Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Sirwalterraleigh]

In case you didn’t understand the reference.

But I’m glad we have your permission now to talk about Thunderbolts with a modicum of optimism.

Welcome to the dark side as it were!

That was based on tracking…and it still may be true

You’re now banking a hit?

Might want to see if it holds…

We make a lot of predictions based on reprice and what’s put out there…somethings break both ways.

Mufasa “overchieved”…as it turned out. Little mermaid didn’t

But most things break the way they appear they will….including the two this year so far

 

[BrianLo]

That was based on tracking…and it still may be true

You’re now banking a hit?

Might want to see if it holds…

We make a lot of predictions based on reprice and what’s put out there…somethings break both ways.

Mufasa “overchieved”…as it turned out. Little mermaid didn’t

But most things break the way they appear they will….including the two this year so far

Nothing wrong with predictions, we all are often wildly wrong. But perhaps try not to put insulting qualifiers on them.

I hope Thunderbolts breaks well. I’d like it to. As I said, it didn’t make sense to my why you were seemingly cheering for it to do poorly, when we knew at the time it was a good movie. It makes far more sense for your current position to look forward to see how it does.

That is what I’m here for, hoping to see good movies do well.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Nothing wrong with predictions, we all are often wildly wrong. But perhaps try not to put insulting qualifiers on them.

I hope Thunderbolts breaks well. I’d like it to. As I said, it didn’t make sense to my why you were seemingly cheering for it to do poorly, when we knew at the time it was a good movie. It makes far more sense for your current position to look forward to see how it does.

That is what I’m here for, hoping to see good movies do well.

The Disney studios need a course correction…because they are not meeting their market

Just like the upper management is failing to meet its market on a variety of fronts.

It’s not “wishing for failure”…it’s demanding accountability.

Guess who the “worst” fans are? It’s the ones who want it to outlive our our own lives.

You don’t get that by making excuses as the consumer. We’re not on the same the side as the suits.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I think you're overestimating the marketing again as @BrianLo has pointed out before. So the breakeven is in the $415M-$450M range.

Are they still not including reshoots in the production budget?

There are tricks on both sides of the budget playbook…

No, ‘Brave New World' Budget Isn’t $180M; It Actually Cost $380M — World of Reel

If you want an inside peek at how the Hollywood spin machine works then look no further than what’s happening with “Captain America: Brave New World.”

www.worldofreel.com

We should keep an eye down the road when the real figures are buried in financial reports…as those pesky public company rules are required to file (after shell game and delay tactics)…

Can you take these “insider” reports from Hollywood at face value? Not wise…but do they sound absurd? No. What would be the advantage to writing them anyway?

Maybe break even points are inflated?…but it’s just as likely studios trying to do damage control under more strain (ahem)…are exerting pressure to report them down…truth be damned

Afterall…some clowns think tentpoles cost $350 to make because of paper masks…then one guy did the thanos snap and lowered the cost by half in a week.

I know…adulting is such a bummer

 

[Disney Irish]

Are they still not including reshoots in the production budget?

There are tricks on both sides of the budget playbook…

No, ‘Brave New World' Budget Isn’t $180M; It Actually Cost $380M — World of Reel

If you want an inside peek at how the Hollywood spin machine works then look no further than what’s happening with “Captain America: Brave New World.”

www.worldofreel.com

We should keep an eye down the road when the real figures are buried in financial reports…as those pesky public company rules are required to file (after shell game and delay tactics)…

Can you take these “insider” reports from Hollywood at face value? Not wise…but do they sound absurd? No. What would be the advantage to writing them anyway?

Maybe break even points are inflated?…but it’s just as likely studios trying to do damage control under more strain (ahem)…are exerting pressure to report them down…truth be damned

Afterall…some clowns think tentpoles cost $350 to make because of paper masks…then one guy did the thanos snap and lowered the cost by half in a week.

I know…adulting is such a bummer

So we’re back to this again? Thought we had enough of that earlier this year, guess not.

It’s funny how there is never any “reports” of reshoot budgets for any other studio only the one with a mouse mascot. Funny huh. Do no other studios have needs for reshoots? I mean we know that movies from other studios have had extensive reshoots too but we never hear any “reports” of how much it cost. Guess they must have been free or was only a couple Million? But grievances gotta continue so must be that Disney is the only one spending money on reshoots.

Anyways as these “reports” can vary based on the source we can never take them at face value. Not that they don’t happen but we can never know what value to use as you can never know what or who to believe in those situations. So as has been discussed a bunch of times here we just take the reported budget and use that for our discussions. And then yes if someone cares they can go back and review the financials later on. @BrianLo I believe has actually done that if you wanna discuss it.

Lastly since you’ve brought it up recently as some measure, the stock market don’t care about individual movie budgets/profits or if they had $500M in reshoots. It only cares about the overall final financials for Studios. As long as the number is positive Disney can have as huge of budgets as they want or spend Billions on reshoots, no one is going to care other than some people who like to air their grievances on the interwebs. Bummer huh.

 

[Disney Irish]

Could be a good sign for legs....

 

[Disstevefan1]

I have been hearing good things about the Thunderbolts* from regular folks not just pixie dusters and paid shills.

I am optimistic. Let’s see what happens.

 

[Animaniac93-98]

Current prediction for Thunderbolts is $73-$77 million, with Sinners in second at $33 million

Good news is that one didn't cannibalize the other. Both are doing well, and should benefit from no major blockbuster competition between now and Memorial Day weekend.

 

[DKampy]

Rust has finally been released. Been looking forward to this for the setting primarily - 1880s Wyoming, yes please.

Not showing where I live so Amazon Prime it is.

Rust is doing awful in theaters…. Only doing about 25 thousand in 115 theaters… that is only 217 per theater all weekend…. It seems like most are with me…. I will not be seeing this… should of been scrapped… but hey let’s turn a tragedy into a marketing gimmick

 

[BrianLo]

And then yes if someone cares they can go back and review the financials later on. @BrianLo I believe has actually done that if you wanna discuss it.

Here was the homework on 2023. Deadline figures were far more In alignment with the actual financial reports.

My edits were in brackets. TP figured a 1.28B loss, I figured 709, Disney reported 684.

Actually, I'd like to lend further credence to the 2.5X rule. Thank you for @TP2000 - I am literally stealing your homework.

I performed an incredibly, incredibly crude calculation.
(2.5X Production Budget minus The global box office) / 2

I did not bother breaking down the percentages of domestic v. international. Nor did I bother with proposed marketing, that is all baked into the 2.5X. I just want to compare the results to what the company actually reported fiscally.

Studios
Q2 2023 (-50)
Q3 2023 (-243)
Q4 2023 (-149)
Q1 2024 (-224)
Q2 2024 (-18)
--
684 Loss over 5 quarters
709 Loss Based on the super rough 2.5X rule

Marvel Studios = $234 Million Loss
Ant Man: $200 Production/$100 Marketing, $129 Domestic, $100 Overseas = $71 Million Loss (12 Loss)
Guardians 3: $250 Production/$100 Marketing: $215 Domestic, $195 Overseas = $60 Million Profit (110)
The Marvels: $220* Production/$100 Marketing, $51 Domestic, $46 Overseas = $223 Million Loss (234 Loss) - I fixed for the * and used 270 as the budget

Walt Disney Pictures = $276 Million Loss
Haunted Mansion: $158 Production/$75 Marketing, $41 Domestic, $19 Overseas = $173 Million Loss (139 Loss)
The Little Mermaid: $250 Production/$140 Marketing, $179 Domestic, $108 Overseas = $103 Million Loss (14.5 Loss)

Pixar Studios = $74 Million Loss
Elemental: $200 Production/$100 Marketing, $93 Domestic, $133 Overseas = $74 Million Loss (2 Loss)

Walt Disney Animation Studios = $216 Million Loss
Wish: $200 Production/$100 Marketing, $37 Domestic, $47 Overseas = $216 Million Loss (122.5)

Lucasfilm Studios = $212 Million Loss
Indiana Jones 5: $300 Production/$100 Marketing, $105 Domestic, $83 Overseas = $212 Million Loss (180)

Searchlight Pictures =
Chevalier: $46 Production/$15 Marketing, $2 Million Domestic, $200,000 Overseas = $58 Million Loss (55.5)
Theater Camp: $8 Production/$4 Marketing, $2.4 Domestic, $300,000 Overseas = $9 Million Loss (7.5)
Next Goal Wins: $10 Production/$5 Marketing, $4 Domestic, $300,000 Overseas = $10 Million Loss (3)
Poor Things: $35 Production/$15 Marketing, $7 Domestic, $0 Overseas = $43 Million Loss (15 Profit)

20th Century Studios = $116 Million Loss
The Boogeyman: $35 Production/$15 Marketing, $26 Domestic, $16 Overseas = $8 Million Loss (2.5)
A Haunting In Venice: $60 Production/$30 Marketing, $25 Domestic, $29 Overseas = $36 Million Loss (14)
The Creator: $80 Production/$40 Marketing, $25 Domestic, $23 Overseas = $72 Million Loss (48)

2023 Grand Total = $1,284,000,000 Loss (709)

I truly think this is a better *rough* barometer. The final results also line up a lot closer to what Deadline reported as well. https://deadline.com/2024/05/biggest-box-office-bombs-2023-lowest-grossing-movies-1235902825/

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Box Office: ‘Thunderbolts*’ Storming to $73M-$77M Opening, Alec Baldwin’s ‘Rust’ Flops in Cinemas

Marvel's star-studded ensemble pic led by Florence Pugh and Sebastian Stan is winning over critics and audiences alike as it kicks off the summer box office season.

www.hollywoodreporter.com

So officially an uphill battle on thus one?

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Those 2023 numbers were a lot worse than what we kicked around at that time.

Damn

 

[Disney Irish]

Box Office: ‘Thunderbolts*’ Storming to $73M-$77M Opening, Alec Baldwin’s ‘Rust’ Flops in Cinemas

Marvel's star-studded ensemble pic led by Florence Pugh and Sebastian Stan is winning over critics and audiences alike as it kicks off the summer box office season.

www.hollywoodreporter.com

So officially an uphill battle on thus one?

Audience scores seem to indicate that that hill might be more of a small foothill rather than a mountain, ie it seems to indicate it might actually have legs....

We'll see how the rest of the weekend and the upcoming weeks unfolds.

 

[Disney Irish]

Those 2023 numbers were a lot worse than what we kicked around at that time.

Damn

Not really, numbers thrown around by TP and others were worse than the actuals. So it could have been far worse, but in the long scheme of things its a single bad year and will be forgotten after a few good years.

 

[TalkingHead]

Rust is doing awful in theaters…. Only doing about 25 thousand in 115 theaters… that is only 217 per theater all weekend…. It seems like most are with me…. I will not be seeing this… should of been scrapped… but hey let’s turn a tragedy into a marketing gimmick

Thought I read that the family of the DP wanted it released or that the box office would be going to them?

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Audience scores seem to indicate that that hill might be more of a small foothill rather than a mountain, ie it seems to indicate it might actually have legs....

We'll see how the rest of the weekend and the upcoming weeks unfolds.

A $75 mil opening would not be good.

Not really, numbers thrown around by TP and others were worse than the actuals. So it could have been far worse, but in the long scheme of things its a single bad year and will be forgotten after a few good years.

Yes…really

$103 mil loss for poor Hallee

 

[Disney Irish]

A $75 mil opening would not be good.


Yes…really

$103 mil loss for poor Hallee

Good is relative, I’m also thinking it does closer to $80M or just over. Drops will be more interesting as time goes on, but scores indicate a potential $500M+ final.

Also if you read you’d notice that $103M for TLM was not the correct number, it was $14.5M. TP over inflated all the numbers by over $500M when compared to the actuals. So no not really.

 

[Willmark]

Rust is doing awful in theaters…. Only doing about 25 thousand in 115 theaters… that is only 217 per theater all weekend…. It seems like most are with me…. I will not be seeing this… should of been scrapped… but hey let’s turn a tragedy into a marketing gimmick

I want to see it because it’s a western. I’m staying out of what surrounds it.

 

[Ghost93]

I don't think the Thunderbolt's opening weekend box office is very good (it's comparable to pandemic-era releases like Shang-Chi and Eternals), but we should wait till weekend 2 before we determine whether the movie will have legs or not and whether the situation is salvageable.

While I think Thunderbolts is a pretty good movie, it's poor box office is the film paying for the sins of so many bad/mediocre Marvel movies that have been released within the past few years — Thor Love and Thunder, Ant-man and the Wasp: Quantumania, The Marvels and most recently Captain America: Brave New World.

The Marvel brand has been significantly damaged and I think it will take several good/great films coming out in a row to restore it.

Fantastic Four: The First Steps needs to be good/great. Anything below an 80% on Rotten Tomatoes would be extremely concerning for the MCU going forward.

 

[Serpico Jones]

Feige should’ve left for DC 3 years ago when he had the chance. Marvel has been mostly a disaster these last few years.