A Spirited Perfect Ten

jlsHouston

Well-Known Member
Not very many business and/or hospitality oriented people here I see...

When there's a segment of a company that is skyrocketing (WDW within P&R) despite what's viewed as a lack of innovation and investment, it's a pretty bad idea to take money from lesser performing segments and focus that money on making the cash cow an even bigger chunk of the company.

That's really poor long term planning. Anyone with a shred of business sense should know that you let the gravy train keep rolling as long as it will roll without any investment, and that the investment is instead used to shore up your lesser performing segments.

But again, that's not even what they're doing. They've earmarked billions in capital investments on New Fantasyland, My Magic+, the coming Avatar/Rivers of Light at AK, Frozen at EPCOT, The Pixar and Star Wars properties at Hollywood Studios. All four parks have or will be receiving attractions costing hundreds of millions of dollars over the previous/new few years. They are "feeding" the place to the tune of over $3 billion between 2010 and 2020.

But what do I know? I'm a new poster- my credentials of working in the industry for decades and conducting academic research for several of the major player in the industry as well as teaching and publishing on the subject mean nothing compared to someone who's amassed 15,000 posts on an internet message board. I mean, those are the true experts- the ones who fawn all over WDI at the fire station and act like groupies, trying to socialize and act like they're "in the know" because egomaniacs at Universal Creative and WDI have loose lips to impress their adoring fanboy audiences...

That's the kind of direction you provide to the hospitality industries you work with? To not invest in the business segments that are thriving or turning a profit? And you get paid for that advice?
 
^^^ I'm not really one who looks at the parks like they're a museum. It's a cute old style dark ride that's woefully outdated (even Paris's). For it's time and what the ride's expected to do, it's a truly wonderful attraction just like Mermaid. Maybe DL's will change my mind though once it's been brought up to modern standards. I'm sure SDL's will be impressive too.

^ Yes, I'm sure Disney will go to message boards for their next decisions instead of people who are published in the Library of Congress on the subject. Again, not tooting credentials as much as tooting reality. And people get paid to direct an industry towards growth, be it short or long term (unfortunately short term thinking as taken over everywhere including the hospitality/theme park industries). And yes, telling someone not to invest crazy amounts of capital into a stable product at the top f the marker that has nothing but upside without any interference vs. instead expanding into new markets and shoring up under performing products is usually what I would advise. Doing anything else is just short sided and introduces a load of volatility where none is needed. I'm glad Disney is indeed thinking long term with their strategies for the most part.
 
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Shaman

Well-Known Member
Actually, in the middle of that recession when interest rates were low as hell, that would have been the opportune time.

Exactly. During the economic downturn Disney invested heavily, making acquisitions and pumping money into things like NGE (MM+), Fantasyland Expansion, and Disney Springs. So now they reap the rewards of that. It's all cyclical. I mean the investments they made may not be the kind of stuff that some may like. But they are investments. Long-term vision investments.

The fact is that the high-expectation/instant-gratification/overly-critical/delusional wing of Disney fandom (a vocal minority) won't be pleased until every penny the company has earned is invested in some new dark rides to preserve some sacred nostalgic "Disney feeling" that the majority of park visitors couldn't care less about.

Things are not perfect at the parks. And I think prudent investments are called for, especially to justify the insane cost of a Disney vacation. But, investments for the sake of "keeping up with Universal" is all kinds of dumb. Especially, since Universal is the one trying to keep up with Disney.

And that's not some Disney vs. Universal quip, I enjoy both and have had an AP for both in the past.
 

jlsHouston

Well-Known Member
^^^ I'm not really one who looks at the parks like they're a museum. It's a cute old style dark ride that's woefully outdated (even Paris's). For it's time and what the ride's expected to do, it's a truly wonderful attraction just like Mermaid. Maybe DL's will change my mind though once it's been brought up to modern standards. I'm sure SDL's will be impressive too.

^ Yes, I'm sure Disney will go to message boards for their next decisions instead of people who are published in the Library of Congress on the subject. Again, not tooting credentials as much as tooting reality.

Reality is where do you need your FP+ more often, Peter Pan or Little Mermaid?
 

mahnamahna101

Well-Known Member
Like you, I also think 15,000 hotel rooms at Universal is a crazy number. Even 10,000 is aggressive until Universal figures out how to become a full week vacation.

With the opening of Sapphire Falls, Universal will have 5,200 onsite rooms. More hotel rooms seem possible right now simply because Uni has relatively few onsite rooms. Is adding a couple of thousand more rooms possible? Sure. Adding 10,0000 more rooms? No way.

For perspective, WDW has almost 28,000 separately bookable hotel and timeshare rooms. These are the rooms that Disney owns and operates. This number does not include the more than 500 at Shades of Green, 2,300 at the Swan & Dolphin, 400 at the Four Seasons, and 3,700 at the Downtown Disney hotels. Add it all together and there are 35,000 rooms on WDW property.
I could see this level of growth for Universal from now until MK's 50th.

2014 (17.3 million)
USF: 8.8 million
IOA: 8.5 million

2015 (18.4 million)
USF: Diagon's first full year, Media Lab for GoA, E.T. upgrades (USF: 9.6 million)
IOA: New interactive Raptor Streetmosphere show (IOA: 8.8 million)

2016 (19.8 million)
USF: Fallon D-ticket, Mummy upgrades, Disaster closes for F&F mini-land, upgrades for Superstar Parade and Cinematic Spectacular (USF: 10.2 million)
IOA: Kong E-ticket, totally upgraded Hulk, IOA nighttime show, Phase 1 of Seuss revamp (IOA: 9.6 million)

2017 (21.6 million)
USF: F&F mini-land with E-ticket, Phase 1 of KidZone revamp, T2 upgrades (USF: 10.8 million)
IOA: Upgrades to MSHI, Kong's first full year, Grinch E-ticket (IOA: 10.8 million)

2018 (23.6 million)
USF: KidZone revamp complete, Shrek closes, Rockit upgrades (USF: 11.6 million)
IOA: Doom/Carnage replacement opens - 1 E and 1 D (IOA: 12.0 million)

2019 (25.0 million)
USF: Fear Factor replacement, construction begins for Mystery Plot, Shrek replacement (USF: 12.3 million)
IOA: Jurassic World/Park revamp finishes, Toon Lagoon goes under, DC bulldozed for Potter Phase 3 (IOA: 12.7 million)

2020 (25.6 million)
USF: Horror Makeup updates, Springfield updates. small addition to Diagon (USF: 12.6 million)
IOA: TL revamp complete, flat ride for LC, Poseidon overhaul (IOA: 13.0 million)

2021 (27.6 million)
USF: Mystery Plot expansion opens (USF: 13.4 million)
IOA: TL revamp complete, Potter Phase 3, Poseidon overhaul into dark ride complete (IOA: 14.2 million)
Other: 3rd gate announcement/groundbreaking on October 1st, 2021,

I know it's ambitious for Universal Orlando to nearly double its attendance levels over the course of 10 years, but with these unprecedented levels of expansion, why not?
 

hopemax

Well-Known Member
I imagine most of the attendance drop at DLR can be attributed to the preparations for the 60th. A lot and I mean a lot of attractions were down for refurb and the local audience in So Cal was aware of this and stayed away. I think you will see DLR attendance jump once the 60th festivities kick off.

I'm behind on posts so I don't know if it is mentioned later, but I wanted to mention that Disneyland radically modified their Annual Pass choices starting May 2014 with the elimination of the SoCal AP, except renewals, and large price increases on the remaining passes, which continued in 2015. So that could account for some drop as well. They are actively trying to modify the demographics. But as long as the people who stopped coming were the ones DL wanted to stop coming, it wouldn't be seen as that big of a deal.
 

PhotoDave219

Well-Known Member
Exactly. During the economic downturn Disney invested heavily, making acquisitions and pumping money into things like NGE (MM+), Fantasyland Expansion, and Disney Springs. So now they reap the rewards of that. It's all cyclical. I mean the investments they made may not be the kind of stuff that some may like. But they are investments. Long-term vision investments.

The fact is that the high-expectation/instant-gratification/overly-critical/delusional wing of Disney fandom (a vocal minority) won't be pleased until every penny the company has earned is invested in some new dark rides to preserve some sacred nostalgic "Disney feeling" that the majority of park visitors couldn't care less about.

Things are not perfect at the parks. And I think prudent investments are called for, especially to justify the insane cost of a Disney vacation. But, investments for the sake of "keeping up with Universal" is all kinds of dumb. Especially, since Universal is the one trying to keep up with Disney.

And that's not some Disney vs. Universal quip, I enjoy both and have had an AP for both in the past.

They did make some investments but they seem to be dragging their feet over and over anymore.

As for high standards? I simply hold Disney to the same standards they've had since the beginning… I hold them to their own standard.

I want them to stop looking at the theme parks as a mature business. The operating income growth in the past quarter should be a glaring observation that it's not. The attendance growth in the past 10 years should show it's not. I'd like to see the level of reinvestment that they had in the 90s.
 

PhotoDave219

Well-Known Member
I could see this level of growth for Universal from now until MK's 50th.

2014 (17.3 million)
USF: 8.8 million
IOA: 8.5 million

2015 (18.4 million)
USF: Diagon's first full year, Media Lab for GoA, E.T. upgrades (USF: 9.6 million)
IOA: New interactive Raptor Streetmosphere show (IOA: 8.8 million)

2016 (19.8 million)
USF: Fallon D-ticket, Mummy upgrades, Disaster closes for F&F mini-land, upgrades for Superstar Parade and Cinematic Spectacular (USF: 10.2 million)
IOA: Kong E-ticket, totally upgraded Hulk, IOA nighttime show, Phase 1 of Seuss revamp (IOA: 9.6 million)

2017 (21.6 million)
USF: F&F mini-land with E-ticket, Phase 1 of KidZone revamp, T2 upgrades (USF: 10.8 million)
IOA: Upgrades to MSHI, Kong's first full year, Grinch E-ticket (IOA: 10.8 million)

2018 (23.6 million)
USF: KidZone revamp complete, Shrek closes, Rockit upgrades (USF: 11.6 million)
IOA: Doom/Carnage replacement opens - 1 E and 1 D (IOA: 12.0 million)

2019 (25.0 million)
USF: Fear Factor replacement, construction begins for Mystery Plot, Shrek replacement (USF: 12.3 million)
IOA: Jurassic World/Park revamp finishes, Toon Lagoon goes under, DC bulldozed for Potter Phase 3 (IOA: 12.7 million)

2020 (25.6 million)
USF: Horror Makeup updates, Springfield updates. small addition to Diagon (USF: 12.6 million)
IOA: TL revamp complete, flat ride for LC, Poseidon overhaul (IOA: 13.0 million)

2021 (27.6 million)
USF: Mystery Plot expansion opens (USF: 13.4 million)
IOA: TL revamp complete, Potter Phase 3, Poseidon overhaul into dark ride complete (IOA: 14.2 million)
Other: 3rd gate announcement/groundbreaking on October 1st, 2021,

I know it's ambitious for Universal Orlando to nearly double its attendance levels over the course of 10 years, but with these unprecedented levels of expansion, why not?

Oh great now I can list all the free-agent signing is the Flyers have had since they're part of Comcast and universal… Great!

Will somebody please read me and Vincent LaCaviler & his awful salary?
 

jlsHouston

Well-Known Member
More people have ridden Mermaid 2.5 years than Peter Pan will treat in nearly a decade. Mermaid's queue holds 3,300 people, Pan holds 1,200. Mermaid has an average 22,000 fastpasses per day allocated to the attraction and Peter Pan has around 5,000 fastpasses.

Well they did something right when they designed the queue for Mermaid then.
 

Shaman

Well-Known Member
They did make some investments but they seem to be dragging their feet over and over anymore.

As for high standards? I simply hold Disney to the same standards they've had since the beginning… I hold them to their own standard.

I want them to stop looking at the theme parks as a mature business. The operating income growth in the past quarter should be a glaring observation that it's not. The attendance growth in the past 10 years should show it's not. I'd like to see the level of reinvestment that they had in the 90s.

I agree with everything in your post. The construction time alone is annoying for some of these projects. Accountants and their budget sorcery.

The good thing about a rising Universal is that it helps move Disney away from treating Theme Parks as mature. The bad thing about the crowds is that it gets in the way of justifying major, quick, investments.

(Dave you're not one of the crazies I referenced in my post btw)

Just my opinion. :)
 

PhotoDave219

Well-Known Member
I agree with everything in your post. The construction time alone is annoying for some of these projects. Accountants and their budget sorcery.

The good thing about a rising Universal is that it helps move Disney away from treating Theme Parks as mature. The bad thing about the crowds is that it gets in the way of justifying major, quick, investments.

(Dave you're not one of the crazies I referenced in my post btw)

Just my opinion. :)

They've done an excellent job of Long-term growth (30% in 10 years), only they need to have the infrastructure to handle those kinds of crowds and capacity in secondary parks to handle them.
 
Universal's parking structure is commonly filled to capacity and can't really support additional guests parking there/plus it's shared with S*ittywalk employees that can't really park elsewhere. Their infrastructure is already buckling under the current 15 million, I doubt they'll be able to handle 20 million any time soon. Are people aware that the maximum in park at each park is less than 50,000? (and that's beyond inhuman really, IOA is killing itself with crowds around 35,000). I remember the management team freaking out when the parks hit 45,000 each. More rides isn't going to get Universal what it actually needs for long term growth- additional space within the parks. Sure, they have a few pads left and lots of the derelict film studios, but really they're already reaching the limits of what the parks themselves can accommodate. I hope I'm wrong through, with the water park, the new hotel and the pad that they acquired across the freeway, maybe they can get creative with bridges- just get Orlando to pay for it with the I-4 ultimate toll road garbage. That would actually be awesome for them!
 

Shaman

Well-Known Member
I'm behind on posts so I don't know if it is mentioned later, but I wanted to mention that Disneyland radically modified their Annual Pass choices starting May 2014 with the elimination of the SoCal AP, except renewals, and large price increases on the remaining passes, which continued in 2015. So that could account for some drop as well. They are actively trying to modify the demographics. But as long as the people who stopped coming were the ones DL wanted to stop coming, it wouldn't be seen as that big of a deal.

WDW should probably revisit it's AP offerings as well. Maybe even eliminate the monthly payment option. Not sure what kind of impact that would have....DLR and WDW are different, but those crowds though.
 

wm49rs

A naughty bit o' crumpet
Premium Member
^^^ I'm not really one who looks at the parks like they're a museum. It's a cute old style dark ride that's woefully outdated (even Paris's). For it's time and what the ride's expected to do, it's a truly wonderful attraction just like Mermaid. Maybe DL's will change my mind though once it's been brought up to modern standards. I'm sure SDL's will be impressive too.

^ Yes, I'm sure Disney will go to message boards for their next decisions instead of people who are published in the Library of Congress on the subject. Again, not tooting credentials as much as tooting reality. And people get paid to direct an industry towards growth, be it short or long term (unfortunately short term thinking as taken over everywhere including the hospitality/theme park industries). And yes, telling someone not to invest crazy amounts of capital into a stable product at the top f the marker that has nothing but upside without any interference vs. instead expanding into new markets and shoring up under performing products is usually what I would advise. Doing anything else is just short sided and introduces a load of volatility where none is needed. I'm glad Disney is indeed thinking long term with their strategies for the most part.
Actually, you are....

But the irony of you putting this on an internet message board is palpable....
 
^^ WDW's annual passholders really only effect the parks ability to handle crowds 10 days out of the year. DLR is brought to it's knees with passholders every Sunday.

^ You keep keep right on swinging and ignore the actual discussion
 

Shaman

Well-Known Member
^^ WDW's annual passholders really only effect the parks ability to handle crowds 10 days out of the year.

If true, that's kind of amazing. I would've thought AP/locals had a higher impact, especially on weekends. I mean if you want to talk about an experience killer, some of these crowd levels really dampens the magic. Which is why DHS and AK need more, but in the interim....
 

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