Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[Horizons '83]

I am surprised that folks have not commented on Joe ditching his signature mask, he has been sans mask lately. What he does is more interesting than what he says.

Eh, I think people are tired of politics in general and how everyone seems to love to get in the weeds on meaningless things like him wearing a mask.

 

[correcaminos]

Eh, I think people are tired of politics in general and how everyone seems to love to get in the weeds on meaningless things like him wearing a mask.

That and we're not supposed to talk politics here anyway so...

 

[Parker in NYC]

Eh, I think people are tired of politics in general and how everyone seems to love to get in the weeds on meaningless things like him wearing a mask.

Now they're tired?

 

[GoofGoof]

Israel's 7 day average is now down to 16 cases per day. That's under 0.2 per 100,000. They are averaging 1 death per day.
Per capita, it would be the same as the US having 528 cases per day nationwide, and about 33 deaths per day nationwide.

Yes, it is possible to virtually eradicate Covid with high level of vaccine adoption and the proper health measures. (and I believe they haven't even started vaccinating kids in Israel yet).

I had seen somewhere that kids start there as early as this week. They were waiting for the study on heart inflammation to start vaccinating kids. Without kids they have been stagnating at 60% of the population with 1 shot, but that appears to be more than enough to crush the virus in Israel. We should be above 55% and approaching 60% of the total population with 1 shot in the US by around July 4. Hopefully that same ballpark works for us too. We do have a Similar amount of natural infections but obviously the US is much larger and diverse so not as easy to get a unified national level.

 

[GoofGoof]

You know that the pandemic is coming quickly to an end when the extremes on either side get more confrontational and start bringing up random stuff from Feb 2020. When there’s nothing left to argue about and you still desperately want to continue the fight you have to invent stuff to be upset about. The end is almost here and for the rest of us it’s a happy time to be celebrated.

 

[danlb_2000]

You know that the pandemic is coming quickly to an end when the extremes on either side get more confrontational and start bringing up random stuff from Feb 2020. When there’s nothing left to argue about and you still desperately want to continue the fight you have to invent stuff to be upset about. The end is almost here and for the rest of us it’s a happy time to be celebrated.

It's just the flu!

 

[Lilofan]

You know that the pandemic is coming quickly to an end when the extremes on either side get more confrontational and start bringing up random stuff from Feb 2020. When there’s nothing left to argue about and you still desperately want to continue the fight you have to invent stuff to be upset about. The end is almost here and for the rest of us it’s a happy time to be celebrated.

My friend who is a server at the Olive Garden can attest to that. His location is packed every night with hungry guests , tipping very well.

 

[GoofGoof]

My friend who is a server at the Olive Garden can attest to that. His location is packed every night with hungry guests , tipping very well.

I went to my favorite steakhouse last night. The waiter said business is still down during the week because they had a heavy draw from business travelers on expense accounts but the weekends have been packed. He said he still does really well on tips even during the week because they are short staffed so even though there are less tables full overall he gets more tables a night. Seemed pretty happy. No masks required anywhere inside for fully vaccinated customers but the staff still had to wear masks. It felt almost like normal.

 

[danlb_2000]

I went to my favorite steakhouse last night. The waiter said business is still down during the week because they had a heavy draw from business travelers on expense accounts but the weekends have been packed. He said he still does really well on tips even during the week because they are short staffed so even though there are less tables full overall he gets more tables a night. Seemed pretty happy. No masks required anywhere inside for fully vaccinated customers but the staff still had to wear masks. It felt almost like normal.

I was listening to story on the news the other day saying that leisure travel is really picking up, but business travel is still really down. Trade shows are going to need to start coming back to get a lot of the business travel back.

 

[Heppenheimer]

I was listening to story on the news the other day saying that leisure travel is really picking up, but business travel is still really down. Trade shows are going to need to start coming back to get a lot of the business travel back.

Disney, at least, is trying to get back in the game:

Primary Care Update: Family Medicine and Pharmacology - MCE Conferences

Continuing Medical Education (CME) for Primary Care in Orlando, Florida - Disney Grand Floridian July 2, 2021 - July 4, 2021. 12 Hours of accredited CME. Half-day sessions. No commercial influence.

www.mceconferences.com

 

[GoofGoof]

I was listening to story on the news the other day saying that leisure travel is really picking up, but business travel is still really down. Trade shows are going to need to start coming back to get a lot of the business travel back.

My company just removed the restrictions on business travel. You had to get VP level approval to travel anywhere up until now. For sales positions we are also slowly bringing back door to door and in person sales as well which were completely eliminated during Covid. Slow return to normal.

Things are still not close to back to normal and I do think some companies will look at all the money saved by eliminating travel and possibly restrict it a little even once we are full back to normal. Trade shows and conventions are slower to return but I think by Fall we could see an uptick. Those things take months to plan so based on the speed of progress today more of the larger scale stuff could be planned to be back in the Fall.

 

[sullyinMT]

My company just removed the restrictions on business travel. You had to get VP level approval to travel anywhere up until now. For sales positions we are also slowly bringing back door to door and in person sales as well which were completely eliminated during Covid. Slow return to normal.

Things are still not close to back to normal and I do think some companies will look at all the money saved by eliminating travel and possibly restrict it a little even once we are full back to normal. Trade shows and conventions are slower to return but I think by Fall we could see an uptick. Those things take months to plan so based on the speed of progress today more of the larger scale stuff could be planned to be back in the Fall.

Same with my wife’s company. They’re back to face-to-face consulting, traveling, etc. Office reopened around Mother’s Day. Relatively small company of ~200 employees scattered around the US and another 40ish centra office folks. They’re also required to be vaccinated as of mid-May.

I just attended what I hope is my last virtual conference. The plan for my field’s biggest CME and trade show is to be in person next May, with a few smaller ones scattered between now and then hosted by state societies.

 

[DisneyFan32]

My company just removed the restrictions on business travel. You had to get VP level approval to travel anywhere up until now. For sales positions we are also slowly bringing back door to door and in person sales as well which were completely eliminated during Covid. Slow return to normal.

Things are still not close to back to normal and I do think some companies will look at all the money saved by eliminating travel and possibly restrict it a little even once we are full back to normal. Trade shows and conventions are slower to return but I think by Fall we could see an uptick. Those things take months to plan so based on the speed of progress today more of the larger scale stuff could be planned to be back in the Fall.

By fall/winter, don't ya think COVID-19 will not be big problem anymore such as no more spikes / surges, as conventions, Macy's Thanksgiving Parade, Halloween events, Christmas events, trade shows, and others will go back to normal by end of the year...?

 

[DisneyCane]

Yes, we have known this for a long time, and have also known that there is no reliable way to know who is "sick".

My biggest issue with the extreme mitigation measures that were done (not talking about things like masks in WDW queues) was that they were all implemented under the assumption that everybody was sick, when, even at the peaks in hot spots, less than 5% were possibly contagious.

By extreme mitigation I'm referring to the "essential business only," "stay at home unless doing an essential activity" or "no indoor dining at all" type of mitigation.

 

[GoofGoof]

My biggest issue with the extreme mitigation measures that were done (not talking about things like masks in WDW queues) was that they were all implemented under the assumption that everybody was sick, when, even at the peaks in hot spots, less than 5% were possibly contagious.

By extreme mitigation I'm referring to the "essential business only," "stay at home unless doing an essential activity" or "no indoor dining at all" type of mitigation.

Those types of mitigations in general lasted only for a few months in the beginning of the pandemic when we didn’t actually know how many people were sick. We didn’t have enough testing to even test people we were pretty sure were positive back then. By June 2020 or earlier the stay at home and essential only orders were dialed back almost everywhere. Some places like CA reimposed during wave 2 but most places never went back to that level.

 

[danlb_2000]

Those types of mitigations in general lasted only for a few months in the beginning of the pandemic when we didn’t actually know how many people were sick. We didn’t have enough testing to even test people we were pretty sure were positive back then. By June 2020 or earlier the stay at home and essential only orders were dialed back almost everywhere. Some places like CA reimposed during wave 2 but most places never went back to that level.

Yeah, it's easy to criticize some of the early measures, but for the states that got hit first, NJ and NY for example, we just didn't know what was safe and what wasn't.

 

[havoc315]

I had seen somewhere that kids start there as early as this week. They were waiting for the study on heart inflammation to start vaccinating kids. Without kids they have been stagnating at 60% of the population with 1 shot, but that appears to be more than enough to crush the virus in Israel. We should be above 55% and approaching 60% of the total population with 1 shot in the US by around July 4. Hopefully that same ballpark works for us too. We do have a Similar amount of natural infections but obviously the US is much larger and diverse so not as easy to get a unified national level.

Hopefully.

Remember, US 60% isn't the same as Israel 60% -- We have significant geographic inconsistency. And our 55% includes many kids, who are already less likely to spread than adults. They have vaccinated over 80% of adults, we might never hit 70%. They have enforced passports and indoor masks more than us.

So that doesn't mean we won't crush it on the same level. Maybe our numbers are "good enough."

But if we did the things Israel is doing: 80% of adults vaccinated, enforce passports, we probably would eradicate Covid, get it down to under 500 cases per day nationwide. Eventually get it down to under 100 cases per day nationwide.

 

[sullyinMT]

Yeah, it's easy to criticize some of the early measures, but for the states that got hit first, NJ and NY for example, we just didn't know what was safe and what wasn't.

We also don’t know, but with the transmissibility of the virus can cautiously assume, 5% might have turned to 10 or 15% in short order. Especially without a robust test and trace system in place. There’s a reason the field hospitals were set up, assuming the worst wasn’t far away.

 

[DisneyCane]

Hopefully.

Remember, US 60% isn't the same as Israel 60% -- We have significant geographic inconsistency. And our 55% includes many kids, who are already less likely to spread than adults. They have vaccinated over 80% of adults, we might never hit 70%. They have enforced passports and indoor masks more than us.

So that doesn't mean we won't crush it on the same level. Maybe our numbers are "good enough."

But if we did the things Israel is doing: 80% of adults vaccinated, enforce passports, we probably would eradicate Covid, get it down to under 500 cases per day nationwide. Eventually get it down to under 100 cases per day nationwide.

In seven weeks, since April 14th, the number of daily cases (seven day rolling average) in the USA is down 77%. It was 16,501 yesterday. It's been a pretty linear slope down. If the same slope continues (I'd expect it to accelerate a little as more get vaccinated), the USA would be down to about 3,800 cases per day (1.15 per 100k) by 7/20.

By that point the downward trajectory should really increase because you will be dealing with a miniscule number of people who are contagious interacting with a continually decreasing number of people who aren't immune. Plus, those 3,800 cases will be severely skewed towards people under 35 based on vaccination rates.

 

[Parker in NYC]

Yeah, it's easy to criticize some of the early measures, but for the states that got hit first, NJ and NY for example, we just didn't know what was safe and what wasn't.

I did.

But no one listened. Oops! Or, they did listen and laughed.