2015 Crowd Level Analysis: Final, Wrapup Edition

[PhotoDave219]

That is how 2015 looked. One teeny-tiny slow period.

So a look at Crowd levels, 2015. Final Edition. (As usual, all data pulled from the Observed Data of Touring Plans. If you have a problem with how they collect their data, take it up with Len. I’m fine with their methodology)

Other terms I use: Off Peak is a day categorized as a crowd level of 1-3 by TP, Average is 4-7 and Peak is 8+. The other stat I use is a -5/6+, the number of days the park was either Average and below (-5) or Above average (6+). (Off-Peak are generally really nice days in the park, average is simply that, average and Peak days are likely insane and rather unpleasant)

Why am I talking in Peak/Average/Off-Peak? Because Disney went to Tiered Pricing. (which for our long time readers this year started me down this path.)

The biggest thing to remind everyone is that this is all based on wait times. Wait times don’t necessarily reflect attendance, it recognizes whether or not the lines are long. Several factors determine that: Bodies in the Park, Labor & Staffing, attempted CM manipulation, Weather, FP+, etc. (Again, take it up with the source of the data if you have a problem)

Lets jump right in to the Oct-Dec Numbers (aka 1QFY16)…. They're up, ridiculously so.

Magic Kingdom. 2015: 5 Days off-peak, 39 days average, 48 days peak out of 92 days for the quarter. 25 days average or below, 67 days above average for 2015. 52% of the quarter showed a peak crowd.

For comparison to 2014…. Same period has 26 off-peak days. 48 average and 18 peak. -/+ was 48/44

For Comparison to 2013…. Same period had 34 off-peak days, 47 average and 11 peak. -/+ was 62/30

Epcot. 2015: 3 Days Off-Peak. 65 days average. 24 days peak. -/+ was 35/57.

For Comparison to 2014…. Same Period has 24 off peak, 48 Average and 20 peak. -/+ was 59/33.

For Comparison to 2013…. Same Period has 36 off-peak, 42 Average and 14 peak. -/+ was 68/24


DHS. 9 Days off-peak. 39 Average and 44 Peak. -/+ was 22/70.


For Comparison to 2014…. Same Period has 24 Off-peak, 45 Average and 23 peak. -/+ was 51/41.


For Comparison to 2013…. Same Period has 43 Off Peak, 40 Average and 9 Peak. -/+ was 67/25.


DAK. 25 Days Off-Peak. 40 Average and 27 Peak. -/+ was 45/47.


For Comparison to 2014…. Same Period has 38 Off-Peak, 40 Average and 14 Peak. -/+ was 58/34.


For Comparison to 2013…. Same Period has 40 Off-Peak, 40 Average and 12 Peak. -/+ was 63/29.


The biggest take-away? You’re waiting in line a lot longer this quarter than in years past, which was the trend all year.

The Attendance Curves pretty much follow one another year after year, just with 2015 slightly higher.

2015 Overall


The numbers have shifted up so drastically, its just not worth giving with any further commentary. Things changed this year and its not good for the guest. For whatever reason, you’re waiting in line longer and longer.

WDW as a whole pulled 66 Off Peak/198 Average / 101 Peak days.


2014: 74 off-peak / 248 Average / 43 Peak


2013: 117 Off-peak / 193 Average / 55 Peak.

This is the frequency of the number of days MK reached that level. 45 days of a crowd level of 10.

MK: 58 off / 163 Avg / 144 Peak. (39.5% of the year MK pulled a crowd of 8+)


2014: 69 off / 244 Avg / 52 Peak.


2013: 88 off / 215 Avg / 62 Peak

Epcot: 87 off /192 Avg / 86 peak


2014: 97 off / 219 Avg / 49 peak


2013: 130 off / 181 Avg / 54 peak

DHS: 94 off / 148 Avg / 123 Peak. (Thats insane, IMO)


2014: 124 off / 193 Avg / 48 Peak


2013: 147 off / 162 Avg / 56 Peak

DAK: 97 Off / 180 Avg / 88 Peak


2014: 111 Off / 203 Avg / 51 Peak


2013 137 off / 169 Avg / 59 Peak

MK Maingate Blackouts totaled 202, or 55.3% of the year. 47 of those days were Average or Below. 13 were off-peak. Out of those 13, 8 were a level of 3 and 5 were a 1 or a 2. So at least 6.5% of the time blacked out, it does not seem to be called for. (Which is a 2.5% improvement over last year, see below)

Conversely.... 100 of the 202 blackouts pulled a peak crowd, so 49.5% of the time it was easily justified. (A whopping 25% improvement over last year)

For 2014 comparison, total of 153 blackouts. 14 were off peak and 38 were peak. Meaning, 9% of the blackouts weren't really needed while 24.9% of the time, they were totally justified.

Other Interesting Tidbits..... (That mostly reinforce common knowledge)

The best days to visit were Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday as when the parks were slow, they were the slowest.

The worst days to visit were Monday and Tuesday as when the parks were busy, they were the worst.

January and February were the slowest. June and July were the busiest.

So your best bet? Midweek in January and February if you want to visit this place.

The overall analysis? You're waiting longer. You're paying more to do so.

There's only been a 4% rise in attendance overall domestically. These numbers don't reflect a 4% increase in your wait rather it shows a whole lot more. There are indications that FP+ data is a component with forecasting attendance and a component of labor needed, and there’s a distinct likelyhood that is the prime reason why these numbers are so bloody high. (FWIW, Iger announced a 4% growth in Domestic Attendance during the Q4FY15 Conference Call)

Also.... and we've been over this before.... these numbers simply do not support the tiered/demand/surge pricing structure. Not one bit.

See you at the end of the Quarter for more Charts!

 

[Rodan75]

Great analysis! But I don't understand the conclusion on surge pricing?

 

[PhotoDave219]

Great analysis! But I don't understand the conclusion on surge pricing?

Well, there really isn't a third tier. There's Super Busy and Downright Insane. The rest of the time, you got lucky.

 

[Rodan75]

Well, there really isn't a third tier. There's Super Busy and Downright Insane. The rest of the time, you got lucky.

Gotcha. Yeah, but I could still see them doing it to squeeze more $$ out of insane time periods.

 

[Jimmy Thick]

Eventually you will have to blame MM+ for giving people a false sense of security towards moving faster through lines. Now that is been fully implemented either its not working as intended or it is but people not in fastpass lines are paying the price.

I wonder if the bands actually are bringing in the novice WDW traveller who thinks it will get them through attractions quicker?

In any case, someone will always be waiting.

Jimmy Thick- Case closed.

 

[OvertheHorizon]

Thanks, PhotoDave, for all of your time and energy on this analysis!

 

[wm49rs]

Eventually you will have to blame MM+ for giving people a false sense of security towards moving faster through lines. Now that is been fully implemented either its not working as intended or it is but people not in fastpass lines are paying the price.

I wonder if the bands actually are bringing in the novice WDW traveller who thinks it will get them through attractions quicker?

In any case, someone will always be waiting.

Jimmy Thick- Case closed.

That you're thick? Absolutely. Anything else above that? Just more troglodytic b#ll#cks....

 

[wdisney9000]

Great breakdown, Dave.

This definitely does not help make 2016 seem like a good year to take a trip. Unless your one of those people who get a warm fuzzy feeling when the mickey head lights up green and you count that as an attraction. Money well spent on NGE.

 

[Mike C]

All the Orlando pars were up l, with Sea World having the most slow periods. October was much higher crowds this year than before, particularly at Disney and Universal. The slowest week all year for all the parks was the very last week in August. The week following it went back up. Other low periods corresponded with bad weather.

 

[Clamman73]

Would be curious to see a chart of discounts/promotions offered for domestic and international travelers to WDW for the past five years and how that relates to attendance...whether it's a direct correlation to that, or just people as a whole in a better financial position to visit.

 

[Matt_Black]

All the Orlando pars were up l, with Sea World having the most slow periods.

Not terribly surprising. I imagine that's due to some of the fallout from the Blackfish documentary.

 

[Rhinocerous]

Could this be a means of artificially inflating the numbers to justify a higher percentage of top-tier pricing?

 

[GhostHost1000]

Great analysis. Maybe Disney needs to be expanding quicker

Fix improve and expand what they have and then build a new water park and a 5th park. (runs and ducks for cover)

 

[Thelazer]

Eh, I didn't need charts to tell me that FP, FP+ and MMB's were going to screw with the wait times and push them UP not down.. then again I don't work in the marble lined halls and I don't put profits before guest service.

 

[PhotoDave219]

Eh, I didn't need charts to tell me that FP, FP+ and MMB's were going to screw with the wait times and push them UP not down.. then again I don't work in the marble lined halls and I don't put profits before guest service.

Well, originally it was about crowd levels and seeing how busy the parks were.... And then it became something else because of how drastically things changed this year

 

[PhotoDave219]

Would be curious to see a chart of discounts/promotions offered for domestic and international travelers to WDW for the past five years and how that relates to attendance...whether it's a direct correlation to that, or just people as a whole in a better financial position to visit.

That I've been trying to track down and all I have is the periods for Domestic (US) Free Dining.

 

[PhotoDave219]

Also it will be really interesting one year from now to see what the FP+ influenced data looks like compared to one another.

 

[ParentsOf4]

Well, originally it was about crowd levels and seeing how busy the parks were.... And then it became something else because of how drastically things changed this year

Disney reported a 7% increase in domestic attendance in the 4th quarter, excluding the effect of a 53rd week this business year. Looking at just 52 weeks, domestic attendance was up 5% for the year.

On a per theme park basis, WDW was the most crowded it's been since it was just the Magic Kingdom in the late 1970s:

Crowds are not evenly distributed, with the Magic Kingdom leading the pack by far. Of course, the Magic Kingdom saw only 14.1M Guests in 1978, practically empty by today's standards.

The last 3 times per theme park attendance got this high, Disney added another park.

Yes, I know, Disney needs to "fix" its existing parks. That's a given and Disney is in the process of doing exactly that. However, it's not an either-or proposition. As I've written before, WDW needs to fix its parks and add capacity in the coming decade.

Unless they are going for the Tokyo Disneyland Resort thing, where attendance between the 2 parks averages over 15M annually.

Of course, TDL doesn't have DHS or DAK. Those 2 parks would do really well with 15M people every day.

 

[KeeKee]

That's an amazing amount of data. Impressive presentation, too. The information about the months/days of the week to visit will be very useful. I have four months on the current AP and don't plan to renew for the foreseeable future. Good to know there are a few days left to try another visit before time runs out on the AP.

 

[KikoKea]

Thanks, PhotoDave219 for your efforts. Very interesting to see the numbers, although from our visits- always in supposed "slower" off season times- we've noticed a big increase in the crowds.