Is Disney Losing DVC Members/Contracts due to Covid??

Mainahman

Well-Known Member
Certain other categories can go very quickly and may require some walking.

BWV standard view (not sure about Boardwalk view); BLT standard view; AKL club level.

And you really can’t judge general availability by today’s availability either. Normally by now October to mid Jan would be pretty much gone everywhere.
If i were to look, id want something at AKL i think. Seems to be up our alley ( we will know here in a month, when we arrive at Kidani for a week) we always go each year for a week, but the way my wife is talking, i could see her maybe being in for a shorter long weekend resort only stay just to get away kind of thing too,
 

nickys

Premium Member
If i were to look, id want something at AKL i think. Seems to be up our alley ( we will know here in a month, when we arrive at Kidani for a week) we always go each year for a week, but the way my wife is talking, i could see her maybe being in for a shorter long weekend resort only stay just to get away kind of thing too,
AKL would be perfect for a resort only stay. I didn’t want to draw attention to the usual programme of activities at Jambo when we know they’ll not be on whilst you’re there, but I could happily spend 3 or 4 days and not run out of things to do. The afternoons into evenings especially.
 

Mainahman

Well-Known Member
AKL would be perfect for a resort only stay. I didn’t want to draw attention to the usual programme of activities at Jambo when we know they’ll not be on whilst you’re there, but I could happily spend 3 or 4 days and not run out of things to do. The afternoons into evenings especially.
Thats what ive seen, and read about. For me ill be happy with Bread Service, and Animals. To be honest id be content to rock in a rocking chair watching the giraffes while sipping a cocktail from the pool bar. We have never stayed at anything above a Value, mostly because we are park nomads. we can afford to, we just never do. Disney upgraded us to Kidani as our resort was to be closed for our trip. Were both excited to check it out, and honestly the more and more we go, i could see a 6 night stay with only 4 park days, and 2 entire days at the resort... Im eyeing a more relaxed trip honestly. We will see how we like Kidani. Were in a 2 bedroom Villa standard view. Were really excited.
 

Tiggerish

Resident Redhead
Premium Member
It also shows that when calculating the points you need to buy, you should never rely on the cheapest category of rooms being available. Always allow for the next level up.

And by “category“ we’re talking “view”.

At BLT, look at the lake view points charts
At BVW, look at the pool/garden view points charts
At AKL, look at the standard view points charts
and so on.

Good advice. When we purchased, we went with enough points to get a 1BR at our home resort at our preferred time of year to visit (May), and that's how we came to 220. Over the years, we rarely stayed in a 1BR for a week at OKW. There was one year where we did something like six long weekends in studios at various resorts. Studios work for us everywhere but OKW, because there are just the two of us and we like to sit on a sofa when we watch TV! :D
 

CastAStone

5th gate? Just build a new resort Bob.
Premium Member
It seems reasonably likely that more contracts will come on the market than usual in the next year, both due to people annoyed with everything (closures, points glut, expiring points, inability to rent, etc) and deciding its time to sell, and due to the recession.

It also seems reasonably likely that demand will be reduced considerably, for the same reasons, and also because with fewer people at WDW fewer people will "catch the bug".

If a drop in prices is caused by excess supply, Disney will be unable to support prices via ROFR, as they simply aren't in a position to buy up a ton of contracts. Anything they buy they need to sell, and they are already offering incentives on 5 sold out resorts as it is, an indication that their demand is already too low. Offering incentives on sold out resorts isn't something they've done in at least 10 years.

As a result I think a return to 2016ish prices within 12 months is fairly likely. Possibly lower.
PS here’s a Link to 2016 DVC resale prices for those who’d like a reference point. Note that Poly was higher at the time than it is now due to being new.

 

CastAStone

5th gate? Just build a new resort Bob.
Premium Member

Club Cooloholic

Well-Known Member
It seems reasonably likely that more contracts will come on the market than usual in the next year, both due to people annoyed with everything (closures, points glut, expiring points, inability to rent, etc) and deciding its time to sell, and due to the recession.

It also seems reasonably likely that demand will be reduced considerably, for the same reasons, and also because with fewer people at WDW fewer people will "catch the bug".

If a drop in prices is caused by excess supply, Disney will be unable to support prices via ROFR, as they simply aren't in a position to buy up a ton of contracts. Anything they buy they need to sell, and they are already offering incentives on 5 sold out resorts as it is, an indication that their demand is already too low. Offering incentives on sold out resorts isn't something they've done in at least 10 years.

As a result I think a return to 2016ish prices within 12 months is fairly likely. Possibly lower.
Exactly. They have a lot on their plate, buying up contracts is nof something they are jumping at, unless....they think current owners will jump at the chance to buy discounted points directly(disney buys say AKV 200 points from a resale deal at 100 then turns around and sells them at 130. Nice profit.
 

Club Cooloholic

Well-Known Member
I could see us doing this. Do our yearly "lets do the parks" trip, and then do a long weekend ( we live 11 hours tops) from the gates, for just the resort, and relaxation.
We have 150 points, and go around every 2 years which let's us combine points from years and not be want really for more. If we got more it would be to do more trips with family and cover expenses for them.
 

correcaminos

Well-Known Member
I sold two 50 point contracts last year (SSR and OKW) that I had only held for 3 years and made a nice little profit. That I immediately used to buy another contract at a resort I preferred more.
That's awesome! Sorry if I confused, I was meaning selling now vs a while ago. As time goes on with this, it's going to turn into a buyer's market, not a seller's market as it has been though
 

correcaminos

Well-Known Member
If i were to look, id want something at AKL i think. Seems to be up our alley ( we will know here in a month, when we arrive at Kidani for a week) we always go each year for a week, but the way my wife is talking, i could see her maybe being in for a shorter long weekend resort only stay just to get away kind of thing too,
AKL is one we've intentionally cut park days just to enjoy. I do prefer savanna views if doing that, but it is so peaceful particularity at Kindani and usually a lot to do.
 

cmwade77

Well-Known Member
But that is not guaranteed. Let's say the economy is so bad that when you put your $1 contract on the market, nobody wants it. DVC is not going to come along and buy it either.

But, you say, SOMEBODY will want a contract for $1. Maybe, maybe not. Hopefully that time never comes, but there are other timeshares out there are are being offered for $1, and they are sitting on the market.
I will happily buy a 200-300 point contract for even $1 a point.
 

CastAStone

5th gate? Just build a new resort Bob.
Premium Member
I will happily buy a 200-300 point contract for even $1 a point.
I mean, if you’re feeling adventurous and you are exceptionally flexible with travel dates you can buy certain Hilton contracts for about that and trade them in via RCI for off season 7 nights in an SSR 1BR. Standard room of course.
 

Phonedave

Well-Known Member
You and me both.

That is because you are employed and have the funds tor the dues. Depending on the economic environment, that well can run dry.

Right now, I would buy a $1 contract as well, for maybe 200 points, but not much more. I don't need more points, and frankly I can't use more points. I can only get down to WDW so many times a year. A trip to WDW costs me money, even with DVC. Who knows where airfare is going. If somebody came to me right now and offered me 2000 points for free with the caveat that I could never get rid of it and had to pay dues every year, I would have to think about it. Yeah, there is a rental market that could cover the dues right now, but there is always the chance of getting stuck with a $10K dues bill each year.
 

LuvtheGoof

Grill Master
Premium Member
That is because you are employed and have the funds tor the dues. Depending on the economic environment, that well can run dry.

Right now, I would buy a $1 contract as well, for maybe 200 points, but not much more. I don't need more points, and frankly I can't use more points. I can only get down to WDW so many times a year. A trip to WDW costs me money, even with DVC. Who knows where airfare is going. If somebody came to me right now and offered me 2000 points for free with the caveat that I could never get rid of it and had to pay dues every year, I would have to think about it. Yeah, there is a rental market that could cover the dues right now, but there is always the chance of getting stuck with a $10K dues bill each year.
Well, yes, we do have no problem with the additional dues money, even for 2000 points at SSR. Also true that you could get stuck, but I highly doubt that the rental market is going to totally tank in the future. You'd have to rent out 1100-1200 points to cover all the dues. Use the rest yourself to stay in Grand Villas on every trip - even if only the 2 of you.

Anyway, we don't need 2000 points either, and even though we have several hundred already, a few hundred more would never hurt, especially if we only had to pay $1/point!
 

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