Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[carolina_yankee]

OK. So I ask again, if they reduce transmission then why am I being told by the CDC that I should be wearing a mask when I am fully vaccinated?

I actually think it's a good question. My lay understanding is because they have found that with the Delta variant, the vaccinated can still have a high enough viral load, even without symptoms, or with symptoms that may not be recognized as COVID, to be able to spread the virus.

While those who are vaccinated are indeed at very minimal risk of serious illness or even illness, particularly in groups where all or most are vaccinated, there is still the concern for the unvaccinated. Thus, the mask guidance for indoor public spaces. While I share your frustration with those who have chosen to not be vaccinated, getting vaccinated is still not a choice for everybody (especially for the ineligible, as well as the eligible who need parental consent).

Quit frankly, IMO, the numbers speak for themselves. Especially in Florida. They are horrific. Hosptials are filling up. Elective surgeries are being canceled or close to being canceled - and nationwide, deaths are, in fact, increasing. Yesterday's number was in the 400s. That will increase since it is a lagging indicator, and there is no indication we are near our peak in this wave.

For those citing other countries, "Past performance is not a predictor of future returns." This thing changes, and each country has different circumstances and mitigation tools. We also don't understand the long-term effects of this disease so even if a demographic is not at high risk of hospitalization nor death, it doesn't mean they won't have other problems.

What if the CDC had this information, sat on it, and cases exploded, people died, and then we discovered if we had just masked up, it could have been mitigated? How would people love the CDC then? They have no choice but to share the best of their understanding, and as the experts, make recommendations based on the information they have.

Bottom line: We are going to have to accept that we are not going back to the way things were. We are in a new world now and we have to learn how to live in this world as safely and productively as we can. Everything changed. 2019 isn't coming back. It doesn't mean we won't have a joyful, flourishing future, but we are going to have to learn and adapt in order to do so.

 

[DisneyCane]

A lot of people want vaccines to be something that individuals get to protect themselves, so that it's an individual choice. This is the lens that they view everything with. "If the vaccines work, why do you care what I do?" / etc. This is the case in many countries but is really prominent in our divided country with a libertarian streak.

The fact is, vaccines really work on a community level. You'd be better off being unvaccinated for measles in an area where everyone else is vaccinated than being vaccinated for measles in an area where everyone else is infected. I'm afraid it's just not true that vaccinated people are totally in the clear now (although thank goodness the vaccines are as effective as they are).

Vaccines are a community solution, not an individual one. Which explains why we're in so much trouble, since we are apparently not good at operating as a community. Not a shock I guess but even worse than many people expected.

That isn't really true if the vaccines don't prevent transmission or significantly reduce it.

 

[Heppenheimer]

It absolutely is a real distinction. You can have covid with no symptoms. What if they only have the sniffles but are in because of a broken leg or a heart attack? Who knows? The data needs to be more specific.

There is no way to determine if an MI was or wasn't acutely triggered by COVID if a patient tests positive in the nice way you think it should, but the combination of the two at once being unrelated seems extremely unlikely. Even the one famous case of an MVA that was counted as a COVID case legitimately had a severe illness from the disease. He was actually driving to hospital while severely ill and was injured in the resulting accident.

Hospitals are filling up with something right now far beyond what is typical for this time of year, and it sure has heck isn't broken legs. Now that elective procedures have been canceled in many hospitals, there's probably even less orthopedic cases overall at present.

 

[KrzyKtty]

There is no way to determine if an MI was or wasn't acutely triggered by COVID if a patient tests positive in the nice way you think it should, but the combination of the two at once being unrelated seems extremely unlikely. Even the one famous case of an MVA that was counted as a COVID case legitimately had a severe case. He was actually driving to hospital while severely ill and was injured in the resulting accident.

Hospitals are filling up with something right now far beyond what is typical right now for this time of year, and it sure has heck isn't broken legs.

May I also point out that people are rarely checked into the hospital for broken bones. Possibly a compound fracture that needs surgery to fix, the most broken legs will be seen as outpatients and therefore not come in on the charts.

Other sorts of distinctions are harder to draw the line like the person above says. Say you're checked in for a heart attack, and also you have covid. There's no easy way for the medical professionals to determine that you didn't have the heart attack due to the virus. Well it is true that you would have had underlying heart conditions, the tipping point might have been the respiratory problems and other underlying symptoms brought on by the virus. That's part of the reason why they don't have the distinctions I would think??

 

[rk03221]

However, as India and the UK (so far) illustrate, it doesn't appear that herd immunity is necessary to end spikes/waves.

The difference being vaccinated people will basically get a cold from covid, the un vaccinated could end up in the hospital

 

[James J]

Just to post about the UK for a second as I know there is interest - after cases were falling they are now steadily creeping back up.

On July 27th we were at 23,511 new cases, on the 28th it was 27,734 and today it's 31,117. The figures are starting to reflect mitigations and social distancing measures being dropped.

We also saw the highest number of daily deaths since March on the 27th, which was 131. This has come down slightly to 91 and 85 over the last two days.

Hospitalisations are up 21% over the last 7 days, although are still relatively low compared to the last peak.

 

[Angel Ariel]

OK. So I ask again, if they reduce transmission then why am I being told by the CDC that I should be wearing a mask when I am fully vaccinated?

Because reducing transmission doesn’t equal eliminating transmission, and with the large numbers of people still not even eligible to be vaccinated, the reduction of transmission is still important to slow/stop the evolution of new variants that could possibly evade the vaccine before all have the opportunity to be vaccinated.

 

[Touchdown]

It’s not lying. If the only reason was transmission from vaccinated people it would be nationally not in high spread areas. It’s obvious that the real reason is spread is too high in some areas. You wearing a mask does nothing to stop that, but everyone wearing a mask in public can help because “everyone” includes the unvaccinated. It’s not about you it’s about the group.

Not you too, why is it that no one is willing to take the CDC at their word? If it was about making unvaccinated wear masks because cases were increasing do you really think they would have waited as long as they did? Not to mention, cases are increasing nationwide, if this was their goal dont you think it would have rolled out nationwide?

Please stop with the conspiracy this is something else, continuing to broadcast this reinforces the idea the CDC is lying about the pandemic and vaccines.

 

[mmascari]

Perhaps there ends up being a day or two at the peak that reaches that level but every single outbreak wave has burned out after a period of time. Even with no change in mitigation after the wave begins the cases don't just keep increasing endlessly and they don't infect all eligible hosts. I have no idea why they work that way but for each wave/spike it doesn't appear that anything close to herd immunity is required for it to subside. Not reaching herd immunity just keeps the door open for future waves/spikes.

This is really "Even with no change in mandated mitigation", but that's not the same as how people behave. In general, they see changes in their environment and they change their actions. Having mandated mitigations gets everyone moving in the same direction better is all. But, it's not about the mandates, it's about the behaviors. It's never everyone or everyone on the same schedule.

These things don't just end after XX time in an absolute way. It's all connected. We could totally make an effort as a community to do nothing because the wave will just end after XX time and then the time is extended instead.

 

[DCBaker]

New data for Orange County and breakthrough cases from the OC Department of Health -

 

[Heppenheimer]

May I also point out that people are rarely checked into the hospital for broken bones. Possibly a compound fracture that needs surgery to fix, the most broken legs will be seen as outpatients and therefore not come in on the charts.

Other sorts of distinctions are harder to draw the line like the person above says. Say you're checked in for a heart attack, and also you have covid. There's no easy way for the medical professionals to determine that you didn't have the heart attack due to the virus. Well it is true that you would have had underlying heart conditions, the tipping point might have been the respiratory problems and other underlying symptoms brought on by the virus. That's part of the reason why they don't have the distinctions I would think??

It's a completely artificial distinction, only brought up by non-medical workers or politicians with agendas who want to believe that COVID numbers aren't as bad as they appear.

 

[danlb_2000]

Because reducing transmission doesn’t equal eliminating transmission, and with the large numbers of people still not even eligible to be vaccinated, the reduction of transmission is still important to slow/stop the evolution of new variants that could possibly evade the vaccine before all have the opportunity to be vaccinated.

It all comes back to the measure of the virus's R-naught, the number of people, on average, that an infected person will infect. If the R-naught is under 1 the virus will eventually die out, the further under 1 it is, the faster this will happen.

 

[AEfx]

Not you too, why is it that no one is willing to take the CDC at their word?

Because some people realize that the CDC's job is not to "deliver the newest, best information" to us, but to make statements and policies in any attempt to Control (the 2nd C in CDC) what we think and believe to achieve their desired outcome.

They are just like any other PR marketing firm in that way.

 

[Virtual Toad]

It absolutely is a real distinction. You can have covid with no symptoms. What if they only have the sniffles but are in because of a broken leg or a heart attack? Who knows? The data needs to be more specific.

The hospital system is saying it because their beds are filling up again due to COVID. There is no reason for them to say it otherwise. Go ahead and believe there’s a sudden outbreak of broken legs if you’d like but the overwhelming preponderance of data on this in Central Florida should tell you and anyone else paying the least bit of attention that we have a significant problem on our hands here. Now as Americans, how do we respond? Bicker, whine and argue? Or maybe at least try to pull ourselves together and rally for the common good.

It’s so simple for all of us. Get the vaccine. Wear the mask. Stop whining. And start acting like an adult. Lead by example. And do what’s right for the greater good so we can all move on.

 

[Touchdown]

May I also point out that people are rarely checked into the hospital for broken bones. Possibly a compound fracture that needs surgery to fix, the most broken legs will be seen as outpatients and therefore not come in on the charts.

Other sorts of distinctions are harder to draw the line like the person above says. Say you're checked in for a heart attack, and also you have covid. There's no easy way for the medical professionals to determine that you didn't have the heart attack due to the virus. Well it is true that you would have had underlying heart conditions, the tipping point might have been the respiratory problems and other underlying symptoms brought on by the virus. That's part of the reason why they don't have the distinctions I would think??

Anyone who can’t walk and can’t navigate crutches and break their leg or pelvis (which is a vast majority of the over 65 crowd) will most certainly be admitted, surgery or not, because it’s not safe for them to go home. Seeing as their osteoporodic bones make them more likely to fracture, old people make up a majority of broken bones.

 

[mmascari]

Well I guess the whole “it will disappear” nonsense can now be put to bed.

Right? What will they come up with next?

It will disappear eventually. That's never been a question. It's a question of the cost in illness and death to get there, along with the timeframe.

The nonsense was that those could both be short based on our current actions. We seem to be trying to make both of those as large as possible.

Yeah..... Really don't see that happening.

Edit.. And I don't say that to be a snarky witch. I genuinely genuinely do not see how that will be possible. I mean look around us.

Sales of "I'm with stupid" shirts should be booming.

Can we exile all who refuse the vaccine to their own island? Asking for a friend

We'll get them all shirts as a free prize for going to the island. Who doesn't love a free shirt.

 

[ImperfectPixie]

Because some people realize that the CDC's job is not to "deliver the newest, best information" to us, but to make statements and policies in any attempt to Control (the 2nd C in CDC) what we think and believe to achieve their desired outcome.

They are just like any other PR marketing firm in that way.

I really hope you're kidding here...

 

[Touchdown]

Because some people realize that the CDC's job is not to "deliver the newest, best information" to us, but to make statements and policies in any attempt to Control (the 2nd C in CDC) what we think and believe to achieve their desired outcome.

They are just like any other PR marketing firm in that way.

Thank God the lizard people know best then, I’m so frustrated everyone in this country believes in some rediculous conspiracy.

 

[DisneyCane]

New data for Orange County and breakthrough cases from the OC Department of Health -

Those numbers really justify why fully vaccinated people should be wearing a mask! I'm glad they released them to put the debate to bed.

 

[mmascari]

OK. So I ask again, if they reduce transmission then why am I being told by the CDC that I should be wearing a mask when I am fully vaccinated?

You're looking for a light switch, two values. But, it's not that.

Because reduce does not mean stop.

It's this.

That isn't really true if the vaccines don't prevent transmission or significantly reduce it.

And they do reduce, significantly. But, we're back at that a vaccine works best when it has very little work to do. It's not the light switch, not the forcefield, it's a reduction. Create a large enough number of events, and even a reduction is going to have a large absolute number slip through. Have 10 exposures of enough virus to infect you and 0.2 slip through, well below 1, you're fine. Have 100 exposures of enough virus to infect you and 2 slip through, maybe you're fine maybe you have a mild case. Have 10,000 exposures of enough virus to infect you and 200 slip through, your odds are way down now. Even if we then say that retransmission is super low (which clearly it is), lets say 1% for easy math. Then 1% of 0.2 is .002, of 2 is .02, of 200 is 2. So, if we let the pool of exposures get large enough, the absolute number of passing it on that happens will have a larger effect.

Those numbers really justify why fully vaccinated people should be wearing a mask! I'm glad they released them to put the debate to bed.

That they want to reduce the number of exposures now while it's a relatively low number instead of wait until it's out of control and try to clean up after the fact when it's much harder? Glad you finally agree.

It's way harder to clean up the mess than to prevent it in the first place. That should be amazingly obvious after the last 2 years.