Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[Flugell]

I apologise if that is the case in Canada, though they have said they are not certain of the benefit and it is based on a small study. However you began by referring to the U.K., as far as I can tell. Everything I have said from the U.K. remains correct as you can see from the NHS site I linked.

 

[Parker in NYC]

Sometimes I like to look back at old posts to see where I was right and where I was wrong. So in early April, I made some summer predictions of the return to normalcy..... So now that we have started summer..




Mostly correct so far, except outdoor masking got lifted even faster than anticipated. And I was wrong about indoor masking.



So far, I was overly optimistic about Fantasmic and early entry.



BATB just started re-hiring. No news on Nemo, Indy, etc. So very late summer, at the earliest, seems correct for all three. I was flat out wrong about magic Kingdom fireworks. Indoor masking ended much earlier than I expected, though still have transportation masking. R




So far this looks accurate, but we will see.

Let me show you some of my posts from 16 months ago…

I kid, I have no wish to revisit them again.

 

[SirLink]

I apologise if that is the case in Canada, though they have said they are not certain of the benefit and it is based on a small study. However you began by referring to the U.K., as far as I can tell. Everything I have said from the U.K. remains correct as you can see from the NHS site I linked.

Nope the UK is only investigating mixed doses on a third booster and has a trial underway at present. It doesn't state what your ascertaining on the NHS website, and was added after people had an anaphylactic shock who got Pfizer as their first jab were recommended to get AZ as their second shot.

But not the other way round.

 

[seascape]

The NY Times is reporting the US is now averaging 11,606 cases per day or 3 cases per 100k. I an slighly confused because I am using a population of 331.4 million and come up with 3.502 which rounds to 4. However, it is close.

Anyway, the numbers are good. Unfortunately, Florida is still averaging 1,442 or 7 cases per 100k. That means Florida has 12.4% of US cases. However the US now has 8 states with 1 case per 100k, 12 states with 2, 7 states with 3, 12 states with 4, 1 state with 5, 4 stares with 6, Florida with 7, 3 states with 8, 2 states with 9 and only Missouri with 10. The next big number for the US to go after is falling below 10,000 cases a day.

 

[Lilofan]

What a CATastrophe.

Good CATch!

 

[DisneyCane]

The NY Times is reporting the US is now averaging 11,606 cases per day or 3 cases per 100k. I an slighly confused because I am using a population of 331.4 million and come up with 3.502 which rounds to 4. However, it is close.

Anyway, the numbers are good. Unfortunately, Florida is still averaging 1,442 or 7 cases per 100k. That means Florida has 12.4% of US cases. However the US now has 8 states with 1 case per 100k, 12 states with 2, 7 states with 3, 12 states with 4, 1 state with 5, 4 stares with 6, Florida with 7, 3 states with 8, 2 states with 9 and only Missouri with 10. The next big number for the US to go after is falling below 10,000 cases a day.

Week over week, cases in FL dropped about 11%. Based on the rate of newly vaccinated of around 125k per week, I'd anticipate a continued slow and steady decline.

The "numbers" really don't matter at this point because they are so low. Using data from worldometers.info, the seven day rolling average of cases is currently less than double what it was when FL was in full mitigation mode last April and testing capacity was not adequate. Even the 10 per 100k in MO is very low by any measure that was used just a few months ago.

If you don't want to have a serious illness due to COVID then get vaccinated. The remaining large group that can't get vaccinated are truly at an infinitesimal risk. For FL residents under 16, there have been 7 COVID deaths in over a year (a 0.0002% risk), most of which had a pretty raging pandemic. 12 and up can be vaccinated now. From what I remember when they last published the data, very few of the under 16 fatalities were under 12.

 

[Flugell]

Nope the UK is only investigating mixed doses on a third booster and has a trial underway at present. It doesn't state what your ascertaining on the NHS website, and was added after people had an anaphylactic shock who got Pfizer as their first jab were recommended to get AZ as their second shot.

But not the other way round.

Thats more or less what I said, though the National Health Service website is accurate but has many pages and subheadings so you may have found something I missed. Would be grateful if you could post the link!

It is being investigated/studied as a possibility if a third booster shot is required. They are concerned with maximum efficacy against all variants - new and existing. Very sensible in my opinion.

 

[SirLink]

Thats more or less what I said, though the National Health Service website is accurate but has many pages and subheadings so you may have found something I missed. Would be grateful if you could post the link!

Not good at posting and cropping images, however on the same link: Here

If you scroll to 'Can I choose which vaccine I have?' It is there.

 

[GoofGoof]

Let me show you some of my posts from 16 months ago…

I kid, I have no wish to revisit them again.

I agree. Going back and looking at some of the first pages of quotes is pretty interesting. As I’ve said for a while now I’ve been wrong about more stuff than I’ve been right about. It’s been quite a ride.

The one area that I’m thrilled to have been right on is the accelerated pace of Disney’s ”return to normal” for the Summer. Back in Jan/Feb there were a lot of people doubting the speed of the vaccine rollout and the impact it could have on Covid restrictions and cases. When the Federal government said we would have enough dose for everyone by the end of July there were some here who wrote off the Summer. I was very bullish on the manufacturers getting us the doses even sooner and they delivered big time. It’s disappointing that more people didn’t get the vaccine quicker, but the end result so far has been about the same, just delayed a little bit. When Chapek said WDW would have masks and distancing until the end of the 2021 fiscal year but left the door open for a faster timeline if vaccines were available to everyone by April I was bullish those restrictions would be dropped sooner and hopeful they would be dropped by Summer (which came true ). I was attacked on a few threads for suggesting that if the vaccine deliveries weren’t delayed we could have enough people vaccinated and the cases low enough for Disney to drop most or all covid restrictions by sometime this Summer. I’m happy that of all the stuff I got wrong that was not one of them

 

[DisneyFan32]

I agree. Going back and looking at some of the first pages of quotes is pretty interesting. As I’ve said for a while now I’ve been wrong about more stuff than I’ve been right about. It’s been quite a ride.

The one area that I’m thrilled to have been right on is the accelerated pace of Disney’s ”return to normal” for the Summer. Back in Jan/Feb there were a lot of people doubting the speed of the vaccine rollout and the impact it could have on Covid restrictions and cases. When the Federal government said we would have enough dose for everyone by the end of July there were some here who wrote off the Summer. I was very bullish on the manufacturers getting us the doses even sooner and they delivered big time. It’s disappointing that more people didn’t get the vaccine quicker, but the end result so far has been about the same, just delayed a little bit. When Chapek said WDW would have masks and distancing until the end of the 2021 fiscal year but left the door open for a faster timeline if vaccines were available to everyone by April I was bullish those restrictions would be dropped sooner and hopeful they would be dropped by Summer (which came true ). I was attacked on a few threads for suggesting that if the vaccine deliveries weren’t delayed we could have enough people vaccinated and the cases low enough for Disney to drop most or all covid restrictions by sometime this Summer. I’m happy that of all the stuff I got wrong that was not one of them

On one small aspect of this whole pandemic team optimism 1, team doom and gloom 0

MSN

www.msn.com

 

[Flugell]

Not good at posting and cropping images, however on the same link: Here

If you scroll to 'Can I choose which vaccine I have?' It is there.

Thanks! From reading your recent posts I think you and I are on the same wavelength!

 

[Chi84]

I agree. Going back and looking at some of the first pages of quotes is pretty interesting. As I’ve said for a while now I’ve been wrong about more stuff than I’ve been right about. It’s been quite a ride.

The one area that I’m thrilled to have been right on is the accelerated pace of Disney’s ”return to normal” for the Summer. Back in Jan/Feb there were a lot of people doubting the speed of the vaccine rollout and the impact it could have on Covid restrictions and cases. When the Federal government said we would have enough dose for everyone by the end of July there were some here who wrote off the Summer. I was very bullish on the manufacturers getting us the doses even sooner and they delivered big time. It’s disappointing that more people didn’t get the vaccine quicker, but the end result so far has been about the same, just delayed a little bit. When Chapek said WDW would have masks and distancing until the end of the 2021 fiscal year but left the door open for a faster timeline if vaccines were available to everyone by April I was bullish those restrictions would be dropped sooner and hopeful they would be dropped by Summer (which came true ). I was attacked on a few threads for suggesting that if the vaccine deliveries weren’t delayed we could have enough people vaccinated and the cases low enough for Disney to drop most or all covid restrictions by sometime this Summer. I’m happy that of all the stuff I got wrong that was not one of them

On one small aspect of this whole pandemic team optimism 1, team doom and gloom 0

Some focused too heavily on WDW's statement about "some form" of masks and social distancing until year's end and ignored what was said about a faster timeline if the vaccines worked as well as hoped (a "game-changer"). Also, there were those who absolutely refused to believe that the CDC would revise its guidelines in accordance with its data instead of continuing mitigation measures that were no longer needed. Congrats on weathering the criticism and being one of the few optimists who made it to page 3693!

 

[correcaminos]

Some focused too heavily on WDW's statement about "some form" of masks and social distancing until year's end and ignored what was said about a faster timeline if the vaccines worked as well as hoped (a "game-changer"). Also, there were those who absolutely refused to believe that the CDC would revise its guidelines in accordance with its data instead of continuing mitigation measures that were no longer needed. Congrats on weathering the criticism and being one of the few optimists who made it to page 3693!

At some point I just thought a magic 8 ball would be better at predicting how fast changes would happen than picking myself. Seeing how quickly things were reversed though really had me thinking anything was possible. Some didn't believe Disney would drop masks so fast, but even before we left on the 3rd we were prepared for changes along the way. By Wedsnesday and Thursday last week dining really showed me they were up for changes and fast. Tables were being added immediately. Dividers were removed in some monorails even. Was interesting to watch.

 

[GoofGoof]

Well... the reason you were right was because the CDC and Biden reversed what they had said about masks overnight.

The change was sudden, but the fundamental reason for the change has been part of the plan since last November when the first vaccine got approval. The plan has always been that we get enough people vaccinated to drive cases down and then we relax mitigation until all restrictions are gone. We’re almost there. The CDC change on masks and distancing for fully vaccinated people was based on the downward trajectory of cases and the total number of people vaccinated. We can debate what the right level of each should have been to make such a change but it was the CDCs call and they made it based on science and statistics and not just a random change.

 

[TrainsOfDisney]

The change was sudden, but the fundamental reason for the change has been part of the plan since last November when the first vaccine got approval. The plan has always been that we get enough people vaccinated to drive cases down and then we relax mitigation until all restrictions are gone. We’re almost there. The CDC change on masks and distancing for fully vaccinated people was based on the downward trajectory of cases and the total number of people vaccinated. We can debate what the right level of each should have been to make such a change but it was the CDCs call and they made it based on science and statistics and not just a random change.

I never said it was a random change. I said they reversed what they had said overnight. I was not happy with how the CDC and President Biden made that call.

 

[GoofGoof]

Can we not make this into another us vs. them?

Not sure I understand what you mean. I started out saying that I was wrong more times than I was right in this thread. You could literally go back and pick a hundred posts out where something I said didn’t happen. One guy even did start doing that .

Now that the last of the distancing and mask rules at WDW have been relaxed (outside of transport) and the capacity limits have been removed for all practical purposes I see no harm in celebrating the “return to mostly normal” at the parks. I understand that some people think it’s a mistake or too soon and that‘s a valid opinion and I’m not arguing that one way or the other. Just reacting to the situation as it unfolds.

I saw this post from blog Mickey which I thought was really cool. It’s a collage of pictures of mask free CMs smiling happily. As we have all followed the progress of WDW during the pandemic there has been a ton of debate back and forth mostly focused on guest experience, but it must be a huge relief for the CMs who first and foremost are all back from furlough and working again, but also finally do not have to wear a mask every day to work in the hot sun and also don’t have to deal with enforcing mask and distancing rules anymore.

Disney World Cast Members Share Smiles as Face Masks Become Optional Outdoors

Walt Disney World news, photos, and reviews! We provide you with daily news from the Walt Disney World theme parks and beyond

blogmickey.com

 

[AEfx]

I never said it was a random change. I said they reversed what they had said overnight. I was not happy with how the CDC and President Biden made that call.

Yup. The timing was purely a "marketing" decision. Punctuated by slick, ad-agency created "info-graphics".

They saw the vaccinations were dropping, that they weren't going to meet their big 70% goal, and decided it was a last ditch way to try to get more people to do it. Even though as any intelligent person knows, the vaccine resistant portion of the public did not respond by "Oh gee, I should get vaccinated now!" but instead tore off their masks since no one was going to enforce it any more.

"The science" didn't change in the three days between when Fauci said masks were not going anywhere any time soon and the White House made it's sudden, about face.

 

[GoofGoof]

I never said it was a random change. I said they reversed what they had said overnight. I was not happy with how the CDC and President Biden made that call.

I would not have been opposed to a plan where they gave a future date to give businesses and state/local governments more time to plan. So I agree there. I also would not have been opposed to the CDC firmly recommending all employers only allow workers to go mask free if they show proof of vaccination. Some states did it that way which I think is the better plan.

 

[GoofGoof]

I've come to the conclusion that most people who obsessively post daily in this thread are doing so to reassure/convince themselves of whatever narrative they want to believe. So they have divided people up into groups to make it easier to construct their own version of reality, so they can dismiss them and gain reassurance of their chosen narrative.

I’m not sure that‘s a fair characterization of my posting history here, but I guess everyone is entitled to an opinion. Sorry if I offended you or others. I’ve been posting here since the start and there have been some really low points and
finally some reasons to be optimistic. We aren’t out of the woods yet, but things are looking good right now.

 

[ImperfectPixie]

Not sure I understand what you mean. I started out saying that I was wrong more times than I was right in this thread. You could literally go back and pick a hundred posts out where something I said didn’t happen. One guy even did start doing that .

Specifically this...

On one small aspect of this whole pandemic team optimism 1, team doom and gloom 0

We ALL want the pandemic to end...some of us are just of the opinion that especially with the delta variant in the US that we're moving too quickly. And with so many areas doing so poorly with vaccination, mutations are a real concern.