A lower attendance future for WDW?

[aliceismad]

Regarding the comparisons, I would argue that stadiums are getting smaller, in part, because there is less demand. Games are long, interest in traditional sports in waning while younger generations are more interested in alternative sports and active pursuits. Those who love sports are willing to spend, but the number of casual fans is on the decline.

As for movie theaters, people can watch new release movies in the comfort of their homes, so theaters had to up their game to compete with the on-demand culture that is now prevalent in America.

I definitely think how people vacation is continually changing, and I do think Disney is concerned both with their mass model and the demographics of "who is likely to spend the most." It wouldn't surprise me for them to offer more boutique experiences, similar to the DAH and tour experiences. Exclusivity (or the perception of such) is powerful in marketing.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Indeed. And my friend from south Florida is bundled up in a coat if it's 62.

Generators batteries and water are off the shelf at Home Depot when it drops to 55

 

[UNCgolf]

Regarding the comparisons, I would argue that stadiums are getting smaller, in part, because there is less demand. Games are long, interest in traditional sports in waning while younger generations are more interested in alternative sports and active pursuits. Those who love sports are willing to spend, but the number of casual fans is on the decline.

I'm not sure overall interest is really declining that much, but interest in actually attending games in person definitely is. It's a lot easier to watch at home on a big screen TV in comfort with whatever food you want and no bathroom lines than to spend hundreds of dollars on a ticket, parking/transportation, tremendously overpriced stadium food, etc.

I watch a lot of sports and yet have zero interest in attending any games in person.

 

[Minnesota disney fan]

Temperatures are more or less relative, though. I know someone who lives in south Florida and to him anything below 65 degrees is miserable. Also know someone who lives north of Toronto who thinks a 45 degree sunny day is beautiful warm weather and anything above 75 is just too hot to be outside. I personally would like it to be in the high 70s or low 80s year round.

We live in N Mn. and the remark about Toronto is accurate,, LOL.
When the temp hits over 40, I hang clothes out to dry! (yes, I still love to do that
70's is perfect, and anything over 78 is just too hot for me.
Of course, our summers are only 2 weeks long, so ..............there's that

 

[havoc315]

Respectfully, you’re talking about the past. The range is not as broad as this anymore due to choices made.

Where is an on property room $150 these days?
You can barely get a moderate for less than $250...

All-Star Music is about $160 per night this Spring.

And we can respectfully disagree on what “luxury” items are offered. Again...you don’t see lady and the tramp Dooney’s at the lawn club or the pharma Christmas party.

Sure you do. But you certainly don't see this at Walmart:

Mickey and Minnie Mouse Limited Edition Figurine by Arribas Brothers | shopDisney

Mickey has a posey of flowers for his sweetheart Minnie in this dazzling figurine by Arribas Brothers. ''Romance in the Park'' was sculpted from alabaster and each limited edition piece is encrusted with over 30,000 hand-set high quality crystal stones.

www.shopdisney.com

But I’d like to live where you do...it sounds fun and happy

Regarding the comparisons, I would argue that stadiums are getting smaller, in part, because there is less demand. Games are long, interest in traditional sports in waning while younger generations are more interested in alternative sports and active pursuits. Those who love sports are willing to spend, but the number of casual fans is on the decline.

As for movie theaters, people can watch new release movies in the comfort of their homes, so theaters had to up their game to compete with the on-demand culture that is now prevalent in America.

But isn’t that true of theme parks as well.
I can put on a VR headset and get an experience much like Star Tours.
I can see the sights and sounds of Europe on YouTube, don’t need to visit a fake version at Epcot.
The local arcade offers virtual roller coasters.
I can see Hamilton with the original Broadway cast on demand on Disney+... that sounds better than a second rate Beauty and the Beast performance.


While demand for WDW remains strong, it’s a different type of demand than 20 years ago.

I definitely think how people vacation is continually changing, and I do think Disney is concerned both with their mass model and the demographics of "who is likely to spend the most." It wouldn't surprise me for them to offer more boutique experiences, similar to the DAH and tour experiences. Exclusivity (or the perception of such) is powerful in marketing.

 

[plawren2]

When I say "North East", I'm including everything from Western NY and southern ON to the states bordering New England like PA.

October weather is hit or miss for the region, especially latter in the month. Certainly more desirable to go on vacation then vs the summer months when it's already hot and humid at home.

Great for singles, couples without kids and retired folks, but the typical K12 school calendar (that for majority does not include a break in October) will continue to dominate the seasonal trends of WDW crowds

 

[UNCgolf]

But isn’t that true of theme parks as well.
I can put on a VR headset and get an experience much like Star Tours.
I can see the sights and sounds of Europe on YouTube, don’t need to visit a fake version at Epcot.
The local arcade offers virtual roller coasters.
I can see Hamilton with the original Broadway cast on demand on Disney+... that sounds better than a second rate Beauty and the Beast performance.


While demand for WDW remains strong, it’s a different type of demand than 20 years ago.

Watching a video of something isn't the same as inhabiting a physical space, so I don't think the Youtube thing is that much of an issue. Otherwise it applies to literally every ride at Disney, as well as to people visiting actual European nations or anywhere beyond where they live.

I do think it's a problem with screen-based rides, though. Even if they have a physical motion component, they lack that sense of inhabiting a physical space which makes them feel like a lesser experience (at least to me). Anything with AAs and physical sets is almost automatically better than something that relies on screens if the experience is relatively similar otherwise.

 

[GimpYancIent]

Great for singles, couples without kids and retired folks, but the typical K12 school calendar (that for majority does not include a break in October) will continue to dominate the seasonal trends of WDW crowds

Attempts to control attendance w pricing will reduce potential attendance numbers in many ways. A segment of the population will simply be priced out as other amusement venues cost way less, work requirements, weather and absolutely the school year schedules. To simply hike prices during the time frames most guests can visit, well in the long run, will take away any interest to go period.

 

[Sir_Cliff]

And part of that is driving expectations as well.... A fine line where you don't want to scare off guests, but you may also want them to come to WDW with higher spending expectations. (Come to Disney with an expectation for luxurious overpriced $500 dinner, not with expectation for an overpriced $20 hamburger).

The problem with this is that they aren't providing a premium, luxurious experience to fulfil such expectations. Is the sort of person willing to drop $500 on a nice meal likely to find anything at WDW that measures up to what they could find in most premium travel destinations? Similarly, will they find the standard of accommodation or ammenities that they would except for the same price anywhere else?

This is the odd part of the current strategy for me. The idea doesn't seem to be elevating the experience with top class hotels, premium restaurants, etc. It's more about charging guests more to avoid the unpleasant aspects of visiting WDW such as growing crowds and increasingly shorter opening hours. A move to a premium experience only seems to be happening in terms of pricing.

 

[plawren2]

Attempts to control attendance w pricing will reduce potential attendance numbers in many ways. A segment of the population will simply be priced out as other amusement venues cost way less, work requirements, weather and absolutely the school year schedules. To simply hike prices during the time frames most guests can visit, well in the long run, will take away any interest to go period.

its not a new strategy by Disney

 

[HauntedPirate]

Absolutely. Then introduce Mickey’s Very Patriotic Independence Day Party from Memorial Day through July 31. Bam. Crowds return.

They can shelf plans for Mickey’s Hippity-Hoppity Easter Party since spring crowds are already crazy.

Oh, they are already renaming “Mickey’s Summer-tastic Backyard Grilling Festival” before it even was announced? Shame...

 

[ToTBellHop]

Oh, they are already renaming “Mickey’s Summer-tastic Backyard Grilling Festival” before it even was announced? Shame...

Didn’t that used to be at Fort Wilderness for people who couldn’t get into Hoop-de-Doo?

 

[HauntedPirate]

They used to provide, consistent, impressive profits from parks while still providing exceptional overall value. But that’s not good enough for bigtime. So they have to take chances with the value of their product for immediate payouts.

Wasn’t that from one of Iger’s index cards... err, I mean, his blockbuster first book about leadership? I think it was index card 2, side 2 - “Charge more, make more”

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Great for singles, couples without kids and retired folks, but the typical K12 school calendar (that for majority does not include a break in October) will continue to dominate the seasonal trends of WDW crowds

The point being made is that the “seasonal” trends have gravitated away from the school calendar.
They absolutely have.

The problem with this is that they aren't providing a premium, luxurious experience to fulfil such expectations. Is the sort of person willing to drop $500 on a nice meal likely to find anything at WDW that measures up to what they could find in most premium travel destinations? Similarly, will they find the standard of accommodation or ammenities that they would except for the same price anywhere else?

This is the odd part of the current strategy for me. The idea doesn't seem to be elevating the experience with top class hotels, premium restaurants, etc. It's more about charging guests more to avoid the unpleasant aspects of visiting WDW such as growing crowds and increasingly shorter opening hours. A move to a premium experience only seems to be happening in terms of pricing.

Bingo.

Here’s a problem with the “luxury” idea: Disney doesn’t want to pay the costs to provide them. They never have.

Why? Because the place was based on middle class expectations. They can get away with “less” there.

But you price them out...and the rubber meets the road.

They will not have it both ways. People of means aren’t gonna pay $80 for chef Mickey’s and a cleaning every third day. They also won’t tolerate “no” answers...which was the motto of Disney’s “concierge”.

It’s not built that way...they don’t invest in the luxuries or the staff.

People are always very proud of the money they spend in Orlando...which blocks them from stepping back and analyzing what the money is being thrown at.

I’m done..:I’ve seen this movie before

 

[HauntedPirate]

Didn’t that used to be at Fort Wilderness for people who couldn’t get into Hoop-de-Doo?

I think you’re right. Came with lower priced beer, too, none of that fancy $11 craft beer at Epcot, you’d get $5 Bud Light’s all day long.

 

[plawren2]

The point being made is that the “seasonal” trends have gravitated away from the school calendar.
They absolutely have.



Bingo.

Here’s a problem with the “luxury” idea: Disney doesn’t want to pay the costs to provide them. They never have.

Why? Because the place was based on middle class expectations. They can get away with “less” there.

But you price them out...and the rubber meets the road.

They will not have it both ways. People of means aren’t gonna pay $80 for chef Mickey’s and a cleaning every third day. They also won’t tolerate “no” answers...which was the motto of Disney’s “concierge”.

It’s not built that way...they don’t invest in the luxuries or the staff.

People are always very proud of the money they spend in Orlando...which blocks them stepping back and analyzing what the money is being thrown at.

I’m done..:I’ve seen this movie before

Yes number of visitors and peak crowd dates have moved through out the calendar in recent decades (due in part events and pricing by WDW) BUT the dominate ones still exist and driven by the school calendar.

 

[GimpYancIent]

Wasn’t that from one of Iger’s index cards... err, I mean, his blockbuster first book about leadership? I think it was index card 2, side 2 - “Charge more, make more”

Hmmmmm sounds a lot like something like Gordon Gecko (movie Wall Street) would say "Greed Is Good".

 

[HauntedPirate]

Hmmmmm sounds a lot like something like Gordon Gecko (movie Wall Street) would say "Greed Is Good".

Hey, no fair stealing from Iger before his second “book” gets published!

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Yes number of visitors and peak crowd dates have moved through out the calendar in recent decades (due in part events and pricing by WDW) BUT the dominate ones still exist and driven by the school calendar.

Jersey week, spring break (which most k-12 schools didn’t have all that long ago) and Christmas....but the summer is not nearly the crush it was.

Don’t believe me...i’m rarely there.

 

[havoc315]

The problem with this is that they aren't providing a premium, luxurious experience to fulfil such expectations. Is the sort of person willing to drop $500 on a nice meal likely to find anything at WDW that measures up to what they could find in most premium travel destinations? Similarly, will they find the standard of accommodation or ammenities that they would except for the same price anywhere else?

Clearly, you haven't been to Victoria and Alberts. Or Takumi Tei. Or stayed in a Grand Floridian Grand Suite.

Now, those things are even more expensive at Disney. But they would be expensive luxury items anywhere.

This is the odd part of the current strategy for me. The idea doesn't seem to be elevating the experience with top class hotels, premium restaurants, etc. It's more about charging guests more to avoid the unpleasant aspects of visiting WDW such as growing crowds and increasingly shorter opening hours. A move to a premium experience only seems to be happening in terms of pricing.

But avoiding the "unpleasantness" is part of an elevated experience. Which is why they charge so much for "VIP tours."
Guests will pay more for shorter lines, they will pay more for additional operating hours. To bring back the context of another thread, we may be headed to the day where you have to buy separate day and night tickets.