AEfx
Well-Known Member
That's what is so scary to me. He's right. It boggles my mind.
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Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion
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That's what is so scary to me. He's right. It boggles my mind.
Polkadotdress
Well-Known Member
You are a magician, always having the facts!
But, I thought yesterday’s numbers were 24K, and I see now they’ve been adjusted down to 20K???
Andrew C
You know what's funny?
Smart move.
Virtual Toad
Well-Known Member
Thought I would share some good news: mother-in-law in nursing home (vaccinated Alzheimer’s patient) has now tested negative for COVID after a positive test two weeks ago. She remains isolated along with other vaxxed residents and there are still no visitors allowed, but she remained asymptomatic throughout and is in good spirits. Without the vaccine she would definitely not have fared as well. Thanks again to all who expressed their well wishes. One step forward....
There can often be some small fluctuation in numbers, but 4k sure seems like a lot.
kong1802
Well-Known Member
That does not look like a plateau…
Polkadotdress
Well-Known Member
I can understand there being an INCREASE in the numbers due to locations not reporting in a timely manner, but a DECREASE??? How does the FL Health Dept justify that? “Oops, we inadvertently counted some as positive when they were actually negative!”
So frustrating that our numbers cannot be relied upon to tell the true story.
Better coworkers.
Just let them know covid can cause ED. ED and baby making do not go together
Covid and impotence: the evidence firms up
Research is preliminary but it all points in the same direction
thewhyaxis.substack.com
Disney Experience
Well-Known Member
Another study showing that in Israel that time since vaccination is positively correlated to risk of infection.( How positive does vary by age group ). There can be confounding factors ( demographics of who was vaccinated when, who takes a PCR test, etc.). Study data is from May through July so includes delta. Israel uses Pfizer.
www.medrxiv.org
Elapsed time since BNT162b2 vaccine and risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection in a large cohort
Importance Israel was among the first countries to launch a large-scale COVID-19 vaccination campaign, and quickly vaccinated its population, achieving early control over the spread of the virus. However, the number of COVID-19 cases is now rapidly increasing, which may indicate that vaccine...
www.medrxiv.org
Miami Herald on the shifting COVID numbers -
"Florida on Wednesday reported 20,656 more COVID-19 cases to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The state also reported 357 new deaths.
The jump in cases and deaths are a sum of many changes to previous daily totals the CDC made Thursday.
The CDC has changed the way it reports cases and deaths in Florida. It now publishes cases and deaths based on the date of occurrence — instead of the date that it was reported to the agency.
The reason is due to the Florida Department of Health submitting a complete renewed set of case data to the CDC everyday, including retrospective COVID-19 cases, Weesam Khoury, the Florida DOH communications director, told the Miami Herald.
“This will ensure that continuous epidemiological analyses provide the most updated data to the public,” Khoury said.
The Herald is still presenting daily totals as the difference between cumulative total of new cases from one day to the next.
As numerous daily totals were changed, Florida’s new highest single day increase of cases was on Wednesday with 24,869 cases. However that total may change in future just as Tuesday’s original daily total of 24,753, which at the time was the highest single day record, lowered to 20,465 on Thursday when the CDC posted its newest data.
Florida’s cumulative increase of 357 deaths on Thursday made up of changes on many days in the past was the highest in pandemic history. It is unclear if this large increase is due to the addition of outside factors, such as non-resident deaths or a backlog not yet reported deaths on past dates."
"Florida on Wednesday reported 20,656 more COVID-19 cases to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The state also reported 357 new deaths.
The jump in cases and deaths are a sum of many changes to previous daily totals the CDC made Thursday.
The CDC has changed the way it reports cases and deaths in Florida. It now publishes cases and deaths based on the date of occurrence — instead of the date that it was reported to the agency.
The reason is due to the Florida Department of Health submitting a complete renewed set of case data to the CDC everyday, including retrospective COVID-19 cases, Weesam Khoury, the Florida DOH communications director, told the Miami Herald.
“This will ensure that continuous epidemiological analyses provide the most updated data to the public,” Khoury said.
The Herald is still presenting daily totals as the difference between cumulative total of new cases from one day to the next.
As numerous daily totals were changed, Florida’s new highest single day increase of cases was on Wednesday with 24,869 cases. However that total may change in future just as Tuesday’s original daily total of 24,753, which at the time was the highest single day record, lowered to 20,465 on Thursday when the CDC posted its newest data.
Florida’s cumulative increase of 357 deaths on Thursday made up of changes on many days in the past was the highest in pandemic history. It is unclear if this large increase is due to the addition of outside factors, such as non-resident deaths or a backlog not yet reported deaths on past dates."
Disney Experience
Well-Known Member
A study showing that vaccination in a country does reduce SARS-CoV-2 mutation rate. ( Not yet peer reviewed)
www.medrxiv.org
Full vaccination suppresses SARS-CoV-2 delta variant mutation frequency
This study presents the first evidence that full vaccination against COVID-19 suppresses emergent mutations of SARS-CoV-2 delta variants. An evolution algorithm, Tajima’s D test with a threshold value as -2.50, can provide a promising tool to forecast new COVID-19 outbreaks. Question It remains...
www.medrxiv.org
GoofGoof
Premium Member
The italic below is from the CDC website:
Data will update Monday through Saturday as soon as they are reviewed and verified, oftentimes before 8 pm ET. However, daily updates (Mon-Sat) might be delayed due to delays in reported data. Data posted on COVID Data Tracker may vary from data on jurisdictional websites due to when data are reported to CDC.
Total cases are based on aggregate counts of COVID-19 cases reported by state and territorial jurisdictions to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) since January 21, 2020, with the exception of persons repatriated to the United States from Wuhan, China, and Japan. All displayed counts include confirmed COVID-19 cases and deaths as reported by U.S. states, U.S. territories, New York City (NYC), and the District of Columbia from the previous day. In accordance with the CSTE definition of COVID-19 cases and deaths, counts for many jurisdictions include both confirmed and probable COVID-19 cases and deaths. COVID-19 case and death data that are not available to CDC are denoted by N/A. For aggregate state-level data, CDC calculates the number of new cases or deaths each day either by using the information provided by states and territorial jurisdictions or by calculating the difference in cumulative counts reported by the state from the day before. CDC also is working closely with states and jurisdictions to incorporate their historical data
I think the bolded areas could explain some of the differences. If the numbers include both confirmed and probable cases and some of the probables come back negative that would result in an adjustment down. The other possibility is they used the difference in cumulative totals as the initial number reported but then the state clarified some of the difference was in prior days data not reported correctly.
The good news so far is the reporting errors were all overstatements of cases and the actual cases were lower. Any reduction is good news
JoeCamel
Well-Known Member
Still makes me wonder where all those people went. Double counts from multiple sources? Maybe....The italic below is from the CDC website:
The good news so far is the reporting errors were all overstatements of cases and the actual cases were lower. Any reduction is good news
GoofGoof
Premium Member
Yeah, 4K is a lot, but I guess as they case numbers go up the error goes up with it.
GoofGoof
Premium Member
Not a plateau for sure, but the increase in cases has slowed.
Below are the 7 day moving averages:
8/11 21,210 up 17% week over week
8/4 18,092 up 27% week over week
7/28 14,198 up 59% week over week
7/21 8,915 up 59% week over week
7/14 5,594
So the curve hasn’t declined or even plateaued but the growth in new cases has slowed and the slope of the curve is not as steep. It’s pretty hard to find the positive when we’re seeing 21K cases for a 7 day average but the slope is getting less steep. It’s something
hopemax
Well-Known Member
The problem of looking for a plateau is that it only takes some sort of "event" to kick things off again. 4th of July was an event, and now that after 6 weeks later things are settling out. But school starting is an event, and Labor Day is another event. I would wait before declaring victory over Delta.
GoofGoof
Premium Member
Who declared victory. Way to create a straw man to try to label people. Sometimes I just don’t get people
hopemax
Well-Known Member
I'm on vacation, and don't want to spend too much time responding. Sometimes I don't get people either who will crucify people over the use of a single word.Who declared victory. Way to create a straw man to try to label people. Sometimes I just don’t get people
It's obvious people are looking for every sign that this is part is coming to an end. People have been declaring premature endings this whole time.
GoofGoof
Premium Member
Yes, most people want this to end. Obviously not all
hopemax
Well-Known Member
Are you seriously accusing me of not wanting this to end?Yes, most people want this to end. Obviously not all
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