Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[CosmicRays]

My biggest issue with the extreme mitigation measures that were done (not talking about things like masks in WDW queues) was that they were all implemented under the assumption that everybody was sick, when, even at the peaks in hot spots, less than 5% were possibly contagious.

By extreme mitigation I'm referring to the "essential business only," "stay at home unless doing an essential activity" or "no indoor dining at all" type of mitigation.

Alot of these seemed to be implemented in name only- I know they were not really followed or practiced by a large majority of the population.

 

[LuvtheGoof]

My friend who is a server at the Olive Garden can attest to that. His location is packed every night with hungry guests , tipping very well.

I went to my favorite steakhouse last night. The waiter said business is still down during the week because they had a heavy draw from business travelers on expense accounts but the weekends have been packed. He said he still does really well on tips even during the week because they are short staffed so even though there are less tables full overall he gets more tables a night. Seemed pretty happy. No masks required anywhere inside for fully vaccinated customers but the staff still had to wear masks. It felt almost like normal.

We have always tipped well for good service, but have been tipping even more during COVID.

 

[havoc315]

In seven weeks, since April 14th, the number of daily cases (seven day rolling average) in the USA is down 77%. It was 16,501 yesterday. It's been a pretty linear slope down. If the same slope continues (I'd expect it to accelerate a little as more get vaccinated), the USA would be down to about 3,800 cases per day (1.15 per 100k) by 7/20.

By that point the downward trajectory should really increase because you will be dealing with a miniscule number of people who are contagious interacting with a continually decreasing number of people who aren't immune. Plus, those 3,800 cases will be severely skewed towards people under 35 based on vaccination rates.

That is how herd immunity works basically.

Whether we have enough immunity for that to happen.... fingers crossed.

But remember, we saw "77% decreases" in Spring 2020 too.
Certainly, the degree of our current decline is largely due to the vaccines. But should not ignore the seasonality of this virus either.
The current decline is not solely due to the vaccines.

For example, in the Spring 2020: Between April 9, 2020 and June 3, 2020, New York had a 85% decline in cases! Between April 9, 2020 and July 15, 2020: New York had a 93% decline in cases!!

Point being, even without vaccines, we would be looking at big big declines right now. The declines are even bigger, because of the vaccines.

Whether we have vaccinated enough to truly eradicate the virus, we won't know until the fall.

 

[Chi84]

We have always tipped well for good service, but have been tipping even more during COVID.

We joke that our tipping habits since COVID are seriously impacting our children’s inheritance.

 

[GimpYancIent]

We joke that our tipping habits since COVID are seriously impacting our children’s inheritance.

What? Children are expecting to have an inheritance in the future?

 

[ABQ]

That is how herd immunity works basically.

Whether we have enough immunity for that to happen.... fingers crossed.

But remember, we saw "77% decreases" in Spring 2020 too.
Certainly, the degree of our current decline is largely due to the vaccines. But should not ignore the seasonality of this virus either.
The current decline is not solely due to the vaccines.

For example, in the Spring 2020: Between April 9, 2020 and June 3, 2020, New York had a 85% decline in cases! Between April 9, 2020 and July 15, 2020: New York had a 93% decline in cases!!

Point being, even without vaccines, we would be looking at big big declines right now. The declines are even bigger, because of the vaccines.

Whether we have vaccinated enough to truly eradicate the virus, we won't know until the fall.

Those New York declines in 2020 were all during lockdown times though. The stay at home order commenced in March and phase 1 of new York's reopening plan didn't go into effect till May, and that was still a highly restrictive phase.
I'd like to think it's vaccinations vs seasonality that are making the greatest impact today.

 

[LuvtheGoof]

We joke that our tipping habits since COVID are seriously impacting our children’s inheritance.

We say that about all the vacations we take!

 

[Parker in NYC]

Those New York declines in 2020 were all during lockdown times though. The stay at home order commenced in March and phase 1 of new York's reopening plan didn't go into effect till May, and that was still a highly restrictive phase.
I'd like to think it's vaccinations vs seasonality that are making the greatest impact today.

It's a useless argument. Turn back before it's too late.

 

[GoofGoof]

Hopefully.

Remember, US 60% isn't the same as Israel 60% -- We have significant geographic inconsistency. And our 55% includes many kids, who are already less likely to spread than adults. They have vaccinated over 80% of adults, we might never hit 70%. They have enforced passports and indoor masks more than us.

So that doesn't mean we won't crush it on the same level. Maybe our numbers are "good enough."

But if we did the things Israel is doing: 80% of adults vaccinated, enforce passports, we probably would eradicate Covid, get it down to under 500 cases per day nationwide. Eventually get it down to under 100 cases per day nationwide.

We can agree to disagree on this. In my opinion a 15 year old is just as likely to spread Covid as an 18 year old or a 45 year old and is probably more likely than a 65+. Just because Israel held back on vaccinating kids certainly does not mean that’s the only way to go. Lots of countries and even states here took different approaches. Some did only first shots and delayed shot 2. Some went strictly by age and some did a mix between age and frequent public exposure.

If the assumption is only adults count if/when we hit 70% of adults vaccinated we would be at 55% of the total population vaccinated even if we don’t count a single dose given to anyone under 18. At the end of March Israel was at 55% with one shot and they reached a very low level of daily cases by then. Technically the 60% in Israel today includes some 16 and 17 year olds too.

 

[havoc315]

Those New York declines in 2020 were all during lockdown times though. The stay at home order commenced in March and phase 1 of new York's reopening plan didn't go into effect till May, and that was still a highly restrictive phase.
I'd like to think it's vaccinations vs seasonality that are making the greatest impact today.

The strongest evidence suggests it is both. The current decline started long before we had any significant vaccination levels.
Seasonality of this virus is VERY strong, including in places that didn’t lock down.

 

[ABQ]

It's a useless argument. Turn back before it's too late.

I was not arguing, not at all.

 

[Parker in NYC]

I was not arguing, not at all.

I was just kidding. I agree with you wholeheartedly.

 

[havoc315]

We can agree to disagree on this. In my opinion a 15 year old is just as likely to spread Covid as an 18 year old or a 45 year old and is probably more likely than a 65+.

???? But the US 12 year-olds are far less likely to spread than 40 year olds. That’s not opinion, that’s fact.

You‘re using American 12-18yos as if they are the equivalent of Israeli 18-100yos.

They aren’t equivalent. Not opinion, it’s fact.

Just because Israel held back on vaccinating kids certainly does not mean that’s the only way to go.

Correct. That’s what I said. Hopefully,even though we haven’t vaccinated as mush as Israel, even though we lifted our mask mandates, even though we have far more geographical inconsistency, hopefully we can achieve the same results.

Lots of countries and even states here took different approaches. Some did only first shots and delayed shot 2. Some went strictly by age and some did a mix between age and frequent public exposure.

If the assumption is only adults count if/when we hit 70% of adults vaccinated we would be at 55% of the total population vaccinated even if we don’t count a single dose given to anyone under 18. At the end of March Israel was at 55% with one shot and they reached a very low level of daily cases by then. Technically the 60% in Israel today includes some 16 and 17 year olds too.

Ok, so how confident are you that we will be down to under 500 cases per day nationwide by August?
As I said, I’m hoping we get there. But you seem far more confident than me.
I‘d say it’s unlikely, but possible, that we are under 500 cases per day nationwide by August 1. (Giving us 2 months to catch up to Israel)
How confident are you that we will be under 500 cases and under 33 deaths per day by 8/1?

 

[Flugell]

My biggest issue with the extreme mitigation measures that were done (not talking about things like masks in WDW queues) was that they were all implemented under the assumption that everybody was sick, when, even at the peaks in hot spots, less than 5% were possibly contagious.

By extreme mitigation I'm referring to the "essential business only," "stay at home unless doing an essential activity" or "no indoor dining at all" type of mitigation.

I understand the frustration but if the infection rate was 5% then that is one in 20 people. So if indoor dining was open with 40 diners then there was the possibility that at least 2 people were infected. Even if it was only one, the other statistic being in hospital or self isolating, then most people, at least in my opinion, would not be willing to mix. So no indoor dining and essential businesses only, combined with staying at home were always going to be the most contentious and most discussed mitigations.
The difference is that one choice potentially saves businesses, which can be supported or replaced, the other choice is one that potentially saves lives or prevents infections which may be mild or severe but the lives can not be replaced. Glad it’s not a decision I had to make but think I would always go for the lives.
Glad that the situation seems to be over and hopefully will never return.

 

[GoofGoof]

???? But the US 12 year-olds are far less likely to spread than 40 year olds. That’s not opinion, that’s fact.

You‘re using American 12-18yos as if they are the equivalent of Israeli 18-100yos.

They aren’t equivalent. Not opinion, it’s fact.



Correct. That’s what I said. Hopefully,even though we haven’t vaccinated as mush as Israel, even though we lifted our mask mandates, even though we have far more geographical inconsistency, hopefully we can achieve the same results.




Ok, so how confident are you that we will be down to under 500 cases per day nationwide by August?
As I said, I’m hoping we get there. But you seem far more confident than me.
I‘d say it’s unlikely, but possible, that we are under 500 cases per day nationwide by August 1. (Giving us 2 months to catch up to Israel)
How confident are you that we will be under 500 cases and under 33 deaths per day by 8/1?

I’m not doing this with you again. You can hope and wish that whatever is happening is just seasonal and not vaccination related and we haven’t done enough and kids don’t matter and then wish wash back and forth and say things are unlikely but still possible and then if it happens you claim you were right and if it doesn’t happen you still claim you were right. Whatever happens will happen.

Right now cases are dropping which is great. We’ve started a major pull back on mitigations and cases are still dropping which is also great. We aren’t done with vaccinations yet and once we are I’m highly confident that when we are it will be enough which is all that matters.

 

[Parker in NYC]

Ok, so how confident are you that we will be down to under 500 cases per day nationwide by August?
As I said, I’m hoping we get there. But you seem far more confident than me.
I‘d say it’s unlikely, but possible, that we are under 500 cases per day nationwide by August 1. (Giving us 2 months to catch up to Israel)
How confident are you that we will be under 500 cases and under 33 deaths per day by 8/1?

I'm pretty confident we will. That is, unless things don't go up again due to various holidays and stupidity.

 

[GoofGoof]

I'm pretty confident we will. That is, unless things don't go up again due to various holidays and stupidity.

I am also pretty confident that we will....unless we don’t. This way I’ve said both and then can claim I was right either way

 

[Parker in NYC]

I am also pretty confident that we will....unless we don’t. This way I’ve said both and then can claim I was right either way

Oh, GoofGoof.

 

[Andrew C]

Right now cases are dropping which is great. We’ve started a major pull back on mitigations and cases are still dropping which is also great. We aren’t done with vaccinations yet and once we are I’m highly confident that when we are it will be enough which is all that matters.

 

[Parker in NYC]

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All I can say is, thank heavens for the vaccines. If we didn't have them by now, I can't even imagine. But I don't have to worry about that!