2015 Crowd Level Analysis: Final, Wrapup Edition

[mousehockey37]

The other restriction of course is the booking window for free dining. Disney seem to be be trying to get us Brits to book earlier. On our last trip in 2010 we booked in early 2010 and got free dining. For our 2016 trip the booking period for the offer was May to September 2015, meaning I booked our trip 15 months in advance to get free dining and a free gift card. Currently there aren't many offers out for UK bookings, they are just offering two free nights on a 14 day trip.

How much on the gift card?

 

[PhotoDave219]

Since we're talking about it....

Domestic Free Dining period

• Total of 62 Days. (8/28-10/2, 10/25-10/31, 11/8-11/19, 12/15-12/21)
• WDW Off Peak Crowds: 14 Days
• WDW Average Crowds: 43 Days
• WDW Peak Crowds: 5 Days (3 at Christmastime (Level 10), 1 In November (Level 8) and 1 for Labor Day Weekend (Level 8))

 

[Andrew C]

Since we're talking about it....

Domestic Free Dining period

• Total of 62 Days. (8/28-10/2, 10/25-10/31, 11/8-11/19, 12/15-12/21)
• WDW Off Peak Crowds: 14 Days
• WDW Average Crowds: 43 Days
• WDW Peak Crowds: 5 Days (3 at Christmastime (Level 10), 1 In November (Level 8) and 1 for Labor Day Weekend (Level 8))

Any reason why never in spring?

 

[PhotoDave219]

Any reason why never in spring?

I would suggest that it's because of spring break. Historically, there have been dead periods in the fall.

Back in the day (before free dining), the fall was a glorious time to visit the parks. It was sooooooo nice.

 

[ford91exploder]

You wanna pay for flights from the UK to get free dining? Hehe

Considering DL is $503 pp LHR to MCO its not that much more than flying in the states

 

[ItlngrlBella]

Disney reported a 7% increase in domestic attendance in the 4th quarter, excluding the effect of a 53rd week this business year. Looking at just 52 weeks, domestic attendance was up 5% for the year.

On a per theme park basis, WDW was the most crowded it's been since it was just the Magic Kingdom in the late 1970s:

View attachment 124959

Crowds are not evenly distributed, with the Magic Kingdom leading the pack by far. Of course, the Magic Kingdom saw only 14.1M Guests in 1978, practically empty by today's standards.

The last 3 times per theme park attendance got this high, Disney added another park.

Yes, I know, Disney needs to "fix" its existing parks. That's a given and Disney is in the process of doing exactly that. However, it's not an either-or proposition. As I've written before, WDW needs to fix its parks and add capacity in the coming decade.

Unless they are going for the Tokyo Disneyland Resort thing, where attendance between the 2 parks averages over 15M annually.

Of course, TDL doesn't have DHS or DAK. Those 2 parks would do really well with 15M people every day.

AMEN to that! ^^^^

 

[djlaosc]

How much on the gift card?

$200 to start with, then it goes down to $100, then you no longer get one - all depends on the date that you book.

 

[Jon81uk]

How much on the gift card?

When I booked it was $200. Then after the first two months of the promotion they were offering $100.

The other difference with the UK Free dining is that you get breakfast (one QS credit) at a value, Quick Service dining plan at a moderate and regular DDP at a deluxe (including DVC villa).
Whereas USA free dining still gives QSDP at value and regular DDP at moderate and above.


(Side note, we have an extra room credit due to the construction at Wilderness Lodge so got plenty of spending money and free dining too this trip!!)

 

[The Mighty Tim]

Was a lot higher before 08.
It was nearly $2 to the pound when my family first visited, then later moved to America.

Those were the days!

 

[AEfx]

So in spite of FP+, and getting rid of GAC's (which some folks were absolutely convinced was going to make a major difference in attraction wait times), wait times are up and not down.

Thankfully, WDW hasn't done away with free ketchup packets, so folks can at least drown out that taste of crow.

 

[PhotoDave219]

So in spite of FP+, and getting rid of GAC's (which some folks were absolutely convinced was going to make a major difference in attraction wait times), wait times are up and not down.

Thankfully, WDW hasn't done away with free ketchup packets, so folks can at least drown out that taste of crow.

Well..... the way its been explained to me by one of my Bothan Spies is that FP+ data is being used as one of the components for Labor Forecasting, in addition to historical data, bookings, etc.

Basically they want to staff with as few CMs as possible in an effort to cut costs.

 

[indigo]

Disney parks have always kept a close eye on labor hours. To have a tool that lets them forecast so accurately must make them delirious. Since bonuses are usually paid on a combination of keeping labor hours low and efficiency high (read: sales numbers), there is a perverse incentive for Disney management to keep capacity low as well. We see this in that even the 'expansion' at the MK really just leveled out capacity numbers for the park.

Disney shoots for a number of attractions per day for the average guest (let's call this Rides per Capita - RPC). Usually they target somewhere between 9 and 10 RPC, because surveys tell them that's the optimum number to generate repeat business. Fastpass+ allow Disney's resort guests to more easily meet that number by giving them a head start on 4 attractions (3 FP at 60 days and 1 in the park kiosks) and extra magic hours (which they've been able to reduce and still make their RPC goals). Also include the fact that Disney considers its entertainment (like parades and shows, but also streetmosphere and bands) to be an attraction. When the RPC number for a park gets high, Disney cuts labor to artificially increase wait times and remove entertainment options. Without things to do keeping guests out of queues, the wait times then get longer and the RPC number starts to drop.

It's possible that Disney has moved its target RPC down, meaning they believe guests will be happy with just 8 or 9 attraction experiences a day. If this is the case they wouldn't see longer waits as a problem.

 

[cdeev8690]

Wow, this is an incredibly impressive presentation of data. Thank you so much for the time and effort as its value will prove itself when we are all trying to track the crowd trends while attempting to book our future trips. Based on your data, I feel very comfortable now with my decision to give myself a break from WDW.

 

[Chris82]

The question that I'm having trouble answering is : "How much are the crowds increasing?" Instead I found the answer of: "No Idea but you're waiting in line dramatically longer than last year."

Thanks for your really interesting analysis!

This may be a dumb question, but are these numbers based on reported standby times alone? In principle, with MM+, people ought to get at least 3 FastPass lines per day, which in some cases (Space Mountain, Seven Dwarfs) are fairly lengthy themselves and feel like the "real" line. If we had FastPass wait times, maybe we could average in the three (hopefully) shorter attraction lines and things would look a little better? I doubt that it would be in any way equivalent to 2013 levels, as WDW felt far more slammed this winter than it ever has in my experience, but I wonder if it would mitigate things at least a little.

 

[71jason]

So in spite of FP+, and getting rid of GAC's (which some folks were absolutely convinced was going to make a major difference in attraction wait times), wait times are up and not down.

FP+ was never going to lower standby lines, it was always going to increase them. The fact it was added to unnecessary attractions like PotC or LwtL should tell you WDW was well-aware of this fact all along.

Remember, in the early 00s, Universal did away with its "free FP" option (legacy FP in all but name). Wait times immediately dropped, often by half, and only climb back to the old wait times when the park is at or near record capacity, i.e. probably double the number of guests they used to hold.

Ultimately, the exact number of guests in the park doesn't mean nearly as much as the exact number of guests plus the number of "phantom" FP doppelganger guests. The latter is what drives up waits.

 

[Chris82]

Ultimately, the exact number of guests in the park doesn't mean nearly as much as the exact number of guests plus the number of "phantom" FP doppelganger guests. The latter is what drives up waits.

Interesting - but I'm feeling a little dense here. What do you mean by "phantom" FP doppelganger guests?

 

[PhotoDave219]

Thanks for your really interesting analysis!

This may be a dumb question, but are these numbers based on reported standby times alone? In principle, with MM+, people ought to get at least 3 FastPass lines per day, which in some cases (Space Mountain, Seven Dwarfs) are fairly lengthy themselves and feel like the "real" line. If we had FastPass wait times, maybe we could average in the three (hopefully) shorter attraction lines and things would look a little better? I doubt that it would be in any way equivalent to 2013 levels, as WDW felt far more slammed this winter than it ever has in my experience, but I wonder if it would mitigate things at least a little.

The numbers are straight from Touring Plans Observed/historical data.

 

[The Tuna]

Went back in November, after halloween and before Thanksgiving. The amount of people in all of the parks blew my mind. We generally go in the fall when it is dead and it is not. We had a couple of days after food and wine where it wasn't too bad but on a whole I would say it was 50% busier than two years ago. Walking the parks was tough due to crowds, lines were double what they were two years ago. I still enjoyed myself but I dont go there to stand in lines for 45 minutes to get a hamburger at Cosmic Ray's, which I had to do twice. Something has to give crowd wise.

As many have mentioned you pretty much have 3 half parks and MK. I love EPCOT for the food and beverages but don't generally find much to do ride wise. What you can ride is either run down and old or has a 75 minutes wait. DAK should help once Avatar comes online as it will have a decent attraction lineup. DHS again will help but that is at least a couple of years away as well. Too static for too long at WDW as far as attractions go. Here's hoping for a decade of improvements and then some continued momentum in the future.

As a stark contrast at UO we walked on to many rides and had minimal waits for others. Even Gringott's was only half an hour and Transformers 20 minutes. Forbidden Journey was 10. I love both sets of parks for different reasons, but I don't like waiting in line for rides or food at any of them.

 

[71jason]

Interesting - but I'm feeling a little dense here. What do you mean by "phantom" FP doppelganger guests?

If you have a FP, that 35 minutes you'd wait for Space Mountain you spend wandering the park. But your "spot" in line is still being held, essentially allowing you to be two places at once. What it comes down to is even if parks aren't more crowded, lines are longer the more FP is used. MM+ increased FP usage without question, this is the result.

 

[Chris82]

If you have a FP, that 35 minutes you'd wait for Space Mountain you spend wandering the park. But your "spot" in line is still being held, essentially allowing you to be two places at once. What it comes down to is even if parks aren't more crowded, lines are longer the more FP is used. MM+ increased FP usage without question, this is the result.

Ok thanks - I think I got it!

To me, the important metrics would be number of rides averaged per guest as well as total time spent in queues per guest. Standby line times go up with FastPass, clearly - the real question is, what is the effect on those other two metrics?

It would seem Disney is betting on an increase in number of rides and a decrease in total time spent in queues - I would wager that FastPass just shuffles everything around without fundamentally affecting either of those metrics. Granted, there may be a psychological benefit to skipping 3 lines per day even if it means waiting another half hour for every other ride, but I'm not sure about that. Any psychological benefit to skipping a line with FastPass is also greatly limited when you discover that the "FastPass" line is somehow still brutally long lol

Or are there variables I'm not thinking about here?