News 2023 TEA/AECOM Global Attendance Report, EPCOT Sees Significant Growth

[Disney Analyst]

I think a lot of talk regarding Epic as a "Disney Killer" is exaggerated. What it will do is reduce attendance at the non-MK park depending on how Universal prices their tickets and how difficult it becomes to visit. Long-term, Universal Studios Florida is the secret ingredient to being more competitive with Disney. That park is falling apart.

Epic will give Universal a short-term 2 year boost resort-wide, after that... Disney will be taking back a lot of the attention.

I still think USF is the most at danger of cannibalization, probably followed by DHS.

 

[Henry Mystic]

I think a lot of talk regarding Epic as a "Disney Killer" is exaggerated. What it will do is reduce attendance at the non-MK park depending on how Universal prices their tickets and how difficult it becomes to visit. Long-term, Universal Studios Florida is the secret ingredient to being more competitive with Disney. That park is falling apart.

Epic will give Universal a short-term 2 year boost resort-wide, after that... Disney will be taking back a lot of the attention.

Yes, but Universal has direct, ambitious plans to counter Disney's response to Epic.

It's more like a theme park war at this point.

I still think USF is the most at danger of cannibalization, probably followed by DHS.

Absolutely!

 

[Dranth]

As for the report itself, nothing too surprising. Disney being flat while Uni being down just under double digits seems about right. Both roughly line up with what we were hearing from the companies at the time.

Next year’s report (this year’s attendance) will likely see Uni drop further as people wait for Epic. Obviously, they will start to reverse the trend once Epic comes online but I am not convinced it will open in time to help 2025 much and even when it does, that people won't just skip the other Uni parks as bad as the company is treating USF and IoA right now.

Disney should also see a drop based on earnings calls this year, the question will be how much? Personally, I expect it to be in the single digits (5-7% range) but I also wouldn't be remotely shocked to see them hit with a low double digit drop either. Either way it will be interesting to watch.

One caveat, if a recession does hit, both are going to tank spectacularly.

Finally, it is interesting just how niche the water parks are. You can combine the attendance of all of them across Florida and still be significantly short of the lowest theme park in Orlando. Don't get me wrong, I love them for what they are, but I always thought it was funny when either Disney or Uni tried to promote them the same as the full parks. A weird pet peeve of mine I know, and I haven't seen Disney do that in a while so maybe they learned but Uni, you have two parks and a water park, not three parks (until next year).

 

[donsullivan]

A couple of the charts to see long-term patterns

20 Year trend at Walt Disney World

20 year trend at Universal Orlando

Combined Totals of 'Dry' parks for both Disney and Universal in Orlando

As always, if there is a typo in any of the values I've transcribed from TEA report, please let me know so I can correct it.

 

[Brian]

Also these numbers are what make me laugh when people say Epic is a Disney killer.



Disney may see a modest decrease when Epic opens, in Florida only, but even that begs to be seen.

No one is close to their dominance globally.

Epic Universe will be a 'Disney killer' insofar as theming and technology is concerned. The other parks, including USF, will look sad and dated in comparison.

 

[Andrew25]

I still think USF is the most at danger of cannibalization, probably followed by DHS.

Yes, I've been saying for years that Epic Universe will be great but come at a cost to Universal if they don't properly develop USF. It's Universal's Epcot, it gets away with little/lack of investment because of all of the events.

I think DAK will be severely impacted with a new park "worth" the price of admission while DAK is running on fumes to get to Tropical Americas in the next 2-2.5 years. I'd imagine lots of AP benefits will be offered/move to DAK to get attendance up.

Epic Universe will be a 'Disney killer' insofar as theming and technology is concerned. The other parks, including USF, will look like sad and dated in comparison.

Tech wise, Epic Universe will be better (unless they start to fail) than most of Disney's recent development. Flying Dragons will be a heck of a sight.

 

[LSLS]

I'll still say I think there is a very real chance it hurts MK as well at least next year. And maybe USF less than you expect because of the ticket requirements.

 

[fgmnt]

A couple of the charts to see long-term patterns

20 Year trend at Walt Disney World
View attachment 809567

20 year trend at Universal Orlando
View attachment 809569


Combined Totals of 'Dry' parks for both Disney and Universal in Orlando

View attachment 809568

As always, if there is a typo in any of the values I've transcribed from TEA report, please let me know so I can correct it.

Fascinating to me that combined WDW attendance has still not recovered to 2013 levels. Wonder if you asked guests who have been there in the last two years and 10 years ago if they feel that way?

 

[Jrb1979]

The crazier thing is Animal Kingdom only did 8 million visitors. That's only 4 million more than SeaWorld and Cedar Point. One of those is only open 5 months a year

 

[Gusey]

I do think these numbers prove worrisome for AK until 2027. Since we know Dinoland will be closing beginning this Fall, and ITTBAB w/ Dinosaur is closing soon, there won't be much to draw guests to that park next year. Zootopia opens at the end of next year probably, but will that be enough to draw guests to AK?

 

[Gusey]

Will point out Hong Kong had a great 2023, 88% increase it's a brilliant bounceback from their lockdowns

 

[networkpro]

Fascinating to me that combined WDW attendance has still not recovered to 2013 levels. Wonder if you asked guests who have been there in the last two years and 10 years ago if they feel that way?

On admission alone the price has more than doubled.

 

[DarkMetroid567]

Fascinating to me that combined WDW attendance has still not recovered to 2013 levels. Wonder if you asked guests who have been there in the last two years and 10 years ago if they feel that way?

It’s basically where the “how much can we raise prices?” game started. Every year the parks would still be insufferably crowded and all Disney had to do was hit the Price Go Up button.

 

[el_super]

Nothing too concerning or different from what was being reported. Seems to be proof that attendance patterns ARE shifting and while fewer may be going during the summer (due to heat), it's being made up for in other periods of the year.

One thing of note tho:

I do think these numbers prove worrisome for AK until 2027.

It seems that, with Epcot going up, spare time was being shifted from AK to Epcot. That's not really too concerning for AK specifically, but a shot across the bow of having a multi-park setup in general. It's too costly to keep building in one park over the other, just to have your audience shift between them. No new audience is being gained. That's a problem.

No doubt the Dinoland changes will help DAK, but will that just come at the cost of losing people from Epcot again? Or DHS? What's the point?

Seems that Universal would be very concerned about cannibalization too.

 

[Disney Analyst]

It's too costly to keep building in one park over the other, just to have your audience shift between them. No new audience is being gained. That's a problem.

No doubt the Dinoland changes will help DAK, but will that just come at the cost of losing people from Epcot again? Or DHS? What's the point?

Seems that Universal would be very concerned about cannibalization too.

This is something I've often pondered.

Have the theme parks already hit their ceiling, are their new customers to be gained in any significant number? Or does park expansion / new experiences just shift attendance around between parks?

Of course, the goal of a new theme park in Orlando would be to see an increase in theme park visitors across the board, and moving forward will that be the case?

 

[DarkMetroid567]

I never expected to see DCA on par with IoA on attendance again.

This is something I've often pondered.

Have the theme parks already hit their ceiling, are their new customers to be gained in any significant number? Or does park expansion / new experiences just shift attendance around between parks?

Of course, the goal of a new theme park in Orlando would be to see an increase in theme park visitors across the board, and moving forward will that be the case?

I think it’ll work in the long-term for Universal, but for the same reasons I think it’s very very hard to justify a Disney 5th gate or potentially even a Universal 4th gate.

 

[Disney Analyst]

I never expected to see DCA on par with IoA on attendance again.

I think it’ll work in the long-term for Universal, but for the same reasons I think it’s very very hard to justify a Disney 5th gate or potentially even a Universal 4th gate.

I didn't even look at DCA.

#6 in North America, #11 Worldwide.

Moving on up.

Was #8 North America, and #13 worldwide, in 2019

 

[DarkMetroid567]

I didn't even look at DCA.

#6 in North America, #11 Worldwide.

Moving on up.

Was #8 North America, and #13 worldwide, in 2019

It’s not a popular opinion on forums with a lot of Disney purists and old-timers like this one, but I think DCA has been a strong park for a long time and Pandora + Coco will only make it stronger. My family still prefers DCA to Disneyland, much to my dismay.

 

[el_super]

This is something I've often pondered.

Have the theme parks already hit their ceiling, are their new customers to be gained in any significant number? Or does park expansion / new experiences just shift attendance around between parks?

Yeah... it's a interesting question. Generally around the question of Length of Stay. If people are spending seven days on avg at WDW, they aren't increasing their trip length to include more park days, they're just switching around which park gets a 2nd day. New thing at DAK this year? Cut out Epcot.

And yeah it sort of solidifies Disney suggesting that a 5th park is off the table.

For Universal it could be a harder sell if their audience is already hard set in taking a 2 or 3 day weekend and they are hoping people expand out to 4 or 5.

 

[GhostHost1000]

Nothing too concerning or different from what was being reported. Seems to be proof that attendance patterns ARE shifting and while fewer may be going during the summer (due to heat), it's being made up for in other periods of the year.

One thing of note tho:



It seems that, with Epcot going up, spare time was being shifted from AK to Epcot. That's not really too concerning for AK specifically, but a shot across the bow of having a multi-park setup in general. It's too costly to keep building in one park over the other, just to have your audience shift between them. No new audience is being gained. That's a problem.

No doubt the Dinoland changes will help DAK, but will that just come at the cost of losing people from Epcot again? Or DHS? What's the point?

Seems that Universal would be very concerned about cannibalization too.

if Disney was smart, they'd always plan to open at least 1 new attraction every year in at least one of their 4 theme parks