Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[easyrowrdw]

Netflix is definitely quantity over quality. If one doesn't like something there's always 50 other things in their queue.

It's still cheap enough that watching one or two shows/movies a week is decent value. Compared to renting a digital movie at least.

Disney+ may do well with a focus on quality. Andor has been well received and a bit of a water cooler show. Those are becoming few and far between on Netflix. The last was Squid Game maybe?

Anecdotally, almost every recommendation I get from people is for something on Netflix, Max, or Apple. I can’t remember the last time I was recommended something on Disney+.

For us, the value of Disney+ is in the back catalogue and cartoons. We almost cancelled after the last price increase but decided it was still the best kid-friendly option we had.

 

[Disney Irish]

Tough call…If I had to bet on it…I’d think it will do a billion…
But I don’t really know why?

Maybe because the first one did $1.025B? And this second one is releasing in China too where it should be big.

And I’m not from “Jersey”…by the way

My apologies, I thought I remembered you once saying you were from NJ, hopefully I at least got the region right.

Edit - you have posted that you are from NJ in multiple posts on this site. So I stand by what I said, with the "Jersey" comment. Maybe you take "Jersey" to mean Jersey City rather that the whole state, but I meant the state not a specific town/city within it.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Maybe because the first one did $1.025B? And this second one is releasing in China too where it should be big.

Well those expectations are no longer valid, right?

My apologies, I thought I remembered you once saying you were from NJ, hopefully I at least got the region right.

Edit - you have posted that you are from NJ in multiple posts on this site. So I stand by what I said, with the "Jersey" comment. Maybe you take "Jersey" to mean Jersey City rather that the whole state, but I meant the state not a specific town/city within it.

I live in New Jersey…but I’m a rust belter…which is way not the same

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

https://www.wsj.com/business/media/disney-lilo-stitch-box-office-85df78bd

 

[Disney Irish]

Well those expectations are no longer valid, right?

Expectations? Yeah I would say that its off in this new box office paradigm. But I don't think its too much to think it has potential in the Middle Kingdom given that the IP is huge there.

I live in New Jersey…but I’m a rust belter…which is way not the same

Well the Jersey 'tude comes thru sometimes.

 

[Serpico Jones]

If Disney wanted to flood their services with an endless amount of crap, they could do so quite easily.

They have a better strategy than Netflix. It needs time to show up in the financials, but it’s already showing up in customer satisfaction.

Disney cannot “flood their service with an endless amount of crap”. They don’t have the economic firepower to compete with Netflix in streaming. It costs a fortune to achieve the kind of scale that Netflix has.

 

[Disney Irish]

Disney cannot “flood their service with an endless amount of crap”. They don’t have the economic firepower to compete with Netflix in streaming. It costs a fortune to achieve the kind of scale that Netflix has.

Why do you believe that only Netflix can spend on content but Disney can’t? That honestly doesn’t make sense. Both can and do spend Billions on content, in fact I believe Disney is actually spending more than Netflix is 2025, $23B for Disney compared to Netflix at $18B.

So this idea that Disney can’t spend as much on content as Netflix is false.

 

[Stripes]

Disney cannot “flood their service with an endless amount of crap”. They don’t have the economic firepower to compete with Netflix in streaming. It costs a fortune to achieve the kind of scale that Netflix has.

What? As @Disney Irish pointed out, Disney’s content spending is $5 billion higher than Netflix. In 2024, Disney distributed the most watched content in the U.S., far outpacing Netflix’s total viewership.

The Gauge

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www.nielsen.com

 

[erasure fan1]

Anecdotally, almost every recommendation I get from people is for something on Netflix, Max, or Apple. I can’t remember the last time I was recommended something on Disney+.

For us, the value of Disney+ is in the back catalogue and cartoons. We almost cancelled after the last price increase but decided it was still the best kid-friendly option we had.

I'm right there with you, except we did cancel D+. We have most of the content we want on Blu-ray or DVD so we don't need to keep it. So now we're just churning until a few things come that we want to see.

 

[Serpico Jones]

Why do you believe that only Netflix can spend on content but Disney can’t? That honestly doesn’t make sense. Both can and do spend Billions on content, in fact I believe Disney is actually spending more than Netflix is 2025, $23B for Disney compared to Netflix at $18B.

So this idea that Disney can’t spend as much on content as Netflix is false.

How much of that content went straight to Disney+?

 

[DKampy]

How much of that content went straight to Disney+?

How much is Netflix sending to theaters…. Many studios findings have been that movies do better on streaming if in theaters first..,. Going theatrically does not change things as it will only further deepen their library

Even if nothing new interest me on Disney +(I still watch plenty)… as a cord cutter it would still be worth it for the Disney bundle… as I would want Hulu… which is included under the Disney umbrella…. Not to mention the deep Disney library

 

[Willmark]

On a slightly different take?

Doesn’t matter if Netflix or Disney comes out on top. The old model is what they are fighting for.

I work in IT. The recent advances in say Adobe Firefly has rapidly advanced to the point where it’s not too far off from complete generation of commercials. Right now it’s for static imagery, iterations a whole host of stuff but ultimately video is a long term goal.

How long or so really is it? It’s not that far away. This isn’t decades away it’s much closer than anyone realizes.

Hollywood however does realize how close it is. Their whole business model is facing risks. Note I didn’t say they are going out of business tomorrow.

As of yet it can’t make a full length film or even commercial efficiently but is getting very close now.

Soon there will be no need in the traditional sense for: illustrators, photographers, video folks and even actors.

I’ve been pushing AI (mainly ChatGPT) heavily for three months. Before I dabbled with it. The amount of what it can do? I’ve already develop tags, screenplays, outlines of 10, 30 60 second teasers, storyboards etc. it’s accreting a pace I don’t anyone thought possible.

I own the IP I’m working on. No need for Hollywood in any traditional sense. The internet are the pipes and cuts out the distribution deals of needing a Netflix or Disney+

People can argue how close this is all they want. They can argue the ethics you name it. It’s coming whether people know it or not.

Very soon you can be your own eterntaiment, a version of you or something else entirely and get it out to the world. Payment yet to be determined but the idea is there.

And you can sure be there are lots of other people who see this. As I recall AI was part of the strikes last year.

If I want to get a film out the question is now what is Hollywood needed for? holly wood is likely very aware of how much this threatens them.

There is obviously a lot more to go but with the higher end smart phones or even mid range? More than enough to shoot video. Video editing? AI can do that too or stuff like Adobe Preimire or Final Cut are not that expensive.

A curse says “may you live interesting times.”

We are in that right now.

 

[Disney Irish]

How much of that content went straight to Disney+?

All content that Disney spends money on eventually goes to D+/Hulu, whether its a movie that was a theatrical release or for a show the originally aired on ABC or D+/Hulu exclusive. All of it ends up on D+/Hulu.

Just like Netflix isn't spending their $18B just on content they make themselves that are Netflix exclusives, they are purchasing content from other studios for the post-theatrical market, and even old shows and such from broadcast tv, or the foreign language show that becomes a hit.

So you're focused on the wrong thing. Disney can and does actually outspend Netflix year over year because it has more distribution channels, but it all funnels into D+/Hulu.

 

[Minnesota disney fan]

Adolescence is the best show released this year and will sweep the Emmys. It’s a Netflix show.

It also did huge numbers from a viewership standpoint.

I must be an outlier here, but I love Netflix. We have Amazon Prime too, but I always seem to go back to Netflex for the variety and quality of shows. I like that they have the older shows instead of all new properties. If I had to get rid of one of the streaming services, it would definitely Not be Netflix.

 

[Stripes]

Soon there will be no need in the traditional sense for: illustrators, photographers, video folks and even actors.

We are officially at the peak of inflated expectations.

 

[Disney Irish]

On a slightly different take?

Doesn’t matter if Netflix or Disney comes out on top. The old model is what they are fighting for.

I work in IT. The recent advances in say Adobe Firefly has rapidly advanced to the point where it’s not too far off from complete generation of commercials. Right now it’s for static imagery, iterations a whole host of stuff but ultimately video is a long term goal.

How long or so really is it? It’s not that far away. This isn’t decades away it’s much closer than anyone realizes.

Hollywood however does realize how close it is. Their whole business model is facing risks. Note I didn’t say they are going out of business tomorrow.

As of yet it can’t make a full length film or even commercial efficiently but is getting very close now.

Soon there will be no need in the traditional sense for: illustrators, photographers, video folks and even actors.

I’ve been pushing AI (mainly ChatGPT) heavily for three months. Before I dabbled with it. The amount of what it can do? I’ve already develop tags, screenplays, outlines of 10, 30 60 second teasers, storyboards etc. it’s accreting a pace I don’t anyone thought possible.

I own the IP I’m working on. No need for Hollywood in any traditional sense. The internet are the pipes and cuts out the distribution deals of needing a Netflix or Disney+

People can argue how close this is all they want. They can argue the ethics you name it. It’s coming whether people know it or not.

Very soon you can be your own eterntaiment, a version of you or something else entirely and get it out to the world. Payment yet to be determined but the idea is there.

And you can sure be there are lots of other people who see this. As I recall AI was part of the strikes last year.

If I want to get a film out the question is now what is Hollywood needed for? holly wood is likely very aware of how much this threatens them.

There is obviously a lot more to go but with the higher end smart phones or even mid range? More than enough to shoot video. Video editing? AI can do that too or stuff like Adobe Preimire or Final Cut are not that expensive.

A curse says “may you live interesting times.”

We are in that right now.

That assumes that consumers want to become their own little film studios creating their own content for their own consumption, that in my opinion can't be assumed. By and large consumers want to consume, not create.

Now will we get to a point sometime in the future where we have a "Ready Player One" type of situation where everyone is in a virtual world making their own stuff, I dunno. But for at least the foreseeable future I don't see that happening, even with the advances in AI that are coming quick.

On an AI story for a second just to show its got a long way to go. I was just in a meeting today where a development team I work with was showing off the latest AI advancements they were working on. They asked AI to summarize a document, something it should easily do and has done for many generations, and the AI just spit out a dictionary full of random words, never summarizing the actual document even after rebuilding the language models. Its still very imperfect, it has a long way to go before its able to fully replace humans in many ways.

So I have no doubt that companies like Adobe are continuing to advance AI, and they will get to the point where it can create photos and even full length movies that are indistinguishable from something human created. But I come back to the question, will a majority of people want to do that for themselves, and I say for now probably not.

 

[Disney Irish]

We are officially at the peak of inflated expectations.



View attachment 860143

I'm reminded of every doom and gloom prediction that has made its way through the entertainment space over the last 100 years and how it was going to take everything down, and yet its still here.

The landscape changes and the entertainment space adapts. Whether that is technology changes or even consumer changes, they adapt, and this with AI will be no different. Its a tool just like any other that has been developed over the last 100 years.

 

[Disney Analyst]

Are we ready for the King of rock and roll to return this weekend, and dominate the box office?

Stitch of course.

 

[Willmark]

That assumes that consumers want to become their own little film studios creating their own content for their own consumption, that in my opinion can't be assumed. By and large consumers want to consume, not create.

Now will we get to a point sometime in the future where we have a "Ready Player One" type of situation where everyone is in a virtual world making their own stuff, I dunno. But for at least the foreseeable future I don't see that happening, even with the advances in AI that are coming quick.

On an AI story for a second just to show its got a long way to go. I was just in a meeting today where a development team I work with was showing off the latest AI advancements they were working on. They asked AI to summarize a document, something it should easily do and has done for many generations, and the AI just spit out a dictionary full of random words, never summarizing the actual document even after rebuilding the language models. Its still very imperfect, it has a long way to go before its able to fully replace humans in many ways.

So I have no doubt that companies like Adobe are continuing to advance AI, and they will get to the point where it can create photos and even full length movies that are indistinguishable from something human created. But I come back to the question, will a majority of people want to do that for themselves, and I say for now probably not.

No doubt it’s imperfect, for now. The advance from 2018 in its accuracy to now is quite a leap, let alone the last two years.

Point being there is no going back, AI isn’t going to get “worse” it’s only going to improve in its abilities and results.

Now should this happen? Different story there.

As it relates to Disney. Take a look at the hand drawn animation thread. Not sure who said it but (paraphrasing) “the institutional knowledge for 2d animation isn’t there anymore.”

Doesn’t need to be.

Disney own the IP. Up load it to whatever they are using for AI (if they haven’t already done so) and with enough prompts and tweaks to the style they are configured for it.

Obviously not ready for a full length. Animated feature, yet. But again this isn’t decades away nor is it likely years with the pace of change happening.

 

[Disney Irish]

No doubt it’s imperfect, for now. The advance from 2018 in its accuracy to now is quite a leap, let alone the last two years.

Point being there is no going back, AI isn’t going to get “worse” it’s only going to improve in its abilities and results.

Now should this happen? Different story there.

As it relates to Disney. Take a look at the hand drawn animation thread. Not sure who said it but (paraphrasing) “the institutional knowledge for 2d animation isn’t there anymore.”

Doesn’t need to be.

Disney own the IP. Up load it to whatever they are using for AI (if they haven’t already done so) and with enough prompts and tweaks to the style they are configured for it.

Obviously not ready for a full length. Animated feature, yet. But again this isn’t decades away nor is it likely years with the pace of change happening.

As I mentioned in previous posts and threads, its a tool just like any other that an artist may use from their toolbox. But a full wide scale replacement of a lot of the industry as your previous post alluded to, not likely. Sure some jobs will be lost, but many of those would have been lost by some other technological advancement if not AI. And sure it'll be used to replace industry knowledge that is no longer available, but not replace entire divisions of people. Its a tool, and that is how it should be seen.

But this idea that consumers are going to want to become content creators and drive the entertainment industry out of business as you allude to, doubt it. As mentioned consumers by and large aren't wanting to become creators. The 25 year old in Iowa isn't suddenly wanting to be a filmmaker just because AI tools are now or soon will be better able to make believable content. If they didn't want to become a creator before, AI isn't just suddenly going make them desire that. So there is still a need for a Disney and other studios, and will likely be for many decades to come in my opinion. Until we get a "Ready Player One" virtual room where we all plug into everyday.

At one point in the last decade I feared AI and its impact on society, but having used it in its many forms I can say that fear went away real quick. Its not replacing my job at all before I retire in the next 15 years, its only going to make my job easier. And I suspect the same for many industries over the next 15-20 years, it'll just make more jobs easier not replace them.