Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Disstevefan1]

I have been hearing good things about the Thunderbolts* from regular folks not just pixie dusters and paid shills.

I am optimistic. Let’s see what happens.

 

[Animaniac93-98]

Current prediction for Thunderbolts is $73-$77 million, with Sinners in second at $33 million

Good news is that one didn't cannibalize the other. Both are doing well, and should benefit from no major blockbuster competition between now and Memorial Day weekend.

 

[DKampy]

Rust has finally been released. Been looking forward to this for the setting primarily - 1880s Wyoming, yes please.

Not showing where I live so Amazon Prime it is.

Rust is doing awful in theaters…. Only doing about 25 thousand in 115 theaters… that is only 217 per theater all weekend…. It seems like most are with me…. I will not be seeing this… should of been scrapped… but hey let’s turn a tragedy into a marketing gimmick

 

[BrianLo]

And then yes if someone cares they can go back and review the financials later on. @BrianLo I believe has actually done that if you wanna discuss it.

Here was the homework on 2023. Deadline figures were far more In alignment with the actual financial reports.

My edits were in brackets. TP figured a 1.28B loss, I figured 709, Disney reported 684.

Actually, I'd like to lend further credence to the 2.5X rule. Thank you for @TP2000 - I am literally stealing your homework.

I performed an incredibly, incredibly crude calculation.
(2.5X Production Budget minus The global box office) / 2

I did not bother breaking down the percentages of domestic v. international. Nor did I bother with proposed marketing, that is all baked into the 2.5X. I just want to compare the results to what the company actually reported fiscally.

Studios
Q2 2023 (-50)
Q3 2023 (-243)
Q4 2023 (-149)
Q1 2024 (-224)
Q2 2024 (-18)
--
684 Loss over 5 quarters
709 Loss Based on the super rough 2.5X rule

Marvel Studios = $234 Million Loss
Ant Man: $200 Production/$100 Marketing, $129 Domestic, $100 Overseas = $71 Million Loss (12 Loss)
Guardians 3: $250 Production/$100 Marketing: $215 Domestic, $195 Overseas = $60 Million Profit (110)
The Marvels: $220* Production/$100 Marketing, $51 Domestic, $46 Overseas = $223 Million Loss (234 Loss) - I fixed for the * and used 270 as the budget

Walt Disney Pictures = $276 Million Loss
Haunted Mansion: $158 Production/$75 Marketing, $41 Domestic, $19 Overseas = $173 Million Loss (139 Loss)
The Little Mermaid: $250 Production/$140 Marketing, $179 Domestic, $108 Overseas = $103 Million Loss (14.5 Loss)

Pixar Studios = $74 Million Loss
Elemental: $200 Production/$100 Marketing, $93 Domestic, $133 Overseas = $74 Million Loss (2 Loss)

Walt Disney Animation Studios = $216 Million Loss
Wish: $200 Production/$100 Marketing, $37 Domestic, $47 Overseas = $216 Million Loss (122.5)

Lucasfilm Studios = $212 Million Loss
Indiana Jones 5: $300 Production/$100 Marketing, $105 Domestic, $83 Overseas = $212 Million Loss (180)

Searchlight Pictures =
Chevalier: $46 Production/$15 Marketing, $2 Million Domestic, $200,000 Overseas = $58 Million Loss (55.5)
Theater Camp: $8 Production/$4 Marketing, $2.4 Domestic, $300,000 Overseas = $9 Million Loss (7.5)
Next Goal Wins: $10 Production/$5 Marketing, $4 Domestic, $300,000 Overseas = $10 Million Loss (3)
Poor Things: $35 Production/$15 Marketing, $7 Domestic, $0 Overseas = $43 Million Loss (15 Profit)

20th Century Studios = $116 Million Loss
The Boogeyman: $35 Production/$15 Marketing, $26 Domestic, $16 Overseas = $8 Million Loss (2.5)
A Haunting In Venice: $60 Production/$30 Marketing, $25 Domestic, $29 Overseas = $36 Million Loss (14)
The Creator: $80 Production/$40 Marketing, $25 Domestic, $23 Overseas = $72 Million Loss (48)

2023 Grand Total = $1,284,000,000 Loss (709)

I truly think this is a better *rough* barometer. The final results also line up a lot closer to what Deadline reported as well. https://deadline.com/2024/05/biggest-box-office-bombs-2023-lowest-grossing-movies-1235902825/

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Box Office: ‘Thunderbolts*’ Storming to $73M-$77M Opening, Alec Baldwin’s ‘Rust’ Flops in Cinemas

Marvel's star-studded ensemble pic led by Florence Pugh and Sebastian Stan is winning over critics and audiences alike as it kicks off the summer box office season.

www.hollywoodreporter.com

So officially an uphill battle on thus one?

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Those 2023 numbers were a lot worse than what we kicked around at that time.

Damn

 

[Disney Irish]

Box Office: ‘Thunderbolts*’ Storming to $73M-$77M Opening, Alec Baldwin’s ‘Rust’ Flops in Cinemas

Marvel's star-studded ensemble pic led by Florence Pugh and Sebastian Stan is winning over critics and audiences alike as it kicks off the summer box office season.

www.hollywoodreporter.com

So officially an uphill battle on thus one?

Audience scores seem to indicate that that hill might be more of a small foothill rather than a mountain, ie it seems to indicate it might actually have legs....

We'll see how the rest of the weekend and the upcoming weeks unfolds.

 

[Disney Irish]

Those 2023 numbers were a lot worse than what we kicked around at that time.

Damn

Not really, numbers thrown around by TP and others were worse than the actuals. So it could have been far worse, but in the long scheme of things its a single bad year and will be forgotten after a few good years.

 

[TalkingHead]

Rust is doing awful in theaters…. Only doing about 25 thousand in 115 theaters… that is only 217 per theater all weekend…. It seems like most are with me…. I will not be seeing this… should of been scrapped… but hey let’s turn a tragedy into a marketing gimmick

Thought I read that the family of the DP wanted it released or that the box office would be going to them?

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Audience scores seem to indicate that that hill might be more of a small foothill rather than a mountain, ie it seems to indicate it might actually have legs....

We'll see how the rest of the weekend and the upcoming weeks unfolds.

A $75 mil opening would not be good.

Not really, numbers thrown around by TP and others were worse than the actuals. So it could have been far worse, but in the long scheme of things its a single bad year and will be forgotten after a few good years.

Yes…really

$103 mil loss for poor Hallee

 

[Disney Irish]

A $75 mil opening would not be good.


Yes…really

$103 mil loss for poor Hallee

Good is relative, I’m also thinking it does closer to $80M or just over. Drops will be more interesting as time goes on, but scores indicate a potential $500M+ final.

Also if you read you’d notice that $103M for TLM was not the correct number, it was $14.5M. TP over inflated all the numbers by over $500M when compared to the actuals. So no not really.

 

[Willmark]

Rust is doing awful in theaters…. Only doing about 25 thousand in 115 theaters… that is only 217 per theater all weekend…. It seems like most are with me…. I will not be seeing this… should of been scrapped… but hey let’s turn a tragedy into a marketing gimmick

I want to see it because it’s a western. I’m staying out of what surrounds it.

 

[Ghost93]

I don't think the Thunderbolt's opening weekend box office is very good (it's comparable to pandemic-era releases like Shang-Chi and Eternals), but we should wait till weekend 2 before we determine whether the movie will have legs or not and whether the situation is salvageable.

While I think Thunderbolts is a pretty good movie, it's poor box office is the film paying for the sins of so many bad/mediocre Marvel movies that have been released within the past few years — Thor Love and Thunder, Ant-man and the Wasp: Quantumania, The Marvels and most recently Captain America: Brave New World.

The Marvel brand has been significantly damaged and I think it will take several good/great films coming out in a row to restore it.

Fantastic Four: The First Steps needs to be good/great. Anything below an 80% on Rotten Tomatoes would be extremely concerning for the MCU going forward.

 

[Serpico Jones]

Feige should’ve left for DC 3 years ago when he had the chance. Marvel has been mostly a disaster these last few years.

 

[TalkingHead]

Sold fewer tickets OW than any movie except The Marvels. 70% of Thunderbolts crowd was over 25.

Think they’ve passed the point where a reset would help. These films have to do four quad business because of their cost. Bringing in 50 characters for cameos in a team-up collab isn’t going to work more than once, and maybe not even then with the budget and salaries.

MCU is firmly in the SW category now, interesting to the diehards who suck up every bit of content and ignored by casuals.

 

[Tony the Tigger]

Rian Johnson Says ‘I Don’t’ Agree With Netflix CEO Over Movie Theater Model Being ‘Outdated’: I Want ‘Knives Out 3’ in ‘Many Theaters For as Long as Possible’

Rian Johnson does not agree with Netflix CEO Ted Sarandos when it becomes to movie theaters being "outdated."

variety.com

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Rian Johnson Says ‘I Don’t’ Agree With Netflix CEO Over Movie Theater Model Being ‘Outdated’: I Want ‘Knives Out 3’ in ‘Many Theaters For as Long as Possible’

Rian Johnson does not agree with Netflix CEO Ted Sarandos when it becomes to movie theaters being "outdated."

variety.com

Well there’s a guy who has zero bearing on what studios with blockbusters should do

 

[Tony the Tigger]

The Marvel brand has been significantly damaged and I think it will take several good/great films coming out in a row to restore it.

Sticking with my earlier take: the trailers were not compelling. I’m hearing the film is better than I expected because even reading reviews from friends on Facebook who are not super fans, they thought this was a B list or worse of rag tag mix of superheroes, and they are pleasantly surprised with the well-done film. I have not had a chance to see it yet.

I’ve seen Disney trailers fail their films a lot in the last few years - from Wish to Planet of the Apes to Snow White.

I know trailers often misdirect a bit rather than give everything away, to leave some surprises in the theaters, but I think they could be doing a better job.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Good is relative, I’m also thinking it does closer to $80M or just over. Drops will be more interesting as time goes on, but scores indicate a potential $500M+ final.

Also if you read you’d notice that $103M for TLM was not the correct number, it was $14.5M. TP over inflated all the numbers by over $500M when compared to the actuals. So no not really.

Time for the daily Reminder: what is the goal of releasing a movie again?

 

[Disstevefan1]

Time for the daily Reminder: what is the goal of releasing a movie again?

For Disney’s movie business it’s simply making the movies they want to make.

For other movie studios, they may take the incorrect path to make movies that sell tickets; bring folks into the theaters to buy concessions so that both the studio and the theater can make money and can support Hollywood.