Analysts project 10 pct attendance decline at Disney's U.S. parks

[TURKEY]

Analysts at Goldman Sachs are forecasting attendance at Disney’s U.S. parks will fall as much as 10 percent this year.

The firm, which downgraded shares in the Walt Disney Co. from “buy” to “neutral” last week, expects attendance declines at Walt Disney World and Disneyland to accelerate later this year. Goldman estimates that year-over-year attendance fell 4 percent during Disney’s second fiscal quarter, which ended Saturday, and that it will fall 5 percent in the third quarter and then 10 percent in the fourth, which runs from July through September.

Attendance at Disney World and Disneyland fell about 5 percent during the company’s first quarter, which ended Dec. 27.

Goldman says the attendance declines would be stepper were it not for Disney’s buy four nights, get three free hotel promotion. But that comes with its own costs – the firm projects that Disney’s hotel-room revenue will sink as much as 30 percent from a year ago.





http://blogs.orlandosentinel.com/bu...t-attendance-decline-at-disneys-us-parks.html

 

[goodtimes5286]

ouch, i bet obama telling people not to travel and go on vacations probably doesnt help things :shrug:

 

[WDW1974]

No surprise.

Hence all those layoffs to look good to the Street.

I guess no one is smart enough to realize that cutting jobs and putting more people into poverty isn't going to end the economic disaster ... just prolong it.

 

[DoctorPrius]

ouch, i bet obama telling people not to travel and go on vacations probably doesnt help things :shrug:

Do you actually have a quote of him saying that?

I know he said that it was time for people to be more fiscally responsible. Do you want everyone to live beyond their means and spend!spend!spend! Is that an appropriate way to live in your opinion?

 

[golittleperson]

Just finished some reviews on a site that said during spring break the lines and parks were to the maximum. One noted the line for Rockin RC was 2.5hrs. and fast passes were gone before lunch.
We are going in June, the buy 4 deal and made ADR's - could only get LaCel. for lunch as already booked 90 days out? Doesn't sound too slow to me?
A lot of people are probably having to cut back, we are not flying this year due to fares, but trying the train. We are doing only a few sit down meals and the rest counter. But - don't want to give up Disney.
Fear proliferates the recession because we are uncertain about the future. I can't stop living for fear of something unknown. I was laid off before it was called a recession and still am not back to norm - but my
kids are only young and want Mom around for a little while. I just hope and pray my faith is right! Gota make some memories!

 

[timeman]

I wouldn't listen to these analysts as they are seldom right. The best example is at this time last year a lot of those same analysts were saying that Oil would be over $200 a barrel and gas would be over $5.00 a gallon by the end of last year.

I expect attendance will stay steady and you won't see that much of a drop off even though the Buy 4/3 deal is over with. I bet you that is what they are basing there views on and they think most people will not go without that deal.

 

[TP2000]

I agree with timeman. "Analysts" and "experts" are often incorrect. For a good example, see the analysts who hedged on the price of oil in '08, or the experts who bet big on real estate in '07.

Disneyland and DCA have been packed lately. I can't remember a February and March being this busy in recent years. They've been running out of parking spaces every weekend in Anaheim lately and Disney has now contracted out to use the parking at the nearby GardenWalk mall and then bus guests over to the park, or use the Anaheim Convention Center parking when there isn't a big convention in town.

From the sound of it, it looks like the parks are busier than planned in WDW too with recent operating hour extensions, added parades, and reports of long lines and big crowds.

I have no doubt that spending in the parks on food and merch has edged down a bit, and that the discounts on hotel rooms are eating in to profit margins for the hotels. Net quarterly profit will likely edge down and not be so fat and happy for Disney in '09. But a 10% drop in attendance for this summer as predicted by the "analysts" seems to defy all of the recent hard facts and personal observations from people who are actually on Disney property instead of sitting in a New York office looking at a computer screen.

 

[spaceghost]

Well, I guess that means shorter lines for me in early Dec.

 

[Tigger64]

We were there in Dec 08...during Christmas week and it was busier than it was in 2006 at the same time. When they say attendance was down that quarter by 5%...was it up the quarter before? If one time has record attendance, it's hard to maintain that so there will be a drop off. I have no idea if it was or not.

I don't know who to believe anymore....it's obvious those running the show don't know either:shrug:

Ours friends that work at Disney say the parks are packed and the resorts are too. I do see the point that with the deals...they profit isn't as high however.

I'm going to do my part to help the economy

 

[EpcotServo]

You don't say...

 

[ryanduggers]

as much as i do not take much stock in the musings of analysts, they could be somewhat right on this one. the obvious fact that the crowds are heavy right now could be that the average disney visitor does not know how disney handles their discounts. many people saw the commercials and thought that they better act now, before the deal ends, not realizing that the deal will probably run the rest of the year in some form. (free dining during hurricane season). so now instead of spreading their vacation throughout the year, they are all going now and filling the parks. if my thought is correct, then the later part of the year could be much slower. my two cents.

part of me hopes i am wrong, the other part of me hopes for a quiet 12-20 december at POR with 40% off.

 

[TURKEY]

as much as i do not take much stock in the musings of analysts, they could be somewhat right on this one. the obvious fact that the crowds are heavy right now could be that the average disney visitor does not know how disney handles their discounts. many people saw the commercials and thought that they better act now, before the deal ends, not realizing that the deal will probably run the rest of the year in some form. (free dining during hurricane season). so now instead of spreading their vacation throughout the year, they are all going now and filling the parks. if my thought is correct, then the later part of the year could be much slower. my two cents.

part of me hopes i am wrong, the other part of me hopes for a quiet 12-20 december at POR with 40% off.

I know of several complaints received based on "better hurry, time's running out", so people booked a day or two before the special was to end only to magically have it extended again and again.

 

[jmvd20]

I know of several complaints received based on "better hurry, time's running out", so people booked a day or two before the special was to end only to magically have it extended again and again.

I am not seeing the problem with this at all. Disney is selling a service at a greatly reduced rate in order to keep people filling up the parks. Why would they not do this on a short term basis and then extend it as needed based upon the response - or lack thereof?

Also, if people just booked it simply to "beat" the deadline why would they care if it was extended? After all they got their vacation at a reduced rate so what in the world do they have to gripe about?

 

[jmvd20]

ouch, i bet obama telling people not to travel and go on vacations probably doesnt help things :shrug:

Right, WDW attendance numbers are now the governments fault too....

 

[DoctorPrius]

We were there in Dec 08...during Christmas week and it was busier than it was in 2006 at the same time. When they say attendance was down that quarter by 5%...was it up the quarter before? If one time has record attendance, it's hard to maintain that so there will be a drop off. I have no idea if it was or not.

I don't know who to believe anymore....it's obvious those running the show don't know either:shrug:

Ours friends that work at Disney say the parks are packed and the resorts are too. I do see the point that with the deals...they profit isn't as high however.

I'm going to do my part to help the economy

You should do your part to help Disney by not giving them your money

 

[DizneyPryncess]

Just finished some reviews on a site that said during spring break the lines and parks were to the maximum. One noted the line for Rockin RC was 2.5hrs. and fast passes were gone before lunch.
We are going in June, the buy 4 deal and made ADR's - could only get LaCel. for lunch as already booked 90 days out? Doesn't sound too slow to me?
A lot of people are probably having to cut back, we are not flying this year due to fares, but trying the train. We are doing only a few sit down meals and the rest counter. But - don't want to give up Disney.
Fear proliferates the recession because we are uncertain about the future. I can't stop living for fear of something unknown. I was laid off before it was called a recession and still am not back to norm - but my
kids are only young and want Mom around for a little while. I just hope and pray my faith is right! Gota make some memories!

Yep - I was there mid march. Rock N RC was indeed 2.5 hours, along with many other rides being 1.5 hours and longer. I felt it was just as crowded as last July was when I was there. Every restaurant we tried to get into was booked. I didn't find there to be any drop in attendance, and I visit 2-3 times a year. However, it could be true that the latter half of this year is when attendance will drop. I don't know much about analysts to say whether or not I agree - I just know what I experienced myself.

 

[ryanduggers]

i don't think it is anyones fault, but i am wondering if in the current economy there is a shallower well of people who can go this year, and the well may be a little drier by the end of the year.

 

[TURKEY]

I am not seeing the problem with this at all. Disney is selling a service at a greatly reduced rate in order to keep people filling up the parks. Why would they not do this on a short term basis and then extend it as needed based upon the response - or lack thereof?

Also, if people just booked it simply to "beat" the deadline why would they care if it was extended? After all they got their vacation at a reduced rate so what in the world do they have to gripe about?

I don't know, I'm not a lawyer, but maybe one could claim it's false advertising. Advertising something as ending in 2 days and then all of a sudden extending it (when Disney already knew it was going to be extended) seems shady at this point with what's been happening in the economy.


Say you are a person watching on TV and never been to Disney. You see this amazing ad on TV telling you this offer expires on this date and to book now. You decide, hey this is a great deal, lets overextend our credit cards, borrow too much money and go on this vacation when you shouldn't (or at least wait until you actually have the money).


Am I the only one that could draw a comparison to all the adjustable rate mortgages that people really shouldn't be in or couldn't afford that got in them just because of the great advertising?

 

[WDW1974]

It isn't the decline in attendence that is killing Disney right now because it is relatively small considering the economy (here and abroad).

But it's per capita guest spend, which is falling into a hole that could reach to China. No one is buying like they used to. Even with unprecedented sales.

And since almost everyone is staying for 40% off to begin with, well those are the numbers that the analysts will jump on.

Good thing Bob and Jay fired all those folks so they can pass that off as 'a tough decision that needed to be made to continue to provide the best in family entertainment.'

~Disney Magic: Now Discounted Daily With FREE Pixie Dust!~

 

[Captain Chaos]

No surprise.

Hence all those layoffs to look good to the Street.

I guess no one is smart enough to realize that cutting jobs and putting more people into poverty isn't going to end the economic disaster ... just prolong it.

FINALLY!! I am not the only one saying this... Every time a company cuts 8000, 10000, maybe 20000 employees only ADDS to the economic downturn... These companies STILL aren't profitable enough even with large layoffs... Get the picture already.. geez...