Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[Figgy1]

Do NBA teams have over 100 employees? NFL for sure does but with NBA roster sizes and coaching staff sizes there would be a lot of front office people to get to 100.

Each individual team would. Players, coaches, trainers, doctors, scouts, office staff............................................

 

[Kevin_W]

Back in late July, I did an analysis of the FL outbreak spike and predicted that the peak of the seven day rolling average would likely be on or about 8/21 and that it would subside to the pre-spike levels around 9/27, just in time for the 50th. The peak wasn't captured in the case data because the positivity got so high during the plateau but the hospitalization graph shows the likely real shape of the case curve. I drew in red what it probably really looked like. If you take the endpoints of the plateau and find the middle you get 8/21.

The rate of decline slowed a bit this week likely due to some combination of labor day and school starting a few weeks ago. If the rate of decline doesn't increase again then it could be 4-6 weeks from now to get back down to that 1500 case per day level and sustained under 5% positivity. If the rate of decline increases again it will probably the first week of October.

My unsophisticated model didn't have the ability to predict the effect of labor day changing the variables up.

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IF I recall, your prediction was basically taking the India/UK curve shape, right? It does look like it's followed the India pattern fairly well of tearing through in abotu 2 months.

 

[Lilofan]

Do NBA teams have over 100 employees? NFL for sure does but with NBA roster sizes and coaching staff sizes there would be a lot of front office people to get to 100.

When NBA teams travel on the road you don't see 100 or more staff. When I stayed in a resort and the Chicago Bulls were there during the playoffs, there were several coaches, exec staff , trainers, team doctor, PR assistants and the players all about 35 people. During the time that they were that doesn't include the visiting women that spent time with some of the players in the resort to keep them company.

 

[carolina_yankee]

Port Orleans to me is not the same after the all u can eat breakfast buffet at French Quarter was discontinued years ago. All u can eat breakfast items including grilled sirloin steak and sugary beignets ( reminds me of the best ones at Cafe du Monde in New Orleans, no longer 24/7) .

This post reminds me that the one thing the dining plan has not been blamed for is the Pandemic. It's not the root of all evil! Just most evil.

 

[Heppenheimer]

I'm only sorry my first introduction to it was only in 1985, right after the Phoenix started running there. Love that place!

I haven't visited since the 90s, but Knoebels was a big part of my childhood summers. It was surprisingly unknown outside of the coal region, since nobody in my suburban Philadelphia social circle had ever heard of it, much less visited. Loved the Phoenix, the Whipper, the Grand Carousel, the Cosmatron, the Haunted Mansion (best haunted house ride outside of Disney parks), and of course, the world's best bumper cars (this is scientific fact, not up for debate!). Summer nights under those trees were simply magical. Almost like a trip back in time.

 

[DisneyCane]

IF I recall, your prediction was basically taking the India/UK curve shape, right? It does look like it's followed the India pattern fairly well of tearing through in abotu 2 months.

Yes. I overlayed the FL outbreak on top of the other 2. UK diverged from India after my analysis.

 

[Nubs70]

Yes. I overlayed the FL outbreak on top of the other 2. UK diverged from India after my analysis.

So if we hold to the UK curve, current infection rate will hold at an elevated rate for some time. Not the bell curve that was hoped for.

 

[matt9112]

Fair point. I should have said I’m not a moderator so I have no authority to tell you what to talk about.

As an aside this is common practice on forums and or any form of social media right? The freedom of speech (inherently not given to citizens of every nation on earth already) ends when you partake others platforms. However a thought i just had.

If it stops at coming out of your own mouth in person and dies on social media or a forum etc than does that mean free speech is effectively dead? Since times have changed and in theory this is mearly a discussion amongst peoples. The same as in person? Because we dont hawk at a podium or on a crate in a town square? When does the internet in all of its collective forms of communication get those protections.

 

[GoofGoof]

Do NBA teams have over 100 employees? NFL for sure does but with NBA roster sizes and coaching staff sizes there would be a lot of front office people to get to 100.

I would assume yes. It’s not just the players which may only be 15 but there are a lot of basketball operations roles between coaches, trainers and scouts. Most teams now have both college scouts and scouts that work overseas. I would assume 25-30 people in those roles per team. So around 50 for just players and direct basketball operations. Then you add in support staff. Sales, marketing, guest relations and season ticket retention people, HR, finance, It, entertainment (including dancers and intermission entertainment in the arena - not sure if they are part time and counted), the broadcast team including the crew. It all adds up. I would say most teams are over 100.

 

[Heppenheimer]

As an aside this is common practice on forums and or any form of social media right? The freedom of speech (inherently not given to citizens of every nation on earth already) ends when you partake others platforms. However a thought i just had.

If it stops at coming out of your own mouth in person and dies on social media or a forum etc than does that mean free speech is effectively dead? Since times have changed and in theory this is mearly a discussion amongst peoples. The same as in person? Because we dont hawk at a podium or on a crate in a town square? When does the internet in all of its collective forms of communication get those protections.

I won't get into the First Amendment issues (not something I feel qualified to discuss anyway), but keep in mind we are using a website owned and operated in the UK, so US laws wouldn't even be relevant here. And I won't claim any knowledge on the applicable UK laws.

 

[matt9112]

There's nothing unconstitutional about Biden's actions. There's also nothing stopping congress from acting too.

I mean osha or pick your favorite goverment agency shouldn't even have the broad powers they enjoy. Constitutionally legal is really an opinion as the interpretation of the constitution is (somehow) an opinion. People legitimately disagree with what the words mean etc. The rights of the people were meant to be first and foremost and congress was "given" rights to do x y z not the other way around. We gave congress the right to do this or that. However this again...would just be my interpretation of the consititutional design.

 

[matt9112]

I won't get into the First Amendment issues (not something I feel qualified to discuss anyway), but keep in mind we are using a website owned and operated in the UK, so US laws wouldn't even be relevant here. And I won't claim any knowledge on the applicable UK laws.

Thats why i wasn't paraphrasing it as a rule or law issue. Just a human issue.

 

[GoofGoof]

As an aside this is common practice on forums and or any form of social media right? The freedom of speech (inherently not given to citizens of every nation on earth already) ends when you partake others platforms. However a thought i just had.

If it stops at coming out of your own mouth in person and dies on social media or a forum etc than does that mean free speech is effectively dead? Since times have changed and in theory this is mearly a discussion amongst peoples. The same as in person? Because we dont hawk at a podium or on a crate in a town square? When does the internet in all of its collective forms of communication get those protections.

I think you have a false perception of free speech. We are constitutionally protected from the government restricting our free speech unless it’s dangerous (yelling fire in a movie theater). However, there has never been a guarantee of free speech in a private setting. You can’t walk into a Jewish Temple and start yelling anti-semitic stuff. They will throw you out. Extreme example, but people seem to feel freedom of speech means you can say whatever you want wherever you want which has never been true. This forum and many others have rules established on what you can and can‘t talk about here. That doesn’t prevent you from talking about politics other places you just can’t do it here.

 

[GoofGoof]

I mean osha or pick your favorite goverment agency shouldn't even have the broad powers they enjoy. Constitutionally legal is really an opinion as the interpretation of the constitution is (somehow) an opinion. People legitimately disagree with what the words mean etc. The rights of the people were meant to be first and foremost and congress was "given" rights to do x y z not the other way around. We gave congress the right to do this or that. However this again...would just be my interpretation of the consititutional design.

That authority was granted by an act of Congress 50 years ago. It’s entirely possible to limit the authority bjt that would need to be done by Congress.

 

[DisneyCane]

I mean osha or pick your favorite goverment agency shouldn't even have the broad powers they enjoy. Constitutionally legal is really an opinion as the interpretation of the constitution is (somehow) an opinion. People legitimately disagree with what the words mean etc. The rights of the people were meant to be first and foremost and congress was "given" rights to do x y z not the other way around. We gave congress the right to do this or that. However this again...would just be my interpretation of the consititutional design.

The biggest issue with the Federal Government is that when congress created these agencies, they gave them the power to make whatever rules they wanted to without needing congressional approval for anything. I know that for a lot of things, the particular rules are outside of the area of expertise for congress. However, they should have put something in when they created all of these agencies that any new or changed regulation must get approved by at least a congressional committee.

OSHA is probably somewhat limited in that they will have to justify things in court and show they are necessary for workplace safety. The constitution needs so much interpretation because it was written somewhat vaguely. The vast majority of things done by the Federal Government are broad interpretations of providing for the "general welfare."

 

[DisneyCane]

I think you have a false perception of free speech. We are constitutionally protected from the government restricting our free speech unless it’s dangerous (yelling fire in a movie theater). However, there has never been a guarantee of free speech in a private setting. You can’t walk into a Jewish Temple and start yelling anti-semitic stuff. They will throw you out. Extreme example, but people seem to feel freedom of speech means you can say whatever you want wherever you want which has never been true. This forum and many others have rules established on what you can and can‘t talk about here. That doesn’t prevent you from talking about politics other places you just can’t do it here.

You are correct. The constitutional protection was to prevent the government from censoring the political speech of the population. It was never meant to be "I can say whatever I want, wherever I want." It absolutely doesn't apply to private settings. A movie theatre can have a silence rule and kick you out for talking at all if they want to, let alone yelling "fire."

 

[Nubs70]

You are correct. The constitutional protection was to prevent the government from censoring the political speech of the population. It was never meant to be "I can say whatever I want, wherever I want." It absolutely doesn't apply to private settings. A movie theatre can have a silence rule and kick you out for talking at all if they want to, let alone yelling "fire."

yelling fire only applies to a situation where one yells "fire" and no fire exists.

 

[lazyboy97o]

When NBA teams travel on the road you don't see 100 or more staff. When I stayed in a resort and the Chicago Bulls were there during the playoffs, there were several coaches, exec staff , trainers, team doctor, PR assistants and the players all about 35 people. During the time that they were that doesn't include the visiting women that spent time with some of the players in the resort to keep them company.

There are all sorts of roles that would not come along for an away games. Why would the accountant who handles payroll need to come along? Or the practice facility maintenance staff?

 

[danlb_2000]

Do NBA teams have over 100 employees? NFL for sure does but with NBA roster sizes and coaching staff sizes there would be a lot of front office people to get to 100.

Here is the front office directory for the Sixers. I stopped counting at around 150.

Staff Directory | Philadelphia 76ers

www.nba.com

 

[MisterPenguin]

The biggest issue with the Federal Government is that when congress created these agencies, they gave them the power to make whatever rules they wanted to without needing congressional approval for anything.

There are rules as to what rules can be made. Usually there are requirements for scientific/data findings from experts and a period of announcing proposed rules for public comment and review.

Many an agency regulation has been struck down by a court for failing to follow these rules, or for not following where the science or data leads, or going beyond their Congressional mandate.

We've seen the last-minute regulations of an administration being quickly dismantled because they didn't follow the rules of creating those new regulations. However, the regulations that did follow the rules takes months and months for the next administration to reverse (if it wants to) because the reversal has to go through the lengthy review process (and then withstand legal challenges).

E.g., these new OSHA rules can't go into effect immediately, unless there is a provision for emergency rules. And then such rules can be challenged for not being an emergency, or for not following the science, or for infringing on other Constitutional or Legislative rights and laws. And even with an emergency issuance, it will need to be followed up with the regular procedures or lose it's enforcement power.

The alternative is to have Congress micromanage all these administrative regulations, and I think we all know how well they are up to that task. That being said, Congress can, if it wanted and had the will and the votes, create a new and specific regulation (or strike one down) that the appropriate agencies would have to follow.