News 2023 TEA/AECOM Global Attendance Report, EPCOT Sees Significant Growth

[Disney Analyst]

Yeah... it's a interesting question. Generally around the question of Length of Stay. If people are spending seven days on avg at WDW, they aren't increasing their trip length to include more park days, they're just switching around which park gets a 2nd day. New thing at DAK this year? Cut out Epcot.

And yeah it sort of solidifies Disney suggesting that a 5th park is off the table.

For Universal it could be a harder sell if their audience is already hard set in taking a 2 or 3 day weekend and they are hoping people expand out to 4 or 5.

I mean, if I was someone who had been to both Universal and Disney the last few years, planning a trip for next year... and speaking as a visitor, not a local. I'd probably make one to two days Epic, and potentially skip the other Universal parks, with MAYBE a visit to IOA.

But I would likely still try and visit all four Disney parks, with a potential skip for DHS. I am sure for some their Disney skip would be DAK.

 

[V_L_Raptor]

if Disney was smart, they'd always plan to open at least 1 new attraction every year in at least one of their 4 theme parks

'Ere... 'emme highlight that for ya...

Somehow, I don't think they're overburdened by an abundance of wisdom.

 

[monothingie]

I would be curious to know how the body counting works.

Disney Hotels are noticeably empty and some are partially shuttered, TS ADRs are down significantly, and locals have not come back in force because of the AP situation.

Wait times are down (correct me if I’m wrong @lentesta) so is the counting of bodies affected by the reduced standby capacity resulting from a full year implementation of G+? (More people with less to do wandering around the park)

 

[Disney Analyst]

I would be curious to know how the body counting works.

Disney Hotels are noticeably empty and some are partially shuttered, TS ADRs are down significantly, and locals have not come back in force because of the AP situation.

Wait times are down (correct me if I’m wrong @lentesta) so is the counting of bodies affected by the reduced standby capacity resulting from a full year implementation of G+?

Don't forget this is for last year, I would expect 2024 numbers to be down on next years report.

 

[LSLS]

I mean, if I was someone who had been to both Universal and Disney the last few years, planning a trip for next year... and speaking as a visitor, not a local. I'd probably make one to two days Epic, and potentially skip the other Universal parks, with MAYBE a visit to IOA.

But I would likely still try and visit all four Disney parks, with a potential skip for DHS. I am sure for some their Disney skip would be DAK.

But you can't do that. Didn't they say you would need at least a 3 day ticket to get one day at Epic?

 

[monothingie]

Don't forget this is for last year, I would expect 2024 numbers to be down on next years report.

Which makes it more confusing since there was a noticeable lull after the 50th and post Covid bump.

The problems of 2024 did not start in 2024. Noticeable changes in attendance and guest behavior began in 2023.

 

[DarkMetroid567]

Note that any of these companies misrepresenting their numbers would probably be illegal. Shareholders would not be pleased.

 

[Disney Analyst]

But you can't do that. Didn't they say you would need at least a 3 day ticket to get one day at Epic?

They haven't actually released anything yet, apart from some early details to certain vacation planners / travel agents.

It is expected that more ticketing options will be announced, as far as I know.

 

[HauntedPirate]

Note that any of these companies misrepresenting their numbers would probably be illegal. Shareholders would not be pleased.

None of the major parks release their actual attendance numbers.

 

[lazyboy97o]

This is something I've often pondered.

Have the theme parks already hit their ceiling, are their new customers to be gained in any significant number? Or does park expansion / new experiences just shift attendance around between parks?

Of course, the goal of a new theme park in Orlando would be to see an increase in theme park visitors across the board, and moving forward will that be the case?

That was the reason Iger wanted to sell the parks and curtailed investment to Walt Disney World. The market has grown since then. Universal has also demonstrated that they are capable of growing their own business and are not dependent on visitation driven by Disney as had long been the dominate case.

Note that any of these companies misrepresenting their numbers would probably be illegal. Shareholders would not be pleased.

AECOM does not represent the companies. Some have even previously taken issue with the reporting.

 

[DarkMetroid567]

None of the major parks release their actual attendance numbers.

Right, but you can still meaningfully misrepresent them.

 

[DarkMetroid567]

That was the reason Iger wanted to sell the parks and curtailed investment to Walt Disney World. The market has grown since then. Universal has also demonstrated that they are capable of growing their own business and are not dependent on visitation driven by Disney as had long been the dominate case.


AECOM does not represent the companies. Some have even previously taken issue with the reporting.

Oops, I was under the impression that the operators did work with them.

 

[Dranth]

Which makes it more confusing since there was a noticeable lull after the 50th and post Covid bump.

The problems of 2024 did not start in 2024. Noticeable changes in attendance and guest behavior began in 2023.

Just doing a quick scan, here is what they had to say about WDW in each of the earning reports last year:

Jan – March – “The increase in volumes was due to attendance growth and higher occupied room nights”

April-July – “Lower volumes were due to decreases in occupied room nights and attendance.”

Aug-Sep – “A decrease at Walt Disney World Resort resulting from:
▪ Higher costs attributable to accelerated depreciation related to the closure of Star Wars: Galactic Starcruiser and inflation
▪ To a lesser extent, lower guest spending driven by a decrease in average daily hotel room rates”

Oct-Dec – “Lower volumes due to decreases in attendance and occupied room nights”

My guess is the carry over from 2022 in the first three months was enough to offset the drops from the rest of the year as they likely weren't that large.

I expect the hotels on the other hand were hit MUCH harder than the parks.

The bigger concern for them should be the overall trend.

That people ditched AK and DHS is also interesting and setting aside the terrible choice of placement of the new stuff, explains some of the last D23. We already knew they were looking at AK but the Monsters area seemed a bit out of left field.

 

[BrianLo]

So Q1 and Q2 were much bigger gains than Q3 and Q4 were losses.

This makes sense. I think there was a lot of minimization last year about how Disney was really not out of the Pandemic impacts still in calendar q1/2 (aka fiscal q2/3 2022). Particularly with international inbound travelers.

Cruise ships (different product I know) really only came back to normal fully around this time just last year.

Universal becoming more attended just didn’t strike me as matching reality. In between DHS and DAK feels like current crowd feel.

 

[DonniePeverley]

Horrific numbers for Universal.

Adding a few cheap coasters with a lick of paint was never going to be a game changer. People want lands, immersive places to visit.

Clearly shows without regular investment in their parks Universal will struggle in my opinion.

Hollywood studios numbers also a bit of a shock, Star Wars hasn't been the game changer we thought it might be.

 

[BrianLo]

Which makes it more confusing since there was a noticeable lull after the 50th and post Covid bump.

The problems of 2024 did not start in 2024. Noticeable changes in attendance and guest behavior began in 2023.

I think pandemic related operations and capacity reductions made the parks feel busier than they really were. There is a lot of stuff that was slow to reopen.

WDW is still down precipitously from 2019.

 

[fgmnt]

That people ditched AK and DHS is also interesting and setting aside the terrible choice of placement of the new stuff, explains some of the last D23. We already knew they were looking at AK but the Monsters area seemed a bit out of left field.

Is there surveying of GSAT for someone's overall day at a park? It genuinely wouldn't surprise me if that is measured, EPCOT scores higher than Studios and DAK by a whole standard deviation.

 

[BrianLo]

That people ditched AK and DHS is also interesting and setting aside the terrible choice of placement of the new stuff, explains some of the last D23. We already knew they were looking at AK but the Monsters area seemed a bit out of left field.

The lack of a major Epcot project and their whole pipeline makes A LOT more sense in this context.

I really think a DAK night show for 2026 may be on the cards. To help tamponade that bleeding park.

 

[donsullivan]

None of the major parks release their actual attendance numbers.

The only one I know of in this group that does publish their numbers is Oriental land Company for Tokyo Disney Resort. You can find it at:

Attendance | OLC Group at a Glance | Investor Relations | Oriental Land Co., Ltd.

You can see the Attendance of Oriental Land Co., Ltd..

www.olc.co.jp

 

[Animaniac93-98]

I think it's clear people are being very selective with which parks they visit in Orlando, and most do not have the time and money to spend at all of them, or at each the same.

I'd be curious to know what % of WDW park visitors visit all 4 parks.