If only we treated the adult children who oozed out of the slime last year, with the same care.
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Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion
- Thread starter Parker in NYC
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Heppenheimer
Well-Known Member
Well, that didn't take long for my post yesterday to become outdated.
I'm on my phone, so I can't link the news item, but Janssen (J&J) announced that in lab studies, the neutralizing antibodies from its vaccine were effective against the delta variant. That's not quite real-world data, but about as good as we can get for now until delta really starts causing a large accumulation of cases.
The same study also showed a strong immune response remained after at least 8 months, which means the induced immunity from the vaccine should endure. Combined, these two results make the need for possible near-term boosters less likely.
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Think Tink
Premium Member
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I still prefer wearing one indoors as well. I have had breathing issues since last year (non Covid related) but I take extra precautions. I’m going to WDW in a week and a half and already told my friend I will be masking up when inside. It makes me feel more comfortable doing things again and doesn’t hurt anyone so it’s all good for me
I also worry about vaxxed rate of infection but so far from what I see, most people either aren’t getting it, or have a very minor infection.
Heppenheimer
Well-Known Member
Here's one of many news reports on the latest findings for Janssen's vaccine:
www.cnn.com
J&J Covid-19 vaccine lasts at least 8 months, protects against Delta variant, studies find | CNN
The Johnson & Johnson coronavirus vaccine provides immunity that lasts at least eight months, and it appears to provide adequate protection against the worrying Delta variant, the company said in a statement Thursday night.
www.cnn.com
That's great.Here's one of many news reports on the latest findings for Janssen's vaccine:
J&J Covid-19 vaccine lasts at least 8 months, protects against Delta variant, studies find | CNN
The Johnson & Johnson coronavirus vaccine provides immunity that lasts at least eight months, and it appears to provide adequate protection against the worrying Delta variant, the company said in a statement Thursday night.
For the relative few of us that got the J&J, let's hope this holds up.
Hopefully more data and reporting continues, and this entire "need a booster" thing is just a perception thing not based in any data.
I did hear that the limited J&J two dose study was looking at something more like after 4 months than 4 weeks. I got mine less than 3 months ago, so still well within that window.
Still no J&J regrets.
GoofGoof
Premium Member
So are we back to calling it a “legit” vaccine
To quote Gloria Estefan... there's always tomorrow.So are we back to calling it a “legit” vaccine
Disstevefan1
Well-Known Member
Don’t worry, the “facts” will continue to toggle. Even the WHO and CDC can’t agree on some things. There is no 100 percent answer, good or bad, yes or no, on anything. Everyone must use their own judgement on what’s right for themselves; their best guess. That’s all we can do as individuals.
HeartOfTeFiti
Active Member
I was glad to see this on my morning news feed. It cooled me off a bit about trying to get a dose of a different vaccine. I'm assuming the 8 month time frame is because that's the duration of available information? As of today, it's been 3 months for me. I had a very strong immune response judging from how sick I felt beginning about 12 hours afterward. I don't know if there is really a correlation between side effects and immune response but I felt encouraged by it.
Board glitch, I'm sure this is a post from last year.
danlb_2000
Premium Member
Zummi Gummi
Pioneering the Universe Within!
The WHO and the CDC shouldn’t agree on everything. One is charged with advising one country that has had a fairly robust vaccine rollout, the other advocates for an entire planet where vaccines are much rarer in most places.
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Heppenheimer
Well-Known Member
Correct, but it's encouraging, because drawing on experience from other vaccines, if the antibody response hasn't diminished in 6-9 months, that usually means the effect will endure long-term. So, more like a tetanus vaccine, at least, than a seasonal influenza shot.
The study isn't definitive, because the ultimate test is sustained reductions in real world case numbers amongst vaccinated individuals, but it at least gives us further hope.
DonniePeverley
Well-Known Member
Here’s the stark reality of the UK situation…
Currently, the doubling time is 9 days.
So by the 19th July we will have 90,000 cases a day - when all restrictions including masks go. The equivalent to the USA would be nearly 450,000 cases a day.
Hospitalisations? Important to consider…. But you just cannot simply ignore 90k cases a day.
Currently, the doubling time is 9 days.
So by the 19th July we will have 90,000 cases a day - when all restrictions including masks go. The equivalent to the USA would be nearly 450,000 cases a day.
Hospitalisations? Important to consider…. But you just cannot simply ignore 90k cases a day.
Disstevefan1
Well-Known Member
Agreed, the US at least looks to be coming out of it finally. Let’s hope there is no spike of the variant in the US. Only time will tell... and that has worked out so well over the past 18 months.
disneygeek90
Well-Known Member
Not a good look.
GoofGoof
Premium Member
Back of the envelope math again. UK has 68M people and 2/3 have at least the first shot leaving roughly 22M people unvaccinated. With 5M known natural infections let’s assume half are in the unvaccinated group. That leaves roughly 20M people with no immunity. If the cases are at 90,000 a day and doubling every 9 days in a little over 30 days all of the people left with no immunity will be infected and the nation will have achieved full herd immunity by mid-August
. Since infections are still over 95% in unvaccinated people the math works. Do I think that will happen? Not likely. What goes up eventually drops down again. No reason to assume cases will double every 9 days indefinitely.
hopemax
Well-Known Member
Speaking of "back of the envelope" math, Trevor Bedford presented a possible US outcome for Delta in a Twitter thread a couple days ago.
TL;DR: Estimates 38% of the US population is vulnerable (unvaccinated, no previous infection). Given UK numbers, estimates 29% of that group will be infected. Resolving into 11% of the US population that will be infected or about 36 million people. But large margin of error / low confidence, given "back of envelope" math.
TL;DR: Estimates 38% of the US population is vulnerable (unvaccinated, no previous infection). Given UK numbers, estimates 29% of that group will be infected. Resolving into 11% of the US population that will be infected or about 36 million people. But large margin of error / low confidence, given "back of envelope" math.
GoofGoof
Premium Member
That’s one way to get to herd immunity….not the easy way, but a possible path. When the dust settles in the next month of so on vaccinations I expect we will be around 60% of the total population vaccinated (including nobody under 12). 10.5% of the population has tested positive but the total actually infected could be as high as 20% or more. If we assume roughly half the natural infections came in the unvaccinated group it’s probably safe to assume around 10% of the population is unvaccinated but naturally immune. So 60% immune with vaccines and 10% naturally immune but unvaccinated gets us around 70% immune. If we then add 11% more of the population to that number we likely get above 80% immune which may be good enough to reach herd immunity and end the pandemic here. It will certainly be enough once a portion of the 15% of the population who are under 12 get added into the vaccinated group. If we get to hundreds of thousands or millions of cases a day (as suggested) it will also light a fire under the unvaccinated group and boost the vaccine numbers. Again, not the easy way, but a path that may work.
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