• Welcome to the WDWMAGIC.COM Forums!
    Please take a look around, and feel free to sign up and join the community.You can use your Twitter or Facebook account to sign up, or register directly.

Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

DisneyCane

Well-Known Member

One change that makes it more accurate is the vaccination data now only includes FL residents so the percentage isn't artificially high from vaccine tourism.

Also, somehow I didn't notice earlier but they started including percent of population vaccinated by age range.
 

BrianLo

Well-Known Member
I was off by a day in my prediction, but 60% of the total Canadian population has had at least one dose.

Still averaging about 5% of the population a week.

I feel fairly confident now that we’ll overtake Israel. We’re due for the pace to drop off, but there still is a backlog of booked appointments. Probably within a week.

I’m actually surprised Ontario is being so slow, as an aside. It’s weird how variably even we’ve had provinces manage this.
 

Mark52479

Well-Known Member
But remember, there is always going to be a portion of the population that will have natural immunity. And you have to figure that number is between 10-15%.

So even these states that will have 50 or 60% fully vaccinated in the end game add the natural immunity into that number.

If we are talking 1 shot and natural immunity I think most states will be close to that 60-70% in the end
 

MaryJaneP

Well-Known Member
Is there a portion of the population that has natural immunity to the polio virus? How about natural immunity to measles, mumps, rubella, chicken pox, hepatitis, all the other viruses? Are those members of the population encouraged to get vaccinated against those diseases for their own good as well as for "herd immunity"? Is there a good non-political reason that those who can be vaccinated, are excused? Fear of needles and governmental nano-robot tracking microchips not withstanding.
 

lazyboy97o

Well-Known Member
Is there a portion of the population that has natural immunity to the polio virus? How about natural immunity to measles, mumps, rubella, chicken pox, hepatitis, all the other viruses? Are those members of the population encouraged to get vaccinated against those diseases for their own good as well as for "herd immunity"? Is there a good non-political reason that those who can be vaccinated, are excused? Fear of needles and governmental nano-robot tracking microchips not withstanding.
Haven’t you heard? We’d be more free if we still had polio and more measles.
 

GoofGoof

Premium Member
But remember, there is always going to be a portion of the population that will have natural immunity. And you have to figure that number is between 10-15%.

So even these states that will have 50 or 60% fully vaccinated in the end game add the natural immunity into that number.

If we are talking 1 shot and natural immunity I think most states will be close to that 60-70% in the end
Don’t forget there’s overlap. If 50% of the population is vaccinated in general maybe up to 50% of those who got infected also got vaccinated as well. I would guess maybe slightly less than average because after wave 1 last Spring Covid spikes have been skewed towards younger people who are less likely to be vaccinated and some people already infected may sit out the vaccine or be less quick to go get it since they have some natural immunity to fall back on. So if 10% of the population was naturally infected and tested positive and another 5 - 10% were infected and never got tested and then half those people got the vaccine anyway we are probably looking at somewhere around 7-10% of the unvaccinated population with natural immunity.

The other factor is vaccinated people whose vaccine failed and they aren’t really immune. 5% of those vaccinated may not be fully immune based on a 95% effective vaccine. So if you have 50% of the population vaccinated that means 47.5% actually Immune plus 7 to 10% of the unvaccinated with natural immunity you probably get to 55-58% immune. No clue if that will be enough or not, but it’s still a pretty high number given that covid is much less contagious than a virus like measles.

The other way to look at it is with dropping all the covid mitigations like masks, distancing and group gatherings if there is an outbreak in cases due to not enough people being immune the unvaccinated will very quickly become naturally immune so the number ”immune“ will continue to rise even if nobody else gets vaccinated. Eventually we hit “herd immunity”, just the hard way. If the number of people immune is high enough to snuff out the virus it eventually fails to circulate in the community. My biggest concern with that plan would be kids under 12 not being eligible for the vaccine. Fortunately I live in a county that has well over 70% of adults vaccinated and cases are flatlining but I’d be at least mildly concerned with my unvaccinated son interacting in the community if I lived somewhere with a lower vaccination level.
 

GoofGoof

Premium Member
Is there a portion of the population that has natural immunity to the polio virus? How about natural immunity to measles, mumps, rubella, chicken pox, hepatitis, all the other viruses? Are those members of the population encouraged to get vaccinated against those diseases for their own good as well as for "herd immunity"? Is there a good non-political reason that those who can be vaccinated, are excused? Fear of needles and governmental nano-robot tracking microchips not withstanding.
IMHO if covid were to become endemic and if the virus doesn’t mutate enough to defeat the vaccines the covid vaccine will become like all the others. It will be required for schools so 95% of kids will have it and there will likely be further campaigns to get the rest of the adults vaccinated. This is what happened with Polio and Measles. It took years and decades to snuff them out completely. The one bright spot is Covid is far less contagious so it should be snuffed out with less than the 95% vaccinated we need for measles. Even if covid reaches elimination status in the US as long as International travel exists we will be at risk for travelers bringing covid in from other places for at least several years. I am confident that the world community will act faster to bring the vaccines everywhere than they did for measles and polio but it will still take years and there’s no guarantee enough people take it in every country even when it’s available.
 

DisneyFan32

Well-Known Member
In the Parks
Yes
Don’t forget there’s overlap. If 50% of the population is vaccinated in general maybe up to 50% of those who got infected also got vaccinated as well. I would guess maybe slightly less than average because after wave 1 last Spring Covid spikes have been skewed towards younger people who are less likely to be vaccinated and some people already infected may sit out the vaccine or be less quick to go get it since they have some natural immunity to fall back on. So if 10% of the population was naturally infected and tested positive and another 5 - 10% were infected and never got tested and then half those people got the vaccine anyway we are probably looking at somewhere around 7-10% of the unvaccinated population with natural immunity.

The other factor is vaccinated people whose vaccine failed and they aren’t really immune. 5% of those vaccinated may not be fully immune based on a 95% effective vaccine. So if you have 50% of the population vaccinated that means 47.5% actually Immune plus 7 to 10% of the unvaccinated with natural immunity you probably get to 55-58% immune. No clue if that will be enough or not, but it’s still a pretty high number given that covid is much less contagious than a virus like measles.

The other way to look at it is with dropping all the covid mitigations like masks, distancing and group gatherings if there is an outbreak in cases due to not enough people being immune the unvaccinated will very quickly become naturally immune so the number ”immune“ will continue to rise even if nobody else gets vaccinated. Eventually we hit “herd immunity”, just the hard way. If the number of people immune is high enough to snuff out the virus it eventually fails to circulate in the community. My biggest concern with that plan would be kids under 12 not being eligible for the vaccine. Fortunately I live in a county that has well over 70% of adults vaccinated and cases are flatlining but I’d be at least mildly concerned with my unvaccinated son interacting in the community if I lived somewhere with a lower vaccination level.
Soon there will no more outbreaks for states such as surges or spikes anymore by fall/winter this year.:D:)
 

Register on WDWMAGIC. This sidebar will go away, and you'll see fewer ads.

Top Bottom