Lightning Lane at Walt Disney World

[C33Mom]

I think you and @Touchdown have good points here, let me interject a few random thoughts as the caffeine hasn't hit me yet.

1. Would Disney have the data of the following:
   1. People who have done the VIP tour and wouldn't again because of the cost?
   2. People who may have inquired about the VIP tour but passed on it because of the cost?
   3. People who have purchased G+ or LLMP who have higher spend profiles (club level, deluxe stays, high income, large ticket packages, high spend in merch/dining, frequent visitors) that have responded unfavorably to the current system?

If Disney does have this information, could Disney be considering that there is a untapped market for a middle option between LLMP and VIP where they weren't converting LLMP to VIP?

There may be a Goldie Locks price point where they would convert LLMP to this new pass but also not cannibalize VIP sales but also not make it insanely popular. Remember how they thought G+ would only be purchased by 25% of guests prior to launch? Is this an evolution to this?

I mostly fall into group 3 (we might be group 2, but technically we don’t do VIP because my husband doesn’t want a Disney CM with us all day, though I suspect we’d do it at least once a trip if it was $1-2k instead of $4k)— but we definitely fall into the “happy to spend much more money to make the day less stressful” however the current system still requires you to wake at 7AM if you want to ride Cosmic Rewind and to get up and hit the parks early if you want to get LLMP to work well…and you can’t just approach the rides in the most convenient manner, you’re at the mercy of LL availability. We visited with the new system in August when crowds were manageable and it worked OK, but we’ve already cut our Thanksgiving trip from 8 days to 5 days and we’re considering cutting it down further because I doubt LLMP will be great with late Nov crowds.

Responding to @lentesta’s original point, I think there are non-trivial expenses (cast member salary, benefits, training—but also the extra golf carts, vehicles, insurance, logistical background expenses) in VIP, and if they could get the same amount per person for an express pass, the margins would be far higher— so I’m not sure they care about cannibalizing VIP? Also, Disney is already testing out an even more VIP experience (not sure if it’s at WDW or only DLR), so they could keep plussing VIP, double the cost, and then intentionally “cannibalize” the low end VIP clientele.

Finally, thinking about capacity, I think if the new pass was unlimited rides (or even once per attraction), and all or nothing for length of stay— lots of people would buy it to have it but wouldn’t actually ride more than 5-10 rides a day across all parks. I think many of the kind of people who buy a $500/person express pass just for convenience might not actually be park warriors trying to maximize rides... and if you require length of stay it’s even harder to keep up that pace.

 

[wdisney9000]

There's definitely guests willing to pay the higher prices for services like this but at the same time, I'm sure Disney is well aware of the articles online in regards to families going into debt to pay for a Disney vacation.

It's an interesting play if they do announce more higher price services to make an already expensive vacation less stresfull, but again, at more cost to the guest.

 

[TheMaxRebo]

I mostly fall into group 3 (we might be group 2, but technically we don’t do VIP because my husband doesn’t want a Disney CM with us all day, though I suspect we’d do it at least once a trip if it was $1-2k instead of $4k)— but we definitely fall into the “happy to spend much more money to make the day less stressful” however the current system still requires you to wake at 7AM if you want to ride Cosmic Rewind and to get up and hit the parks early if you want to get LLMP to work well…and you can’t just approach the rides in the most convenient manner, you’re at the mercy of LL availability. We visited with the new system in August when crowds were manageable and it worked OK, but we’ve already cut our Thanksgiving trip from 8 days to 5 days and we’re considering cutting it down further because I doubt LLMP will be great with late Nov crowds.

Responding to @lentesta’s original point, I think there are non-trivial expenses (cast member salary, benefits, training—but also the extra golf carts, vehicles, insurance, logistical background expenses) in VIP, and if they could get the same amount per person for an express pass, the margins would be far higher— so I’m not sure they care about cannibalizing VIP? Also, Disney is already testing out an even more VIP experience (not sure if it’s at WDW or only DLR), so they could keep plussing VIP, double the cost, and then intentionally “cannibalize” the low end VIP clientele.

Finally, thinking about capacity, I think if the new pass was unlimited rides (or even once per attraction), and all or nothing for length of stay— lots of people would buy it to have it but wouldn’t actually ride more than 5-10 rides a day across all parks. I think many of the kind of people who buy a $500/person express pass just for convenience might not actually be park warriors trying to maximize rides... and if you require length of stay it’s even harder to keep up that pace.

It's an interesting thought that maybe they are ok cannibalizing a percentage of the VIP tours if they are able to "plus" them, make them feel even more exclusive and then increase the price.

If they loss 20% of the number of VIP tours but increase the cost of the remaining 80% by 25% they are at the same total revenue from them, and then open up this new revenue stream from the Premier Pass which should attract people that aren't willing to do / pay for the VIP tour

And none of this is really targeted at the average guest but can add another option for the small % willing and able to pay premier pricing for the elevated and easier experience

 

[Jrb1979]

It's an interesting thought that maybe they are ok cannibalizing a percentage of the VIP tours if they are able to "plus" them, make them feel even more exclusive and then increase the price.

If they loss 20% of the number of VIP tours but increase the cost of the remaining 80% by 25% they are at the same total revenue from them, and then open up this new revenue stream from the Premier Pass which should attract people that aren't willing to do / pay for the VIP tour

And none of this is really targeted at the average guest but can add another option for the small % willing and able to pay premier pricing for the elevated and easier experience

I'm still surprised that the majority of guests are happy with 3 short waits a day. Why wouldn't you want to pay more for having access to all rides when you want without a schedule

 

[GoofGoof]

I'm still surprised that the majority of guests are happy with 3 short waits a day. Why wouldn't you want to pay more for having access to all rides when you want without a schedule

I think that depends on the details.

We are a family of 4. If we go in the Summer we almost always get 10 day park tickets and spread the park time out with some days being maybe 3 or 4 hours of park time for the whole day. I wouldn’t do this if I had to buy 10 single day tickets but the cost difference between a 5 day ticket and a 10 day ticket is less than $100 per person so I have no issue spreading things out when those extra days are costing me less than $20 a day. We also enjoy spending some time just relaxing at the resort and pool so for me it’s not all about maximizing the per ride value of each park ticket day. It’s more about making the overall experience as enjoyable as possible.

On some of the shorter park days I would say it’s very possible we only do 5 or 6 rides that day and some of those probably don’t need LL. We may do some shows or entertainment, eat a meal and shop as well. Is it worth it to buy LLMP for those days? I’d say maybe, maybe not. In our recent trip we definitely had a few days where we bought in and probably didn’t need it. I was certainly happy to not be awake on any day of my trip at 7am. We got Tiana with LLMP and it was actually running and we bought individual LL for Tron and Guardians so no need for a virtual queue.

Would I want to pay significantly more for a product that gives me all the rides? On some days, maybe but most of the time, no not really. If I had 1 or 2 days at WDW and wanted to try to do a lot of rides I’d definitely be interested in buying in but that’s not my typical experience. If the new product required you to buy for length of stay (as some have suggested) I’d definitely not be interested. Assuming a price of $250pp if our family bought 10 day tickets it would cost us $10K . We spent a little over $1K on LLs over 10 days this last trip and now knowing the way it works better could get that down to about $700 easily. With the current system we did not wait over 20 mins for anything over 10 days and rode every ride we wanted to with many repeats.

 

[Jrb1979]

I think that depends on the details.

We are a family of 4. If we go in the Summer we almost always get 10 day park tickets and spread the park time out with some days being maybe 3 or 4 hours of park time for the whole day. I wouldn’t do this if I had to buy 10 single day tickets but the cost difference between a 5 day ticket and a 10 day ticket is less than $100 per person so I have no issue spreading things out when those extra days are costing me less than $20 a day. We also enjoy spending some time just relaxing at the resort and pool so for me it’s not all about maximizing the per ride value of each park ticket day. It’s more about making the overall experience as enjoyable as possible.

On some of the shorter park days I would say it’s very possible we only do 5 or 6 rides that day and some of those probably don’t need LL. We may do some shows or entertainment, eat a meal and shop as well. Is it worth it to buy LLMP for those days? I’d say maybe, maybe not. In our recent trip we definitely had a few days where we bought in and probably didn’t need it. I was certainly happy to not be awake on any day of my trip at 7am. We got Tiana with LLMP and it was actually running and we bought individual LL for Tron and Guardians so no need for a virtual queue.

Would I want to pay significantly more for a product that gives me all the rides? On some days, maybe but most of the time, no not really. If I had 1 or 2 days at WDW and wanted to try to do a lot of rides I’d definitely be interested in buying in but that’s not my typical experience. If the new product required you to buy for length of stay (as some have suggested) I’d definitely not be interested. Assuming a price of $250pp if our family bought 10 day tickets it would cost us $10K . We spent a little over $1K on LLs over 10 days this last trip and now knowing the way it works better could get that down to about $700 easily. With the current system we did not wait over 20 mins for anything over 10 days and rode every ride we wanted to with many repeats.

That makes sense. It's no wonder the current system is so liked. Many guests are like your family. They don't go to Disney for attractions necessarily. They go there for the experience and atmosphere.

 

[GoofGoof]

That makes sense. It's no wonder the current system is so liked. Many guests are like your family. They don't go to Disney for attractions necessarily. They go there for the experience and atmosphere.

I think it’s mostly a Disney World thing and especially in the Summer. I have never gone to Universal FL without Express Pass and have never had more than a 2 or 3 day park ticket. It is absolutely worth the extra cost of the deluxe hotel room for a night to get front of the line for all 4 of us for 2 days. Even for DLR we did 3 days in the parks the last time we were there and did use Max Pass but we spent way more time in the parks each day (75 and sunny makes it enjoyable to spend all day there ). I’d probably be more likely to buy a premium product for a day or 2 at DLR.

 

[MisterPenguin]

I'm sure Disney is well aware of the articles online in regards to families going into debt to pay for a Disney vacation.

Those articles have the click-bait title of "GOING INTO DEBT" which would ordinarily mean long term debt and ever increasing debt that will lead eventually to bankruptcy.

But the articles themselves point out that the "debt" is "on their credit card" and the overwhelming number of people who put it on their credit card pay it off the next month or over several months -- according to those same articles.

Except for a few manic outliers, no one is taking out a second mortgage and flirting with bankruptcy to go to WDW.

 

[wdisney9000]

Those articles have the click-bait title of "GOING INTO DEBT" which would ordinarily mean long term debt and ever increasing debt that will lead eventually to bankruptcy.

But the articles themselves point out that the "debt" is "on their credit card" and the overwhelming number of people who put it on their credit card pay it off the next month or over several months -- according to those same articles.

Except for a few manic outliers, no one is taking out a second mortgage and flirting with bankruptcy to go to WDW.

You're correct. It is click bait and I did not mean to imply that families were going into a major financial crisis. But the articles don't help Disney's reputation for having become very high priced. A non Disney nerd like us here most likely doesn't even click on the article. They just see the headline.

But as I said, it's an interesting move on Disney's behalf if they do roll out another higher cost offer such as this Premier Pass. They either don't care if Joe Public feels Disney's overpriced or they know enough people will pay the higher fee, or both.

I think it would be wise to roll a Pemier Pass into Deluxe Resort stays somehow. I think the problem they face that USO doesn't is they have more Deluxe resorts than Universals 3 Lowes.

 

[C33Mom]

But as I said, it's an interesting move on Disney's behalf if they do roll out another higher cost offer such as this Premier Pass. They either don't care if Joe Public feels Disney's overpriced or they know enough people will pay the higher fee, or both.

I think it would be wise to roll a Pemier Pass into Deluxe Resort stays somehow. I think the problem they face that USO doesn't is they have more Deluxe resorts than Universals 3 Lowes.

I think the idea is that if they make LLs 10x as expensive, fewer people will buy them and then regular waits for headliners will be 30–60m instead of 90m+ — then the middle class family saving to visit WDW can have a less miserable experience without shelling out an extra $100/day on LLs.

I don’t think they can/should roll a top tier pass into deluxe hotel stays, but maybe only deluxe hotel guests even have the opportunity to buy it (or maybe a 50% discount off a crazy high price?).

 

[wdisney9000]

I think the idea is that if they make LLs 10x as expensive, fewer people will buy them and then regular waits for headliners will be 30–60m instead of 90m+ — then the middle class family saving to visit WDW can have a less miserable experience without shelling out an extra $100/day on LLs.

I don’t think they can/should roll a top tier pass into deluxe hotel stays, but maybe only deluxe hotel guests even have the opportunity to buy it (or maybe a 50% discount off a crazy high price?).

Both good points. I think they only way they could roll it into Deluxe resorts would be like what you described. Either make it exclusive for Deluxe resorts guests to purchase or at discounted rate. I think the first option would be more likely so guests could not just book a cheap room at a value resort and then buy premier pass. Maybe give DVC and AP a discount on it.

I'd love to live in a world where they include it in a Deluxe resorts reservation but I don't see that happening.

 

[Animaniac93-98]

You're correct. It is click bait and I did not mean to imply that families were going into a major financial crisis. But the articles don't help Disney's reputation for having become very high priced. A non Disney nerd like us here most likely doesn't even click on the article. They just see the headline.

While the articles may be clickbait, I would say the narrative is expanding into mainstream outlets and growing in reach. A CNBC YouTube video about this topic posted 2 days ago already has over 600K views.

This is not something you want associated with your brand, even if you think it's invincible and safe from such criticism.

I've no doubt Disney has considered something like Premier Pass for WDW, but implementing it would be another story.

Regardless, it's clear that theme park tickets and their adds ons is the way Disney sees profit growth going forward. They know some will stay offsite, buy groceries, fly with points etc, but if you want to actually go in the parks, you have to pay whatever the Mouse wants. And once you're in there the pressure is on to maximize your time. Line skipping passes can be made to look like the easy solution who's value and convenience are blurred by the stress of touring.

 

[TrojanUSC]

This WSJ article from yesterday indicates Disney averaged $250MM/year from 2021-2024 for what was known as Genie+. (Doesn't say if that includes what we now know as LLMP and LLSP combined. Doesn't say which parks.)

I was previously told that combined domestic Genie+ and ILL revenue was between $500 to $800MM annually, and I'm still comfortable with that as a ballpark.

The other thing to take into account is that the average number of LLMP uses per guest remains below 3. Three rides. Three. Per family per day.

This pass is talking about all the rides in one or two parks - a use increase of 500%.

So Disney's going to risk:

• $500 to $800MM in annual revenue
• VIP tour revenue
• Other high-end products

And put more 500% more people in the LL, thereby making it worth less?

Let's say Disney sells 70 VIP tours per day across WDW and DL combined, at $4,000/each. (I think that's absurdly low, but work with me.) That's another $100MM in annual revenue.

So we're looking at $600 to $900MM in annual revenue in their line-skipping programs.

How much ... how much money would they need to charge for Premier Pass to mitigate the risk to that $600-$900MM?

The alternative would be a pass with such limited quantities that it doesn't materially affect any of the above. So that's a possibiilty.

These numbers make total sense but I'd surmise Disney has reached their ceiling for VIP tours for non-peak periods. There was a period a few years ago where they were always sold out at WDW, but that isn't the case as much anymore. DLR still sells out somewhat often but they have fewer guides there than in Florida.

Given this, I would suspect they studied enough to find out that there's a large subset of guests who would be willing to shell out far more than the current $25 for LLMP, but who stop short of wanting to do the full VIP tour cost. Universal's model alone proves there's a market.

As far as VIP tours go, I'm sure they are aware that two things are true: there are enough guests who will continue to use the service for the convenience and other benefits (VIP Viewing, transportation, etc) that it won't matter this new offering exists. Even if they cannibalize 15-20% of the existing business, this would likely be more than made up for by the revenue from the new offering, since the larger volume of it would makeup for the dent in tour business.

Let's say they charge $249 for this service, which I think is likely, but cap the sales at a number they find doesn't materially impact the LLs. They're now tapping into a completely new semi-premium market.

Universal's Express is a good comparison obviously, but they also offer a non-private VIP tour option for groups smaller than 10, which is also a good intermediate level of luxury that Disney also does not offer.

I've mentioned this elsewhere but they could help stymie some of the "tour bleed" if they tried to improve the offering a bit. Universal's VIP tours gives guests 3 meals and takes them to the front of the lines. Disney's VIP tours offers guests a couple of packaged snacks, one snack from a park stand (pretzel, ice cream, etc) and bottled water. Universal also takes tours directly to the front of the lines, where as Disney requires tour guests to almost always stand in the Lightning Lane and wait through the pre-shows. That's a tall ask for $800/hour to spend 30-45 minutes in the LL + pre-shows at Guardians or FoP.

 

[Fido Chuckwagon]

The only annoying thing about this is that they finally cleaned up a lot of irregular crowding issues in the lightning lanes by cutting down on DAS abuse and instituting this system will just bring those issues right back. Universal’s Express Pass lines frequently get quite long. They only “promise” you half the posted wait time. They are often quite a bit less than that, but not always.

 

[seabreezept813]

You can still call. How long ago was it?

August.. so it’s been almost a month

 

[seabreezept813]

A VIP tour is still a valuable Luxury item and is more than just to pound rides. The VIP tour guide will literally guide you through the park (not as valuable to those on this forum, but many people go in basically blind), drive you park to park backstage, get your Starbucks, provide snacks, ect. Overall its kind of status symbol to have your private theme park butler.

From Disney's standpoint.

• VIP tours frequently sell out, so there is untapped potential for a premium experience.
• The math gets much worse if you don't have a group of 10, so smaller parties that wouldn't get VIP might bite on the premiere access.
• This is basically "free" for them. The physical infrastructure doesn't change, and I don't think the digital end would be super complex.

I'm sure if it does significantly start eating into VIP profits they would stop/adjust it, but even Universal has found 4 levels of skip the line.

• Express
• Express unlimited
• Non-private VIP tour
• Private VIP tour

I'm sure Disney parks could handle 4 as well:

• LLMP
• LLMP and LLSP
• LL Premiere access (I'm coining LLPA right now)
• VIP tour

We saw a plaid babysitting an infant outside Tron. So free childcare too!

 

[Splash4eva]

Its a win win for them people will buy this and noone will stop buying the “regular” version and again this was why they eliminated so many DAS users… it wouldnt shock me if they introduced as possibly a “paid” version of how DAS worked where one can book rides to just walk onto but with a “max” time limit of say an hour possibly maybe even allowing guests to hold 2 at once. I dk but that sounds like something feasible and possible. And so many felt DAS was such a huge advantage anyone who can afford it is going to pay for it

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

Is LL selling well at WDW?

We just got back from 5 days at DL and didn’t even bother with it, the standby lines were all relatively short and the LL lanes were completely empty, I’m guessing this wasn’t what Disney had in mind when they envisioned everyone buying LL as a replacement for DAS.

 

[Fido Chuckwagon]

August.. so it’s been almost a month

If it’s worth the $20 to you, I’d call. That’s not that long ago and I bet at worst they’d give you a credit towards future Disney purchase.

 

[arich35]

Is there a way to see pricing in advance?