Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Serpico Jones]

Hollywood content creation and distribution needs a radical overhaul. Hollywood content should be distributed primarily via the internet.

 

[BlindChow]

'Fantastic Four' Box Office Dive Is a Bad Omen for Marvel's Future

The 66% drop for Fantastic Four's second weekend at the box office is a bad sign for the future of the Marvel Cinematic Universe.

www.thewrap.com

It would have done better if not for Johnny Storm's terrible wig.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

Hollywood content creation and distribution needs a radical overhaul. Hollywood content should be distributed primarily via the internet.

I think there’s still a market for the big screen but I agree for the most part, Hollywood and the theaters are going to have to adjust to the changing market, I think the days of the 20 screen multiplex are over and we’ll likely see a return to 3-6 screen theaters, which is probably a good thing, I miss the grandeur and spectacle of the theaters from when I was a kid.

 

[JackCH]

I think there’s still a market for the big screen but I agree for the most part, Hollywood and the theaters are going to have to adjust to the changing market, I think the days of the 20 screen multiplex are over and we’ll likely see a return to 3-6 screen theaters, which is probably a good thing, I miss the grandeur and spectacle of the theaters from when I was a kid.

In my area I've noticed the huge theaters are often way below capacity, but there is a much smaller Cinemark with reclining chairs and good food that is almost always filled.

 

[Ghost93]

I think there’s still a market for the big screen but I agree for the most part, Hollywood and the theaters are going to have to adjust to the changing market, I think the days of the 20 screen multiplex are over and we’ll likely see a return to 3-6 screen theaters, which is probably a good thing, I miss the grandeur and spectacle of the theaters from when I was a kid.

The problem is, sending things straight to streaming or the internet isn't profitable enough.

Audiences have this weird thing going on where they don't want to pay to see something in a theater, and yet they also are unlikely to spend $20-30 to buy or rent it on streaming if they know it's eventually going to land on one of the major streaming services. They expect streaming content to have the budget and production values of a big budget movie without wanting to help finance said content with their dollars.

The biggest problem is Netflix and Disney Plus creating this unsustainable model where you get premium content for "free" (if you have a subscription).

 

[Tha Realest]

The problem is, sending things straight to streaming or the internet isn't profitable enough.

Audiences have this weird thing going on where they don't want to pay to see something in a theater, and yet they also are unlikely to spend $20-30 to buy or rent it on streaming if they know it's eventually going to land on one of the major streaming services. They expect streaming content to have the budget and production values of a big budget movie without wanting to help finance said content with their dollars.

The biggest problem is Netflix and Disney Plus creating this unsustainable model where you get premium content for "free" (if you have a subscription).

I mean, I took my son last week to finally see JWR. It was great! We loved the experience! But we dropped $21 on the experience. I can “buy” it today for $24 (Gruv+coupon).

We are solo once again Saturday. Looked to see times for FF and price ranges from $9-$20/ticket (latter for only IMAX showing at 10am). Passing on it - going to go on a bike riding adventure and may buy it when it drops to below $15 or just wait until it’s on D+ around Thanksgiving or so. And this is a film I’ve been wanting to experience in the theater.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

The problem is, sending things straight to streaming or the internet isn't profitable enough.

Audiences have this weird thing going on where they don't want to pay to see something in a theater, and yet they also are unlikely to spend $20-30 to buy or rent it on streaming if they know it's eventually going to land on one of the major streaming services. They expect streaming content to have the budget and production values of a big budget movie without wanting to help finance said content with their dollars.

The biggest problem is Netflix and Disney Plus creating this unsustainable model where you get premium content for "free" (if you have a subscription).

I’m talking more from a timeframe perspective, when a theater has 20 screens they tend to show movies for a couple months even if those theaters are empty, if they had 4 screens they’d likely only show a film for 2-3 weeks and then it would be gone. I think that would bring back the feeling of it being an event you can’t miss. I can recall standing in huge lines as a kid to see Star Wars, Jurassic Park, Titanic, etc… there was a real FOMO affect because seats were limited and you only had a few weeks before it was gone.

 

[FrontierSpirit]

So excited to watch Wednesday tonight with family. Hope it’s great.

 

[Disney Irish]

I think there’s still a market for the big screen but I agree for the most part, Hollywood and the theaters are going to have to adjust to the changing market, I think the days of the 20 screen multiplex are over and we’ll likely see a return to 3-6 screen theaters, which is probably a good thing, I miss the grandeur and spectacle of the theaters from when I was a kid.

I’m talking more from a timeframe perspective, when a theater has 20 screens they tend to show movies for a couple months even if those theaters are empty, if they had 4 screens they’d likely only show a film for 2-3 weeks and then it would be gone. I think that would bring back the feeling of it being an event you can’t miss. I can recall standing in huge lines as a kid to see Star Wars, Jurassic Park, Titanic, etc… there was a real FOMO affect because seats were limited and you only had a few weeks before it was gone.

The biggest issue with going back to limited screens is that back when they existed you had a long theatrical run, averaging 6 or more months. This was touched upon in the video up thread.

With the number of movies released in a year you likely couldn't do that. And it wouldn't be "profitable" to just have a couple movies releasing at a time for a couple weeks only. I understand the idea of trying to create "FOMO" but if that doesn't exist with the short theatrical windows we have now, not sure why you think it would be any different with a smaller number of screens and an even shorter theatrical window. People will still just wait it out and watch it at home, but in that scenario its an even smaller time to wait, couple weeks rather than a couple months as they do now. So yeah that doesn't create "FOMO", its the exact opposite its creates "NoFOMO" which is exactly what is happening right now.

 

[Disney Irish]

The problem is, sending things straight to streaming or the internet isn't profitable enough.

Audiences have this weird thing going on where they don't want to pay to see something in a theater, and yet they also are unlikely to spend $20-30 to buy or rent it on streaming if they know it's eventually going to land on one of the major streaming services. They expect streaming content to have the budget and production values of a big budget movie without wanting to help finance said content with their dollars.

The biggest problem is Netflix and Disney Plus creating this unsustainable model where you get premium content for "free" (if you have a subscription).

Its not "profitable" enough, yet....

If the theatrical model goes away you can bet that Hollywood will find a way to charge and recoup any cost mo matter how they are distributing the movies. Whether that means a more pure PVOD model, or changing more for subscriptions. For example I'd expect Disney is bring back the Premier Access feature on D+ if that day comes and change for first run movies.

We've already seen the "free" streaming services starting to be phased out by their owners in favor of the subscription model. So the "free lunch" era of streaming is ending.

 

[FrontierSpirit]

The marvel movies as loss leaders has stuck with me so I asked Grok:

“Likelihood of cinema becoming more of a loss leader for streaming (i.e., theatrical releases increasingly tolerated as unprofitable or low-margin to drive subscriber growth, content libraries, and engagement on platforms like Disney+, Netflix, etc.): 75%.
This higher probability aligns with the ongoing pivot where studios use theatrical as a “loss-mitigator” or feeder for streaming, evidenced by day-and-date releases eroding box office exclusivity and films outperforming on platforms after theater runs.”

So if that is true, you guys are more attuned to the box office to know, how will that change the cinema in the next 10 years?

 

[Disney Irish]

The marvel movies as loss leaders has stuck with me so I asked Grok:

“Likelihood of cinema becoming more of a loss leader for streaming (i.e., theatrical releases increasingly tolerated as unprofitable or low-margin to drive subscriber growth, content libraries, and engagement on platforms like Disney+, Netflix, etc.): 75%.
This higher probability aligns with the ongoing pivot where studios use theatrical as a “loss-mitigator” or feeder for streaming, evidenced by day-and-date releases eroding box office exclusivity and films outperforming on platforms after theater runs.”

So if that is true, you guys are more attuned to the box office to know, how will that change the cinema in the next 10 years?

In 10 years? I would say more than likely we see a few theater chains go under. In 15-20 years the theatrical model goes away completely. And this just isn't my opinion, theater owners themselves have a similar opinion, Variety did an article just in June saying similar -

Most U.S. Exhibition Execs Think ‘Traditional’ Moviegoing Has Less Than 20 Years as ‘Viable Business Model,’ According to New Survey

More than 50% of U.S. movie theater exhibition executives say they believe "traditional moviegoing" has less than 20 years as a viable business model.

variety.com

 

[Wendy Pleakley]

The marvel movies as loss leaders has stuck with me so I asked Grok:

“Likelihood of cinema becoming more of a loss leader for streaming (i.e., theatrical releases increasingly tolerated as unprofitable or low-margin to drive subscriber growth, content libraries, and engagement on platforms like Disney+, Netflix, etc.): 75%.
This higher probability aligns with the ongoing pivot where studios use theatrical as a “loss-mitigator” or feeder for streaming, evidenced by day-and-date releases eroding box office exclusivity and films outperforming on platforms after theater runs.”

So if that is true, you guys are more attuned to the box office to know, how will that change the cinema in the next 10 years?

I don't know if loss leader would be seen as an acceptable approach. Streaming revenue certainly mitigates the risk of theatrical releases, but if they consistently lose money it's probably not sustainable. At that point Disney could go full Netflix and skip the theater completely.

I don't think this is super likely. Theatrical still makes money. Even if many movies need streaming to become profitable, it's still a net positive and there will always be big hits. Endgame doesn't happen, or isn't as big, without so-so performing movies like Ant-Man.

Theatrical releases still benefit home viewing because those movies have better production values and awareness. I'm more likely to buy or stream Thunderbolts at home because it's a theatrical product.

 

[FrontierSpirit]

I don't know if loss leader would be seen as an acceptable approach. Streaming revenue certainly mitigates the risk of theatrical releases, but if they consistently lose money it's probably not sustainable. At that point Disney could go full Netflix and skip the theater completely.

I don't think this is super likely. Theatrical still makes money. Even if many movies need streaming to become profitable, it's still a net positive and there will always be big hits. Endgame doesn't happen, or isn't as big, without so-so performing movies like Ant-Man.

Theatrical releases still benefit home viewing because those movies have better production values and awareness. I'm more likely to buy or stream Thunderbolts at home because it's a theatrical product.

where do you stand on the Varity article?
“When asked “How long do you expect the traditional cinema experience to remain a viable business model?”, roughly 55% of exhibition executives stated that they believed it had less than 20 years”

Are we looking at the next Blockbuster and Sound Warehouse, a business model that decelerates overnight?

 

[Disney Irish]

I don't know if loss leader would be seen as an acceptable approach. Streaming revenue certainly mitigates the risk of theatrical releases, but if they consistently lose money it's probably not sustainable. At that point Disney could go full Netflix and skip the theater completely.

I don't think this is super likely. Theatrical still makes money. Even if many movies need streaming to become profitable, it's still a net positive and there will always be big hits. Endgame doesn't happen, or isn't as big, without so-so performing movies like Ant-Man.

Theatrical releases still benefit home viewing because those movies have better production values and awareness. I'm more likely to buy or stream Thunderbolts at home because it's a theatrical product.

Except that is really what we're heading toward, and studios have positioned themselves up for the eventuality of it happening. Heck it wasn't even 5 years ago where we were talking in these forums about that actual possibility happening in the here and now. 5 years prior to that no one thought it was even a possibility. So times have changed.

I think the main reason why so many have been resistant to the idea of a "no theatrical" model is because we as consumers have been trained that the theatrical model was the only way and that anything lesser was bad for Hollywood. Except that there have been other models used in Hollywood for a long time outside of the theatrical model. The direct-to-video model for example has been around for like 40+ years at this point, and many studios used that to make profit for their movies.

So this idea that its theatrical or nothing is what is not viable. Hollywood will always find ways to make movies and make money, even if theatrical is no longer an option.

 

[coffeefan]

There's a lot to draw from these results.

 

[Wendy Pleakley]

Except that is really what we're heading toward, and studios have positioned themselves up for the eventuality of it happening. Heck it wasn't even 5 years ago where we were talking in these forums about that actual possibility happening in the here and now. 5 years prior to that no one thought it was even a possibility. So times have changed.

I think the main reason why so many have been resistant to the idea of a "no theatrical" model is because we as consumers have been trained that the theatrical model was the only way and that anything lesser was bad for Hollywood. Except that there have been other models used in Hollywood for a long time outside of the theatrical model. The direct-to-video model for example has been around for like 40+ years at this point, and many studios used that to make profit for their movies.

So this idea that its theatrical or nothing is what is not viable. Hollywood will always find ways to make movies and make money, even if theatrical is no longer an option.

We'll see what happens.

Without theatrical you don't get the big hits like Endgame.

Netflix is certainly successful but they're more quantity over quality.

Direct to video is a common model but the product is absolutely inferior. Are movie studios going to abandon the Star Wars and Marvel movies of the world? We're not going to get those movies in a world of Netflix budgets.

Maybe we'll see movie studios move into the theater business. No splitting of box office receipts. Suddenly snacks contribute to a movie's bottom line.

 

[Nevermore525]

Hamilton getting a Theatrical release on September 5 from Disney for the 10th Anniversary of the show

 

[DKampy]

I have a tough time seeing Theaters going the way of the dodo…. Studios need theatrical to prop up their streaming services…the data is in…. Movies have a bigger pop on VOD if they hit cinemas first…. It is why you saw a bunch of movies of higher quality switch from streaming to theatrical…. While a lot of movies that are created for streaming have that straight to DVD quality… some fiilms are clearly even using theaters as an advertising method… such as Companions which was critically praised and built a ton of buzz… only to be released to VOD a couple of weeks later

 

[Disney Irish]

We'll see what happens.

Yes, obviously we're all at the mercy of the industry and what they decide. We have little say on it beyond our own spending habits.

Without theatrical you don't get the big hits like Endgame.

I disagree, I think the hits will still come it just won't be measured in box office take, it'll be measured in viewership, something that is already being done.

Netflix is certainly successful but they're more quantity over quality.

"Quality" is subjective. But they have had hit quality product over the years, including Stranger Things, Wednesday, Squid Games, and the like. Even the recent KPop Demon Hunters appears to gain a following.

Direct to video is a common model but the product is absolutely inferior. Are movie studios going to abandon the Star Wars and Marvel movies of the world? We're not going to get those movies in a world of Netflix budgets.

Who said it had to be inferior? This is the sentiment that came about because consumers thought only quality products went to theaters and inferior stuff that couldn't make it theaters went direct-to-video. That doesn't have to be the case. Netflix and Disney for that matter, has shown that quality product can be streaming exclusives. So the model is there and viable.

Netflix spends hundred of Millions on their Netflix exclusive movies. So why do you think other studios can't do that same in a similar model? Especially since Disney already has proven they can as well with their streaming exclusives. If theatrical isn't a viable long term distribution model anymore then the same movies will just be pushed to streamers. The economics can be worked out where since a studio is getting more, or in the case of a Netflix, Disney, or Amazon all of it, of the revenue they don't have to worry about having to double to triple the box office in order to just break even. They just have to have enough revenue coming into the streamer to cover content costs, and both Disney and Netflix are profitable in that regard.

Maybe we'll see movie studios move into the theater business. No splitting of box office receipts. Suddenly snacks contribute to a movie's bottom line.

That might be an option, and might be something that has to happen in the short to medium term especially if chains like AMC, Cinemark, and Regal start to go under. But I suspect long term even that will end up being just a stop gap measure, not one that "saves theatrical".