Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[GoofGoof]

I am quite excited for Phase 3 possibly being reached tomorrow. But I am a little nervous about the post Memorial Day surge. Call me cautiously optimistic. Finally fireworks can come back.....

I’m interested to see how quickly Disney changes their policy. The funny part is most people probably won’t be happy. If they don’t announce dropping masks indoors immediately after the move to phase 3 some people will be furious. On the flip side if they then change the rule a day later another group of people will be outraged. For me I’ll just pop some pop corn and watch the show

If I were a betting man and the over/under on how long Disney will take to react was set at 1 week I’d probably take the under but I certainly wouldn’t bet my house on it.

 

[JAKECOTCenter]

I’m interested to see how quickly Disney changes their policy. The funny part is most people probably won’t be happy. If they don’t announce dropping masks indoors immediately after the move to phase 3 some people will be furious. On the flip side if they then change the rule a day later another group of people will be outraged. For me I’ll just pop some pop corn and watch the show

If I were a betting man and the over/under on how long Disney will take to react was set at 1 week I’d probably take the under but I certainly wouldn’t bet my house on it.

Oh most people won't be happy. Unless Happily Ever After comes back. Then they'll be persuaded. Certainly I'll be getting emotional after taking fireworks for granted until a year and a half ago

 

[mattpeto]

I‘ve been clear throughout, that I believe with proper measures, we can eradicate covid. Not “give up” when numbers get “good enough.”

You prefer to set your goal posts at a much easier target.

I’ve read plenty of your posts and consider you both intelligent and articulate, but eradicating COVID-19 might simply be unobtainable and unrealistic.

Thanks to the vaccines, we are finally able to control the collateral damage. The people who want to be protected finally has a mechanism far superior to masks and social distancing.

It doesn’t mean we don’t keep an eye on the number and outbreaks, especially for the ineligible vaccinated population (children).

Fortunately the risk for children has always been relatively low and they are about to have a 3 month summer break of classroom gatherings.

It’s just time to move forward.

 

[disneygeek90]

I’m interested to see how quickly Disney changes their policy. The funny part is most people probably won’t be happy. If they don’t announce dropping masks indoors immediately after the move to phase 3 some people will be furious. On the flip side if they then change the rule a day later another group of people will be outraged. For me I’ll just pop some pop corn and watch the show

If I were a betting man and the over/under on how long Disney will take to react was set at 1 week I’d probably take the under but I certainly wouldn’t bet my house on it.

I have DHS Saturday so I’m interested to see what may happen. Either way, I’ll be there. It’s been quite liberating not needing to wear a mask at the office this week.

 

[havoc315]

I do not think we should keep Covid mitigations around until after the virus is eradicated. That to me was never the target. Just like many of us have been saying for almost all of this pandemic we should react to the situation as it occurs and remove restrictions gradually when the situation warrants it. As cases have decreased and vaccinations have increased we have effectively reduced mitigations as a reaction. So far that has not resulted in a noticeable uptick in cases or other negative statistics. So while you view this as “giving up” or settling for something that is “good enough” I see that as following the plan that we’ve always said we should follow. In my opinion you and some others have given up on the vaccination process already and it’s way too early for that. More people are still getting vaccinated every day and all efforts should be exhausted to get as many people in as possible.

You’re entitled to that opinion of “good enough.”

I haven’t given up on vaccination. Not by a long shot. It’s been hugely successful. We have a vaccine that is nearly as effective as the Measles vaccine. So if we take the right measures — Covid should be as rare as the measles.

I believe we should have followed the model of Israel— we are seeing their success.

Will we have the same success here without following that model? I don’t know.

 

[havoc315]

I’ve read plenty of your posts and consider you both intelligent and articulate, but eradicating COVID-19 might simply be unobtainable and unrealistic.

So why is it obtainable and realistic in other countries? And why is it obtainable and realistic in the US for measles, mumps, polio, etc?

When I say eradication, I’ve been consistent: meaning as rare as measles, mumps, polio, etc.

Thanks to the vaccines, we are finally able to control the collateral damage. The people who want to be protected finally has a mechanism far superior to masks and social distancing.

It doesn’t mean we don’t keep an eye on the number and outbreaks, especially for the ineligible vaccinated population (children).

Fortunately the risk for children has always been relatively low and they are about to have a 3 month summer break of classroom gatherings.

It’s just time to move forward.

 

[GoofGoof]

You’re entitled to that opinion of “good enough.”

I haven’t given up on vaccination. Not by a long shot. It’s been hugely successful. We have a vaccine that is nearly as effective as the Measles vaccine. So if we take the right measures — Covid should be as rare as the measles.

I believe we should have followed the model of Israel— we are seeing their success.

Will we have the same success here without following that model? I don’t know.

We are following Israel’s model. We are fast approaching the point where 55% of the US total population is vaccinated, the point where Israel was when their cases went into the final nose dive down. As I said before there isn’t just 1 plan that works for everyone. We don’t have to follow exactly how any other country did things to be successful.

So why is it obtainable and realistic in other countries? And why is it obtainable and realistic in the US for measles, mumps, polio, etc?

When I say eradication, I’ve been consistent: meaning as rare as measles, mumps, polio, etc.

It’s obtainable eventually but that’s not the immediate goal. Take polio as an example, the vaccine started widespread circulation in the US in 1955 but it wasn’t until 1979 that the virus was deemed to be eradicated here. The measles vaccine was rolled out in 1963 but measles wasn’t officially deemed eliminated in the US until 2000. Elimination isn’t eradication, so there are still outbreaks that pop up. In both of those cases when the vaccines were rolled out the disease levels dropped dramatically to an acceptable level before eventually being eradicated or eliminated years later.

It’s very possible that if Covid becomes endemic and sticks around year after year that we will eventually see it eradicated or eliminated by vaccine down the line but that may end up being years from now. We were never going to keep covid mitigations around until full eradication. It’s sensible to dial back mitigations as cases drop and vaccine levels go up. That’s always been the plan.

 

[ifan]

So why is it obtainable and realistic in other countries? And why is it obtainable and realistic in the US for measles, mumps, polio, etc?

When I say eradication, I’ve been consistent: meaning as rare as measles, mumps, polio, etc.

Of course it is obtainable with extreme measures. But it is not realistic given the risk/reward profile. Measles, mumps, polio etc had higher mortality rates or complications at their introduction before tapering off over several decades (looking at the measles mortality index from 1900 onward now.) The hospitalization rates were also much higher.

You measure all the variables, pros/cons, impacts on society, and you decide what is an acceptable amount. For some things the acceptable amount is zero (Ebola!) For others (like flu in the elderly or kids), we mostly just accept a certain number of deaths per year even though there are scientifically ways to eradicate/vaccinate for way more influenza strains than we currently do.

The countries like NZ or Australia that have taken extreme measures for even single digit cases will have an interesting dilemma in 1-2 years when they fully re-open and don't have 100% of population or visitors vaccinated. Will they continue to shut down in 24 months if 5 people in the entire country are infected? I don't know the answer to these questions, but it's not a black/white scenario. My guess is that these countries will have more people infected 2-3 years from now than they ever had during the actual pandemic, and at some point they will be OK with that.

 

[havoc315]

We are following Israel’s model.

No, we aren't. We have not implemented passports. We have not come close to vaccinating 80% of adults. We have not maintained indoor mask mandates.

Stick to facts.

It’s obtainable eventually but that’s not the immediate goal. Take polio as an example, the vaccine started widespread circulation in the US in 1955 but it wasn’t until 1979 that the virus was deemed to be eradicated here. The measles vaccine was rolled out in 1963 but measles wasn’t officially deemed eliminated in the US until 2000. Elimination isn’t eradication, so there are still outbreaks that pop up. In both of those cases when the vaccines were rolled out the disease levels dropped dramatically to an acceptable level before eventually being eradicated or eliminated years later.

You're vastly understating the speed with which those diseases were practically eliminated. (not whether "officially deemed")

Measles by year:

And just like we can now develop vaccines faster than we did 50 years ago, we can also produce them and distribute them faster.

But you keep contradicting yourself:

Israel has practically eliminated Covid. You claim we are following their model and we are going to achieve the same results! But then, in the next breath, you move the goal posts:
Me: We should do the same thing as Israel, and get to the same results!
You: We are going the same thing as Israel, we are going to get to the same results!
Me: Adjusting for population, the equivalent of Israel would be 500 cases and 33 cases per day
You: It's impossible to get those results, we will be successful even if we don't get anywhere close to those results, etc, etc

It’s very possible that if Covid becomes endemic and sticks around year after year that we will eventually see it eradicated or eliminated by vaccine down the line but that may end up being years from now. We were never going to keep covid mitigations around until full eradication.

Just a few weeks ago, you thought I was prematurely saying we were going to drop mitigation faster than Israel. So, my concerns were valid after all?

As I've been saying for a long time, if we simply put in place passport requirements 6 weeks ago, we would likely be where Israel is right now. We would be down to 500 cases per day, and we could easily drop all mitigation right now.
So yes, had we put in place passports from late April to present, Covid would basically be eradicated by now.

It’s sensible to dial back mitigations as cases drop and vaccine levels go up. That’s always been the plan.

And if we haven't given up so early, then Covid would be eradicated by now.

 

[havoc315]

Of course it is obtainable with extreme measures.

I don't think anything Israel has done constitutes an "extreme measure."

 

[GoofGoof]

No, we aren't. We have not implemented passports. We have not come close to vaccinating 80% of adults. We have not maintained indoor mask mandates.

Stick to facts.




You're vastly understating the speed with which those diseases were practically eliminated. (not whether "officially deemed")

Measles by year:

View attachment 561743

And just like we can now develop vaccines faster than we did 50 years ago, we can also produce them and distribute them faster.

But you keep contradicting yourself:

Israel has practically eliminated Covid. You claim we are following their model and we are going to achieve the same results! But then, in the next breath, you move the goal posts:
Me: We should do the same thing as Israel, and get to the same results!
You: We are going the same thing as Israel, we are going to get to the same results!
Me: Adjusting for population, the equivalent of Israel would be 500 cases and 33 cases per day
You: It's impossible to get those results, we will be successful even if we don't get anywhere close to those results, etc, etc







Just a few weeks ago, you thought I was prematurely saying we were going to drop mitigation faster than Israel. So, my concerns were valid after all?

As I've been saying for a long time, if we simply put in place passport requirements 6 weeks ago, we would likely be where Israel is right now. We would be down to 500 cases per day, and we could easily drop all mitigation right now.
So yes, had we put in place passports from late April to present, Covid would basically be eradicated by now.





And if we haven't given up so early, then Covid would be eradicated by now.

Your graph proves the point. It was years later before the virus was fully eradicated which is what you said should be our target. Should we keep all the covid mitigations for years? Isn’t it a better plan to dial back mitigations as the situation dictates. Covid has not been eradicated in Israel. The cases look good and that’s with 60% of their population vaccinated (really started at 55%) and that‘s the part of their “model” we are following. The vaccinations are why their cases look good. They were in full lockdown this Winter and have removed most mitigations by now. As I said repeatedly now we don’t need to follow every detail of how other countries reacted. All that matters is the vaccinations.

You say we prematurely dropped mitigations but how do we know that’s the case? If we see cases drop to measles like levels once the initial vaccination run is over than wouldn’t that mean we dropped mitigations at the appropriate time or possibly later than needed? You are assuming the vaccination effort will fail. I am saying lets see what happens.

 

[GoofGoof]

I don't think anything Israel has done constitutes an "extreme measure."

It’s not and the virus is also not eradicated there.

 

[havoc315]

Your graph proves the point. It was years later before the virus was fully eradicated which is what you said should be our target. Should we keep all the covid mitigations for years?

Never suggested anything like that. I said we should follow the Israel model.

Isn’t it a better plan to dial back mitigations as the situation dictates. Covid has not been eradicated in Israel.

Again, I'll follow their model. Their level of public health measures. 80% of adult vaccination. And the equivalent of 500 cases per day in the US and 33 deaths.

The cases look good and that’s with 60% of their population vaccinated (really started at 55%) and that‘s the part of their “model” we are following. The vaccinations are why their cases look good. They were in full lockdown this Winter and have removed most mitigations by now. As I said repeatedly now we don’t need to follow every detail of how other countries reacted. All that matters is the vaccinations.

No. Vaccinations are fantastic. A critical tool. The most powerful tool. But they are not "all that matters."
In fact -- A big thing that matters, it getting people to take the vaccines. Which is why vaccine passports are so critical.

You say we prematurely dropped mitigations but how do we know that’s the case? If we see cases drop to measles like levels once the initial vaccination run is over than wouldn’t that mean we dropped mitigations at the appropriate time or possibly later than needed? You are assuming the vaccination effort will fail. I am saying lets see what happens.

I'm making no assumptions. I'm saying my fingers are crossed and I'm hoping for the best. You're assuming just assuming the best will happen, if we kinda sorta follow some of the stuff that Israel is doing. I hope you're right, but I wouldn't make that assumption.

 

[havoc315]

It’s not and the virus is also not eradicated there.

Again, I'd be very happy with their level of cases and their level of public health measures.

 

[GoofGoof]

Again, I'd be very happy with their level of cases and their level of public health measures.

Nah, that would be setting your goal posts to an easy target You’ve been clear throughout that eradicating Covid should be the target

I‘ve been clear throughout, that I believe with proper measures, we can eradicate covid. Not “give up” when numbers get “good enough.”

You prefer to set your goal posts at a much easier target.

 

[mattpeto]

It’s not and the virus is also not eradicated there.

And that's the the "giant elephant in the room" IMO @havoc315.

It still is blazing through the world. Even if our vaccinated numbers were higher, eradication just wasn't going to happen worldwide unless you are willing to wait 3 years to a generation.

I would keep vaccinating adults until the July 4th and ship whatever we have overseas. Our kids can wait, this thing is deadly for the elderly.

Just like Jon Snow said, "there is no time for that". It's time to start living again in this country and start helping everyone else heal.

 

[havoc315]

Nah, that would be setting your goal posts to an easy target You’ve been clear throughout that eradicating Covid should be the target

And Israel is clearly on that path.

 

[havoc315]

And that's the the "giant elephant in the room" IMO @havoc315.

It still is blazing through the world.

Take a look at Israel.

Even if our vaccinated numbers were higher, eradication just wasn't going to happen worldwide unless you are willing to wait 3 years to a generation.

I would keep vaccinating adults until the July 4th and ship whatever we have overseas. Our kids can wait, this thing is deadly for the elderly.

Just like Jon Snow said, "there is no time for that". It's time to start living again in this country and start helping everyone else heal.

 

[mattpeto]

And Israel is clearly on that path.

Should Israel not let any foreigners in their country until Covid is eradicated? Should they restrict travel completely?

 

[DisneyCane]

That is how herd immunity works basically.

Whether we have enough immunity for that to happen.... fingers crossed.

But remember, we saw "77% decreases" in Spring 2020 too.
Certainly, the degree of our current decline is largely due to the vaccines. But should not ignore the seasonality of this virus either.
The current decline is not solely due to the vaccines.

For example, in the Spring 2020: Between April 9, 2020 and June 3, 2020, New York had a 85% decline in cases! Between April 9, 2020 and July 15, 2020: New York had a 93% decline in cases!!

Point being, even without vaccines, we would be looking at big big declines right now. The declines are even bigger, because of the vaccines.

Whether we have vaccinated enough to truly eradicate the virus, we won't know until the fall.

Apples and oranges. The vaccines are driving the decline now. Back then it was extreme mitigation.

I saw a poll recently that over 70% of the public in Japan wants them to cancel the games so I think the vast majority of people there probably would be OK with going to the back of the line. It’s way too late to change for this Summer though so even if they switched to a new location they would likely have to delay a year. Not a very good situation for the athletes who spent their whole life training for this

I saw a poll that was 43% cancel and 40% postpone with only 17% in favor of this summer.