Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[Chi84]

That only works if enough people get vaccinated or they go the route of requiring proof of vaccination. Either way I doubt much will change before the end of the year

"Doubt much" is fine - I was responding to the 100% guarantee. As far as things changing by the end of the year, like it or not they are changing now despite the number of cases and the appearance of a more transmissible strain. I sincerely hope Joe Biden can say something that will persuade people who get the vaccine to continue to follow mitigation efforts until most of us have the ability to get vaccinated.

 

[seabreezept813]

Anything involving proof of vaccination is likely not going to happen until the fall, possibly end of summer at the earliest. I could actually see the NFL being one of the first major public venues that require it. They are for sure going to want to have full crowds next season and if the public health trend isn’t there yet to do that without restriction that would be a place I could see requiring proof. I do wonder if colleges will require it. That would almost be a no brainer since they are desperate to get back to full on campus learning. Obviously things like cruise lines would be on board and also likely international travel too. I don’t see a time where things like retail stores or bars/clubs require it. More like one off, unique situations where you are at highest risk of exposure. I am hopeful it never comes to this anyway and enough people get vaccinated that it never becomes an issue to need proof. I do agree it will be a while before anyone implements that.

The Michael Buble concert I was supposed to attend last March has been pushed back three times. The most recent date is late August. Our fingers are crossed this is the magic date, but we’re just glad they didn’t outright cancel it. I’d be down with proof of vaccination, it’s sad but I think that’s what it will take for some people to do the right thing.

 

[Jrb1979]

"Doubt very much" is fine - I was responding to the 100% guarantee. As far as things changing by the end of the year, like it or not they are changing now despite the number of cases and the appearance of a more transmissible strain. I sincerely hope Joe Biden can say something that will persuade people who get the vaccine to continue to follow mitigation efforts until most of us have the ability to get vaccinated.

My response I feel bad for our neighbors to the south. Things continue to get worse and with this new strain its going to get worse.

 

[GoofGoof]

The Michael Buble concert I was supposed to attend last March has been pushed back three times. The most recent date is late August. Our fingers are crossed this is the magic date, but we’re just glad they didn’t outright cancel it. I’d be down with proof of vaccination, it’s sad but I think that’s what it will take for some people to do the right thing.

Yes, concerts would be another good place for potential proof of vaccination. I don’t see it in every day life like going to the grocery store or a bar or restaurant but large crowd venues it could for sure be required and nobody can argue you have to go to a concert or a football game. It’s a fun, non-essential thing so if someone doesn’t want to comply they just skip it.

I am hopeful enough progress will have happened with the vaccines by August that maybe they can have concerts or baseball games or football a month later safely without even requiring proof. I may be overly optimistic, but this slow start has probably skewed public sentiment pretty negatively. I think we can improve.

 

[Jrb1979]

Yes, concerts would be another good place for potential proof of vaccination. I don’t see it in every day life like going to the grocery store or a bar or restaurant but large crowd venues it could for sure be required and nobody can argue you have to go to a concert or a football game. It’s a fun, non-essential thing so if someone doesn’t want to comply they just skip it.

I am hopeful enough progress will have happened with the vaccines by August that maybe they can have concerts or baseball games or football a month later safely without even requiring proof. I may be overly optimistic, but this slow start has probably skewed public sentiment pretty negatively. I think we can improve.

I'm doubtful of that. I have a feeling anything that requires large gatherings will require proof of vaccination. That will go for traveling too.

 

[HarperRose]

I 100% guarantee there is absolutely no way the entire adult population is vaccinated ever. In the latest polling 20% of people still say they will never get the vaccine. Best case is 80% vaccinated but probably 70-75% would be good depending on if/when children get approved. It’s still conceivable to have 200M+ vaccinated by end of June. It would be really difficult to achieve with just Pfizer and Moderna alone, you would need flawless manufacturing and delivery for 6 months which is unlikely, but you have JnJ, AstraZeneca, and Novavax all also potentially getting approved between now and the end of June. It’s too soon to say whether we will have the supply to meet that goal. Too many variables.

On the vaccination side I think it’s conceivable to ramp up quickly. We are fast approaching 1M vaccinations a day and most of the large chains aren’t even involved yet. In that article posted earlier, CVS alone said they have the capacity to do 1M shots a day so its conceivable that when you add in all the other chains you could double that and then add in large stadium sites and/or hospitals or medical centers doing it and I don’t think it’s far fetched to assume we could ramp up to 3M vaccinations a day. As posted earlier that’s the peak level of daily vaccinations for flu shots so we have reached that level without billions in federal funding. If we have the doses, once this is ramped up fully I think it will be supply delays that will cause bottlenecks not inability to vaccinate fast enough.

A major factor you're forgetting is people. Three million shots a day takes an unbelievable amount of trained manpower. Right now, it isn't available.

 

[willtravel]

I freely admit that I do not understand the whole Covid vaccine procedure. But if a state is shipped let's say 5 doses of the first shot that they should have in stock equal amount of the second shot for those same people? And do you have to take the first shot then the second or can you just take the second shot? Is this kinda like the pneumonia shot?

 

[HarperRose]

Anything involving proof of vaccination is likely not going to happen until the fall, possibly end of summer at the earliest. I could actually see the NFL being one of the first major public venues that require it. They are for sure going to want to have full crowds next season and if the public health trend isn’t there yet to do that without restriction that would be a place I could see requiring proof. I do wonder if colleges will require it. That would almost be a no brainer since they are desperate to get back to full on campus learning. Obviously things like cruise lines would be on board and also likely international travel too. I don’t see a time where things like retail stores or bars/clubs require it. More like one off, unique situations where you are at highest risk of exposure. I am hopeful it never comes to this anyway and enough people get vaccinated that it never becomes an issue to need proof. I do agree it will be a while before anyone implements that.

I'm curious to see how the Summer Olympics in Japan will be handled as far as athletes and spectators and what their covid practices/requirements will be. They know people are coming from all over the world and may potentially start another massive outbreak.

 

[GoofGoof]

I'm doubtful of that. I have a feeling anything that requires large gatherings will require proof of vaccination. That will go for traveling too.

I guess we will see. It’s possible that the vaccine will not be approved by August for all children or pregnant women so it’s possible that a concert venue or ballpark or theme park would require it and just exclude those people from attending but I don’t see that going over too well. In the case of WDW would they just ban kids under 12 or under 5 if we get the next level of children approved? That doesn’t seem likely to me. Once the vaccine is available to everyone it will likely be the fall or end of 2021. I’m still hopeful that by then cases will have dropped enough that you wouldn’t need proof of vaccination anyway. Similar to how New Zealand was since the summer.

 

[HarperRose]

The Michael Buble concert I was supposed to attend last March has been pushed back three times. The most recent date is late August. Our fingers are crossed this is the magic date, but we’re just glad they didn’t outright cancel it. I’d be down with proof of vaccination, it’s sad but I think that’s what it will take for some people to do the right thing.

We were were supposed to go to a MB concert last March, too. It was rescheduled to this Feb and then again to Sept 2021. We got a refund.

 

[GoofGoof]

A major factor you're forgetting is people. Three million shots a day takes an unbelievable amount of trained manpower. Right now, it isn't available.

CVS said they have 90,000 employees ready to be used in their 10,000+ retail locations and that they can do 1M vaccinations a day. Right now they are only involved in limited use at LTC facilities. In the fall they announced hiring 10,000 additional workers for vaccine ramp up. If we are close to 1M shots a day without CVS ramped up that’s likely to double with them. Then add in Walgreens, Walmart and other chains which all hired people too. In addition the new proposed bill has billions for hiring additional workers as well. I think the manpower is there, as the article posted earlier said, we do 3M flu shots a day at peak time so it’s possible to do it if we have the doses.

 

[GoofGoof]

I'm curious to see how the Summer Olympics in Japan will be handled as far as athletes and spectators and what their covid practices/requirements will be. They know people are coming from all over the world and may potentially start another massive outbreak.

I don’t see them delaying again. I could see them having very strict protocols around the Olympic Village area, like the NBA bubble in Orlando but I have no idea what they do about fans. Maybe require either proof of vaccination or a negative Covid test plus short quarantine after arriving. Tough call and worst case scenario for an island nation that has the ability to more easily shut its borders to outsiders if you aren’t encouraging potentially millions to fly in for an event from all over the world.

 

[Disney Experience]

Edit:
@willtravel: ( I somehow quoted the wrong message that was one adter yours) I meant ti respond to your message.
/edit


The doses are the same for first and second shots (Moderna and Pfizer). Astrazeneca mistakenly gave different doses between first and second shots to some participants in their Phase 3 trials.( They had higher efficacy with that and may go forward with that).

JnJ is one shot so does not apply ( They are experimenting with two shots).

 

[Disney Experience]

Yes, concerts would be another good place for potential proof of vaccination. I don’t see it in every day life like going to the grocery store or a bar or restaurant but large crowd venues it could for sure be required and nobody can argue you have to go to a concert or a football game. It’s a fun, non-essential thing so if someone doesn’t want to comply they just skip it.

I am hopeful enough progress will have happened with the vaccines by August that maybe they can have concerts or baseball games or football a month later safely without even requiring proof. I may be overly optimistic, but this slow start has probably skewed public sentiment pretty negatively. I think we can improve.

I have season tickets to the Broadway shows at the Orlando Dr. Phillips center for the arts, someday they will actually reopen Broadway in Orlando. But for now they are being cancelled or pushed back with annual season ticket charges rolling into the future. I think the first show now is scheduled for June. I expected we may not be far enough along in vaccination for that date to stand.

So many industries devastated by the pandemic.

 

[danlb_2000]

I freely admit that I do not understand the whole Covid vaccine procedure. But if a state is shipped let's say 5 doses of the first shot that they should have in stock equal amount of the second shot for those same people? And do you have to take the first shot then the second or can you just take the second shot? Is this kinda like the pneumonia shot?

I believe the first and second does of both Pfizer and Moderna are the same, so you can't skip the "first dose". There is no requirement for states to hold on to a second dose, but they may choose to do so if they are concerned about being able to get the second dose when needed.

 

[DCBaker]

Numbers are out - there were 205 new reported deaths, along with 6 Non-Florida Resident deaths.

 

[DCBaker]

Current Florida vaccine report -

 

[oceanbreeze77]

there is a conspiracy theory making the rounds on social media about hospitals and covid in Broward County for next week. Just an FYI.

 

[Disney Experience]

More covid modeling (SIRD) info (From August timeframe) for those curious about it. ( Including R0, and how everyone is an armchair modeler )

https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/slides-sird.pdf

 

[jmp85]

can I ask how you came upon it?? Been trying

Combination of luck and knowing someone. A friend mentioned that their pharmacy had been administering the extra (already opened) doses to older folks (65+) or those with underlying conditions, but the trick is you needed to be there with your sleeve up within the hour. I told them (half jokingly) that I'd take one of those extra doses and I could provide prescriptions for hypertension and cholesterol. They ended up texting me that they had some available and I was able to leave work and get it. They mentioned they'd pretty much vaccinated all the medical workers and those over 75 who wanted the vaccine, but a lot of people either 1) didn't want it or 2) wanted to wait and see what happened to other people. They said based on what they're seeing, it'll be widely available sooner than later just due to the number of people who are hesitant.