer in on 200 points at the Polynesian. The seller accepted within a couple hours. So now it'll be a waiting game for ROFR...

Thanks for all the reasons why not to. They were very helpful, yet nothing that i saw was major enough to keep me from buying in.

Good luck! I remember our first wait like it was yesterday - I hope it goes through quickly and smoothly for you!

 

[pooh bears mom]

NO regrets here either. We have been owners for almost 10 years now. I don't agree with the high direct and resale prices at the current time. If your family is young it is well worth purchasing now, and it sounds like you have zeroed in on the Poly. The poly is the only DVC resort with connecting studios so that is a nice plus there. I would purchase resale, unless you are looking for the member perks, then purchase the minimum direct for the perks and the rest on resale.

 

[yaksplat]

NO regrets here either. We have been owners for almost 10 years now. I don't agree with the high direct and resale prices at the current time. If your family is young it is well worth purchasing now, and it sounds like you have zeroed in on the Poly. The poly is the only DVC resort with connecting studios so that is a nice plus there. I would purchase resale, unless you are looking for the member perks, then purchase the minimum direct for the perks and the rest on resale.

With the polynesian at 220 per point and the necessity of a 75 point purchase for benefits, you're looking at an up charge of $5925 for the perk of some discounts. The ROI on this is almost non-existent, especially since we'll never buy annual passes.

 

[Phonedave]

I decided to pull the trigger. Last night I put a $141/pp offer in on 200 points at the Polynesian. The seller accepted within a couple hours. So now it'll be a waiting game for ROFR...

Thanks for all the reasons why not to. They were very helpful, yet nothing that i saw was major enough to keep me from buying in.

Good luck, hope it comes through for you.

 

[richg35]

We bought resale in 2012 and have 250 points at AKV.
We got enough points to stay in 1 bedrooms (we have 3 kids, currently 10 years old).
Personally I think any of the studios that sleep 5 are tight, esp as kids get bigger.
But you seem to have your heart set on Poly and they say to buy where you want to stay.

Other things - are you prepared to basically vacation at Disney every 1 to 2 years?
DVC will lock you into going to Disney and you will spend more money on Disney vacations.

 

[yaksplat]

I was just informed that Disney waived ROFR on 200 points at the Polynesian @ 141/point. Exciting stuff.

 

[correcaminos]

I was just informed that Disney waived ROFR on 200 points at the Polynesian @ 141/point. Exciting stuff.

That's pretty impressive given the price you paid! Welcome home almost

 

[yaksplat]

That's pretty impressive given the price you paid! Welcome home almost

I was a bit concerned. $141 was the going rate in january, but the resale contracts at dvcresalemarket averaged about $160 in august.

Whew!

 

[correcaminos]

I was a bit concerned. $141 was the going rate in january, but the resale contracts at dvcresalemarket averaged about $160 in august.

Whew!

I totally get that! Heck I remember when my $60ish OKW points years ago felt so low that I though it'd be snatched up too. $141 is a fantastic deal for PVB! I'm slightly jealous LOL

 

[Club Cooloholic]

I was a bit concerned. $141 was the going rate in january, but the resale contracts at dvcresalemarket averaged about $160 in august.

Whew!

Nice, for 160 points at AKL we paid $105 a point(really $103.75 for the contract in Disney's eyes but Fidelity tracks on a 195 admin fee so I count that towards the points in my head not the closing costs). I too was a little nervous as I have now seen 110 contracts getting bought back now in the ROFR.

 

[James White]

Well, I just made my first offer last night for 150 points at OKW. very cheap at $93 per point. After really checking out all the resorts, I feel good about buying in at OKW. Rooms are a nice size, the property has that resort feeling to it and I feel good about making this my home resort. Cannot beat the cost. So, yes, am waiting for my confirmation but I feel really good about it. The plan is to visit every other year in the two bedroom villa. Looking forward to making this a Halloween trip with the family every other year.

 

[nickys]

Well, I just made my first offer last night for 150 points at OKW. very cheap at $93 per point. After really checking out all the resorts, I feel good about buying in at OKW. Rooms are a nice size, the property has that resort feeling to it and I feel good about making this my home resort. Cannot beat the cost. So, yes, am waiting for my confirmation but I feel really good about it. The plan is to visit every other year in the two bedroom villa. Looking forward to making this a Halloween trip with the family every other year.

Good luck for ROFR, and hopefully we can say “Welcome Home”to you soon.