2021 Box Office Tracking

[NateD1226]

I'm curious - how do we know it's the #1 most pirated movie? Who even tracks that?

A site called TorrentFreak:

Top 10 Most Pirated Movies of The Week – 10/02/2023 * TorrentFreak

Every week we take a close look at the most pirated movies on torrent sites. What are pirates downloading? 'Gran Turismo' tops the chart, followed by '_Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One'. ‘Blue Beetle' completes the top three.

torrentfreak.com

Here is a quote from Deadline about the amount of piracy:

Fact: Black Widow was the most-pirated movie last week on Torrent Freak, ahead of The Tomorrow War in the No. 2 spot. I understand from sources that have seen several piracy reports that apparently Black Widow might be the most-pirated title to date during the pandemic, ahead of Wonder Woman 1984.

‘Black Widow’ Posts Steepest 2nd Weekend B.O. Drop For Disney MCU Title; Studio Silent On PVOD Update As Piracy Impacts Pic

If Disney keeps up this whole theatrical-PVOD day-and-date model, maybe it won’t be so scary for rival studios in the future to follow a Marvel movie during its second weekend at the box office. The studio’s Marvel Cinematic Universe standalone origin movie Black Widow had a great fall in its...

deadline.com

 

[Ripken10]

It's a shame, but at the same time, Black Widow will have long term value for the MCU. After this, movies are all theatrical for Disney, no more hybrid releases. This poor performance in week 2 is basically the confirmation they needed.

I think the franchise is safe, as it was well received, but the experiment of hybrid releases, something Iger wanted for a long time, is probably done. I could see a more narrow PVOD window though, especially if films don't start showing some better legs after their opening weekend.

Jungle Cruise will be interesting to watch, since it won't be on Disney+ for a bit. I doubt it'll have a huge opening weekend like Black Widow, it'll be week two that will be the most interesting, IMO.

Maybe I am misunderstanding you, but Jungle Cruise will follow same model as Black Widow --- releasing on Disney+ Premium at same time as theaters.

 

[CJR]

Maybe I am misunderstanding you, but Jungle Cruise will follow same model as Black Widow --- releasing on Disney+ Premium at same time as theaters.

I thought they previously said BW would be the last. You're correct, it's on Disney+ too.

I deleted that post since the info was incorrect.

 

[PostScott]

IK this isn't a Disney movie but just saw Space Jam 2. I saw the original as a kid and was a fan but I wasn't sure how this was gonna turn out.

Once I saw the reviews come out I knew this was gonna be the type of movie where you sit with a group of friends at home and watch it together. There were honestly some amazing unintentionally hilarious moments in the movie. No spoilers here but I had such a great time. The movie truly deserves the score it's been getting so far because it's so bad it's good. The only true redeemable factor is that the animation and special effects are pretty good and I'm glad they went back to 2D animation for a bit (it's such a dying artform now). Go watch it with your friends or family and have a good time, just don't expect anything going in lol

 

[Disney Analyst]

Could this be a trend? New movies have a big start but a harsh drop?

All the people who feel comfortable going will likely go right at release, but I wonder if the general audience that keeps movie attendance high but who are not necessarily opening weekend types, are just still not going to the movies?

 

[Animaniac93-98]

Could this be a trend? New movies have a big start but a harsh drop?

All the people who feel comfortable going will likely go right at release, but I wonder if the general audience that keeps movie attendance high but who are not necessarily opening weekend types, are just still not going to the movies?

Big second weekend drop offs have been the trend for some time now, but what happened with Black Widow is worse than typical.

I agree that those who want to see these in theatres will rush to them opening weekend and others are not comfortable yet. I think Black Widow's opening weekend was especially front loaded too with a high % coming on the Thursday evening/Friday itself.

 

[Animaniac93-98]

For me personally, having Disney+ and knowing these will all be "free" within 90 days or less makes going to the theater not worth it for the most part. I'm planning to see Jungle Cruise, though.

Remember when you had to wait 6-12 months to buy or rent the video after the theatrical run?

 

[Disney Analyst]

Big second weekend drop offs have been the trend for some time now, but what happened with Black Widow is worse than typical.

I agree that those who want to see these in theatres will rush to them opening weekend and others are not comfortable yet. I think Black Widow's opening weekend was especially front loaded too with a high % coming on the Thursday evening/Friday itself.

Yeah, for me it's hard to say what is what.

I just think there are a lot of people not yet comfortable to attend a film in person, and so the legs films usually have may not... really exist right now.

 

[NateD1226]

It was a rough weekend at the box office with some soft openings and harsh falls. Old took the top spot with an opening weekend of $16.5 million. Even though it did reach expectations, it was not anything big. Snake Eyes debuted at #2 with an opening weekend of $13.35 million. This is far behind other entries in the G.I. Joe franchise and barely matched the industry’s projections. Both of these film could suffer from many things including lack of star power, the Olympics, poor advertising, or how both movies are rotten on Rotten Tomatoes. Black Widow is at #3 this weekend with a weekend total of $11.6 million which translates to a 55% fall. While that may seem a bit large, let’s look at Space Jam: A New Legacy which fell a harsh 69% in its second weekend with a $9.56 million total. This brings concerns to future movies like The Suicide Squad and Dune where the day and date release is most likely going to hurt their box office performance. F9 rounded out the top five with a weekend total of $4.7 million as it beat out Escape Room 2 which fell 64%

As for Disney’s other 3 movies they are all gathering the little cash they can in this crowded market. Cruella fell a harsh 61% making $450k in its 9th weekend. Raya and the Last Dragon continues to make some cash even after being free on Disney+ for almost 2 months. This weekend Raya and The Last Dragon made $21k in its 21st weekend. Luca’s numbers are not out at the moment, but I will edit the post when they are updated.

This Friday, Disney’s Jungle Cruise gets released wide! Box Office Pro’s opening weekend prediction is $20 million - $40 million. I’ll post Deadline’s prediction when it gets posted in a few days.

1. Old (Uni) 3,355 theaters, Fri $6.9M/Sat $5.59M/Sun $4M/3-day $16.5M/Wk 1

2. Snake Eyes (Par) 3,521 theaters Fri $5.5M/Sat $4.48M/Sun $3.37M/3-day: $13.35M/Wk 1

3. Black Widow (Dis) 4,250 theaters (-25)/Fri $3.5M/Sat $4.7M/Sun $3.4M/3-day $11.6M (-55%)/Total $154.8M/Wk 3

4. Space Jam: A New Legacy (WB) 4,002 theaters (+37) Fri $3.05M (-77%)/Sat $3.7M/Sun $2.8M/3-day: $9.56M(-69%)/Total $51.3M/Wk 2

5. F9 (Uni) 2,850 theaters (-518), Fri $1.36M/Sat $1.9M/Sun $1.43M/3-day $4.7M (-39%)/Total: $163.3M/ Wk 5

6. Escape Room: Tournament of Champions (Sony) 2,815 theaters Fri $1.07M/Sat $1.33M/Sun $990K/3-day $3.4M (-61%)/Total: $16M/Wk 2

7. Boss Baby: Family Business (Uni) 2,773 theaters (-676), Fri $820K/Sat $1.1M/Sun $770k/3-day $2.7M (-43%)/total $50.1M/Wk 4

8. Forever Purge (Uni) 2,113 (-622) theaters Fri $740K/Sat $890K/Sun $670k/3-day $2.3M (-44%)/Total $40.3M/Wk 4

9. A Quiet Place 2 (Par) 1,367 (-628) theaters Fri $380K/Sat $500K/Sun $370K/3-day $1.25M (-44%)/Total $157.5M/Wk 9

10. Roadrunner (Foc) 954 (+27) theaters, Fri $250K/Sat $320K/Sun $260K/ 3-day $830K (-58%)/Total $3.7M/Wk 2

Box Office Drops With ‘Old’, ‘Snake Eyes’, ‘Black Widow’ & ‘Space Jam 2’: But Is Delta Variant Or Dynamic Windows To Blame? – Update

3RD UPDATE, Sunday AM Rewrite: Two releases respecting the theatrical window –Universal’s Old and Paramount’s Snake Eyes: G.I. Joe Origins– are opening at the box office to …

deadline.com

WEEKEND BOX OFFICE: Old Opens at No. 1 w/ Strong $16.5M, Snake Eyes Comes in 2nd w/ $13.35M - Boxoffice

Following strong debuts by F9, Black Widow and Space Jam: A New Legacy over the past several weeks, the North American box office slowed down a tad this weekend as two new studio films -- Universal’s Old and Paramount’s Snake Eyes: G.I. Joe Origins – debuted in theaters. After a close race, the...

www.boxofficepro.com

 

[Animaniac93-98]

I imagine there's a lot of finger pointing and shouting going on at Burbank over Black Widow's performance and the sinking ship that Jungle Cruise looks to be (a $40 million opening weekend for a $200 million blockbuster is...not good, even with VOD sales).

 

[Jedijax719]

I doubt Jungle Cruise will make $40 million in its OW. As for Black Widow, I knew it would drop a bit after its OW, but I never imagined it would drop THIS much so soon. It's two factors and two factors only: Premier Access and lingering COVID concerns (which are now more real than they were even a month ago). Can't really do anything about that. They can eliminate Premier Access, but even movies without that option from other studios fell fast and furiously (see what I did there lol).

 

[Animaniac93-98]

I doubt Jungle Cruise will make $40 million in its OW. As for Black Widow, I knew it would drop a bit after its OW, but I never imagined it would drop THIS much so soon. It's two factors and two factors only: Premier Access and lingering COVID concerns (which are now more real than they were even a month ago). Can't really do anything about that. They can eliminate Premier Access, but even movies without that option from other studios fell fast and furiously (see what I did there lol).

People have known for sometime now that they don't have to go to a movie theater to watch a movie, but when they got shut down and Hollywood quickly began dumping them online, I think it forced a paradigm shift in the business faster and further away from traditional movie watching. Now that they're back I think a lot of people are thinking "who cares?" and don't feel like driving out to the multiplex and paying outrageous concession fees just to watch something they could do at home at the same time.

 

[Mmoore29]

There's a lot of people that love the theatrical experience, and the cost of the Premier Access is the roughly the same as one ticket, popcorn and soda. Besides, if movies don't have theaters, there is no viable way to get an ensured return quickly, and likewise, the budgets and effects. If theaters collapsed, we'd be stuck with extremely cheap material and embarrasingly bad effects little better than people making movies in their backyard.

 

[DKampy]

There's a lot of people that love the theatrical experience, and the cost of the Premier Access is the roughly the same as one ticket, popcorn and soda. Besides, if movies don't have theaters, there is no viable way to get an ensured return quickly, and likewise, the budgets and effects. If theaters collapsed, we'd be stuck with extremely cheap material and embarrasingly bad effects little better than people making movies in their backyard.

100 percent… the billions of dollars made with theatrical is what allows the big budgets we see today… say goodbye to quality television and movies

 

[Mmoore29]

100 percent… the billions of dollars made with theatrical is what allows the big budgets we see today… say goodbye to quality television and movies

I can't tell if you really agree with me or not. (Sigh) Such is the ambiguity of online text.

But I feel that exhibition will rebound simply because the studios can't afford to let it die. And that despite Disney apparently not going to attend CinemaCon in person, they still very much are committed to the theatrical experience, even if they have sent mixed messages lately.

 

[DKampy]

I can't tell if you really agree with me or not. (Sigh) Such is the ambiguity of online text.

But I feel that exhibition will rebound simply because the studios can't afford to let it die. And that despite Disney apparently not going to attend CinemaCon in person, they still very much are committed to the theatrical experience, even if they have sent mixed messages lately.

I do agree… the whole industry will collapse with theaters

 

[Disney Analyst]

So as I suspected - it’s seemingly industry wide. Big opening weekends from the theatre enthusiasts who are comfortable attending, but the vast public is simply not going to the movies yet, so second weekends are big drops.

I expect this trend to continue.

 

[doctornick]

So as I suspected - it’s seemingly industry wide. Big opening weekends from the theatre enthusiasts who are comfortable attending, but the vast public is simply not going to the movies yet, so second weekends are big drops.

I expect this trend to continue.

I think you probably also have fewer repeat viewings in theaters (something you'd see with franchise movies like Black Widow and Fast & the Furious) which affects the subsequent weeks after opening.

 

[BrianLo]

I definitely still feel like there is some recovery to go for the industry and this is not strictly a problem with Black Widow. It certainly did fine though, even accounting for the huge drops (Space Jam being even more front loaded).

I think it has recuperated its budget more or less. Not particularly an amazing feat considering the box office infallibility of Marvel... but still. I feel like we are still a year out from theatrical recovery and some of it may never return.

 

[doctornick]

I would have been curious as to how Black Widow would have done without the Premium release on D+. Personally, I think Disney left money on the table for that film with that strategy. I really think that the MCU brand would have gotten butts into theaters even amongst those a bit leery just because of the popularity. And because of how the MCU has functioned with feeling like you are missing out - or would get plot holes in other series/movies - by not seeing someone right away. Or hearing spoilers.

I also think that MCU films get a bunch of repeat viewers amongst the hardcore that go opening day/weekend. But it wouldn't surprise me if many/most of them did one theater shot and then bought on D+ for repeat viewings. And now owning on D+, they are less likely to spend money down the road to buy a physical media/download (downstream revenue).

Also, $30 is a bargain for an event film that a group of friends or families would otherwise all go together to see in the movie theaters. I mean, in my family alone, the $30 price was used to have 8 total watch (my family and then my parents/sister who came over that weekend to watch). We would have all bought tickets for the theater if that weren't an option.

I think I had posted on here last year about how Disney would never put an MCU film on D+ at release even with Premium. Obviously, I was wrong, but I still think my logic was correct and this was the wrong move.