A lower attendance future for WDW?

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Agreed this is likely being war gamed.

Lower crowds equals a better guest experience. That is not arguable.

Now we hear of new experiential options. With the revenue streams they would bring.

Seperate ticket events have always trended higher and I expect they will return at least at the levels they were before.

Park reservations until at least 2023 indicates Disney likes predictable crowd levels which brings predictable overhead costs. That guest surveys are high only reinforces the practice.

Reimagining Annual Passes would be the last domino.

I think we may see a point system implemented similar to DVC points but redeemable for levels of experiences. For example visiting a park during the daytime would require substantially fewer points than a reservation for a Halloween party.

I continue to think the days of showing up any day on a whim with a gold AP are ending.

Unless they offer a limited number of "Platinum" passes. Expect a Club 33 type waitlist.

I know this wouldn't be welcome news to most AP holders but it brings many benefits too.

Namely a much more streamlined guest experience but also many specialty experiences and events available. If you have the necessary points in your account.

Just reading the tea leaves.

Hey...this is pretty good.

Dump the “guest surveys” stuff though. Guest surveys used to involve 5 accountants in a room with name tags.

I bet it’s 10 now

 

[havoc315]

Of course I'm not saying they stay at Pop Century. I'm saying they stay at a deluxe and feel like they're being ripped off because the quality level isn't remotely close to the price level -- although they're actually more likely to stay at the Four Seasons, where the quality level actually is relatively close to the price point.

I think you misunderstood my point about the Riviera. The reason I said it wouldn't work for chasing that market is because it's not an especially nice hotel; it's not even comparable to their older deluxes like the Animal Kingdom Lodge or the Grand Floridian.

We will agree to disagree. I honestly think the Riviera is the nicest hotel on property.

But you continue to miss the point.
Riviera and the other deluxe hotels are aimed at the market that can afford $500+ per night hotels.

The people who are willing to pay $500 for a night at AKL, or $800 for a night at Grand Floridian — that is more than $60 to stay offsite at a Motel 6... it’s more than the $160 to stay at All Star Music.

Almost all of Disney's experiences, including the "deluxe" ones, are really designed towards the middle class,

That’s a pretty distorted definition of middle class. So if the deluxe are for middle class customers, you’re saying the Value and Mods are for sub-middle class?
In which case, you’re saying that the majority of on-site guests are below the middle class???

The median family income in the US, the middle of the middle, is about $70,000. A family earning $70,000 doesn’t routinely spend $5,000 for a week in the Grand Floridian.

Only 18% of households in America earn more than $150,000... and that’s the market that can spend $5000 just on a hotel. And top 18% isn’t middle— it’s far above middle.

Basically, if you can afford to regularly book a deluxe hotel at WDW, you’re already upper

and people who are used to getting an upper class experience for their money know that/can see it. I wasn't implying that poor people like Disney and rich people don't -- the point is that the rich is a much smaller market with many more options. Attempting to cater everything towards them in the hopes of attracting more of their business is a losing proposition for WDW,

I’m talking about catering to people who can afford Animal Kingdom lodge, as opposed to people who bag lunches at Pop century.

unless they dramatically change everything about the way they run the parks and resorts.

 

[MurphyJoe]

There is a $224 plus a day ticket per person that includes lunch and drinks called Discovery Cove across the street from Sea World. It is limited to attendance and includes Dolphin Encounters. How is that going?

Over 20 years at this point so they have to be doing something right.

 

[TrainsOfDisney]

The entire City of New York has only maybe a dozen restaurants at that level.

The city of New York has a dozen AAA five diamond restaurants and 45 four diamond restaurants.

Victoria & Alberts at Grand Floridian is Disney’s only 5 diamond.
Bluezoo and Deep Blue are the only 4 diamond on the list... I didn’t know that Jiko lost their 4 diamond status.

 

[kenny279]

I hope I am not repeating, but I didn't see this anywhere. If I missed, I apologize.

A lot of school systems in the south have adopted a hybrid year round calendar. They go back to school in August and get out in May. To compensate for the shorter summer, there is fall break, mid-winter break in addition to the traditional spring break. Outside of that there are also several long weekends built in.

For those of in easy driving distance those breaks are more attractive times to go rather than summer.

 

[Lilofan]

Over 20 years at this point so they have to be doing something right.

Discovery Cove owned by Sea World has never been known to have record busting revenues but if they are satisfied with just being ok as a boutique park that's on them. WDW doesn't share that view.

 

[UNCgolf]

We will agree to disagree. I honestly think the Riviera is the nicest hotel on property.

But you continue to miss the point.
Riviera and the other deluxe hotels are aimed at the market that can afford $500+ per night hotels.

The people who are willing to pay $500 for a night at AKL, or $800 for a night at Grand Floridian — that is more than $60 to stay offsite at a Motel 6... it’s more than the $160 to stay at All Star Music.




That’s a pretty distorted definition of middle class. So if the deluxe are for middle class customers, you’re saying the Value and Mods are for sub-middle class?
In which case, you’re saying that the majority of on-site guests are below the middle class???

The median family income in the US, the middle of the middle, is about $70,000. A family earning $70,000 doesn’t routinely spend $5,000 for a week in the Grand Floridian.

Only 18% of households in America earn more than $150,000... and that’s the market that can spend $5000 just on a hotel. And top 18% isn’t middle— it’s far above middle.

Basically, if you can afford to regularly book a deluxe hotel at WDW, you’re already upper



I’m talking about catering to people who can afford Animal Kingdom lodge, as opposed to people who bag lunches at Pop century.

You're kind of making my point for me with the numbers breakdown.

The deluxe hotels are priced towards the wealthy, but the service level etc. is middle class. That's the point I've been making all along and why I keep saying Disney would have to overhaul everything about their resorts if they're really chasing a high end market.

They aren't near the level of true high quality resorts -- the Four Seasons Orlando puts every Disney hotel to shame. That's why the wealthy are going to generally look down on Disney resorts; they're not getting their money's worth. The St. Regis here in Atlanta is light years beyond than any of the WDW deluxe resorts in overall quality and it costs less per night (of course that's not a one to one comparison since it's not at a vacation destination, but my point is that Disney hotels are not elite level hotels in any sense of the word). The Riviera is essentially themed like a luxury resort without actually being one in service, amenities, or even construction quality; I know people like it and that's fine but I can't for the life of me understand why. I find almost nothing there worth recommending unless you really love skyliner access.

I'm not sure why we're talking about regular visitors. I think a ton of Disney guests who stay on-site are people who save up for a big vacation. They're not going once (or multiple times) a year; they might go twice in a decade. That's not true of the people on this forum (some of them, at least -- I don't go regularly myself), but I think it's true of the average Disney guest. DVC captures a lot of the regular on-site visitors.

Also, I'm not saying there's anything wrong with the hotels the way they are. The pricing is wrong, but everything else is fine if the price was more commensurate with what you're getting. It just would not make sense for Disney to chase the high end market when they're not offering a high end experience. Just because you charge a lot of money for something doesn't mean it's actually worth the money, and it certainly doesn't mean it's luxury.

 

[WDWTrojan]

They aren't near the level of true high quality resorts -- the Four Seasons Orlando puts every Disney hotel to shame. That's why the wealthy are going to generally look down on Disney resorts; they're not getting their money's worth. The St. Regis here in Atlanta is light years beyond than any of the WDW deluxe resorts in overall quality and it costs less per night (of course that's not a one to one comparison since it's not at a vacation destination, but my point is that Disney hotels are not elite level hotels in any sense of the word). The Riviera is essentially themed like a luxury resort without actually being one in service, amenities, or even construction quality; I know people like it and that's fine but I can't for the life of me understand why. I find almost nothing there worth recommending unless you really love skyliner access.

10000%. The FS Orlando puts every Disney hotel to shame and is the same price, often cheaper. The Waldorf and the new JW are every bit as good as the nicest Disney resort and often half the price. They stopped trying to keep up with the luxe market about 15 years ago and decided to rest on their laurels and name.

 

[Lilofan]

10000%. The FS Orlando puts every Disney hotel to shame and is the same price, often cheaper. The Waldorf and the new JW are every bit as good as the nicest Disney resort and often half the price. They stopped trying to keep up with the luxe market about 15 years ago and decided to rest on their laurels and name.

We've stayed at the Grande Lakes JW/Ritz Carlton Orlando. The guest service, accomodations and food and beverage makes the WDW deluxe resorts look like the local Holiday Inn.

 

[havoc315]

You're kind of making my point for me with the numbers breakdown.

The deluxe hotels are priced towards the wealthy, but the service level etc. is middle class. That's the point I've been making all along and why I keep saying Disney would have to overhaul everything about their resorts if they're really chasing a high end market.

Huh?? So nobody ever stays at the deluxe hotels??
Last I checked, there are plenty of people who book the deluxe hotels. No major overhaul necessary.

I completely agree that they aren’t as nice as $500 hotels elsewhere in most cases, but location-location-location. The luxury is the location for the most part.

They aren't near the level of true high quality resorts -- the Four Seasons Orlando puts every Disney hotel to shame.

Not at all. Pricing is ultimately a function. Of supply and demand. Four Seasons might have more opulent rooms, might have better restaurants, but it doesn’t have the location of Grand Floridian, and therefore can’t demand the same price.

You’re basically saying “nobody would ever pay those overpriced deluxe rooms!”
But people do pay it. Disney has already been massively successful in pushing for bigger spending guests— the prices of deluxe rooms has risen much faster than inflation.
To say “Disney isn’t nice enough to attract bigger spending guests” is contradicted by the trend of the last 10 years, even the last 50, where they gradually have been attracting a higher spending guest.

In 1971, a ticket to Disney World was $3.50. With inflation, today that would be $21.
Even a low wage worker could afford a day at WDW on a regular basis.
Today, a 1-day ticket is $100-$150. Not easy for a minimum wage worker to afford Disney today.

That's why the wealthy are going to generally look down on Disney resorts; they're not getting their money's worth.

I can say unequivocally that’s false. The biggest Disney diehards I know are successful Wall Street execs, lawyers, doctors, in the top 2-3% of earners. They may look down on Pop Century, but they don’t look down at the Roy Disney suite or Victoria and Alberts. They don’t even look down at the Riviera or California Grill, because they are used to spending $5,000 per month for a 800 sf apartment on Central Park West.

The St. Regis here in Atlanta is light years beyond than any of the WDW deluxe resorts in overall quality and it costs less per night (of course that's not a one to one comparison since it's not at a vacation destination, but my point is that Disney hotels are not elite level hotels in any sense of the word). The Riviera is essentially themed like a luxury resort without actually being one in service, amenities, or even construction quality; I know people like it and that's fine but I can't for the life of me understand why. I find almost nothing there worth recommending unless you really love skyliner access.

I'm not sure why we're talking about regular visitors. I think a ton of Disney guests who stay on-site are people who save up for a big vacation. They're not going once (or multiple times) a year; they might go twice in a decade. That's not true of the people on this forum (some of them, at least -- I don't go regularly myself), but I think it's true of the average Disney guest. DVC captures a lot of the regular on-site visitors.

Also, I'm not saying there's anything wrong with the hotels the way they are. The pricing is wrong, but everything else is fine if the price was more commensurate with what you're getting. It just would not make sense for Disney to chase the high end market when they're not offering a high end experience. Just because you charge a lot of money for something doesn't mean it's actually worth the money, and it certainly doesn't mean it's luxury.

 

[havoc315]

The city of New York has a dozen AAA five diamond restaurants and 45 four diamond restaurants.

Victoria & Alberts at Grand Floridian is Disney’s only 5 diamond.
Bluezoo and Deep Blue are the only 4 diamond on the list... I didn’t know that Jiko lost their 4 diamond status.

So I nailed it exactly. NYC has a dozen restaurants on the level of V&A.

There are only 3 5-diamond restaurants in the entire state of Florida, and V&A is one of them.

so claiming V&A isn’t an elite restaurant is simply absurd.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Somebody update me on “Riveria”...I didn’t realize it was world class??

I thought it was a concrete modular timeshare with almost no theming and a square pool on the exact site of a checkin desk for a 1988 built, $49 a night moto-lodge. The first intentionally “cheap” built one in disney’s History....

Must be thinking of the wrong place?

 

[djkidkaz]

Disney might just get that scenario of lower crowds if they decide not to invest in the parks again pretty soon. With Uni opening Epic Universe as well as having Universal Studios, Islands of Adventure, the water park, hotels and nightlife, they are truly going to be a vacation destination for many families. The days of people giving up just one day of their Disney vacation to go see Uni will be long gone, and in their place will be people booking a two or three night stay on Uni property which previously would have been Disney’s money.

if we go back to the last Disney decade when all they added in a 10 year span was Toy Story Mania, Chapek will be thrown out of power due to the losses at the theme park.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

So I nailed it exactly. NYC has a dozen restaurants on the level of V&A.

There are only 3 5-diamond restaurants in the entire state of Florida, and V&A is one of them.

so claiming V&A isn’t an elite restaurant is simply absurd.

Victoria and Alberts is a wonderful restaurant...on the level of most high end urban ones...

What it’s NOT is enough to convert a compound with 40,000 hotel rooms, 6 amusement parks, 60,000 employees, and about 175,000 tourists per day into a “luxury enclave”

There are 40 or so seats each night though...if they ever reopen?

I gotta ask an honest question: do you feel “elite” frequenting wdw?

 

[TrainsOfDisney]

So I nailed it exactly. NYC has a dozen restaurants on the level of V&A.

There are only 3 5-diamond restaurants in the entire state of Florida, and V&A is one of them.

so claiming V&A isn’t an elite restaurant is simply absurd.

I don’t think anyone was claiming it wasn’t. Jiko used to be as well imho but it appears they have fallen a bit.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Disney might just get that scenario of lower crowds if they decide not to invest in the parks again pretty soon. With Uni opening Epic Universe as well as having Universal Studios, Islands of Adventure, the water park, hotels and nightlife, they are truly going to be a vacation destination for many families. The days of people giving up just one day of their Disney vacation to go see Uni will be long gone, and in their place will be people booking a two or three night stay on Uni property which previously would have been Disney’s money.

if we go back to the last Disney decade when all they added in a 10 year span was Toy Story Mania, Chapek will be thrown out of power due to the losses at the theme park.

I see very little chance of substantial new capital investment in wdw for 5 years minimum. It follows the pattern set by Iger and it’s rewarded the shareholders.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I don’t think anyone was claiming it wasn’t. Jiko used to be as well imho but it appears they have fallen a bit.

There are some very good/well regarded restaurants there...it’s part of what made it unique.

But the menu quality and selection are not as diverse as they once were (wonder why? ) and the prices near doubled in 10 years...so are they as good as they once were?

I guess that’s an “argument”...but not a complex one.

One of the more interesting ones was just converted to a dwarf buffet.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

10000%. The FS Orlando puts every Disney hotel to shame and is the same price, often cheaper. The Waldorf and the new JW are every bit as good as the nicest Disney resort and often half the price. They stopped trying to keep up with the luxe market about 15 years ago and decided to rest on their laurels and name.

The four seasons was built to serve a clientele that the Grand Floridian would not.

...no one has to believe me. Carry on.

 

[UNCgolf]

So I nailed it exactly. NYC has a dozen restaurants on the level of V&A.

There are only 3 5-diamond restaurants in the entire state of Florida, and V&A is one of them.

so claiming V&A isn’t an elite restaurant is simply absurd.

I don't think anyone suggested V&A isn't elite. It absolutely is. It's just the only one on property with the possible exception of Takumi Tei.

California Grill is fine, and Flying Fish is better (at least it used to be; heard mixed things recently), but there are dozens and dozens of restaurants just here in Atlanta where I've had meals that were as good or better. They're solid restaurants but not remotely special.

I didn't quote your other post, but you're still missing my point. I was never suggesting nobody stays in deluxe hotel rooms (although I've heard evidence that they struggle to fill them, which is part of the reason they've been adding DVC to deluxes to help cover the overall costs). What I said is that upper class/wealthy people generally don't look at them as a luxury experience or a great value, and so Disney can't possibly subsist if that's the only market they're trying to chase. A number of deluxe rooms are filled by middle class families splurging on one big Disney vacation, or multiple people splitting a room.

Disney needs lower and middle class guests or the whole system falls apart. They're not going to have 50,000 daily visitors who all make 150k+ a year. I don't think they could even attract half that many. The idea that they can just pivot towards mainly attracting high end guests without significantly overhauling their offerings is ludicrous. There are some out there who love Disney, sure, but nowhere near enough to keep WDW afloat.

 

[havoc315]

Victoria and Alberts is a wonderful restaurant...on the level of most high end urban ones...

What it’s NOT is enough to convert a compound with 40,000 hotel rooms, 6 amusement parks, 60,000 employees, and about 175,000 tourists per day into a “luxury enclave”

There are 40 or so seats each night though...if they ever reopen?

I gotta ask an honest question: do you feel “elite” frequenting wdw?

Not talking about a “luxury enclave”...

Such an enclave would only serve about 50 guests per day.

Talking about WDW pushing more towards guests willing to spend extra on a night party ticket, towards guests willing to spend extra for a maxpass, guests willing to spend on a $60 dessert party instead of bagging Oreos from home. Guests willing to spend $500 on a deluxe hotel over the guest who spends $60 on a cheap offsite motel.

And yes, visiting WDW, I feel very lucky. I realize how fortunate I am... that most people can’t afford the deluxe hotels, signature meals, etc. I certainly wouldn’t personally use the word “elite,” but I certainly appreciate it’s more than 80-90% of Americans can afford. So I guess it is pretty elite.