5th gate anyone.......?

[Goofyernmost]

This is dependent on how much un-tapped market there is.

I have a feeling that the market that could afford to go has already been there and are now tapped out.

 

[esskay]

The biggest argument against a fifth gate has been that Americans wouldn’t be willing to extend their vacations to visit all the parks. I’m not sure that’s a valid reason Disney wouldn’t build another gate though.

For one, if a visitor doesn’t have enough time to see all the parks in one trip it would likely encourage them to make another trip next year to see the rest of them.

Secondly, Disney needs to spread out the crowds more in order to maintain a positive guest experience.

It would need the 4 parks to be consistently full at all times to warrant the 5th gate. That would have to mean Americans are there constantly keeping it full along with internationals, and even then the 5th gate is only going to really spread them, meaning some Americans would be skipping a park entirely given the shorter vacation stays.

Capacity isn't anywhere close to its limit, so no 5th gate. Not now, not in 5 years, probaly not even in 15 years, especially when they can just expand what they've already got.

 

[danlb_2000]

It would need the 4 parks to be consistently full at all times to warrant the 5th gate. That would have to mean Americans are there constantly keeping it full along with internationals, and even then the 5th gate is only going to really spread them, meaning some Americans would be skipping a park entirely given the shorter vacation stays.

Capacity isn't anywhere close to its limit, so no 5th gate. Not now, not in 5 years, probaly not even in 15 years, especially when they can just expand what they've already got.

.. and they need to have squeezed every penny out of existing guests. At the moment it it easier to get more money out of existing guests then to try to draw new visits.

 

[spock8113]

"Possibility of a fifth park" Politics is now involved in this business venture. Sounds like too much government oversight to me.
I'd love to copy and paste my 5th gate, but the ink is getting thin: "RetroDisney®" All the old bygone rides in one theme park. MEH?

 

[lightguy]

It would need the 4 parks to be consistently full at all times to warrant the 5th gate. That would have to mean Americans are there constantly keeping it full along with internationals, and even then the 5th gate is only going to really spread them, meaning some Americans would be skipping a park entirely given the shorter vacation stays.

Capacity isn't anywhere close to its limit, so no 5th gate. Not now, not in 5 years, probaly not even in 15 years, especially when they can just expand what they've already got.

I'm not saying they are going to build another park any time soon- or ever for that matter (though I think they probably will eventually)- but the parks are far closer to their capacities now than they ever were when they build all of the previous parks. Same for universal. Strictly speaking, the capacity is irrelevant- it's all about how many more tickets and room nights it generates overall. Some cannibalization is OK as long as your net total increase is high enough verses your capital cost and increased operating costs.


Admittedly I probably haven't been to WDW as much as some of you in the last couple years (though I have several trips planned), but Epcot is generally a madhouse all night when I’m there, and frequently MK is so crowded you can barely walk down Main Street. I’m not convinced Beyond Big Thunder is actually going to increase the overall max capacity of the park. More likely it’s just going to increase the draw on the non-peak days and they’ll keep all the limits on the peak days. With the exception of AK, I’m not sure that the gate/entrance way infrastructure is sufficient to allow much of an increase in the overall maximum capacities of the parks. So I think on the really busy days, they are probably leaving money on the table, and adding these expansions isn’t going to significantly change the equation on those days. They are trying to run up the attendance on all of the days where they aren’t near max capacity. Just my 2 cents.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I think adding capacity to the existing parks first would be a good idea but eventually they will need a fifth gate.

Adding to the existing parks will also help ensure that when a fifth gate is built the new park won’t cannibalize any one park too much. Of course, any time a new gate is built the rest of the parks see some level of attendance decrease but with the number of guests visiting WDW nowadays it makes sense to consider adding a fifth gate in 7-10 years time.

See below. By the way…it’s been 26 years…why would “7-10” makes sense. And considering how bad they have become at construction…they would have had to start about 4 years ago.

It's not just a question of time, but of money. Are there enough people who would add extra trips to do more?

Is there any evidence that the current crowd level are hurting attendance?

No…and No

This is dependent on how much un-tapped market there is.

This is what gets me. They have LOST a lot of people the last couple of years when the economy would not have indicated that. That is the first time that is true…ever.

More parks make less sense than they ever have in the past. By a considerable margin.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I have a feeling that the market that could afford to go has already been there and are now tapped out.

The evidence supports this

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

.. and they need to have squeezed every penny out of existing guests. At the moment it it easier to get more money out of existing guests then to try to draw new visits.

Agreed…but they’re trying their best to kill that too.

It’s what happens when you promise your brokers LARGE increases every 90 days and 70…a shocking…70% of your intakes are now expensive parks where people don’t want the same stuff over and over again…with cost trimming.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I'm not saying they are going to build another park any time soon- or ever for that matter (though I think they probably will eventually)- but the parks are far closer to their capacities now than they ever were when they build all of the previous parks. Same for universal. Strictly speaking, the capacity is irrelevant- it's all about how many more tickets and room nights it generates overall. Some cannibalization is OK as long as your net total increase is high enough verses your capital cost and increased operating costs.


Admittedly I probably haven't been to WDW as much as some of you in the last couple years (though I have several trips planned), but Epcot is generally a madhouse all night when I’m there, and frequently MK is so crowded you can barely walk down Main Street. I’m not convinced Beyond Big Thunder is actually going to increase the overall max capacity of the park. More likely it’s just going to increase the draw on the non-peak days and they’ll keep all the limits on the peak days. With the exception of AK, I’m not sure that the gate/entrance way infrastructure is sufficient to allow much of an increase in the overall maximum capacities of the parks. So I think on the really busy days, they are probably leaving money on the table, and adding these expansions isn’t going to significantly change the equation on those days. They are trying to run up the attendance on all of the days where they aren’t near max capacity. Just my 2 cents.

If Disney built another park…there wouldnt be a significant increase in attendance if Any at all.

There wasn’t enough last time

It would be almost all cannibalization

 

[Goofyernmost]

I'm not saying they are going to build another park any time soon- or ever for that matter (though I think they probably will eventually)- but the parks are far closer to their capacities now than they ever were when they build all of the previous parks. Same for universal. Strictly speaking, the capacity is irrelevant- it's all about how many more tickets and room nights it generates overall. Some cannibalization is OK as long as your net total increase is high enough verses your capital cost and increased operating costs.


Admittedly I probably haven't been to WDW as much as some of you in the last couple years (though I have several trips planned), but Epcot is generally a madhouse all night when I’m there, and frequently MK is so crowded you can barely walk down Main Street. I’m not convinced Beyond Big Thunder is actually going to increase the overall max capacity of the park. More likely it’s just going to increase the draw on the non-peak days and they’ll keep all the limits on the peak days. With the exception of AK, I’m not sure that the gate/entrance way infrastructure is sufficient to allow much of an increase in the overall maximum capacities of the parks. So I think on the really busy days, they are probably leaving money on the table, and adding these expansions isn’t going to significantly change the equation on those days. They are trying to run up the attendance on all of the days where they aren’t near max capacity. Just my 2 cents.

Your experience with crowds cannot be judged by just what EPCOT evening attendance was, especially during the heaviest part of their partying, get drunk around the world times. Nor can you judge it just by the bottle neck that is Main Street USA. That was practically always packed mostly around 10am, fireworks and closing. It also cannot be judged by wait times because that is an illness that Disney themselves created with the very beginning of Fastpass and massively expended with Genie+ and LL. They are only basing that time on Standby and I will guarantee you that the one line system never had the wait times that exist now, even when they opened a new attraction. Of all the three that I just mentioned that last one had the largest affect on the perception that the crowds are so much bigger. That problem was man made and was the elephant in the room from the time it started. It was created to calm the nerves of the Type A personalities that felt that if they weren't able to walk quickly up to the ride that they were wasting time and were not going to be happy. The problem was that it hurt those that were either unaware of how FP worked or because of how it was designed couldn't get one either because they had a limit on the number of FP's available in the early days and now because they cannot freaking afford or willing to pay the ridiculous cost of buying a pass it has alienated ever more people.

I became addicted to the place long before FP even existed and I can tell you that even though there was always someone whining about the wait's in line mostly it was just good natured banter as we kept moving from the end of the line to the front. The anger and frustration came from lines that weren't moving and thus longer waits didn't happen until exactly when FP was started. It was stupid, it didn't really save anytime overall due to the fact that since not every attraction had FP or had anymore available to use was the first time that I witnessed real frustration and real anger in the lines and whatever time that was saved by it was made up in the longer standby's for other attractions..

In other words if Disney is a hot mess right now they have created that problem and sadly, I think it is going to take more and more of a toll as time goes on.

 

[Goofyernmost]

If Disney built another park…there wouldnt be a significant increase in attendance if Any at all.

There wasn’t enough last time

It would be almost all cannibalization

Especially since they have fallen pretty flat over the last decade when it came to creating attractions that moved people quickly and had enough creativity to make people slack jawed with wonder like the earlier ones did for most people that attended the place or wanted too. Perhaps even having the attraction last long enough to make wait times worth the effort. 1 hour waits in the heat for a 4 minute ride will not win any lasting fans.