Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Wendy Pleakley]

No one said flops were "acceptable", just that there is a certain amount of risk in releasing a movie to market and that they still find ways to make money from it even if it does flop during theatrical, maybe not profit but to try and find money to recoup their costs. And that is the post-theatrical market, which includes many revenue streams and yes includes streaming.

I assume it's also like any industry where there's an expectation that some products will lose money, and the ultimate goal is overall profitability.

A retail store might know that some products will simply not sell. It's impossible to predict. Some products will end up being sold at a discount, even a loss. They would build in enough profit margin overall to cover those.

There is no reality in which a movie studio only releases profitable hits.

 

[Disney Irish]

I assume it's also like any industry where there's an expectation that some products will lose money, and the ultimate goal is overall profitability.

A retail store might know that some products will simply not sell. It's impossible to predict. Some products will end up being sold at a discount, even a loss. They would build in enough profit margin overall to cover those.

There is no reality in which a movie studio only releases profitable hits.

Yep exactly. Many many industries do this, heck the grocery industry coined a term for it, loss leader. And you can bet your last dollar that movies studios do actually release movies that they know will fail at the box office in order to make money in the post-theatrical market and bring awareness to their IP. Independent movie studios are widely known to do this. This is actually what I think Disney/Pixar did with Elio knowing that it might fail especially given the state of Pixar in the audience minds.

 

[BrianLo]

Being as you seem to have looked at the reports most closely, I wondered if you could answer a question for me. Does Disney+ pay markedly different prices for the movies they stream? For instance, do they have to pay (themselves) a lot more for box office successes like Endgame vs. poor performers like Cap 4?

Yup! We’ll never be privy to the formula, but it is very much performance based and seems to be informed both pre-emptively by how it already did in the box office but also how well it is doing on streaming and how old of a product it is. Probably partially modeled off how it was with Netflix.

This is particularly important for residuals and participation. Disney would actually be otherwise motivated not to pay anything at all (both to make their streaming service seem more profitable and to not pay anyone externally).

 

[DisneyWarrior27]

More predictions sure to go “untrue”?

More like will be true

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

More like will be true

I don’t think I’ve seen you be close yet? But to be fair…no way I’m watching whatever lame pod or vlog you have to be sure

 

[Wendy Pleakley]

Yup! We’ll never be privy to the formula, but it is very much performance based and seems to be informed both pre-emptively by how it already did in the box office but also how well it is doing on streaming and how old of a product it is. Probably partially modeled off how it was with Netflix.

This is particularly important for residuals and participation. Disney would actually be otherwise motivated not to pay anything at all (both to make their streaming service seem more profitable and to not pay anyone externally).

It'd be interesting to see all the nuts and bolts behind these decisions.

Let's day RDJ is entitled to a percentage of the next Avengers movie gross. Is Disney obligated to shop that movie around in a bidding war scenario? They have to pay market value to themselves, but does the lack of a competitive process potentially lead to some issues regardless?

Do they sell it based on past performance - you want to stream an Avengers movie, you have to pay upfront based on how well Endgame did.

On a semi-related note there's a reason actors tend to get a percentage of the gross nowadays, versus profit sharing. Avoids the issues where studio accounting claims a huge hit actually lost money. Forrest Gump famously had this issue.

 

[brideck]

That means they’re financing flops with a broadcast platform…

They're not merely financing flops. They're helping to finance their entire slate of movies with monies derived from streaming, so that, you know... they have more they can put on to those platforms in the future. Some parts of that slate end up being winning lotto tickets that also help the company's bottom line from their box office proceeds, etc.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

They're not merely financing flops. They're helping to finance their entire slate of movies with monies derived from streaming, so that, you know... they have more they can put on to those platforms in the future. Some parts of that slate end up being winning lotto tickets that also help the company's bottom line from their box office proceeds, etc.

And I don’t disagree with that at all. The math is far from certain…but the premise is correct.

But that’s not why I even bother commenting. My beef is and always has been that failures at the box office still are failures. They fail to meet the objectives of a single frame of film ever shot. The whole point is to find/strengthen an audience. Trying to twist/splain away failures is just a pointless endeavor and moving the goalposts

And if the theaters go and it’s all at home (which would really suck on so many levels) the goal will still be the same.

 

[easyrowrdw]

Yep exactly. Many many industries do this, heck the grocery industry coined a term for it, loss leader. And you can bet your last dollar that movies studios do actually release movies that they know will fail at the box office in order to make money in the post-theatrical market and bring awareness to their IP. Independent movie studios are widely known to do this. This is actually what I think Disney/Pixar did with Elio knowing that it might fail especially given the state of Pixar in the audience minds.

Of course the downside is that you potentially (further) dilute the value of your brand. You can sell it to streaming to make up for losses, but there can still be a long-term reputation cost. Then again, given how much is known about movies pre-release, if you just bury a movie that could be the same thing or worse. It's an interesting situation.

 

[easyrowrdw]

Yup! We’ll never be privy to the formula, but it is very much performance based and seems to be informed both pre-emptively by how it already did in the box office but also how well it is doing on streaming and how old of a product it is. Probably partially modeled off how it was with Netflix.

This is particularly important for residuals and participation. Disney would actually be otherwise motivated not to pay anything at all (both to make their streaming service seem more profitable and to not pay anyone externally).

Thank you!

 

[Disney Irish]

Of course the downside is that you potentially (further) dilute the value of your brand. You can sell it to streaming to make up for losses, but there can still be a long-term reputation cost. Then again, given how much is known about movies pre-release, if you just bury a movie that could be the same thing or worse. It's an interesting situation.

Sure that can happen, but that is the risk of the movie business, nothing is guaranteed. Why do you think that studios tend to flood the market with the "what's hot" trend, and usually to the determent of cannibalizing each other.

 

[AdventureHasAName]

I'm trying to figure out where you got this "new" metric for break even you are using from.

I thought it was common knowledge. It was common knowledge in and around Hollywood going as far back as the Star Wars Prequel Trilogy. It was one of those films where Lucas insisted on (and received) a 100% cut on the opening weekend. That's at least 20 years. And more specifically, the rule of thumb was: On true summer tentpole films, the number would be more like 1.5 instead of 2.5 because of the increased opening weekend percentage going to the studio.

 

[Disney Irish]

I thought it was common knowledge. It was common knowledge in and around Hollywood going as far back as the Star Wars Prequel Trilogy. It was one of those films where Lucas insisted on (and received) a 100% cut on the opening weekend. That's at least 20 years. And more specifically, the rule of thumb was: On true summer tentpole films, the number would be more like 1.5 instead of 2.5 because of the increased opening weekend percentage going to the studio.

Obviously not common knowledge if the people that track the box office here don't know about it, especially since you now say its an old metric going back 2 decades. Doing searches for it also doesn't produce any results, so it can't be that common.

I'm happy to learn about it if it really is common knowledge. So that is why I keep asking where you got it from. Do you have some site that I can view that shows this breakdown? I mean if its common knowledge there has to be some industry coverage of it, like an article from THR, Variety, Deadline, I'd even settle for Vulture or someone right now if you got it.

 

[TP2000]

Revised and Final Box Office is out for this past weekend!

For those following that classic tale of American immigration, Superman, its final domestic number edged just over $125 Million. It's overseas number though, where it opened everywhere this past weekend, is notably weak and less than its domestic haul at $93 Million.

Elio and Lilo & Stitch are following their vastly different pathways. What will the team at Ridgeback Ranch get handed next from Burbank after their hugely successful work on Lilo & Stitch?

And perhaps a better question; what prevents the employees on the Burbank studio lot from creating a wildly successful family movie with a production budget of $100 Million?

The Numbers - Weekend Box Office Chart for September 5, 2025

Weekend Domestic Box Office Chart for the weekend of September 5, 2025

thenumbers.com

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Revised and Final Box Office is out for this past weekend!

For those following that classic tale of American immigration, Superman, its final domestic number edged just over $125 Million. It's overseas number though, where it opened everywhere this past weekend, is notably weak and less than its domestic haul at $93 Million.

Elio and Lilo & Stitch are following their vastly different pathways. What will the team at Ridgeback Ranch get handed next from Burbank after their hugely successful work on Lilo & Stitch?

And perhaps a better question; what prevents the employees on the Burbank studio lot from creating a wildly successful family movie with a production budget of $100 Million?

View attachment 870952

The Numbers - Weekend Box Office Chart for September 5, 2025

Weekend Domestic Box Office Chart for the weekend of September 5, 2025

thenumbers.com

I think any other $100 animated or live action remake movie will bomb…hard (if the myth that movies still can bomb are…indeed…true?)

What stitch had going for it was a 25 year build up of product saturation recognition that covers about anyone up to their 30s at a minimum. Which is why it was a sure fire slam dunk.

It wasn’t the quality - which is fine but not superior - it was the character pull. So when it crosses a billion…we know why. Autopsy not necessary.

We have seen this cycle now play. The “middle” MCU was on street cred built up. Three awful, embarrassing Star Wars movies made $4.5 billion at the box office based on the mystique…which they wasted because it will never happen again for crap.

These things don’t seem hard to track…with any bit of thought

 

[BrianLo]

What will the team at Ridgeback Ranch get handed next from Burbank after their hugely successful work on Lilo & Stitch?

D

Thread 'Live-Action Lilo & Stitch 2'

Jun 26, 2025

Walt Disney Studios has announced Lilo & Stitch 2 is now officially in development:

'Lilo & Stitch 2’ Now in Development | The Walt Disney Company

Walt Disney Studios announced that 'Lilo & Stitch 2' is now officially in development. Since its debut, 'Lilo & Stitch' has grossed roughly $923 million worldwide.

thewaltdisneycompany.com

• DCBaker
• Replies: 11
• Forum: Disney Movies, Animation, TV and Disney+

• 
• 

And Stitch 3-9.

 

[Disney Irish]

And I don’t disagree with that at all. The math is far from certain…but the premise is correct.

But that’s not why I even bother commenting. My beef is and always has been that failures at the box office still are failures. They fail to meet the objectives of a single frame of film ever shot. The whole point is to find/strengthen an audience. Trying to twist/splain away failures is just a pointless endeavor and moving the goalposts

And if the theaters go and it’s all at home (which would really suck on so many levels) the goal will still be the same.

The part that I think you still fail to acknowledge is that money is money. It doesn't matter if its at the box office or at home, the transaction is still the same. Its still a consumer paying for a product, the delivery mechanism used doesn't matter. One just requires you to go to a theater, the other doesn't, but the end result is the same, ie that the studio gets paid for the product they produce and delivers to the consumer. So yes the goal is still the same, to make more money than they spend for said product. But the transaction and where it occurs is irrelevant, only that it happens. So in the end who really cares that that transaction can and will be done at home, only that it occurs.

I think the issue why you can't accept it really comes down to tangibility. Because the box office numbers are more tangible it feels more real and you can call balls and strikes, or in this case successes and failures. Compared to at-home where its less tangible because its hidden behind a paywall, so you can't gripe about the latest potential flop.

This is honestly the same debate that was had almost 2 decades ago in my industry when software started to be digitally sold and purchased. It didn't feel tangible to people because you couldn't see the sales being made because there was no physical transaction, it was all digital. In the end everyone just accepted it and almost no software is sold with physical copies now, and very few care as the sales are still the sales and still count at the end of the day.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

D

Thread 'Live-Action Lilo & Stitch 2'

Jun 26, 2025

Walt Disney Studios has announced Lilo & Stitch 2 is now officially in development:

'Lilo & Stitch 2’ Now in Development | The Walt Disney Company

Walt Disney Studios announced that 'Lilo & Stitch 2' is now officially in development. Since its debut, 'Lilo & Stitch' has grossed roughly $923 million worldwide.

thewaltdisneycompany.com

• DCBaker
• Replies: 11
• Forum: Disney Movies, Animation, TV and Disney+

• 
• 

And Stitch 3-9.

Well that was inevitable of course…we probably have a release date for stitch 4 set too

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

Been watching Swoozie for years, he typically just makes funny shorts, and his new video absolutely nails Hollywood and why it’s struggling.

Hopefully someone forwards this to the studio executives who have their next decade of movies announced with no scripts written yet, maybe once they realize the issue they can correct course and start putting the script first rather than the schedule first.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Been watching Swoozie for years, he typically just makes funny shorts, and his new video absolutely nails Hollywood and why it’s struggling.

Hopefully someone forwards this to the studio executives who have their next decade of movies announced with no scripts written yet, maybe once they realize the issue they can correct course and start putting the script first rather than the schedule first.

Very insightful

And very much points to a certain corp and blocks of ip I can think of…specifically announcing directors with no scripts

I wonder what the Bomb/franchise reboot he was was talking about with that producer was?

(If bombs exist)