Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[disneygeek90]

Data has appeared to have populated for Florida weekend numbers and yikes (divided between the two days).
July 7th- 28,316
July 8th- 28,317

 

[Andrew M]

A bit too early to say it has peaked in Orange County, but at least it's downward over the weekend (including positivity rate)

While I know break-through cases are a thing, it's obviously nowhere near as common as unvaccinated individuals catching it. Since there is atleast a decent portion of the country that is vaccinated, I'm hoping that this wave will be over quicker. Between either vaccinated individuals or those being infected already, there's a much lesser number of people for it to run through.

 

[Casper Gutman]

Please don't get me wrong. I highlighted the hospitals post in regards to the fact that disinformation occurs on both sides.
As far as YouTube videos, I don't see how a person walking into a hospital and video documenting that it's empty even though the local media reported it to be overwhelmed is useless garbage.

Disinformation on one side is much more prevalent, harmful, and cynical. Essentially, one side of this debate does not exist without disinformation.

And unless their is some reason to trust the youtuber - a long, long history of scrupulous honesty, impeccable credentials, an attempt to minimize bias, something - unless they talk to numerous hospital employees, unless they visit the covid wing and the ICU (which they certainly don't), unless they visit repeatedly over time, unless they have some accurate idea of how the hospital operates when not burdened with covid - its useless theatrics relying on the willing gullibility of the viewer.

 

[GoofGoof]

There isn't enough of a track record, with far too many variables, to utilize any such models as projections for what will happen here.
UK -- You can't make any conclusions, as cases are rising back up.

Israel, cases still rising. UK, rising again after a brief decline.

The only country that appears "concluded" with their Delta arc is India, but their reporting has been so problematic that you can't draw any conclusions.

Ok so then there’s nothing to conclude that cases won’t drop down again either. It works both ways

 

[GoofGoof]

Is it time to swallow that the predictions have been pretty accurate since the start???

the severity is a range and the exact data falls on the plot…but they’ve been pretty good about the trends.

even if people wise the hell up and start pounding vaccines again (why that didn’t happen 3-4 weeks ago is beyond common sense)…the curve is still a six week timeline to shakeout.

I agree. That’s what I’ve been saying. The narrative now is that because of a small uptick in cases in the UK we should conclude that our cases will continue to grow and not drop off. I am in full agreement that the historic info is the best info we have and the arcs have all been roughly 3 months.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I agree. That’s what I’ve been saying. The narrative now is that because of a small uptick in cases in the UK we should conclude that our cases will continue to grow and not drop off. I am in full agreement that the historic info is the best info we have and the arcs have all been roughly 3 months.

The problem?
Certain people/outlets have been saying “India went down…UK went down” as an excuse to do whatever we god damn wanted (Merican way)…and that’s a reason why we wasted a month.

remember when Israel was held up as a vaccine cure all? That was used as an assumption enough people would do it…so ima gonna do a whata I want…

did it work?

 

[awoogala]

India had much less vaccination than the US and the cases went up and then came down. Pretty standard arc. I have no idea when that will happen here but I’m not sure how people are confident cases just won’t go back down again. It defies the way this virus has spread since the beginning. It’s possible that we will see cases drop in some areas that ramped up sooner like FL but cases still increasing in areas that were behind ramping up. That’s a timing difference regionally.

India has purported terrible accuracy for their reports:
"Drawing death data from civil registries and other sources, the report came up with three estimates for undercounts. The conclusion is that between 3.4 and 4.7 million more people died in that pandemic period than would have been predicted. That's up to 10 times higher than the Indian government's official death toll of 414,482."
"In the western state of Gujarat, local media tracked 689 bodies that were cremated or buried under COVID-19 protocols in one day in mid-April. But just over a 10th of those deaths made it to the government's tally: The official death toll that day was 78. Such discrepancies were being reported in several states."
I would take any counts in India with a grain of salt.

 

[wdisney9000]

Disinformation on one side is much more prevalent, harmful, and cynical. Essentially, one side of this debate does not exist without disinformation.

And unless their is some reason to trust the youtuber - a long, long history of scrupulous honesty, impeccable credentials, an attempt to minimize bias, something - unless they talk to numerous hospital employees, unless they visit the covid wing and the ICU (which they certainly don't), unless they visit repeatedly over time, unless they have some accurate idea of how the hospital operates when not burdened with covid - its useless theatrics relying on the willing gullibility of the viewer.

Your viewpoint is extremely narrow-minded. You're essentially saying that one side of the debate is completely lying and the other is not. If you won't realize that there is disinformation on both sides of the coin then there's nothing more to discuss.

And you speak of trusting media reports with impeccable credentials and honesty yet show me any of the major media outlets that can provide that with longevity.

I'm not referring to random YouTubers trying to gain likes or views. These are objective people with a diverse audience and no agenda at hand. Just seeking truth. But that doesn't fit your narrative of "it only ends with mandates".

You think you've got it all figured out. Hint* ..... none of us do. And anybody who acts like they do is only lying to themselves and others.

 

[SamusAranX]

Psst... Hospitalizations and deaths are increasing. Fortunately, deaths aren't increasing to the same degree they did with prior surges. But deaths are definitely surging.

And we don't have any "highly vaccinated areas" depending on the definition -- Based on the R0 of delta, "highly vaccinated" would be about 90% of population having fully completed their series. Such figures will be impossible until the vaccine is authorized for children. Even then, we aren't close to 90% of adults fully vaccinated anywhere. In our "best" regions, we are around 70-75% of adults fully vaxed. Even that is very low, when looking at what we need for delta.

Iceland is at 93 percent 16+ and cases are “rising”. That’s to be expected.

but how high are the deaths and hospitalizations rising? Are they stressing the health care system? Are all deaths unacceptable, or is there a minimum level that society will have to live with?

without clear concrete goals or acceptable thresholds, there will never be achievable milestones that can allow us to determine when to dial up or down restrictions in a society or area that has hit majority vaccinated in eligible populations

 

[Casper Gutman]

Your viewpoint is extremely narrow-minded. You're essentially saying that one side of the debate is completely lying and the other is not. If you won't realize that there is disinformation on both sides of the coin then there's nothing more to discuss.

And you speak of trusting media reports with impeccable credentials and honesty yet show me any of the major media outlets that can provide that with longevity.

I'm not referring to random YouTubers trying to gain likes or views. These are objective people with a diverse audience and no agenda at hand. Just seeking truth. But that doesn't fit your narrative of "it only ends with mandates".

You think you've got it all figured out. Hint* ..... none of us do. And anybody who acts like they do is only lying to themselves and others.

On most issues there are two or more valid sides, but not on all issues. For instance, an issue like "should I drive my monster truck through the nunnery" only has one valid side. The pandemic is one such issue. The valid side is the one that says we should take the safe, effective vaccine rather then let thousands die and the economy flounder because we are very angry about unrelated issues or get our information from facebook.

And yes, there is disinformation on both sides. On one side it is periodic but worrisome bubbles of sensationalism or confusion, on the other it is a flood of lies that gives life to deadly misconceptions. Trying to equate the two is a little trick people play when they sense their own position is in the wrong but don't have the courage to admit it or when bad faith individuals want to confuse an issue so horribly that people give up on the hope of finding any kind of truth. One of the most popular manifestations is, "Well, the mainstream media, which is biased like all humans but still bound by some sense of journalistic ethics and professionalism, sometimes gets elements of a story wrong, so we might as well trust this bearded guy with sunglasses on youtube or this pundit who makes his money by stoking the rage of his audience with lies."

Maybe I am wrong. Show me the "objective people with a diverse audience and no agenda at hand" on youtube. Provide a link.

 

[Disney Experience]

Third shot Pfizer side effects seem to be same as second shot. (Israel self reporting data , not study data )

Israeli survey finds 3rd Pfizer vaccine dose has similar side effects to 2nd

Most people who received a third dose of Pfizer Inc's COVID-19 vaccine felt similar or fewer side effects than they did after receiving the second shot, according to an initial survey in Israel.

www.reuters.com

 

[Disney Experience]

Pfizer vs Moderna: ( Moderna from the studies referenced is better vs Delta than Pfizer )

Moderna may be superior to Pfizer against Delta; breakthrough odds rise with time

The following is a roundup of some of the latest scientific studies on the novel coronavirus and efforts to find treatments and vaccines for COVID-19.

www.reuters.com

 

[Heelz2315]

A bit too early to say it has peaked in Orange County, but at least it's downward over the weekend (including positivity rate which was at 20.83%)

Although it is important to call out the 99.5% of cases over the last 3 days being unvaccinated.

what was the rolling positivity rate Dennings wanted before to drop masks? 5% for a week? Wonder if he’ll remove them if/when the case numbers drop?

I don’t think the CDC will say anything else. It’ll all be left up to local officials

 

[havoc315]

Ok so then there’s nothing to conclude that cases won’t drop down again either. It works both ways

Correct, that’s what I said.

 

[havoc315]

Iceland is at 93 percent 16+ and cases are “rising”. That’s to be expected.

but how high are the deaths and hospitalizations rising? Are they stressing the health care system? Are all deaths unacceptable, or is there a minimum level that society will have to live with?

without clear concrete goals or acceptable thresholds, there will never be achievable milestones that can allow us to determine when to dial up or down restrictions in a society or area that has hit majority vaccinated in eligible populations

Rising yes. But still extraordinarily low. They are still averaging zero deaths. So yes, I can live with the same results as Iceland.

 

[RobbinsDad]

Your viewpoint is extremely narrow-minded. You're essentially saying that one side of the debate is completely lying and the other is not. If you won't realize that there is disinformation on both sides of the coin then there's nothing more to discuss.

And you speak of trusting media reports with impeccable credentials and honesty yet show me any of the major media outlets that can provide that with longevity.

I'm not referring to random YouTubers trying to gain likes or views. These are objective people with a diverse audience and no agenda at hand. Just seeking truth. But that doesn't fit your narrative of "it only ends with mandates".

You think you've got it all figured out. Hint* ..... none of us do. And anybody who acts like they do is only lying to themselves and others.

 

[Timmay]

Disinformation on one side is much more prevalent, harmful, and cynical. Essentially, one side of this debate does not exist without disinformation.

And unless their is some reason to trust the youtuber - a long, long history of scrupulous honesty, impeccable credentials, an attempt to minimize bias, something - unless they talk to numerous hospital employees, unless they visit the covid wing and the ICU (which they certainly don't), unless they visit repeatedly over time, unless they have some accurate idea of how the hospital operates when not burdened with covid - its useless theatrics relying on the willing gullibility of the viewer.

This is completely anecdotal and isn’t really particularly data driven, so take it for what it’s worth. I also apologize for a needed preamble…

I work for a company that has healthcare clients from Hawaii to the east coast, including Texas and Florida, about 210 total count. We didn’t turn a wheel for almost a year beginning in March 2020 visiting clients. We got back to it early this year. The vast majority of our work is done on the floors, or units, in hospitals including ICU’s and emergency departments. We also schedule a minimum of six weeks out with no minimum time for cancellation.

Ive been on the road every week since the first week in June. Not one cancellation (I’m desperately hoping for some…I’m tired). We are also continuing too book work weekly. Again, I admit, this is purely anecdotal and doesn’t offer a complete picture. It is however interesting to us.

 

[Casper Gutman]

This is completely anecdotal and isn’t really particularly data driven, so take it for what it’s worth. I also apologize for a needed preamble…

I work for a company that has healthcare clients from Hawaii to the east coast, including Texas and Florida, about 210 total count. We didn’t turn a wheel for almost a year beginning in March 2020 visiting clients. We got back to it early this year. The vast majority of our work is done on the floors, or units, in hospitals including ICU’s and emergency departments. We also schedule a minimum of six weeks out with no minimum time for cancellation.

Ive been on the road every week since the first week in June. Not one cancellation (I’m desperately hoping for some…I’m tired). We are also continuing too book work weekly. Again, I admit, this is purely anecdotal and doesn’t offer a complete picture. It is however interesting to us.

In what area of the country have you been busiest? Have you done a lot of work in Texas and Florida over the last several weeks?

What is your theory based on this anecdotal evidence? If your experience indicates that there is no hospitalization surge, no overflowing hospitals, who is lying? Every major media outlet? There isn't an outcry from Doctors that the media is lying, so is the medical establishment complicit? How many docs and nurses are pushing fake numbers? Presumably, the CDC would also be implicated? Who organized the conspiracy? To what end? How many people are involved? It would have to be at least several hundred, right?

 

[dreday3]

Pfizer vs Moderna: ( Moderna from the studies referenced is better vs Delta than Pfizer )

Moderna may be superior to Pfizer against Delta; breakthrough odds rise with time

The following is a roundup of some of the latest scientific studies on the novel coronavirus and efforts to find treatments and vaccines for COVID-19.

www.reuters.com

ka-ching!!!

Stand behind me guys, I've gotten Moderna, I'll protect us!

 

[Flugell]

There isn't enough of a track record, with far too many variables, to utilize any such models as projections for what will happen here.
UK -- You can't make any conclusions, as cases are rising back up.

Israel, cases still rising. UK, rising again after a brief decline.

The only country that appears "concluded" with their Delta arc is India, but their reporting has been so problematic that you can't draw any conclusions.

Sorry but the cases today (Monday) are listed as lower than yesterday

UK records 25,161 Covid cases and 37 deaths

As many as 25,161 new coronavirus daily cases have been reported on Monday.

www.standard.co.uk

Not familiar with the paper but newest figures I could find.