News Major Hurricane Dorian impacts to Walt Disney World 2019

[The Mom]

Y'all see those purple skies after Dorian passed through?

The Reason Behind the Purple Skies That Appeared After Hurricane Michael

Purple skies can be witnessed in the hours that follow a hurricane thanks to an equally powerful scientific phenomenon.

interestingengineering.com

The skies looked more hot pink than purple to me. Last night there was still a trace of pink, but the color had been fading every sunset. But it was intense on the first night.

 

[The Mom]

Unfortunately, many people on Ocracoke Island did not heed mandatory evacuation orders - they knew better than NHS and local emergency officials who told them it was a dangerous storm. Perhaps they were lulled into a sense of complacency by too many past storms turning out to be less than predicted?

 

[John park hopper]

I'm just north of Charleston SC and got power back @ 1:00 am had over 10" of rain, one pine tree came down missed the house and lots of trash in the yard. So glad to see Dorian finally go. No flooding here.

 

[DisneyCane]

Yep. Flip the result - now he's a guy telling people they'd be fine in Orlando before the Cat 5 hits... not great advice/commentary to be offering. The fact that his guess was right doesn't excuse it.

The fact is that Orlando is not at risk for the kind of catastrophic damage the Bahamas saw or even homestead from Andrew. Storm surge (a huge reason for the decimation and death in the Bahamas) is impossible in Orlando. There is also no way a storm can maintain sustained winds that strong so far inland.

That said, a hurricane moving through Orlando is certainly dangerous and you don't want people outdoors during one. Flooding is a possibility and certainly flying debris is also possible.

 

[Nubs70]

Unfortunately, many people on Ocracoke Island did not heed mandatory evacuation orders - they knew better than NHS and local emergency officials who told them it was a dangerous storm. Perhaps they were lulled into a sense of complacency by too many past storms turning out to be less than predicted?

or less than hyped.

when every storm gets the Weather Channel treatment and the world does not end as predicted, people get desensitized.

 

[Dead2009]

And the guy who said the effects would be “nil” was ridiculed. I wonder who is laughing now?

He was saying that Florida wasnt going to feel the effects at all days before the hurricane even reached the Bahamas. He was wrong in that regard.

 

[Dead2009]

or less than hyped.

when every storm gets the Weather Channel treatment and the world does not end as predicted, people get desensitized.

I'd like to think the people in the Bahamas would disagree with you...it definitely wasnt less than hyped and Florida dodged a major bullet.

 

[peter11435]

The fact is that Orlando is not at risk for the kind of catastrophic damage the Bahamas saw or even homestead from Andrew. Storm surge (a huge reason for the decimation and death in the Bahamas) is impossible in Orlando. There is also no way a storm can maintain sustained winds that strong so far inland.

That said, a hurricane moving through Orlando is certainly dangerous and you don't want people outdoors during one. Flooding is a possibility and certainly flying debris is also possible.

You are correct about storm surge. Winds however I wouldn’t be so confident about. If a strong enough hurricane made landfall heading directly towards Orlando and moving fast enough, significant winds could be felt before the storm weakens. Not to mention the ever-present risk or tornadoes.

 

[RustySpork]

And the guy who said the effects would be “nil” was ridiculed. I wonder who is laughing now?

Considering the storm turned away from Orlando and didn't follow the path predicted at the time those comments were made, he was never proven to be correct. Who's laughing now? Anyone with even trace amounts of common sense and intelligence are still laughing at that commenters ignorance.

 

[mgf]

I don't think this revisionist conversation is particularly useful to future readers. I understand that people who are there now and enjoying the crowds want to share that lucky outcome. The simple fact remains, however, that during this time last week the forecast for Orlando and all of Florida looked much different.

The state was under emergency declarations. The airport was closing. Disney activated its own hurricane protocols. Watches and warnings were being raised. Evacuations were being discussed. It was critically important to follow the word of the experts at the NHC - they did a phenomenal job forecasting a difficult storm. Resources like r/TropicalWeather and tropicaltidbits added helpful context. At the end of the day, government officials - backed by sound, sharpie-free forecasts - were asking people to avoid unessential travel over what would normally be a money-making holiday weekend.

Taking all of that into consideration, we cancelled. I broke the news to family that we would not be going. I joked with colleagues everyday this week about "aren't you supposed to be in Disney World"? Those of us that cancelled trips gave up months of planning, free dining plans, opening week visits to SW-Land, FW plans, etc. Sure in hindsight we would have been fine to have just plowed ahead and slept through the few rainbands that arrived. But at the end of the day it came down to a call of our safety and the safety of cast members and first responders that might have to attend to us vs a completely voluntary vacation. Disney was helpful. Marriott was helpful. We lost no money. We will reschedule.

Florida was spared the worst by just 70 miles. Have a great time with the low crowds, but let's not spike the football so much that it misleads those looking for information when the next storm threatens Disney.

 

[Clamman73]

Huh....

 

[Rich Brownn]

The fact is that Orlando is not at risk for the kind of catastrophic damage the Bahamas saw or even homestead from Andrew. Storm surge (a huge reason for the decimation and death in the Bahamas) is impossible in Orlando. There is also no way a storm can maintain sustained winds that strong so far inland.

That said, a hurricane moving through Orlando is certainly dangerous and you don't want people outdoors during one. Flooding is a possibility and certainly flying debris is also possible.

Tell that to the people 300 miles inland when Hugo hit.

 

[larryz]

Huh....
View attachment 407857

Probably want to start a new thread about this one...

 

[DisneyCane]

You are correct about storm surge. Winds however I wouldn’t be so confident about. If a strong enough hurricane made landfall heading directly towards Orlando and moving fast enough, significant winds could be felt before the storm weakens. Not to mention the ever-present risk or tornadoes.

Significant, yes. Maximum eyewall sustained winds, no. I paid a lot of attention to the wind field in Irma due to the fact that one of the later tracks took it to my house before it slid west. The winds once a few miles inland were significantly weaker than the same distance from the center over the water.

Orlando can have damage for sure but you will never see Andrew or Dorian level destruction in Orlando with the exception of localized areas if a tornado is spawned.

 

[John park hopper]

Hurircanes are unpredictable and to say Orlando will never have a Cat 3/4/5 when it is only 57 miles from the Atlantic coast I hope for you you are correct. Having gone through Hugo with the eye making land fall just 10 miles south of my house I would never say never.

 

[Clamman73]

Probably want to start a new thread about this one...

New runs of the model take it out to sea. *praying

 

[mgf]

New runs of the model take it out to sea. *praying

Just as a note, after 120 hours the model runs are significantly less valuable for understanding where the storm is going. NHC generally advises against relying on anything beyond 120 hours for decision making.

 

[peter11435]

Significant, yes. Maximum eyewall sustained winds, no. I paid a lot of attention to the wind field in Irma due to the fact that one of the later tracks took it to my house before it slid west. The winds once a few miles inland were significantly weaker than the same distance from the center over the water.

Orlando can have damage for sure but you will never see Andrew or Dorian level destruction in Orlando with the exception of localized areas if a tornado is spawned.

Listen, when it comes to nature never say never. Each storm is unique and in many ways unpredictable. Hurricane Wilma made landfall at 120mph and traveled diagonally across the state going back to sea still at 110mph. If a storm like Dorian made landfall at 185 at cape Canaveral traveling quickly west towards Orlando. Orlando absolutely could see category 5 hurricane conditions. Just because we haven’t seen it doesn’t mean it can’t happen

 

[Nubs70]

I'd like to think the people in the Bahamas would disagree with you...it definitely wasnt less than hyped and Florida dodged a major bullet.

Dorian was definitely worthy of the hype. The hype i and referring to are the run of the mill storm systems that are elevated to Dorian levels. For example, the naming of winter storm systems accompanied with the shocking of "15 million at risk in the path of Winter Storm Francis" Yes it is a winter storm, Yes it may drop 10 inches, but it is winter. Snow will happen. The over hype Weather Channel style puts people at risk through over hype which desensitized people to actual danger.

 

[cr3346]

Huh....
View attachment 407857

That's going to change 600 times between now and then. No point even posting it.