Rumor 40% Capacity Soon? What if I Told You That We’re Already There

["El Gran Magnifico"]

Just a random musing. Can anyone here envision a day where the only way you'll be able to get into a park is if you stay on-property? Seems to me 35,000 room nights at an average of 3.5/per room equates to 122k Guests. The 4 parks max out at about 320k. Which would work out to ~ 38% (assuming 100% occupancy)

 

[Tha Realest]

My big fear is that they won't have the operational staff to run attractions at full capacity with the increase in attendance. Length of the line doesn't bother me so much as the actual wait time. It seems like times are getting longer and longer despite the supposed 40%. These wait times are entering prepandemic level that had a much bigger attendance. Anybody think that this is a slight concern for things moving forward as we someday approach "normalcy"?

My guess is they’ll relax those operational (and distancing) restrictions gradually to adapt. I also feel like WDW may be red-lining things a bit more to make up for the losses they’re taking on with the other parks being closed.

 

[marni1971]

Natural selection might help reduce the numbers.

Eventually.

 

[rreading]

And with no contact-tracing in Florida, they cannot be accountable.

Outside with a mask is pretty unlikely to spread disease though. WDW is better than many towns in Texas in terms of being cautious with contact.

 

[MisterPenguin]

Best guesstimates:

	Maximum Capacity​	Daily Average (TEA '19 Yearly/365)​	Daily Average as % of Max Capacity​	25%​	35%​	40%​
Magic Kingdom​	90,000​	57,500​	64%​	22,500​	31,500​	36,000​
EPCOT​	110,000​	34,000​	31%​	27,500​	38,500​	44,000​
Hollywood Studios​	60,000​	31,500​	53%​	15,000​	21,000​	24,000​
Animal Kingdom​	60,000​	38,000​	63%​	15,000​	21,000​	24,000​

 

[ToTBellHop]

And with no contact-tracing in Florida, they cannot be accountable.

Outside with a mask is pretty unlikely to spread disease though. WDW is better than many towns in Texas in terms of being cautious with contact.

“Better than many towns in Texas” is a rather low bar. I’m a better basketball player than many squirrels.

 

[djkidkaz]

Best guesstimates:

	Maximum Capacity​	Daily Average (TEA '19 Yearly/365)​	Daily Average as % of Max Capacity​	25%​	35%​	40%​
Magic Kingdom​	90,000​	57,500​	64%​	22,500​	31,500​	36,000​
EPCOT​	110,000​	34,000​	31%​	27,500​	38,500​	44,000​
Hollywood Studios​	60,000​	31,500​	53%​	15,000​	21,000​	24,000​
Animal Kingdom​	60,000​	38,000​	63%​	15,000​	21,000​	24,000​

So according to this Epcot is basically open to pre-pandemic levels.

Does anyone have any idea what type of attendance the parks are hitting currently compared to the daily average posted above?

 

[SourcererMark79]

My big fear is that they won't have the operational staff to run attractions at full capacity with the increase in attendance. Length of the line doesn't bother me so much as the actual wait time. It seems like times are getting longer and longer despite the supposed 40%. These wait times are entering prepandemic level that had a much bigger attendance. Anybody think that this is a slight concern for things moving forward as we someday approach "normalcy"?

At DAK this afternoon
EE 45 min posted, actual 14
Safari 50 min posted, actual 33
FOP 60 min posted, actual 40 min

Yesterday at DHS in the late afternoon
Slinky 60 min posted, actual 32
TSMM 35 posted, actual 21
MMRR 60 posted, actual 44

 

[Tha Realest]

Just curious- is this “wait time” inflation always a thing, or is it more of a COVID-era phenomenon?

 

[Animaniac93-98]

"Safety" may be the first key, but it looks like Mickey forgot where he put it.

 

[HauntedPirate]

Just curious- is this “wait time” inflation always a thing, or is it more of a COVID-era phenomenon?

It’s a long time thing. Used to happen at TSM all the time - At park open, the wait would be listed as 60-90 minutes. They use it to try and get people to other attractions.

Wait times seem to be somewhat accurate for the first 4-6 hours a park is open right now. After that, it’s pretty sketchy, and then the last couple of hours they go back to being fairly accurate (Hard to list a 30 minute wait for what is a near-walk on).

 

[ParentsOf4]

EPCOT on Jan 2nd seemed quite busy. TT had a wait of 145mins, Soarin 90mins, MS 75mins, Frozen was nearly 3hrs at one point.

Also, I didn't grab a photo, but the frozen line goes through the entire China pavilion. The line to get into The Land is a spaghetti mess outside.

Epcot appears to be much less crowded today (January 5) than it was during our November and December trips. The below photos are from my sister, who is at Epcot today.

 

[ParentsOf4]

Yesterday (January 4) at Disney's Hollywood Studios was its usual crowded self, but even more so. Based on other recent trips, the increase from 35% to 40% is believable.

 

[lentesta]

Just curious- is this “wait time” inflation always a thing, or is it more of a COVID-era phenomenon?

It has been especially pronounced lately.

 

[FeelsSoGoodToBeBad]

IMO, increasing capacity is less concerning to me than the fact that while doing so they have not opened attractions/eateries to offset the increased crowds. Right now, you're trying to shove a few more THOUSAND people into the same space that was available before.

I'm beginning to lose faith that our Spring Break trip will be possible. If capacity continues to be increased while park offerings remain unchanged, we will definitely have to cancel.

 

[Crazydisneyfanluke]

Epcot appears to be much less crowded today than it was during our November and December trips. The below photos are from my sister, who is at Epcot today.

View attachment 522469View attachment 522470View attachment 522471View attachment 522472View attachment 522473

This is the total opposite of what I had witness on Jan 2nd.

The Land used all of the space in front and to the left and right (Usually where strollers park) to form a line just to get in. We skipped The Land (For the first time in forever) and didn't even attempt again. It was like being there on the 4th of July again, maybe worse.

 

[MichWolv]

I was at EPCOT, DHS, and MK this week, Jan 3-5. Much more crowded than in October when I last visited. Lines for headline attractions an hour or more. However, mask mandates and distancing in queues were both being followed and enforced. In several areas, though, narrow pathways or bottlenecks caused by shows letting out did make things uncomfortable.

They probably need to open a few more shows/attractions if this level of crowd is to be maintained. Indiana Jones, MILF, TTA, BatB show, Fantasmic...

 

[Kram Sacul]

Embarrassing.

 

[FeelsSoGoodToBeBad]

I was at EPCOT, DHS, and MK this week, Jan 3-5. Much more crowded than in October when I last visited. Lines for headline attractions an hour or more. However, mask mandates and distancing in queues were both being followed and enforced. In several areas, though, narrow pathways or bottlenecks caused by shows letting out did make things uncomfortable.

They probably need to open a few more shows/attractions if this level of crowd is to be maintained. Indiana Jones, MILF, TTA, BatB show, Fantasmic...

I would point out that in October kids' schools were still in session. Most schools were still on break up until 1/5 and I would imagine many parents don't mind taking their kids back a few days late, especially this year. jm2c

 

[Magic Feather]

My sources are telling me that WDW has increased the park capacity from 35% to 40%. This happened on January 1st, and it was a part of the park hopping rollout. You probably will see the difference in the parks when visiting in the days ahead. Also, all parks now allow same-day reservations beginning around 1:30pm. Even if the calendars say there are no reservations available, even if there are no reservations available on the same morning, you will be able to book for the same-day for any park beginning around 1:30pm. This is true for all ticket types. This is to prevent the need for someone to visit one park just to enter and then hop to the other park that they couldn’t get a reservation for.

I’m not sure if this was reported before, so I apologize if it was, but I thought the 40% capacity update was newsworthy in its own right.

Also, I’m still posting this in the rumors category simply because I can’t confirm this on paper. Capacity is a finicky thing to define anyway. If anyone can comment or confirm, it would be appreciated.

Haha, I just logged on today to share the same discovery.

Anecdotally, all parks were pretty easy to get once in the afternoon anyways, but it’s good to see the change being official.

Also, the 40% fluctuates a bit from park to park, partly depending on modified attraction capacities.