Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[Heppenheimer]

We’re in a lot of agreement then on your stances I too would get rid of the 17th amendment and it’s not crazy. More can be taken to DM.

Where I disagree is the comparison to Polio. That’s false equivalency. The closer context would be if it was mandated that people need to get the flu vaccine.

Mileage will of course vary on that, but the point is polio=Covid isn’t equivalent.

I also get that people use that as a case for mass vaccination or even it being compelled/required. But that’s not what I’m pointing out. I’m pointing out one is far more deadly/debilitating than the other.

I'm not sure what point you're arguing (I can never tell with you, because you always reply "Not my point" when given information that appears to contradict your premise), but some basic numbers on polio would be helpful here.

90-95% of polio infections are asymptomatic. Less than 10% cause a mild viral illness that resolves without sequelae. (Note, different sources I'm using report different numbers here). About 0.1% of all cases of polio will result in meningitis, and if this spreads to the spinal cord, it causes the flaccid paralysis known as poliomyelitis (what most people actually mean when they colloquially say "polio"). Among those who develop poliomyelitis, the mortality rate is about 5-10%. So, at most, the case fatality rate from polio infection was about 0.01%. About 2/3 of the cases who develop flaccid paralysis never recover their full strength, so I estimate that means about a 0.06% case rate of permanent paralysis of varying degrees of severity, ranging from minor, regional muscle weakness to complete global paralysis requiring permanent ventilatory support (I suspect most who were fully paralyzed didn't stay alive very long, so the surviving numbers probably skew towards regional muscle paralysis).

Prior to vaccination, there were about 13,000-20,000 cases of poliomyelitis reported yearly in the US. The last case that developed from purely domestic sources was in 1979, and the last imported case was in 1993. Thanks to widespread vaccination, the polio virus is effectively eradicated from the US and all but certain countries in Africa and Asia.

So, once again, I'm not sure what your intention was with the statement "polio=Covid isn't equivalent", of which I agree. Based on the raw numbers alone, in any given year of polio's existence vs the 18-20 months COVID-19 has been with us, the latter has been much, much worse.

 

[mmascari]

As an aside, the FDA/CDC have both been frustratingly slow to either adopt the new guidance based on reality on the ground (in the case of the CDC) and giving certain approvals of the vaccines (in the case of the FDA), in my opinion of course.

Fun fact, one of the differences between EUA and the full approval is storage constraints and expiration. We talk about length of efficacy a lot as a difference and that you need real calendar time to occur to know the length. The same is true for storage.

Today, nobody cares if you can leave a vaccine in the freezer for a year before using it and that it will still work the same. If you have to store it super cold the whole time. We've already seen changes in how long you can store it just cold. Full approval needs all those things. Since eventually, we're going to be storing it for longer durations instead of just using it up as fast as possible.

Once it's fully approved, the FDA loses a lot of leverage for making changes after the fact. Sure, they can request after approval studies and adjustments, but companies could delay and procrastinate for years on those with very little the FDA could do at that point. Prior to approval, they have much more leverage by not approving being possible and ability to impose conditions.

So, for anyone waiting for full approval before getting vaccinated. Would knowing the long term storage constraints and effects impact your decision? Taking it now, none of those matter, it hasn't been stored that long. It's like a fresh fruit right now.

 

[Wendy Pleakley]

Canada will not open its border to non-essential, unvaccinated visitors for quite a while, Trudeau says | CNN

Days after Canada dropped its quarantine requirement for fully vaccinated Canadians entering the country, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau rejected the idea that non-essential unvaccinated visitors will soon be allowed in.

www.cnn.com

Disapointing news, I’m surprised Trudeau wants this to continue indefinitely for now. My understanding was this was getting quite unpopular with Canadians because of a loss of tourist dollars and this restricting Canadians from visiting us.

There was some grumbling after the most recent 30-day extension of the land border closure, but I think that was a vocal minority. I read somewhere that 2/3 of Canadians are okay with the restrictions as is, while the vaccination process plays out.

New infections, hospitalizations, and serious illness numbers are dropping rapidly in Canada so I think travel should open up fairly soon. Just for perspective, in British Columbia the numbers from June 8th compared to July 8th are below. COVID is getting to "manageable" territory.

59 new cases vs. 165 new cases.
74 people in hospital vs. 203.
19 people in intensive care vs. 57.

I feel it would be reasonable to open up the USA/Canada border to vaccinated travelers now. If it doesn't happen this month my guess would be August.

 

[Heppenheimer]

Remember that you will likely have to get a Coronavirus booster every year much like a flu shot. It likely will stick around much like the flu has, though obviously it's a 2-way street; variants will develop so the vaccine may not be as effective as it was (though, again the mRNA vaccines fixes a huge problem that faced the flu vaccine with all the variants of the flu), and also the human body will adapt and likely be better suited to fight more common strains of the coronavirus and we will likely have better treatment develop for those who do get it.

The flu still kills 300k+/year worldwide however (nowhere close to what this epidemic will have killed when it is all said and done, but still an enormous amount), so this will continue to be a problem for decades to come. It will become a part of normal life though and we will have to adapt, much like we have with the modern flu.

This has not been established yet, and the current evidence weighs towards "maybe not". We were posting about this question last week.

 

[MorphinePrince]

As a teacher, this is fantastic and welcomed news! One of the reasons I opted to teach virtually last school year was because I didn't want to wear a mask all day long; fortunately it looks like my board is going to vote against requiring them.

 

[correcaminos]

Remember that you will likely have to get a Coronavirus booster every year much like a flu shot. It likely will stick around much like the flu has, though obviously it's a 2-way street; variants will develop so the vaccine may not be as effective as it was (though, again the mRNA vaccines fixes a huge problem that faced the flu vaccine with all the variants of the flu), and also the human body will adapt and likely be better suited to fight more common strains of the coronavirus and we will likely have better treatment develop for those who do get it.

The flu still kills 300k+/year worldwide however (nowhere close to what this epidemic will have killed when it is all said and done, but still an enormous amount), so this will continue to be a problem for decades to come. It will become a part of normal life though and we will have to adapt, much like we have with the modern flu.

Please stop comparing to flu. The virus is different and the technology for vaccines is worlds apart. I will expect a booster when Pifzer personally calls me to tell me or asks me to amend my participation in the trial.

Knowing the FDA and CDC, I think that they probably need to see more data on trials before recommending timing for boosters. Since most everyone has only had the 2 dose immunity for at most 6 months or so, I think they likely want to see when the immunity starts wearing off, especially with new vaccine types. Obviously Pfizer has an angle as well, they want another profit generator, which I can't blame them for.
As an aside, the FDA/CDC have both been frustratingly slow to either adopt the new guidance based on reality on the ground (in the case of the CDC) and giving certain approvals of the vaccines (in the case of the FDA), in my opinion of course.

Trial people have been at it a year or almost at this point. While some are trying to use trends to claim things, the trials have far more time than a regular who got thejr shot in 2021.

Going for profit isn't unheard of, but globally they have a lot of shots to still sell.

 

[mmascari]

ENOUGH doom and gloom. None of the variants have rendered the vaccines ineffective. People who aren't vaccinated by choice do not concern me and shouldn't drive any public health decisions.

There's differences between not worrying about a variant breaking vaccines today, taking steps to minimize chances of that variant developing, and creating the conditions to encourage that variant to arise. The first two are in total agreement and not doom and gloom. The third is just reckless.

The poster you replied to indicated that they were fully vaccinated. Once you are fully vaccinated, there is no science based need to take any further measures since the vaccines are far more effective than any mitigation measure short of isolating/quarantining. It doesn't make somebody "smart" to do something unnecessary. Is it smart if I wash my hands for five minutes instead of 20 seconds?

Doctors in MO are considering changing protocols when vaccinated staff is caring for COVID patients. Rolling back to more restrictive precautions and more isolation of staff after exposure. They're finding more breakthrough cases in staff, all mild so not huge concern to the individual. But, enough that the threat of spreading it on is higher and a concern. Bonus, they're already short staffed.

Vaccinated people able to spread it on with mild cases is likely to happen before we see vaccinated people having much worse outcomes. Assuming viral load is what causes both spread and sickness, ramping up enough to spread is going to happen before it ramps up enough to be a severe case.

So, we can wait until we're under the bus to have any concern.
We can try to avoid the conditions that will encourage that bus.
Or, we can cut the brakes line and stand in front.

I don't think the bus is here today, and I would like to keep it that way.

 

[DonniePeverley]

Cases now tickled up 20% in a week in the USA. Although this is from a low base.

But the trend is rising as Indian Delta takes hold. It's causing havoc in South East Asia now - with South Korea, Thailand seeing massive surges.

 

[GoofGoof]

Why do you think we are seeing government pushback on the idea of a booster?

Id love to get some feedback on this because my mind just says hey if we need them we need them.

Probably because they don’t think we need them Just because a booster exists doesn’t mean we should ask people to take it. There’s obvious reasons why Pfizer would want that to happen

If at some point a booster is recommended it could throw things into a bit of chaos. So would we consider fully vaccinated all 3 shots? We would create 3 groups: unvaccinated, vaccinated with the original 2 doses and fully vaccinated. I guess that exists today with some people not going back for shot 2 but I think a lot more people would potentially skip the booster.

 

[Angel Ariel]

So NJ and NY will NOT go back mask mandate by fall?

no one can answer this with 100% certainty.

 

[Angel Ariel]

Why do you think we are seeing government pushback on the idea of a booster?

Id love to get some feedback on this because my mind just says hey if we need them we need them.

My guess is because they are having a hard enough time getting some areas vaccinated at all and don’t want the idea of a booster making it even more difficult to get the initial vaxxes done in those areas.

 

[GimpYancIent]

Probably because they don’t think we need them Just because a booster exists doesn’t mean we should ask people to take it. There’s obvious reasons why Pfizer would want that to happen

If at some point a booster is recommended it could throw things into a bit of chaos. So would we consider fully vaccinated all 3 shots? We would create 3 groups: unvaccinated, vaccinated with the original 2 doses and fully vaccinated. I guess that exists today with some people not going back for shot 2 but I think a lot more people would potentially skip the booster.

Yep! As you said .

 

[Angel Ariel]

If they are doing this, then the fda better approve the vax for kids under 12 as soon as they can.

 

[Heppenheimer]

My guess is because they are having a hard enough time getting some areas vaccinated at all and don’t want the idea of a booster making it even more difficult to get the initial vaxxes done in those areas.

Plus, the current evidence indicates they are not yet needed. We have real-time clinical data that shows the two mRNA vaccines and AstraZenica are effective against all known variants (to different degrees) and we have lab studies that have provided hope that the protective effects of the vaccines will provide long-term immunity, like the MMR vaccines.

At this point, it looks like we may only need boosters if a variant evolves that can evade the current vaccines.

 

[GoofGoof]

Cases now tickled up 20% in a week in the USA. Although this is from a low base.

But the trend is rising as Indian Delta takes hold. It's causing havoc in South East Asia now - with South Korea, Thailand seeing massive surges.

South Korea = 29% of the population with 1 dose
Thailand = 12%
I’d say they have a lot more to worry about

July 8 US 7 day daily average = 15,993 or 4.83 cases per 100,000
July 1 US 7 day daily average = 13,874 or 4.19 cases per 100,000
That is a 15% increase in cases over the last week which is primarily driven by states with lower vaccination rates. It’s not shocking to see, but we have to keep the numbers in context too. We are not seeing increases in cases everywhere across the board. According to The NY Times tracker about half the states are up less than 10% over the last 14 days including 16 states that are still down. The National increase in cases is driven by 11 states which are showing a >50% increase in cases over the last 14 weeks. Even that is somewhat misleading since states like CA and IL are in that group but still at 4 and 3 cases per 100,000 which is a pretty low level.

 

[GoofGoof]

Yep! As you said .

It’s like when the razor company says I should change my blade every week for shaving . Of course they would love if I did that for obvious reasons, but my blade is still going strong a month later or more. Pfizer doesn‘t set policy or even make recommendations to the general public. They just want to be ready if/when some country says go.

 

[GoofGoof]

If they are doing this, then the fda better approve the vax for kids under 12 as soon as they can.

I think it has a larger impact at the High School level. Everyone will be eligible so schools can and should make their rule no masks for anyone fully vaccinated and require proof to drop the masks. It will likely result in 95%+ vaccine rates in most schools which is a great thing. For elementary schools I think most that did masks last year will require masks for students and likely teachers in the Fall until the vaccines are approved. Middle schools are tougher since they will likely have under and over 12 depending on what grade they start in. Most 7th and 8th graders are 12 by September but if the school is 6/7/8 I guess they will have to require some kids to wear masks.

 

[willtravel]

Why do you think we are seeing government pushback on the idea of a booster?

Id love to get some feedback on this because my mind just says hey if we need them we need them.

My question is who pays for the booster shot and the next year and the next year after that?

 

[willtravel]

I think telling the US public they will need a booster after 6 months will make people who are already hesitant more hesitant.

If Pfizer needs a booster after 6 months what about Moderna? What about J&J?

Somewhere I read that Moderna is showing better results against variants.

 

[TrainsOfDisney]

Somewhere I read that Moderna is showing better results against variants.

The J&J study was pretty promising as well if I remember correctly. Hey maybe all those people who said “Pfizer is the best” will be the only ones who have to go back for a booster!