What's Still On and What's Now Off

[Sirwalterraleigh]

May not be a formal government set parameter, just a general recommendation. And then it's up to Disney how to best implement those parameters. Why would Disney voluntarily enforce parameters? Because failing to do so would be negligent..... Because thousands of guests contracting Coronavirus would be a public relations nightmare and could lead to billions in negligence lawsuits.

Or considering how reliant Florida, and specifically the Orlando area, are on theme parks -- Wouldn't be surprised to see State and local government and the theme parks work together to establish parameters. Parameters that include maximum attendance, restaurant density, mask requirements, hand washing requirements, etc.

I fully expect there to be steps to reduce social density and reduce disease transmission. I don't know to what extent those steps will be government mandated and to what extent they will be "voluntary."

If one thing we learned recently is you can’t discount stupidity. Florida and Pennsylvania...two very large, important states, finally issued the order two hours ago...about 2 weeks behind the curve

 

[havoc315]

MK and DAK are the first to open and it’s not debatable. MK is a symbol that drives business...dak has unavoidable sunk cost

Epcot is the antithesis of those. Costs way more to run than the layman realizes and therefore is easiest to be shuttered.

Not to mention Epcot is currently the least popular park, with the fewest outdoor attractions. And it's an eyesore construction zone.

Epcot does not have a single "ride" that is primarily open air. Test Track is really the only attraction that is even partially outdoors.

 

[havoc315]

If one thing we learned recently is you can’t discount stupidity. Florida and Pennsylvania...to very large, important states, finally issued the order two hours ago...about 2 weeks behind the curve

Very true.
But private individuals cannot sue the government for that type of public policy stupidity.
On the other hand, a private individual can sue Disney, saying Disney was aware of the risk of coronavirus transmission and failed to provide a reasonable level of precautions. They can then get $5 million for the pain and suffering and damages for their family member who struggled on a ventilator for weeks before dying.

 

[CaptainNicko]

Rejuvenate and turn what’s left into the events pavilion. Build something south of it that looks like what was torn down and stick their much needed (apparently) bar in it. Make it two floors and stick the M&G downstairs. Voila. Same endgame, fraction of the price. And quick.

Could be the only good thing to come out of this sorry sorry mess. Edit - it’s wishful thinking on my part.

So..... something like this with an extra floor?

 

[willtravel]

There was a news article yesterday out of Washington State where a choir practiced for two hours, they made conscious points not to shake hands or have close personal interaction, yet 45 of the 60 members were later diagnosed with COVID-19. It's an insane story yet there wasn't a single surface touched by all the members. This alone makes it clear why it would be near-impossible for places like Disney to open in the near-term and no matter how much scrubbing of seats and surfaces they'd do, the primary route of infection is person-to-person, which is something Disney simply can't avoid.

Put in all the virtual queues you want, scrub every ride vehicle after each ride - people are still going to have to be near eachother in (reduced) lines or half-filled pre-shows. Because of this, those "mitigation effects," will wind up being like security at the front of the parks, 80% theater.

https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-03-29/coronavirus-choir-outbreak

I cannot open the article. Is there a reason why they even got together in the first place?

 

[MisterPenguin]

May not be a formal government set parameter, just a general recommendation.

My premise that "the parks will not open" was based on continued enforced parameters.

If there are continued enforced parameters with regard to size of gatherings or distance between individuals, it would be practically impossible for a Disney park to be open (profitably -- having a few thousand guests) and maintain those restrictions.

If there are no such restrictions... might as well go back to business as usual since spacing and wiping would only be for theater and not really halting further contagion. Too many surfaces to wipe. Too many times you'll be right next to someone.

 

[TrainsOfDisney]

To cut back on park capacity, would you imagine that they would consider eliminating annual passes?

Disney is going to need AP’s to survive. Big time.

I cannot open the article. Is there a reason why they even got together in the first place?

When they met, Disney Parks were still open and people were still leaving on cruise ships for a fun vacation.

 

[MisterPenguin]

Not to mention Epcot is currently the least popular park, with the fewest outdoor attractions.

Why are you making up stuff? Do you even bother to fact check these 'facts' you throw out?

Until Flight of Passage opened and DAK became a full day park and slightly pulled ahead of Epcot, Epcot was #2 of the four parks (also beating out DCA).

Now it's #3 of four. We'll see if GE changed that.

But to simply claim "least popular" is... just wrong factually.

Also, Epcot has more rides than either DHS or DAK, although, I haven't a clue what you mean by "outdoor attractions.'

 

[havoc315]

If there are no such restrictions... might as well go back to business as usual since spacing and wiping would only be for theater and not real halting of further contagion. Too many surfaces to wipe. Too many times you'll be right next to someone.

That's completely false. You are confusing "completely eliminate viral transmission" with "significantly reduce viral transmission"

In epidemiology terms, we are talking about the R0. With no interventions, the R0 is over 2.0 in an average environment. In Disney, it's much much higher. That creates a geometrically increasing viral spread, extremely dangerous.
Wiping down surfaces, wearing masks, taking temperature as people enter the parks, eliminating crowded queues, parades, fireworks... those all reduce the R.

Sure, they don't eliminate all possibility of viral spread. That's never going to happen, even after a vaccine.

But if masks reduce viral transmission by 20%... and fastidious wiping reduces it by 20%... and fireworks/parade crowds and crowded queues.. if that reduces it by 20%.... reducing attendance reduces the R by 20%.. You get to a point where the risk is reduced to a level where you can operate.

Now, whether it's profitable to operate the parks under those circumstances... that's a question I can't answer.
What I can answer with absolute certainty -- Wiping down and spacing, etc -- absolutely reduce the risk.

For a better understanding:

 

[havoc315]

Why are you making up stuff? Do you even bother to fact check these 'facts' you throw out?

Until Flight of Passage opened and DAK became a full day park and slightly pulled ahead of Epcot, Epcot was #2 of the four parks (also beating out DCA).

Now it's #3 of four. We'll see if GE changed that.

But to simply claim "least popular" is... just wrong factually.

Also, Epcot has more rides than either DHS or DAK, although, I haven't a clue what you mean by "outdoor attractions.'

Listen to yourself -- "UNTIL" FOP opened. We are talking about NOW. Not 3 years ago. Did you notice the crowds in the last 3 months? 2 hour lines for every attraction at DHS, while Epcot barely had lines. To the extent Epcot has crowds, they are often festival related.

CURRENTLY.. Epcot is the least popular park. This isn't a controversial statement. Anybody who has been to Disney in the last 3 months can vouch for that.

 

[MisterPenguin]

That's completely false. You are confusing "completely eliminate viral transmission" with "significantly reduce viral transmission"

In epidemiology terms, we are talking about the R0. With no interventions, the R0 is over 2.0 in an average environment. In Disney, it's much much higher. That creates a geometrically increasing viral spread, extremely dangerous.
Wiping down surfaces, wearing masks, taking temperature as people enter the parks, eliminating crowded queues, parades, fireworks... those all reduce the R.

Sure, they don't eliminate all possibility of viral spread. That's never going to happen, even after a vaccine.

But if masks reduce viral transmission by 20%... and fastidious wiping reduces it by 20%... and fireworks/parade crowds and crowded queues.. if that reduces it by 20%.... reducing attendance reduces the R by 20%.. You get to a point where the risk is reduced to a level where you can operate.

Now, whether it's profitable to operate the parks under those circumstances... that's a question I can't answer.
What I can answer with absolute certainty -- Wiping down and spacing, etc -- absolutely reduce the risk.

For a better understanding:

You're posting a video I've already posted to the forum.

I know about reducing vectors of transmission. I know for a new, highly transmissible infection, that half-hearted attempts have little impact until there's herd immunity. Which is one of the points made in that video.

 

[marni1971]

2 hour lines for every attraction at DHS..

A 2 hour line for MuppetVision 3D?

 

[havoc315]

You're posting a video I've already posted to the forum.

I know about reducing vectors of transmission. I know for a new, highly transmissible infection, that half-hearted attempts have little impact until there's herd immunity. Which is one of the points made in that video.

Actually, the video makes the point that every step helps... including significant hygiene improvements (reduce the infection rate). In fact, outside of case isolation, reduction of infection rate is most effectively.

 

[havoc315]

A 2 hour line for MuppetVision 3D?

Suppose I should have said every "ride" -- 2 hours+, for Smugglers Run, TSM, Slinky Dog, TOT, RnRC.. even saucers approaching that level.

 

[marni1971]

Suppose I should have said every "ride" -- 2 hours+, for Smugglers Run, TSM, Slinky Dog, TOT, RnRC.. even saucers approaching that level.

Sadly that shows a) how underdeveloped the park is b) the low capacity of most of the attractions and c) no correlation to how busy that - or any other park - was.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

That's completely false. You are confusing "completely eliminate viral transmission" with "significantly reduce viral transmission"

In epidemiology terms, we are talking about the R0. With no interventions, the R0 is over 2.0 in an average environment. In Disney, it's much much higher. That creates a geometrically increasing viral spread, extremely dangerous.
Wiping down surfaces, wearing masks, taking temperature as people enter the parks, eliminating crowded queues, parades, fireworks... those all reduce the R.

Sure, they don't eliminate all possibility of viral spread. That's never going to happen, even after a vaccine.

But if masks reduce viral transmission by 20%... and fastidious wiping reduces it by 20%... and fireworks/parade crowds and crowded queues.. if that reduces it by 20%.... reducing attendance reduces the R by 20%.. You get to a point where the risk is reduced to a level where you can operate.

Now, whether it's profitable to operate the parks under those circumstances... that's a question I can't answer.
What I can answer with absolute certainty -- Wiping down and spacing, etc -- absolutely reduce the risk.

For a better understanding:

If you think Disney will be “aggressive” to reopen and try to gamble on “percentages”...I think you got the wrong company.

This is a major issue for operations like Disney parks.

Suppose I should have said every "ride" -- 2 hours+, for Smugglers Run, TSM, Slinky Dog, TOT, RnRC.. even saucers approaching that level.

The problem is that’s the ENTIRE park. The potential to make money is MUCH greater in Epcot. Rides don’t make money...quite the opposite or we wouldn’t have fast pass.

The issue is the cost and whether a smaller cost at mgm makes it more advantageous?

I also disagree with the idea that EPCOT is the “least popular” by far. it’s more than gate clicks...which are FIRST gate clicks. Studios has funneled people late in the day to Epcot since the day it opened. That won’t ever go away.

 

[MisterPenguin]

Actually, the video makes the point that every step helps... including significant hygiene improvements (reduce the infection rate). In fact, outside of case isolation, reduction of infection rate is most effectively.

Yes, every little bit helps to flatten out the curve.

But, after you've peaked, the virus will still run its course until herd immunity or removal of identified cases.

If everyone everywhere is going back to work and school and filling up planes, running parks at 50% attendance or other out-of-normal schemes isn't going to make a significant difference. Sure, you do the normal things like continuing to sneeze in your arm and hand-washing. But a self-imposed distancing is a horse out of the barn scenario. And wiping things down is just for show given just how much has to be wiped down and won't.

 

[Touchdown]

I don’t see WDW opening until we don’t need to do social distancing, there is just no way it could work.

If you carry that forward, by the time WDW opens they should be able to do the fireworks.

I don’t see them not doing fireworks/parades for the rest of the year because if they do that, that means no holiday parties which would be a gigantic financial loss for the company.

 

[Magicart87]

How much $$$ would Mickey Mouse Co. lose if they simply wait it out > keep it closed to the public to enact major change (new attractions, repairs, etc) through the entirety of summer > reopen it to grand fanfare in time for the 50th?

 

[Nunu]

Speaking of EPCOT, I'll admit that after reading posts about it possibly not opening with the rest of the parks, I started to believe it and freak out a little bit.

I for one, have always found EPCOT the most spacious and open of all four parks. Aside from festivals peak days/hours, I've always been able to stroll and explore comfortably. Keeping social distance while outdoors, is easier at EPCOT, than say, MK. Although, I admit that I love EPCOT for many reasons, not only for the rides.

No one can deny that festivals are money makers, but I wouldn't mind if those were to be suspended for a while. People who are looking for food and drinks, can still find plenty at WS, even without festivals.