Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[GoofGoof]

Just remember that the study in Israel was based on flawed data. Some of the people involved already came out and said conclusions should not be drawn based on the data from that study. If further studies are done and if they conclude the vaccines don’t last very long (we are talking less than 6 months) we can always start up boosters. Since it’s highly unlikely we get everyone with 2 shots to take a 3rd one this would be a devastating blow to the vaccine effort, but it is what it is.

Any hope of reaching herd immunity would be completely off the table as natural infection immunity wouldn't even last 6 months either. The interesting part is we are not seeing any evidence of mass reinfections or breakthrough infections among the vaccinated here in the US. If immunity really lasts less than 6 months as suggested then anyone infected before February would be vulnerable to reinfection. There were 27M Americans who tested positive prior to February. It’s unlikely that they all also got vaccinated so there have to be millions of Americans who were naturally infected and unvaccinated out there. I would think by now we would have started hearing lots of stories on reinfection from that group. In addition many of our medical professionals and also many residents of nursing homes were vaccinated in Jan and Feb so we should be seeing a large uptick in breakthrough infections among those groups as well. Something doesn’t add up.

 

[DisneyCane]

Just remember that the study in Israel was based on flawed data. Some of the people involved already came out and said conclusions should not be drawn based on the data from that study. If further studies are done and if they conclude the vaccines don’t last very long (we are talking less than 6 months) we can always start up boosters. Since it’s highly unlikely we get everyone with 2 shots to take a 3rd one this would be a devastating blow to the vaccine effort, but it is what it is.

Any hope of reaching herd immunity would be completely off the table as natural infection immunity wouldn't even last 6 months either. The interesting part is we are not seeing any evidence of mass reinfections or breakthrough infections among the vaccinated here in the US. If immunity really lasts less than 6 months as suggested then anyone infected before February would be vulnerable to reinfection. There were 27M Americans who tested positive prior to February. It’s unlikely that they all also got vaccinated so there have to be millions of Americans who were naturally infected and unvaccinated out there. I would think by now we would have started hearing lots of stories on reinfection from that group. In addition many of our medical professionals and also many residents of nursing homes were vaccinated in Jan and Feb so we should be seeing a large uptick in breakthrough infections among those groups as well. Something doesn’t add up.

According to the latest CDC data, out of 161+ million fully vaccinated there have been 849 COVID caused deaths and 4,080 COVID caused hospitalizations. Since the earliest vaccinated were the most vulnerable to serious illness, it doesn't seem like protection is wearing off rapidly.

Something seems very wrong with this study out of Israel as it doesn't jibe with data from anywhere else.

 

[hopemax]

Most were over reported times. However, SM was all of 60 minutes. It’s just weird that the physical lines are that long when they are not social distancing. I’m not complaining. I’m just curious. We lucked out. The first 6 days of our trip were very enjoyable. The lines were super short and the waits were not bad. However, the last three were almost unbearable.

When there is no Fastpass, and everyone has to go through standby it takes more physical space. If an attraction has an hour long queue, and is 2000 pph, then you would see how long a line really is with 2000 people. If Fastpass was there, 80% or 1600 of those people would arrive in small chunks, in 5 minute windows, and the standby queue would have the other 400 people. 400 people takes up a lot less physical space than 2000.

 

[danlb_2000]

This is the only thing that (slightly) concerns me about going to Disney in October. I was fully vaccinated (2 weeks after second dose) at the end of Feb. Everyone else I'm going with was fully vaccinated in April.

I want a booster. Can I pretend I wasn't vaccinated and go get another shot?

You easily could, but it would not be advisable.

 

[GoofGoof]

When there is no Fastpass, and everyone has to go through standby it takes more physical space. If an attraction has an hour long queue, and is 2000 pph, then you would see how long a line really is with 2000 people. If Fastpass was there, 80% or 1600 of those people would arrive in small chunks, in 5 minute windows, and the standby queue would have the other 400 people. 400 people takes up a lot less physical space than 2000.

This is true. I remember when Splash Mountain first opened a 60 minute wait wound through all those queue lines before entering the building but the line pretty much constantly moved. Once FP had arrived the same 60 minute wait used less than half the switchbacks but the line stalled a lot as FP people were pushed through usually without much of a stop.

 

[danlb_2000]

Just remember that the study in Israel was based on flawed data. Some of the people involved already came out and said conclusions should not be drawn based on the data from that study. If further studies are done and if they conclude the vaccines don’t last very long (we are talking less than 6 months) we can always start up boosters. Since it’s highly unlikely we get everyone with 2 shots to take a 3rd one this would be a devastating blow to the vaccine effort, but it is what it is.

Any hope of reaching herd immunity would be completely off the table as natural infection immunity wouldn't even last 6 months either. The interesting part is we are not seeing any evidence of mass reinfections or breakthrough infections among the vaccinated here in the US. If immunity really lasts less than 6 months as suggested then anyone infected before February would be vulnerable to reinfection. There were 27M Americans who tested positive prior to February. It’s unlikely that they all also got vaccinated so there have to be millions of Americans who were naturally infected and unvaccinated out there. I would think by now we would have started hearing lots of stories on reinfection from that group. In addition many of our medical professionals and also many residents of nursing homes were vaccinated in Jan and Feb so we should be seeing a large uptick in breakthrough infections among those groups as well. Something doesn’t add up.

The CDC is only focusing on breakthrough cases that lead to hospitalizations, so we could be undercounting the ones that don't, which is where the drop off in the Israel data is. Israel's data still shows strong protection against severe illness and hospitalization.

 

[hopemax]

HMO: Early vaccinees are twice as likely to catch COVID as later recipients | The Times of Israel

www.timesofisrael.com

These Israeli studies,

Any idea why they don’t seem to line up with data elsewhere?

What does everyone here make of this?

I suspect it’s a combination of things. I know everyone is eager to reject it, but I think it told us things we should pay attention to. My not a doctor guesses...

A. Delta works fast. Faster than it takes for the T-cells to hop into action. So if your neutralizing antibodies aren’t in the fight and have waned over time, a large amount of virus replicates. Enough for people to test positive. Enough for people to be symptomatic.

However, if your T-cells still do their thing, and fight it off without you getting seriously ill... This is still fine, but the messaging about what you can expect now that you’re vaccinated will need to change.

Against severe illness the Israel studies still show high numbers. It’s against any infection that it’s an issue. And that number we aren’t even tracking. So of course we are blind to it.

B. People with immunodeficiencies, whether due to age or conditions probably need boosters to replenish their neutralizing antibodies because their bodies might not get those T-cells into action well enough to fight off more serious infection.

I think this is telling us things about the differences between reliance primarily of T-cell and B-cells vs still having the NAbs in your blood, and the speed and intensity of Delta.

I think we haven’t seen those numbers here because a bunch of people only got vaccinated in April or later, and still have higher levels of NAbs. And we are still a little early in Delta’s wave. However, I did start seeing that since a large percentage of care workers are unvaccinated some care homes are starting to see outbreaks in their facilities again. Of course, states have given up tracking those when everything improved. Anyway, give us time and I think we’ll start seeing some of the same things of infections in older people too.

This still means Delta is a son of a ... and you would rather have those T-cells, B-cells and NAbs via being vaccinated, even if they are a little slow vs not having them at all (unvaccinated).

 

[Heelz2315]

There's growing conversation and mounting pressure from the White House and the former Surgeon General (this morning) calling for the CDC to change their guidance, or at least clarify to "if you're fully vaccinated and you're around someone you don't know you should wear a mask"

From what I have seen and heard from the CDC fully vaccinated people have a great chance of not contracting and not spreading Covid.

Why the call to change the guidance? Case numbers of the unvaccinated? And do you think the CDC will change their guidance? Talk about muddying the waters if they did. Alot of confusing messages if they walked that back within two months.

My worry is the CDC changes, Disney will change. And I've got a trip on 8/11 and do not want to wear a mask. I'd hate to cancel at the last minute. (full disclosure I'm fully vaxxed as well as everyone else in my party)

 

[jlhwdw]

I don't think Disney can change unless DeSantis changes As far as I know, the state of Florida still says that you can not require masks in any situation.

 

[Trauma]

I don't think Disney can change unless DeSantis changes As far as I know, the state of Florida still says that you can not require masks in any situation.

Disney can change whatever they want.

They won’t unless forced.

They don’t need that cancellations.

 

[DCBaker]

I don't think Disney can change unless DeSantis changes As far as I know, the state of Florida still says that you can not require masks in any situation.

That is incorrect. You may be thinking of local/county mandates, a private business can impose a mask requirement.

 

[Virtual Toad]

There's growing conversation and mounting pressure from the White House and the former Surgeon General (this morning) calling for the CDC to change their guidance, or at least clarify to "if you're fully vaccinated and you're around someone you don't know you should wear a mask"

From what I have seen and heard from the CDC fully vaccinated people have a great chance of not contracting and not spreading Covid.

Why the call to change the guidance? Case numbers of the unvaccinated? And do you think the CDC will change their guidance? Talk about muddying the waters if they did. Alot of confusing messages if they walked that back within two months.

My worry is the CDC changes, Disney will change. And I've got a trip on 8/11 and do not want to wear a mask. I'd hate to cancel at the last minute. (full disclosure I'm fully vaxxed as well as everyone else in my party)

We were supposed to spend a week at Universal starting 8/1 but thanks to the idiots that now occupy the h—-hole we call Florida we are most likely cancelling. Someone earlier asked what was going on here- is everyone pretending that it’s over? The answer is a resounding yes. I am so sick of what our state has become. So many absolute idiots with no concern for anyone other than themselves.

 

[DisneyCane]

There's growing conversation and mounting pressure from the White House and the former Surgeon General (this morning) calling for the CDC to change their guidance, or at least clarify to "if you're fully vaccinated and you're around someone you don't know you should wear a mask"

From what I have seen and heard from the CDC fully vaccinated people have a great chance of not contracting and not spreading Covid.

Why the call to change the guidance? Case numbers of the unvaccinated? And do you think the CDC will change their guidance? Talk about muddying the waters if they did. Alot of confusing messages if they walked that back within two months.

My worry is the CDC changes, Disney will change. And I've got a trip on 8/11 and do not want to wear a mask. I'd hate to cancel at the last minute. (full disclosure I'm fully vaxxed as well as everyone else in my party)

Regardless of new information or situation that may lead to a change in guidance, if the CDC reverses course so soon, it will make them look (to the general public) like a bunch of bumbling idiots who don't know what they are doing.

I'm with you that if Disney goes back to masks required at WDW, I'm not going and will likely contact them to cancel the rest of my annual pass and give me a pro-rated refund. I enjoyed masked Disney when the crowds were low and there was practically no wait for anything. Then it was worth the trade-off. With current crowds, it isn't.

Like you, my party is fully vaccinated. I got vaccinated as soon as I possibly could for the following reasons (in order):

1) Minimize my chance of losing my sense of taste and smell
2) Stop having to wear an annoying mask
3) Minimize the chance of getting sick

As a healthy person under 50, my risk of hospitalization and death was very low to begin with so weren't a big part of the motivation.

 

[DisneyCane]

I don't think Disney can change unless DeSantis changes As far as I know, the state of Florida still says that you can not require masks in any situation.

That is incorrect. You may be thinking of local/county mandates, a private business can impose a mask requirement.

In fact, the law specifically states that businesses aren't prevented from implementing health and safety protocols as long as they don't require proof of vaccination for service.

 

[DisneyCane]

We were supposed to spend a week at Universal starting 8/1 but thanks to the idiots that now occupy the h—-hole we call Florida we are most likely cancelling. Someone earlier asked what was going on here- is everyone pretending that it’s over? The answer is a resounding yes. I am so sick of what our state has become. So many absolute idiots with no concern for anyone other than themselves.

Although FL spiked up very quickly, it isn't like it is the only state where cases are rapidly increasing. In fact, CA has around 6 times the cases now as it did on 6/1. FL hasn't reached 6 times 6/1 yet.

I wouldn't be surprised to see both states end up at the same level per 100k at the peak but see FL reach the peak more quickly. The CA seven day average per 100k puts it over the 10 per 100k per day that the northeast alliance had set last year for people traveling from a state not to be required to isolate upon arrival.

Other than the LA County mask mandate returning, which may or may not be doing anything, I am not aware with any state bringing back restrictions.

If you don't feel "safe" going to Universal then don't go to Universal. Same for WDW.

 

[correcaminos]

I should have been clearer: I was referring to his personal religiosity. That said, I do wish the church’s founder had actually encouraged vaccination after this tragic death. I find his statement to the media a little too noncommittal, though perhaps I’m being unfair:

“While many of our staff, leadership and congregation have already received the COVID-19 vaccine, we recognize this is a personal decision for each individual to make with the counsel of medical professionals,"

I guess I don't see the statement being bad coming as a church statement in terms of tax/non profit etc. Most at least attempt not to do partisan talk, which vaccines can be seen that way, since they are required to be non-partisan.

Even my church was vague today when talking pandemic and what we can do to help.

 

[Trauma]

Although FL spiked up very quickly, it isn't like it is the only state where cases are rapidly increasing. In fact, CA has around 6 times the cases now as it did on 6/1. FL hasn't reached 6 times 6/1 yet.

I wouldn't be surprised to see both states end up at the same level per 100k at the peak but see FL reach the peak more quickly. The CA seven day average per 100k puts it over the 10 per 100k per day that the northeast alliance had set last year for people traveling from a state not to be required to isolate upon arrival.

Other than the LA County mask mandate returning, which may or may not be doing anything, I am not aware with any state bringing back restrictions.

If you don't feel "safe" going to Universal then don't go to Universal. Same for WDW.

I’m sure the LA county mask mandate will do nothing.

That won’t stop them from hyperventilating about how we need to back everywhere.

 

[Virtual Toad]

Although FL spiked up very quickly, it isn't like it is the only state where cases are rapidly increasing. In fact, CA has around 6 times the cases now as it did on 6/1. FL hasn't reached 6 times 6/1 yet.

I wouldn't be surprised to see both states end up at the same level per 100k at the peak but see FL reach the peak more quickly. The CA seven day average per 100k puts it over the 10 per 100k per day that the northeast alliance had set last year for people traveling from a state not to be required to isolate upon arrival.

Other than the LA County mask mandate returning, which may or may not be doing anything, I am not aware with any state bringing back restrictions.

If you don't feel "safe" going to Universal then don't go to Universal. Same for WDW.

Thanks for the advice.

 

[Trauma]

Thanks for the advice.

Toad if your entire family is vaccinated you have nothing to worry about.

You did your part go enjoy your life!

 

[LittleBuford]

I guess I don't see the statement being bad coming as a church statement in terms of tax/non profit etc. Most at least attempt not to do partisan talk, which vaccines can be seen that way, since they are required to be non-partisan.

Even my church was vague today when talking pandemic and what we can do to help.

It’s surprising to me that churches would treat vaccines as a partisan issue. I know that’s what they’ve become, but they never should have, and I wish religious leaders would do all that they could to depoliticise the topic.