2016 TEA Themed Entertainment Attendance Report

[Tavernacle12]

F
Frozen.

From the attendance report, it's become starkly clear that Frozen did nothing to significantly move attendance at Epcot. While it opened nearly halfway through the year, some of that should be discernible in this report. Frozen either stopped a decline so bad that Epcot would have been down hundreds of thousands of guests more, or it did practically nothing. Either case that's embarrassing.

I'd say it failed to help matters due to its awful wait times and capacity, but I doubt most people know enough about that to make that choice and avoid it. I will say it and Soarin Around The World seemed to get suspiciously little advertising for a good part of the year, certainly nothing on par with Avatar. I assumed with Frozen this was due to not wanting to exacerbate the capacity problem. It could also be that the ride by itself isn't enough to make people who weren't otherwise going to visit Epcot to head there.

 

[bhg469]

I'd say it failed to help matters due to its awful wait times and capacity, but I doubt most people know enough about that to make that choice and avoid it. I will say it and Soarin Around The World seemed to get suspiciously little advertising for a good part of the year, certainly nothing on par with Avatar. I assumed with Frozen this was due to not wanting to exacerbate the capacity problem. It could also be that the ride by itself isn't enough to make people who weren't otherwise going to visit Epcot to head there.

I am surprised that the epcot numbers aren't stronger. I don't think frozen is as strong a franchise that people thought. I knew it would end up in turnstile clicks but I guarantee most of those visits were in and out.

 

[monothingie]

https://mobile.nytimes.com/2017/06/...nce.html?referer=http://www.drudgereport.com/

Higher prices lower attendance, higher margins, more profits. Everything Disney wants.

@ParentsOf4 can probably explain it better than I could hope to ever.

 

[ToTBellHop]

https://mobile.nytimes.com/2017/06/...nce.html?referer=http://www.drudgereport.com/

Higher prices lower attendance, higher margins, more profits. Everything Disney wants.

@ParentsOf4 can probably explain it better than I could hope to ever.

Yes, but they always want MORE, MORE, MORE! Now that crowds have adjusted down (ostensibly) due to higher prices, they would like attendance to increase year-for-year at the higher price-points. So, new attractions, dining, and resorts/rooms with improving infrastructure. I don't entirely mind that. I'll pay premium for premium.

 

[ParentsOf4]

https://mobile.nytimes.com/2017/06/...nce.html?referer=http://www.drudgereport.com/

Higher prices lower attendance, higher margins, more profits. Everything Disney wants.

@ParentsOf4 can probably explain it better than I could hope to ever.

Simplistically, Disney wants to drive away local annual pass holders who visit often but spend comparatively little each visit.

In current business thinking, total revenue is less important than margin. In recent years, Disney Parks & Resorts operating margin has increased at about twice the rate of revenue.

 

[Jon81uk]

In that year only one attraction closed, but a few other attractions closed just prior to that, Backlot Tour, American Idol...not that those were big draws anymore

Streets of America, Honey I Shrunk The Children Playground, Osborne Lights, Animation Academy, various meet and greets, Star Wars Weekends, and that Pirates of the Caribbean thing all closed too. Obviously, none of those were large draws (besides SWW), but at least a good third of the park, if not more, isn't traversable anymore.

Okay I might have forgotten that backlot tour closed a year before everything else. But Streets of America was never really an attraction. At animation the only thing missing are the drawing classes, most of the other meet and greets have moved elsewhere and there is all the new Star Wars Launch Bay stuff.
Star Wars weekends are basically now permanently on with the new stage show and fireworks.
So yes if you count backlot tour, lights motors action and the honey I shrunk playground then the park has lost three attractions, but I doubt any of them are something that people were going especially for.

 

[Ripken10]

Also a factor is that anticipation of upcoming things (Pandora, Toy Story, Star Wars) can have an affect on attendance as well. Some experts would expect an attendance downswing for a company that has major things opening over the next 3 years, as their target audience will delay trips in order to coincide with these openings. While many here will dismiss it, it is something the Disney execs anticipated. Not to explain it all away, but it is a major factor here.

 

[donsullivan]

It would be interesting to include the waterparks in these numbers... and, I think justifiably, to really look at each chain's market shares, you should be including the water parks for fair comparisons... just my thought...

I debated adding the water parks but since we don't see Aquatica data and Volcano bay wasn't open yet, it didn't seem to make sense. I also do not believe TEA will classify VB as a theme park, but as a water park when next years report is released.

 

[seascape]

I think including water parks is the correct way to evaluate Orlando market share. If this were done WDW was under 69 percent and Universal under 25. However we cant be sure how much under without knowing Discovery Bays number.

For 2017, I would ecpect VB to be about egual to WnW. They will benefit from people just going to see it but it will only be open 7 months. Every park at WDW will see an increase and not a small one. Attendance was up 4% through March and because of Pandora will be higher the rest of the year. A 4% increase for the year would be 2.12 million plus around 80,000 at the water parks. Shanghai should be up about 6 to 7 million so company wide its possible for the themeparks to top 150 million in combined attendance, not counting water parks.

 

[Coaster Lover]

I debated adding the water parks but since we don't see Aquatica data and Volcano bay wasn't open yet, it didn't seem to make sense. I also do not believe TEA will classify VB as a theme park, but as a water park when next years report is released.

They have a separate section for water parks and we should see the Volcano Bay numbers in that section next year. Regardless of if they classify Volcano Bay as a theme park or a waterpark (it will be classified as a waterpark in this report regardless of what Universal is marketing it as) you could still make the cumulative value of both the try parks and the water parks to value the chains overall impact. The attendance of Blizzard Beach and Typhoon Lagoon would be added to Disney's numbers. The attendance of Wet 'N Wild should be added to Universal's numbers and when the 2017 report comes out, Wet N' Wild will be replaced by Volcano Bay to add to Universal's numbers. And Aquatica (which is in the report back though when Aquatica first opened in 2008) could be added to Sea World's numbers.

Again, I really like what you have done so far, so this is all just personal opinion (on how I would have personally done it) and not a knock on what you have done.

For those curious, here are the numbers for the Orlando area water parks from 2005-2016:

 

[Kamikaze]

Whilst I don't think the figures are accurate, a 1% drop in market share is still a revenue drop of hundreds of millions of Dollars that Disney are potentially missing out on, so whilst it's minimal, I hope it gives cause for investment.

Interesting to see how Disney deal with Universal preparing their third theme park. Do they go for a fifth? That's where they'll feel the biggest relative shift in market share...when people start feeling they can spend 5days - a week at universal without Disney.

1) According to Disney's own official numbers issued in their quarterly reports, attendance is in fact down, but they are making more revenue on that lower attendance.
2) They will not open a 5th gate.

 

[LuvtheGoof]

1) According to Disney's own official numbers issued in their quarterly reports, attendance is in fact down, but they are making more revenue on that lower attendance.
2) They will not open a 5th gate.

You're looking at an old report then, the latest quarterly reports:
Operating income growth at our domestic parks and resorts was due to higher volumes, driven by increased attendance

 

[Jon81uk]

Does Discovery Cove not count as a waterpark then? That would seriously improve Sea Worlds numbers if that was counted too.

 

[ParentsOf4]

You're looking at an old report then, the latest quarterly reports:
Operating income growth at our domestic parks and resorts was due to higher volumes, driven by increased attendance

Disney's 10K/10Q statements for domestic theme attendance are as follows:

• 4th Quarter fiscal year 2016 (covering October 2015-September 2016): attendance down 1%
• 1st Quarter fiscal year 2017 (covering October-December 2016): attendance down 5%
• 2nd Quarter fiscal year 2017 (covering January-March 2017): attendance up 4%

The TEA report is intended to cover calendar year 2016.

For reference, CFO Christine McCarthy stated the following during the most recent earnings call:

Attendance at our domestic parks was up 4% in the quarter, despite a net adverse impact of about 2 percentage points due to the timing of the winter and Easter holidays.​

 

[Coaster Lover]

Interesting to see how Disney deal with Universal preparing their third theme park. Do they go for a fifth? That's where they'll feel the biggest relative shift in market share...when people start feeling they can spend 5days - a week at universal without Disney.

That's just it... I don't know that Disney would ever add a fifth gate in Orlando simple because of psychological reasons. When people are planning a Florida vacation, they are typically planning a 5-7 day trip. When people look at Universal, they see two theme parks and a water park, calculate in their head a day per park, and automatically assume that they will need to find something else to fill their week and end up using a day at some of the many other Orlando area attractions. As such, Universal get's some of these guests dollars, but not all of their dollars. On the other hand, guests looking at Disney see four theme parks, two water parks, a MASSIVE shopping area and Disney does a wonderful job of marketing that you'll "want to plan at least two days" at the Magic Kingdom. If that isn't enough to convince people to that they can take a full week (without needing to go elsewhere), they do a great job of advertising all of the other non-park options on-site that can fill your time (spas, Bay Lake area water activities, golf, etc).

By adding a fifth gate, you're really not going to increase the amount of time guests stay on property (simply because it's counter-cultural... at least here in the US... to take more than a week's vacation for most people). As such, by adding a fifth gate, all you get is a shift of guests who, now instead of spending two days at EPCOT, spend a day at EPCOT and a day at the new park (or maybe cut a day at one of the water parks in favor of the new park).

By the same prospect, instead of building an entirely new park, there is plenty of room to increase attendance at the current parks (all of them... water parks included) by adding new attractions/new lands which, overall, are much less expensive to implement and easier to incorporate than adding a whole new park.

Universal MUST add a third "dry" park if they want to become the one-stop resort destination that Disney is. Disney's "need" for a fifth gate? Not so much...

 

[LuvtheGoof]

Disney's 10Q statements for domestic theme attendance are as follows:

• 1st Quarter fiscal year 2017 (covering October-December 2016): attendance down 5%
• 2nd Quarter fiscal year 2017 (covering January-March 2017): attendance up 4%

The TEA report is intended to cover calendar year 2016.

True, but as we have pointed out, attendance is back up, and I would expect that trend to continue.

 

[flyerjab]

Honestly, this type of quarterly report is what every Disney diehard fan should hope for - Disney market share down and Uni market share up...significantly.

I always imagine what the Orlando parks would be like right now if UNI had never purchased theme park rights to Harry Potter. Pandora might never have been built, meaning Harambe would not have been as significantly expanded. Changes to DTD might still have happened, but I would question whether Toy Story Land would be happening as well as the apparently LEGIT Star Wars Land we are now getting. Who knows, maybe Staggs would still be here.

I think that Disney sees what the competition is bringing now, and man is UNI swinging - rights, lefts, upper cuts. More rides, better theming, a competitive water park (when it is actually finished and running properly), most likely more Potter...and Nintendo Land hasn't even begun. And that addition will be interesting as I am wondering if they will be having a castle now as the icon for that land...maybe giving them the opportunity for a nighttime fireworks show that actually doesn't suck. Oh, and many more resorts with nice amenities, great service, with lots and lots of rooms to fill.

Disney needed this for their flagship resort in Orlando. Complacency makes a person far too comfortable. I have to think that if this keeps happening, TWDC will keep pushing for growth in Orlando - meaning more rooms, better infrastructure (hello gondolas), better attractions (hello Pandora, Toy Story Land, Star Wars Land, and whatever is happening with Epcot), and even more for MK. They want to market themselves as the masters of themed entertainment? Well, the past 2 to 3 years have been a nice start. And for me, having been a fan only since 2009, Pandora has been the first demonstration for me of what Disney can do when the gloves come off. The money and creativity put into that expansion, coupled with marketing that actually didn't stink, produced a number of incredible new experiences for DAK. I know that a lot of people don't include Disney Springs in any of this, but I feel like they have vastly improved that part of the larger resort with fabulous dining, more live entertainment and shopping. DHS is starting to transform now, with quite possibly the most impressive land (and E-Ticket) ever produced in a theme park (and no, I am not talking about Toy Story Land). And Epcot has been just waiting in the shadows.

I say thank you Comcast, for dumping tons of money into the Orlando parks. And don't let up any time soon.

 

[rd805]

Honestly, this type of quarterly report is what every Disney diehard fan should hope for - Disney market share down and Uni market share up...significantly.

I say thank you Comcast, for dumping tons of money into the Orlando parks. And don't let up any time soon.

My exact thoughts! If Universal can continue % increases, that HAS to make Disney a little worried and hopefully FORCE them to fast track some of these rumored projects.

 

[tirian]

Quoted for truth.

The days when Disney created groundbreaking attractions for the heck of it are over. WDW didn't need a monorail that ran through a hotel, a giant geodesic sphere to hold a ride, or an authentic safari in swampland. The company created those things because it wanted to astound the public. It was the WDI equivalent of saying, "Look Ma, no hands!"

Now we need significant competition to gain Star Wars, Pandora, and other investments. I hope the games stay fierce, because we will benefit.

Honestly, this type of quarterly report is what every Disney diehard fan should hope for - Disney market share down and Uni market share up...significantly.

I always imagine what the Orlando parks would be like right now if UNI had never purchased theme park rights to Harry Potter. Pandora might never have been built, meaning Harambe would not have been as significantly expanded. Changes to DTD might still have happened, but I would question whether Toy Story Land would be happening as well as the apparently LEGIT Star Wars Land we are now getting. Who knows, maybe Staggs would still be here.

I think that Disney sees what the competition is bringing now, and man is UNI swinging - rights, lefts, upper cuts. More rides, better theming, a competitive water park (when it is actually finished and running properly), most likely more Potter...and Nintendo Land hasn't even begun. And that addition will be interesting as I am wondering if they will be having a castle now as the icon for that land...maybe giving them the opportunity for a nighttime fireworks show that actually doesn't suck. Oh, and many more resorts with nice amenities, great service, with lots and lots of rooms to fill.

Disney needed this for their flagship resort in Orlando. Complacency makes a person far too comfortable. I have to think that if this keeps happening, TWDC will keep pushing for growth in Orlando - meaning more rooms, better infrastructure (hello gondolas), better attractions (hello Pandora, Toy Story Land, Star Wars Land, and whatever is happening with Epcot), and even more for MK. They want to market themselves as the masters of themed entertainment? Well, the past 2 to 3 years have been a nice start. And for me, having been a fan only since 2009, Pandora has been the first demonstration for me of what Disney can do when the gloves come off. The money and creativity put into that expansion, coupled with marketing that actually didn't stink, produced a number of incredible new experiences for DAK. I know that a lot of people don't include Disney Springs in any of this, but I feel like they have vastly improved that part of the larger resort with fabulous dining, more live entertainment and shopping. DHS is starting to transform now, with quite possibly the most impressive land (and E-Ticket) ever produced in a theme park (and no, I am not talking about Toy Story Land). And Epcot has been just waiting in the shadows.

I say thank you Comcast, for dumping tons of money into the Orlando parks. And don't let up any time soon.

 

[donsullivan]

They have a separate section for water parks and we should see the Volcano Bay numbers in that section next year. Regardless of if they classify Volcano Bay as a theme park or a waterpark (it will be classified as a waterpark in this report regardless of what Universal is marketing it as) you could still make the cumulative value of both the try parks and the water parks to value the chains overall impact. The attendance of Blizzard Beach and Typhoon Lagoon would be added to Disney's numbers. The attendance of Wet 'N Wild should be added to Universal's numbers and when the 2017 report comes out, Wet N' Wild will be replaced by Volcano Bay to add to Universal's numbers. And Aquatica (which is in the report back though when Aquatica first opened in 2008) could be added to Sea World's numbers.

Again, I really like what you have done so far, so this is all just personal opinion (on how I would have personally done it) and not a knock on what you have done.

For those curious, here are the numbers for the Orlando area water parks from 2005-2016:
View attachment 207892

I'll definitely look to add the water park data set to see what it looks like. It seems to make sense to see water parks alone and then water parks + theme parks for all operators. Now that all 3 are in that business it's a new data set to add going forward.

I'm not sure how much historical data I have on the water parks- I'll need to dig into that. I'm in Europe right now but should have some time on the flight home tomorrow to create the different data views, assuming Internet on the plane is reliable. They'll be useful for next year when we start to see impacts of Pandora and Volcano Bay in the market.