A lower attendance future for WDW?

[UNCgolf]

Clearly, you haven't been to Victoria and Alberts. Or Takumi Tei. Or stayed in a Grand Floridian Grand Suite.

Now, those things are even more expensive at Disney. But they would be expensive luxury items anywhere.

Those offerings are few and far between, though. There is a miniscule number of truly luxury experiences at WDW.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Clearly, you haven't been to Victoria and Alberts. Or Takumi Tei. Or stayed in a Grand Floridian Grand Suite.

Now, those things are even more expensive at Disney. But they would be expensive luxury items anywhere.



But avoiding the "unpleasantness" is part of an elevated experience. Which is why they charge so much for "VIP tours."
Guests will pay more for shorter lines, they will pay more for additional operating hours. To bring back the context of another thread, we may be headed to the day where you have to buy separate day and night tickets.

Ok...you’re WAY too proud of the product being offered.

“Clearly you haven’t been to Victoria and alberts...”

About 5 times...and I’ve stayed in a few of the most expensive suites.

Disney is not providing what you’re under the impression they are. It’s just high priced.

I won’t even touch the “vip tours”

They are amusement parks. Nice ones...the best...but that’s the glass ceiling.

I think we both are done here. They’re not selling what you think they are. One of the reasons they sold and allowed the four seasons to be built.

 

[Sir_Cliff]

Ok...you’re WAY too proud of the product being offered.

“Clearly you haven’t been to Victoria and alberts...”

About 5 times...and I’ve stayed in a few of the most expensive suites.

Disney is not providing what you’re under the impression they are. It’s just high priced.

I won’t even touch the “vip tours”

They are amusement parks. Nice ones...the best...but that’s the glass ceiling.

I think we both are done here. They’re not selling what you think they are. One of the reasons they sold and allowed the four seasons to be built.

I agree with all of this and @UNCgolf's point, though I admit I haven't stayed in the Grand Suite.

A central issue you mention here that also makes me sceptical of this pitch to the higher income earners is that theme parks have always been squarely middle brow entertainment. I think Iger's disinterest in them in part comes from the fact that they're not the kind of place people like him and his family would ever spend their vacations. While the prices seem to suggest they want to change this, the product really doesn't.

Sure there will always be some market from big spenders, and certainly enough to sustain a handful of premium suites across the property along with a few premium restaurants. I have my doubts, though, that Walt Disney World is ever going to become a Floridian Monaco just by pricing out lower and middle income earners.

 

[havoc315]

Those offerings are few and far between, though. There is a miniscule number of truly luxury experiences at WDW.

There is a miniscule number of people with the resources and interests in owning gold plated yachts and eating caviar at every meal.

There is a wide spectrum, the market for extreme luxury is small. And by its nature, luxury is exclusive. You aren't going to have a Victoria & Alberts restaurant that serves thousands of guests.

But as I said -- It's a wide spectrum of "luxury." There are many more upscale experiences that many people would scoff at. Your purely working class guest doesn't often pay $60+ per person for dinner someplace like California Grill.
While you can debate whether The Contemporary or Beach Club are "luxurious," it's unquestionable that the pricing is upper-class pricing. (I'd say they are indeed luxurious -- by way of their location. Being located a brief stroll from the Most Magical Place on Earth is a luxury that people are willing to pay $500+ per night for).

Nobody is suggesting Disney is trying to cater to "Lifestyles of the Rich and Famous" -- that's a very very small market.
But Disney may be concentrating more on catering to the guest who shops at Bloomingdales over the guest who shops at Walmart.
Concentrating on guests who are lawyers, doctors, professionals, with 6 figure incomes (and a 6 figure income doesn't translate to gold plated yacht), and moving focus away from the guests who pack peanut butter and jelly sandwiches because the QS at Disney is so expensive.

 

[Jrb1979]

There is a miniscule number of people with the resources and interests in owning gold plated yachts and eating caviar at every meal.

There is a wide spectrum, the market for extreme luxury is small. And by its nature, luxury is exclusive. You aren't going to have a Victoria & Alberts restaurant that serves thousands of guests.

But as I said -- It's a wide spectrum of "luxury." There are many more upscale experiences that many people would scoff at. Your purely working class guest doesn't often pay $60+ per person for dinner someplace like California Grill.
While you can debate whether The Contemporary or Beach Club are "luxurious," it's unquestionable that the pricing is upper-class pricing. (I'd say they are indeed luxurious -- by way of their location. Being located a brief stroll from the Most Magical Place on Earth is a luxury that people are willing to pay $500+ per night for).

Nobody is suggesting Disney is trying to cater to "Lifestyles of the Rich and Famous" -- that's a very very small market.
But Disney may be concentrating more on catering to the guest who shops at Bloomingdales over the guest who shops at Walmart.
Concentrating on guests who are lawyers, doctors, professionals, with 6 figure incomes (and a 6 figure income doesn't translate to gold plated yacht), and moving focus away from the guests who pack peanut butter and jelly sandwiches because the QS at Disney is so expensive.

I agree completely. Why else would they stop AP sales and get rid of APs in California? If you think it has anything to do with Covid I have a bridge to sell you. AP holders are the lowest spending people at the parks so of course they want to limit them

 

[havoc315]

Ok...you’re WAY too proud of the product being offered.

“Clearly you haven’t been to Victoria and alberts...”

About 5 times...and I’ve stayed in a few of the most expensive suites.

Disney is not providing what you’re under the impression they are. It’s just high priced.

So you don't believe Victoria and Alberts serves a premium luxury meal? Then why did you go 5 times at a price of around $200 per dinner, if it wasn't an impressive meal?
Of course it's over-priced. But really, being over-priced is the definition of a luxury meal.
The tasting menu at Per Se is $325 per person -- That's certainly over-priced too.

Your statement was that there was NOTHING at Disney that could measure up to premium locations.

Here is the description of V&A from wiki:

Victoria & Albert's has received AAA's Five Diamond Award every year since 2000 and currently is the one of three restaurants in Florida to receive the award.[4][6][8][9] Victoria & Albert's is also ranked as the number 2 fine dining restaurant in the United States by TripAdvisor, behind only Daniel in New York City.[5] In February 2018, it received the prestigious Forbes Travel Guide Five-Star Award and is currently the only restaurant in the state of Florida to receive both the AAA Five Diamond and Forbes Travel Guide Five-Star award

[On a side note, I had the cassoulet from Daniel two weeks ago, it was incredible]

That certainly sounds like a premium dining location. And not sure why you would have paid around hundreds of dollars per meal, five times, if you thought it was a glorified Applebees.

 

[havoc315]

I agree completely. Why else would they stop AP sales and get rid of APs in California? If you think it has anything to do with Covid I have a bridge to sell you. AP holders are the lowest spending people at the parks so of course they want to limit them

Maybe. But more likely, that's purely a limited attendance issue. I expect APs to return to WDW. Though I wouldn't be surprised to see some modifications, pushing their use more and more to lower attendance times of year.

 

[Jrb1979]

Maybe. But more likely, that's purely a limited attendance issue. I expect APs to return to WDW. Though I wouldn't be surprised to see some modifications, pushing their use more and more to lower attendance times of year.

Pay more get less.

 

[ppete1975]

more people not less. too many people put off vacations.. little billy and jenny havent been able to go for a year and we missed out on pics of them.. plus pent up demand... youre going to see massive crowds for years.
also covid taught people that they shouldnt put off things, everything could change tomorrow.. so run up the credit card and go now

 

[CosmicRays]

Clearly, you haven't been to Victoria and Alberts. Or Takumi Tei. Or stayed in a Grand Floridian Grand Suite.

Now, those things are even more expensive at Disney. But they would be expensive luxury items anywhere.



But avoiding the "unpleasantness" is part of an elevated experience. Which is why they charge so much for "VIP tours."
Guests will pay more for shorter lines, they will pay more for additional operating hours. To bring back the context of another thread, we may be headed to the day where you have to buy separate day and night tickets.

Me and my wife went to Takumi Tie for her birthday in February of last year before the craziness started and it was our favorite meal we have ever had.

 

[UNCgolf]

There is a miniscule number of people with the resources and interests in owning gold plated yachts and eating caviar at every meal.

There is a wide spectrum, the market for extreme luxury is small. And by its nature, luxury is exclusive. You aren't going to have a Victoria & Alberts restaurant that serves thousands of guests.

But as I said -- It's a wide spectrum of "luxury." There are many more upscale experiences that many people would scoff at. Your purely working class guest doesn't often pay $60+ per person for dinner someplace like California Grill.
While you can debate whether The Contemporary or Beach Club are "luxurious," it's unquestionable that the pricing is upper-class pricing. (I'd say they are indeed luxurious -- by way of their location. Being located a brief stroll from the Most Magical Place on Earth is a luxury that people are willing to pay $500+ per night for).

Nobody is suggesting Disney is trying to cater to "Lifestyles of the Rich and Famous" -- that's a very very small market.
But Disney may be concentrating more on catering to the guest who shops at Bloomingdales over the guest who shops at Walmart.
Concentrating on guests who are lawyers, doctors, professionals, with 6 figure incomes (and a 6 figure income doesn't translate to gold plated yacht), and moving focus away from the guests who pack peanut butter and jelly sandwiches because the QS at Disney is so expensive.

Yeah, but restaurants like California Grill aren't comparable to gold plated yachts and caviar at every meal. You can eat at restaurants that are better at any major city in the country, and in a lot of smaller locations as well -- and often for less money. Takumi Tei and Victoria & Albert's are a step above (not as sure about Takumi Tei but that's certainly the intent), but that's only two restaurants on the whole property and they're still not gold plated yacht level.

Speaking as one of the people you described (I'm an attorney at a major firm), I don't have many colleagues who look at WDW as somewhere worth spending money. It's somewhere they might take their kids a couple of times, but is mainly considered a place that overcharges and underdelivers -- and I generally agree. I'm not sure I'd visit WDW if not for nostalgia from how good it used to be, and I still don't go regularly. Things are not going to go well for Disney if that's the market they're chasing without significantly increasing their service levels, food quality, etc. and building hotels like the Riviera is definitely not going to do that.

 

[havoc315]

Yeah, but restaurants like California Grill aren't comparable to gold plated yachts and caviar at every meal. You can eat at restaurants that are better at any major city in the country, and in a lot of smaller locations as well -- and often for less money. Takumi Tei and Victoria & Albert's are a step above (not as sure about Takumi Tei but that's certainly the intent), but that's only two restaurants on the whole property and they're still not gold plated yacht level.

That's more "gold plated restaurants" then you will find in many smaller cities in the US!
The entire City of New York has only maybe a dozen restaurants at that level.

Yes, we know Disney has premium pricing. That's at all levels. Their popcorn is more than popcorn you can buy in any city in America.

My point is -- the "super luxury" is a teeny tiny market. If Disney was only catering to the "super luxury market," then their attendance would be about 100 people per day.

You're confusing my statement, "they are going for higher spending guests".. jumping from there to caviar and yachts. There are literally millions of more affluent Americans, willing to spend more than an All Star resort and chicken nuggets... It's not a choice between chicken nuggets and caviar. There is a whole world in between.

Speaking as one of the people you described (I'm an attorney at a major firm), I don't have many colleagues who look at WDW as somewhere worth spending money.

I'm an attorney, my firm is small. I live in 1 of the most affluent suburbs in America... my colleagues and neighbors do spend lots of money when they go to Disney. They also spend money in Europe, on cruises, on skiing in Vail, etc.
So you're saying the senior partner of the firm, earning $500,000+ per year, stays at Pop Century when he brings his family to Disney?

It's somewhere they might take their kids a couple of times, but is mainly considered a place that overcharges and underdelivers -- and I generally agree.

You get that sentiment across the board. That has nothing to do with wealth. There are working class people who believe Disney over-charges and under-delivers. There are working class people who love it. There are wealthy people who are Disney diehards, and there are wealthy people who scoff at Disney. It would be a totally untrue generalization to say that poor people love Disney and rich people hate it.

I'm not sure I'd visit WDW if not for nostalgia from how good it used to be, and I still don't go regularly. Things are not going to go well for Disney if that's the market they're chasing without significantly increasing their service levels, food quality, etc. and building hotels like the Riviera is definitely not going to do that.

Riviera got my money, and I'm accused of liking the finer things. And that's also the path Disney has been moving towards. They haven't built a "value" property in almost 20 years. Their newest properties have been the deluxe Riviera and the "boutique" star cruiser hotel. They have been added more high priced restaurants like Takumi Tei. And they have been offering guests the opportunity to purchase shorter lines (through VIP tours, party tickets, FPs for purchase, etc).
So they have been increasing all those things -- You just have to pay for it. The guests most likely to complain are those unwilling to pay for the higher level of service and quality. They complain about the regular lines getting worse, about the regular hours being reduced, etc.

 

[WDWTrojan]

What a bunch of crap...

They want higher attendance, higher prices, and lower employees/overhead

They float this “luxury, lower crowd” nonsense to run interference for jacking prices.

Disney parks are mass destinations...not luxury. It’s not a country club.

There's something to this, as they let Disneyland become basically a ghost town in the summer of 2019 when SWGE opened and nobody showed. Instead of unblocking lower-tier passes, they relied almost exclusively on day guests who were paying for tickets and spending more per guest.

 

[the.dreamfinder]

Nobody is suggesting Disney is trying to cater to "Lifestyles of the Rich and Famous" -- that's a very very small market.

 

[UNCgolf]

I'm an attorney, my firm is small. I live in 1 of the most affluent suburbs in America... my colleagues and neighbors do spend lots of money when they go to Disney. They also spend money in Europe, on cruises, on skiing in Vail, etc.
So you're saying the senior partner of the firm, earning $500,000+ per year, stays at Pop Century when he brings his family to Disney?



Riviera got my money, and I'm accused of liking the finer things. And that's also the path Disney has been moving towards. They haven't built a "value" property in almost 20 years. Their newest properties have been the deluxe Riviera and the "boutique" star cruiser hotel. They have been added more high priced restaurants like Takumi Tei. And they have been offering guests the opportunity to purchase shorter lines (through VIP tours, party tickets, FPs for purchase, etc).
So they have been increasing all those things -- You just have to pay for it. The guests most likely to complain are those unwilling to pay for the higher level of service and quality. They complain about the regular lines getting worse, about the regular hours being reduced, etc.

Of course I'm not saying they stay at Pop Century. I'm saying they stay at a deluxe and feel like they're being ripped off because the quality level isn't remotely close to the price level -- although they're actually more likely to stay at the Four Seasons, where the quality level actually is relatively close to the price point.

I think you misunderstood my point about the Riviera. The reason I said it wouldn't work for chasing that market is because it's not a luxury hotel; it's not even as good overall as some of their older deluxes like the Animal Kingdom Lodge or the Grand Floridian. I think they were trying to build something akin to the Four Seasons Orlando and instead built the downtown Hilton in any medium-large city. It's just a bland, generic hotel -- it's nice enough, but it's barely worth half the price they're charging for it.

Almost all of Disney's experiences, including the "deluxe" ones, are really designed towards the middle class, and people who are used to getting an upper class experience for their money know that/can see it. I wasn't implying that poor people like Disney and rich people don't -- the point is that the rich is a much smaller market with many more options. Attempting to cater everything towards them in the hopes of attracting more of their business is a losing proposition for WDW, unless they dramatically change everything about the way they run the parks and resorts.

 

[jt04]

I was struck by the recent article about the possibility of an Epcot hotel:

"an in-park EPCOT boutique hotel may well fit in with Disney's post-COVID plans for lower attendance, offset with higher spending guests."

And it made me consider whether this is part of the soft-reset we are seeing during this Covid re-opening transition. It would seem counter-intuitive at first -- Why would you ever intentionally work towards lower attendance?
Sure, higher spending per guest makes sense -- but wouldn't you want ever increasing attendance AND ever increasing guest spending?

But then I thought about trends over the last 30 years. From the 1960's-1980's, sports stadiums kept getting bigger and bigger, the goal of sustaining bigger and bigger crowds. But then something happened with the newer generation of stadiums: Starting with Camden Yards in 1992, they starting going retro with the stadiums. Smaller more intimate stadiums started replacing the mega stadiums. Charge more per ticket, offer more luxury boxes, more premium seating, but cut back on the "cheap seats." Here in New York, 42,000 seat Citi Field replaced 45,000 seat Shea Stadium. Old Yankee Stadium could set 57,000, the newer stadium only 54,000.
Movie theaters have seen this trend on an even greater degree -- I grew up in the 80's, the era of the mega plex... bigger and bigger screens, with as many seats crammed in as possible.
But now, movie theaters have moved towards more luxurious seating - wide reclining seats, far lower capacity per theater.

In the end, WDW theme park guest capacity hasn't changed much in the last 20 years. In fact, many of the best and newest attractions have lower capacity than the attractions they replaced.

Some of Disney's actions suggest they may be perfectly happy accepting lower attendance, to the extent it allows them to increase guest spending. For example, the announced Early Theme Park Entry: In the old days of EMH, off-site guests could still get equal footing with onsite guests for rope drop, except at that morning's EMH park. Now, off-site guests will have a major rope drop disadvantage at all parks. Might that reduce off-site guests?
Off-site guests are FAR less profitable to Disney than on-site guests, not even close.

Similarly, lower attendance --> reduced lines --> greater guest satisfaction --> can charge more.

But like in the 80's, movie theaters were getting bigger and adding more seats, Disney in the 90's was building up "value" hotel capacity. Now, they are building an ultra expensive Starcruiser hotel. And according to this rumor, what would be an expensive boutique Epcot hotel.

With the slow return of entertainment, some of which appears gone forever. Slow return of APs. etc. Is Disney transitioning to a lower attendance future?

Agreed this is likely being war gamed.

Lower crowds equals a better guest experience. That is not arguable.

Now we hear of new experiential options. With the revenue streams they would bring.

Seperate ticket events have always trended higher and I expect they will return at least at the levels they were before.

Park reservations until at least 2023 indicates Disney likes predictable crowd levels which brings predictable overhead costs. That guest surveys are high only reinforces the practice.

Reimagining Annual Passes would be the last domino.

I think we may see a point system implemented similar to DVC points but redeemable for levels of experiences. For example visiting a park during the daytime would require substantially fewer points than a reservation for a Halloween party.

I continue to think the days of showing up any day on a whim with a gold AP are ending.

Unless they offer a limited number of "Platinum" passes. Expect a Club 33 type waitlist.

I know this wouldn't be welcome news to most AP holders but it brings many benefits too.

Namely a much more streamlined guest experience but also many specialty experiences and events available. If you have the necessary points in your account.

Just reading the tea leaves.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

There's something to this, as they let Disneyland become basically a ghost town in the summer of 2019 when SWGE opened and nobody showed. Instead of unblocking lower-tier passes, they relied almost exclusively on day guests who were paying for tickets and spending more per guest.

Yes...”retraining the lab animals”

They were resetting expectations...the culprit that time appears to be the elimination or at a minimum severe restructuring of annual passes at Disneyland.

...and sure enough.

Every time they talk about “flipping the luxury switch” in Orlando...it’s the same:
Letting the existing clientele know that the prices are about to get real (....again)

Not a psychological deep dive here.

 

["El Gran Magnifico"]

My vote goes for surge pricing. That allows Disney to move and control the herd a bit better. And I don't think we'll see anything discounted. Regular price and surge. Want to order a Guinness at 1pm on Tuesday at R&C- then $9. Want that same Guinness at the Rose and Crown on a Saturday Night at 6pm - $12.50

Now for somebody who really enjoys a Guinness - then they won't be dissuaded. But combine that with the cost of a Mickey Pretzel, along with all Food and Beverage pricing, possibly merchandise - then you start to change behavior when a visit on a Tuesday is $55 cheaper for a family than it is on a Saturday.

 

[Lilofan]

Agreed this is likely being war gamed.

Lower crowds equals a better guest experience. That is not arguable.

Now we hear of new experiential options. With the revenue streams they would bring.

Seperate ticket events have always trended higher and I expect they will return at least at the levels they were before.

Park reservations until at least 2023 indicates Disney likes predictable crowd levels which brings predictable overhead costs. That guest surveys are high only reinforces the practice.

Reimagining Annual Passes would be the last domino.

I think we may see a point system implemented similar to DVC points but redeemable for levels of experiences. For example visiting a park during the daytime would require substantially fewer points than a reservation for a Halloween party.

I continue to think the days of showing up any day on a whim with a gold AP are ending.

Unless they offer a limited number of "Platinum" passes. Expect a Club 33 type waitlist.

I know this wouldn't be welcome news to most AP holders but it brings many benefits too.

Namely a much more streamlined guest experience but also many specialty experiences and events available. If you have the necessary points in your account.

Just reading the tea leaves.

There is a $224 plus a day ticket per person that includes lunch and drinks called Discovery Cove across the street from Sea World. It is limited to attendance and includes Dolphin Encounters. How is that going?

 

[jt04]

There is a $224 plus a day ticket per person that includes lunch and drinks called Discovery Cove across the street from Sea World. It is limited to attendance and includes Dolphin Encounters. How is that going?

I am not sure but it has lasted many years.

Any new Disney experiences could run the spectrum of price points. From the new Star Wars hotel to something as simple as 'After Hours' tickets with limited attractions open and free snacks and the cool factor of having the park seem guest free. Skies the limit.