Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[ParentsOf4]

My only question is why are so many people on this thread still insisting that the problem with Covid19 will last for months. The reality is that with just 4.54 cases per 100,000 and dropping quickly it is likely that the US will fall to just 2 cases per 100,000. With every passing day the more convinced I am that this pandemic in the US is over.

Despite widespread coverage, the number of cases is not a particularly important metric. We would not have imposed lockdowns, mask mandates, social distancing, etc. if people were simply getting sick.

The most important metric is deaths.

Weeks ago on this thread, some of us discussed what was the acceptable level of death. At 200 deaths per day, I'm pretty sure I was the highest. 200 deaths per day puts us at about 72,000 deaths per year.

Others suggested numbers of 100 to 150 deaths per day.

Despite tremendous declines, the 7-day moving average is 346 deaths per day. That's 126,000 deaths per year.

You ask:

My only question is why are so many people on this thread still insisting that the problem with Covid19 will last for months.​

Because at 346 deaths per day (126,000 deaths per year), we still have a ways to go before we can completely return to normal.

 

[danlb_2000]

Hoping not to offend anyone? The primary thing that those who HAVE been fully vaccinated must remember:

Those that, for whatever reason have NOT been vaccinated, are literally ZERO threat to you. Just me - I would worry more about a drunk driver, or some new terrible thawed Tyrannosaurus to human plague . The protection stats on current vaccine are literally astounding. Really hoping we can get a Flu vaccine, using the same technology.

Please - if willing and able? Get vaccinated. Then let Nature solve the remaining issues. Nature is very good at this.

If that statement were true, then no one who is vaccinated would have died from the virus, which they have. The threat to you from an unvaccinated person is very small, but it is not zero.

 

[DisneyFan32]

I have a feeling the next pandemic will come between 2026-2028 or 2029/2030....I don't think it's happen for next 100 years or so....
I don't want be like COVID-19 pandemic again soon in the future..... Is the future vaccines will preventing another pandemic in the future?

 

[drizgirl]

I have a feeling the next pandemic will come between 2026-2028 or 2029/2030....I don't think it's happen for next 100 years or so....
I don't want be like COVID-19 pandemic again soon in the future..... Is the future vaccines will preventing another pandemic in the future?

I guess it depends on how much careless research is being conducted going forward.

 

[GimpYancIent]

Measles is also one of the most contagious viruses out there. From the CDC:

Measles is one of the most contagious diseases​

Measles is so contagious that if one person has it, up to 90% of the people close to that person who are not immune will also become infected. Infected people can spread measles to others from four days before through four days after the rash appears. Measles virus can live for up to two hours in an airspace after an infected person leaves an area.

The hope is that even though a lower percent of people are immune to covid than measles we won’t see a large number of mass outbreaks because it’s not as contagious. Outbreaks will happen, but hopefully we can contain them and they don’t become widespread community spread again.

Measles is Easily Transmitted

Infected people can spread measles through coughing and sneezing.

www.cdc.gov

So now the fear mongering is shifting back to other pre-COVID diseases? Hmmmmm.

 

[GoofGoof]

Despite widespread coverage, the number of cases is not a particularly important metric. We would not have imposed lockdowns, masks mandates, social distancing, etc. if people were simply getting sick.

The most important metric is deaths.

Weeks ago on this thread, some of us discussed what was the acceptable level of death. At 200 deaths per day, I'm pretty sure I was the highest. 200 deaths per day puts us at about 72,000 deaths per year.

Others suggests numbers of 100 to 150 deaths per day.

Despite tremendous declines, the 7-day moving average is 346 deaths per day. That's 126,000 deaths per year.

View attachment 562181

You ask:

My only question is why are so many people on this thread still insisting that the problem with Covid19 will last for months.​

Because at 346 deaths per day (126,000 deaths per year), we still have a ways to go before we can completely return to normal.

I brought this up a few pages back. With 86% of 65+ vaccinated the fact that deaths are still this high blows a huge hole in the narrative that only old people die from Covid. The vast majority of high risk people have been vaccinated. Deaths are down and so are hospitalizations, but not to the level people expected. I’m hoping that it’s just the idea that they are lagging stats and in a month that changes. In my opinion with the level of vaccination we are achieving we should get well below 100 deaths a day.

There is a concerning trend of increased serious infection in unvaccinated young people which happens to be the group least likely to be vaccinated. The article below talks about the increase in hospitalizations among teens and young people comparing Jan-Mar to April. Almost a third of the hospitalizations were in people with no underlying health conditions. The level of hospitalization was also over 3 times greater than the average flu season. This blows major holes in the theory that vaccinating teens doesn‘t matter or doesn’t count in the stats and that Covid is somehow less of a risk than flu in kids and young adults. We have to continue to push vaccinations, especially in younger people. We need to work to kill the narrative that covid is only an old person’s disease.

‘Deeply concerned:’ COVID hospitalization rates in teens doubled in a month, CDC says

Consistent with demographics of adults, about two thirds of the hospitalized teens were Hispanic or Black.

www.yahoo.com

 

[GoofGoof]

So now the fear mongering is shifting back to other pre-COVID diseases? Hmmmmm.

How is that fear mongering??? The whole point of posting that write up about how contagious measles is was the exact opposite of fear mongering. Measles has been eliminated in the US. That’s the official term used by the CDC since we still have outbreaks from time to time but they are driven by foreign sources coming into the country. 95%+ of the population has the measles vaccine and that’s why it’s been eliminated. Covid is much less contagious than measles so we likely don’t need 95% of the population immune to covid to eliminate it. That’s the good news.

 

[GoofGoof]

There’s actually just two streams that the CDC had proposed. One for 95+ vaccinated passengers and the other for ones under the threshold. It’s not so much of a Royal problem (they are sailing to Alaska and other countries with vaccine requirements), but the make up of guests in their Caribbean ports and political pressure. NCL seems confident they can fill ships without families so it will be interesting to see how they clash with Florida.

On the non-vaccination required cruises there will be more restrictions in place and testing for unvaccinated individuals on boarding and disembarkment are still required. I’m not sure exactly how that will be enforced though... but theoretically it’s not different than allowing air travel.

DCL will also have to take this route because of the volume of Under 12 they’d predictably have.

Personally, I’d gladly take a one of the fully vaccinated itineraries. Which rules out DCL most of all.

I did read recently that the Alaska cruise season is in jeopardy this Summer due to the FL Governor’s lawsuit. If a judge rules he CDC guidelines are not valid or just suspended until a full ruling can be made the Alaska cruise season is basically cancelled since they are relying on that order that is being challenged in court. The governor of Alaska supported the lawsuit at first but they are very concerned there now about losing a cruise season which only lasts a limited time.

 

[GimpYancIent]

I did read recently that the Alaska cruise season is in jeopardy this Summer due to the FL Governor’s lawsuit. If a judge rules he CDC guidelines are not valid or just suspended until a full ruling can be made the Alaska cruise season is basically cancelled since they are relying on that order that is being challenged in court. The governor of Alaska supported the lawsuit at first but they are very concerned there now about losing a cruise season which only lasts a limited time.

Gives the term "being put on ice" new meaning.

 

[Dreaming of Disney World]

I brought this up a few pages back. With 86% of 65+ vaccinated the fact that deaths are still this high blows a huge hole in the narrative that only old people die from Covid. The vast majority of high risk people have been vaccinated. Deaths are down and so are hospitalizations, but not to the level people expected. I’m hoping that it’s just the idea that they are lagging stats and in a month that changes. In my opinion with the level of vaccination we are achieving we should get well below 100 deaths a day.

There is a concerning trend of increased serious infection in unvaccinated young people which happens to be the group least likely to be vaccinated. The article below talks about the increase in hospitalizations among teens and young people comparing Jan-Mar to April. Almost a third of the hospitalizations were in people with no underlying health conditions. The level of hospitalization was also over 3 times greater than the average flu season. This blows major holes in the theory that vaccinating teens doesn‘t matter or doesn’t count in the stats and that Covid is somehow less of a risk than flu in kids and young adults. We have to continue to push vaccinations, especially in younger people. We need to work to kill the narrative that covid is only an old person’s disease.

‘Deeply concerned:’ COVID hospitalization rates in teens doubled in a month, CDC says

Consistent with demographics of adults, about two thirds of the hospitalized teens were Hispanic or Black.

www.yahoo.com

I agree. That's why I'm still being very cautious with my children. They mostly stay home or visit outdoors places and always wear a mask.

 

[JoeCamel]

Looks like Royal Caribbean has caved to political pressure. Vaccinations will not be required for passengers on cruises leaving FL and TX. I wouldn’t be caught dead on a cruise ship any time soon anyway, but that seems like a real recipe for disaster. My biggest concern for the US from this is these ships stop at other International ports so unvaccinated guests could get off and come back with these more contagious variants. They won’t require you to show a negative covid test before getting back on the ship. At least with International flights everyone has to pass a Covid test before coming back into the country.

Royal Caribbean reverses vaccination mandate for passengers on cruises departing from ports in Florida and Texas as tension over vaccine passports intensifies

The company announced that guests are "strongly recommended to set sail fully vaccinated" but will not be mandated to do so, nor show verification.

www.yahoo.com

The ship will be a floating vat of Purell. The first sailings will come back clean, when they loosen up the mitigations then will be the time not to sail. I would take one of the first, it will be overkill theatre but still safe.

 

[GimpYancIent]

The ship will be a floating vat of Purell. The first sailings will come back clean, when they loosen up the mitigations then will be the time not to sail. I would take one of the first, it will be overkill theatre but still safe.

Exactly. The first sailings will be the cleanest, sanitary and with careful adherence to mitigation protocols after the initial weighing's of anchors have occurred the floating petri dishes will again begin cultivating.

 

[ParentsOf4]

I brought this up a few pages back. With 86% of 65+ vaccinated the fact that deaths are still this high blows a huge hole in the narrative that only old people die from Covid. The vast majority of high risk people have been vaccinated. Deaths are down and so are hospitalizations, but not to the level people expected. I’m hoping that it’s just the idea that they are lagging stats and in a month that changes. In my opinion with the level of vaccination we are achieving we should get well below 100 deaths a day.

I was just going to PM you about this! But since you mentioned it on this thread, I might as well reply here.

"Only old people die from Covid" depends on what you consider old. My twentysomething year-old children consider anyone over the age of 39 as old.

My point is, COVID deaths among those who are 40 to 64 are high as well. Certainly not as high as 65+, but the media has been largely ignoring the "middle age" death rate.

Here's the age distribution of cases, hospitalization, and deaths in my state of Georgia:

Note that deaths below the age of 40 are so low that they are imperceptible on the scale of this graph. They are barely noticeable for 40-49 but become more apparent for 50-59.

The focus has been on vaccinating those who are 65 and older. As a result, those under age 65 have perceived COVID as less of a threat. Their vaccination rates are much lower.

Is there a correlation between death rates and age 40+ vaccination rates? The best I can find on the CDC website only shows age 18+ vaccination rates. Yet when I combine these with death rates, there is no apparent correlation. Some of the states with the lowest 18+ vaccination rates are doing just as well as some of the states with the highest vaccination rates.

Any idea how to get the vaccination rates for those 40 and older?

 

[GoofGoof]

I was just going to PM you about this! But since you mentioned it on this thread, I might as well reply here.

"Only old people die from Covid" depends on what you consider old. My twentysomething year-old children consider anyone over the age of 39 as old.

My point is, COVID deaths among those who are 40 to 64 are high as well. Certainly not as high as 65+, but the media has been largely ignoring the "middle age" death rate.

Here's the age distribution of cases, hospitalization, and deaths in my state of Georgia:

View attachment 562204

Note that deaths below the age of 40 are so low that they are imperceptible on the scale of this graph. They are barely noticeable for 40-49 but become more apparent for 50-59.

The focus has been on vaccinating those who are 65 and older. As a result, those under age 65 have perceived COVID as less of a threat. Their vaccination rates are much lower.

Is there a correlation between death rates and age 40+ vaccination rates? The best I can find on the CDC website only shows age 18+ vaccination rates. Yet when I combine these with death rates, there is no apparent correlation. Some of the states with the lowest 18+ vaccination rates are doing just as well as some of the states with the highest vaccination rates.

View attachment 562205



Any idea how to get the vaccination rates for those 40 and older?

I agree on deaths. The article I attached even showed that of the teens and young adults hospitalized almost all made a full recovery. So in terms of death only, Covid is still mostly an old person’s disease. Being sick enough to be hospitalized should still be pretty undesirable. I know some people who insist that Covid is no threat to them due to age and health but it’s simply not true unless you narrowly define “threat” as death. Young people holding on to that false narrative is one of the big drivers of the slowing the vaccination rate in that age group. It’s a real challenge to reach these people with this message since they either don’t tune into mainstream media or believe it’s all fake news and fear mongering. On social media we probably need more of these influencer types to embrace that message but it seems like the opposite happens and unfortunately the narrative on social media is being manipulated by foreign nations and a handful of anti-vaxx crusaders who are profiting from their anti-vaxx stance selling books and supplements.

 

[GoofGoof]

The ship will be a floating vat of Purell. The first sailings will come back clean, when they loosen up the mitigations then will be the time not to sail. I would take one of the first, it will be overkill theatre but still safe.

I am pretty much fine with our progress on return to normal. There are some things I probably would have done differently and some I think worked well, but overall I think we are in a good place as a country. I feel even better about where I live due to the higher vaccination rate. So in general I’m in favor of the relaxing of covid mitigations as cases continue to fall and vaccinations continue to rise. That’s been the plan all along and it appears to be working.

I have said for a while now the greatest threat to our progress is International travel. That’s one area that needs to be highly regulated still since many parts of the world are far behind the US on vaccinations. We can‘t afford to become complacent on that aspect and drop our guard. So far International Flights in still require a negative covid test. I’d be fine with implementing a vaccination requirement to travel Internationally but the covid test is a compromise I can live with. There’s always the risk that someone passes the test and is then infected and brings covid into the country. With the cruise ships this risk goes up exponentially since the ships make multiple international stops. I think if the cruise lines want to allow unvaccinated people to cruise then those people should not be allowed off the ship and back on. It’s a fair compromise so people aren’t flat out denied access. Maybe for DCL they could allow unvaccinated people off the ship on their private island since it’s more contained.

 

[GoofGoof]

A sobering look at what can happen in areas with low vaccination rates. National numbers that we tend to focus on matter too, but this is the type of localized outbreak people fear going forward in places with below average vaccination levels.

Why these 2 Missouri counties' COVID-19 surges are among worst in the country

Sherry Weldon thought the worst of the pandemic was over for Livingston County, a rural area in northern Missouri, after the winter. "Then in May, it just hit really quick -- with a vengeance," Weldon, the administrator of the Livingston County Health Department, told ABC News. Whereas the...

www.yahoo.com

 

[ABQ]

I brought this up a few pages back. With 86% of 65+ vaccinated the fact that deaths are still this high blows a huge hole in the narrative that only old people die from Covid. The vast majority of high risk people have been vaccinated. Deaths are down and so are hospitalizations, but not to the level people expected. I’m hoping that it’s just the idea that they are lagging stats and in a month that changes. In my opinion with the level of vaccination we are achieving we should get well below 100 deaths a day.

There is a concerning trend of increased serious infection in unvaccinated young people which happens to be the group least likely to be vaccinated. The article below talks about the increase in hospitalizations among teens and young people comparing Jan-Mar to April. Almost a third of the hospitalizations were in people with no underlying health conditions. The level of hospitalization was also over 3 times greater than the average flu season. This blows major holes in the theory that vaccinating teens doesn‘t matter or doesn’t count in the stats and that Covid is somehow less of a risk than flu in kids and young adults. We have to continue to push vaccinations, especially in younger people. We need to work to kill the narrative that covid is only an old person’s disease.

‘Deeply concerned:’ COVID hospitalization rates in teens doubled in a month, CDC says

Consistent with demographics of adults, about two thirds of the hospitalized teens were Hispanic or Black.

www.yahoo.com

The numbers don't support an increase in deaths in younger people. The hospitalizations may be up, but this has not resulted in the worst possible outcome, being deaths.
Data source: https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Provisional-COVID-19-Deaths-by-Sex-and-Age/9bhg-hcku

 

[Jrb1979]

A sobering look at what can happen in areas with low vaccination rates. National numbers that we tend to focus on matter too, but this is the type of localized outbreak people fear going forward in places with below average vaccination levels.

Why these 2 Missouri counties' COVID-19 surges are among worst in the country

Sherry Weldon thought the worst of the pandemic was over for Livingston County, a rural area in northern Missouri, after the winter. "Then in May, it just hit really quick -- with a vengeance," Weldon, the administrator of the Livingston County Health Department, told ABC News. Whereas the...

www.yahoo.com

It's exactly why I think there should have been a better plan in place from the CDC. Instead it's pretty much turned into no masks for everyone cause businesses don't want the burden of making those not vaccinated wear a mask. It also why I don't agree with those who say since they ar vaccinated that it shouldn't matter.

 

[Rich Brownn]

People who have children that are high risk would disagree with you on this.

CDC director 'deeply concerned' over rise in teens hospitalized with Covid

The chief of the CDC implored parents to talk with teens about the importance of wearing masks and to "encourage them to get vaccinated."

www.nbcnews.com

 

[Rich Brownn]

I agree on deaths. The article I attached even showed that of the teens and young adults hospitalized almost all made a full recovery. So in terms of death only, Covid is still mostly an old person’s disease. Being sick enough to be hospitalized should still be pretty undesirable. I know some people who insist that Covid is no threat to them due to age and health but it’s simply not true unless you narrowly define “threat” as death. Young people holding on to that false narrative is one of the big drivers of the slowing the vaccination rate in that age group. It’s a real challenge to reach these people with this message since they either don’t tune into mainstream media or believe it’s all fake news and fear mongering. On social media we probably need more of these influencer types to embrace that message but it seems like the opposite happens and unfortunately the narrative on social media is being manipulated by foreign nations and a handful of anti-vaxx crusaders who are profiting from their anti-vaxx stance selling books and supplements.

remember, even after recovery those who had serious cases still suffer organ damage and nearly 50% report still having symptoms months later.