Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[GoofGoof]

As I said, maybe slightly more than 480,000 -- But again, you are using lagging averages.
We had this discussion a couple weeks ago when I said it was dropping rapidly, and you were claiming it was still 1.5 or 2 million per day.

If the rate of decline continues at the current pace, about 25% down per week... then we are looking at:
731,000 for the past week
548,000 for the current week
411,000 for next week
308,000 for the last week in May.
231,000 for early June.

30 days ago, we were at an average of 1.9 million daily first doses. That's a 62% decline in just one month. If we have a similar decline over the next month -- then by mid June, we will be at only 277,000 daily first doses.

As I said, if we flatten out, we will make it. If the decline of the past month continues, then it will be a struggle to make it.

[Per Bloomberg's tracker, we are now almost 3 months behind Israel.. we are at 41.2% "coverage", which they hit on February 22nd).

Nobody was claiming the rate didn’t drop from the peak periods. The current pace is pretty stable with a small decline week over week. When we had that discussion the pace was at 1.5 to 2M so that wasn’t untrue just like nothing I posted about today’s stats is untrue. On April 28 the total adults with 1 shot was 140,792,606 so 5,542,529 for the previous 7 days (4/28 - 5/5) which is an average of 791,790 a day. That means this weeks 731,452 a day average is a decrease of 7.6% week over week. Not down 25%. Much better than that.

So assuming the same 7.6% drop each week
4.73M week ending 5/19
4.37M week ending 5/26
4.04M week ending 6/3
3.73M week ending 6/10
3.45M week ending 6/17
3.19M week ending 6/24
2.95M week ending 7/1

26.46M doses which gets over the 70% target. That is also assuming a constant decline in vaccination rate which is not guaranteed to be the case. It could drop further, it could drop less. You are assuming a steeper drop off but the drop off has actually slowed. Many areas have just started to ramp up their efforts to draw people in through outreach programs and plans are evolving. We also have the prospect soon of full FDA approval for the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines so that may clear an additional hurdle for vaccine hesitancy. The JnJ vaccine coming back may have also helped. Despite some people being nervous they are still using it and it does have appeal to someone who wants the one and done.

 

[GoofGoof]

NYC and Long Island are now offering J and J vaccines at 8 subway and train stations. Giving away a free 1-week metro card with vaccine, or a free round-trip train ticket. There are supposedly long lines to get the vaccine. 1.3% positivity rate here in NY.

Good example of the types of things needed to boost vaccine rates.

 

[lazyboy97o]

Especially in regards to COVID. One of the big unknowns right now is the long term effects if you actually do get it. Everyone is so focused on how sick you get right when you contract it - and that even vaccines seem to make that initial sickness less, so it is no longer a big deal. The studies that are starting to come out about some of the long term effects on people who were healthy to begin with, and got COVID, are not very optimistic. Apparently some are reclassifying it as a vascular disease versus respiratory, because that's where COVID seems to be attacking long term.

Unfortunately, we are going to be talking about COVID for a long time.

I wasn’t even talking about the long term issues. Despite having enough vaccine doses to eliminate SARS-CoV-2 from the US we never set that as a goal. We gave up before ever trying and just accepted it as something that will be endemic. One metric of acceptable spread that seems to get a lot of play is it being like the flu. But the flu and other diseases already strains healthcare systems every winter, so we’d just be adding more on top of that existing strain and it’s looking like this will disproportionately occur in areas that already have inadequate healthcare access. That means we’ll have more strain on system and a need for greater capacity. I understand it’s vindictive, petty and thankfully medicine has greater ethical aspirations, but why should I have to pay, through higher premiums and taxes, for more healthcare capacity for people who “exercised personal responsibility”? Why should I have to wait longer and be treated in a hallway because someone was “personally responsible” and refused a free shot?

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Directly. There are other consequences to continuing to let a disease run rampant. Do we get to refuse to provide funding for increased healthcare needs?

Especially in regards to COVID. One of the big unknowns right now is the long term effects if you actually do get it. Everyone is so focused on how sick you get right when you contract it - and that even vaccines seem to make that initial sickness less, so it is no longer a big deal. The studies that are starting to come out about some of the long term effects on people who were healthy to begin with, and got COVID, are not very optimistic. Apparently some are reclassifying it as a vascular disease versus respiratory, because that's where COVID seems to be attacking long term.

Unfortunately, we are going to be talking about COVID for a long time.

the prime “fear” should be mutations that outrun the vaccines.

I don’t know how that isn’t enough to tow the rope?

But you both bring up very valid issues to consider

you know what I think?? Arms out!!!!

 

[ImperfectPixie]

I wasn’t even talking about the long term issues. Despite having enough vaccine doses to eliminate SARS-CoV-2 from the US we never set that as a goal. We gave up before ever trying and just accepted it as something that will be endemic. One metric of acceptable spread that seems to get a lot of play is it being like the flu. But the flu and other diseases already strains healthcare systems every winter, so we’d just be adding more on top of that existing strain and it’s looking like this will disproportionately occur in areas that already have inadequate healthcare access. That means we’ll have more strain on system and a need for greater capacity. I understand it’s vindictive, petty and thankfully medicine has greater ethical aspirations, but why should I have to pay, through higher premiums and taxes, for more healthcare capacity for people who “exercised personal responsibility”? Why should I have to wait longer and be treated in a hallway because someone was “personally responsible” and refused a free shot?

We have GOT to fix our education system. In 2021, there's no excuse for the lack of understanding how vaccines work and how important they are.

 

[disneygeek90]

While talking about NY, there's more interesting developements with the Yankees cases. FWIW, I believe they all got J&J. I suppose if they weren't being tested daily, they would probably not know they were positive.

 

[DisneyFan32]

Are we gonna make it by July 4th? As NJ will may lose masks for good by August/September?

 

[sullyinMT]

NYC and Long Island are now offering J and J vaccines at 8 subway and train stations. Giving away a free 1-week metro card with vaccine, or a free round-trip train ticket. There are supposedly long lines to get the vaccine. 1.3% positivity rate here in NY.

I wonder if a similar program with the JnJ would work at airports? Get a shot get a gift card to the news stand/coffee shop.

 

[DisneyFan32]

Star Wars Celebration Anaheim 2022 Dates Changing

Lucasfilm's official Star Wars fan event will arrive early.

www.starwars.com

Next year as we will go back to normal for real! Masks and social distancing will be gone soon this year!

 

[havoc315]

Nobody was claiming the rate didn’t drop from the peak periods. The current pace is pretty stable with a small decline week over week. When we had that discussion the pace was at 1.5 to 2M so that wasn’t untrue just like nothing I posted about today’s stats is untrue. On April 28 the total adults with 1 shot was 140,792,606 so 5,542,529 for the previous 7 days (4/28 - 5/5) which is an average of 791,790 a day. That means this weeks 731,452 a day average is a decrease of 7.6% week over week. Not down 25%. Much better than that.

So assuming the same 7.6% drop each week
4.73M week ending 5/19
4.37M week ending 5/26
4.04M week ending 6/3
3.73M week ending 6/10
3.45M week ending 6/17
3.19M week ending 6/24
2.95M week ending 7/1

You keep comparing the wrong numbers -- Of course second doses aren't dropping to the same degree as first doses, because of the 3-4 week lag. 4 weeks ago, first doses were reaching their peak. So 2nd doses are at their peak down.

If you look at the drop in first doses -- Which is what we are talking about here --

The 7 day rolling average as of:
4/11: 1.9 million
4/18: 1.4 million (21% drop)
4/25: 1.1 million (21% drop)
5/1: 875,000 ((20% drop)
5/7: 715,000 (18% drop in 6 days)

So it's not quite 25%, but it is pretty consistently a 20% drop per week. If it flattens out, we are good. If it starts dropping again or continues dropping, it's going to be tough to make it. The math is pretty straightforward.

26.46M doses which gets over the 70% target. That is also assuming a constant decline in vaccination rate which is not guaranteed to be the case. It could drop further, it could drop less.

Agreed -- if it continues to drop 20% per week, we won't make it. If the decline flattens out quickly, we can make it. Again, very straightforward math.

You are assuming a steeper drop off but the drop off has actually slowed.

No, I'm only projecting based on the current trend. You are trying to distort the numbers, by using the 2nd dose numbers (which lag by 3-4 weeks) in order to understate the amount first doses are declining.
Facts are facts -- it's been about 20% per week. Hopefully it levels out.

Many areas have just started to ramp up their efforts to draw people in through outreach programs and plans are evolving. We also have the prospect soon of full FDA approval for the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines so that may clear an additional hurdle for vaccine hesitancy. The JnJ vaccine coming back may have also helped. Despite some people being nervous they are still using it and it does have appeal to someone who wants the one and done.

Agreed... All that is possible.

Which is why I said -- if things level out, we will make it. If the decline of the last month continues, then we won't make it.

 

[seascape]

Are we gonna make it by July 4th? As NJ will may lose masks for good by August/September?

NJ is at just over 7.5 per 100,000. By next week it will be under 7. The drop over the last 14 days is 75%. That is actually 2% higher than yesterday. Anyway, the decrease has to slow down but it will continue and restrictions have to come off sooner as there is no justification for keeping them when the numbers are so low.

 

[GoofGoof]

I wonder if a similar program with the JnJ would work at airports? Get a shot get a gift card to the news stand/coffee shop.

I think it could. I also think they could do similar promotion with the other vaccines. Get the shot today at the subway station and get a free week of rides. Come back in 3-4 weeks and get the 2nd shot and get another free week. A little harder to organize but nothing to stop them from doing it.

You keep comparing the wrong numbers -- Of course second doses aren't dropping to the same degree as first doses, because of the 3-4 week lag. 4 weeks ago, first doses were reaching their peak. So 2nd doses are at their peak down.

If you look at the drop in first doses -- Which is what we are talking about here --

The 7 day rolling average as of:
4/11: 1.9 million
4/18: 1.4 million (21% drop)
4/25: 1.1 million (21% drop)
5/1: 875,000 ((20% drop)
5/7: 715,000 (18% drop in 6 days)

So it's not quite 25%, but it is pretty consistently a 20% drop per week. If it flattens out, we are good. If it starts dropping again or continues dropping, it's going to be tough to make it. The math is pretty straightforward.




Agreed -- if it continues to drop 20% per week, we won't make it. If the decline flattens out quickly, we can make it. Again, very straightforward math.



No, I'm only projecting based on the current trend. You are trying to distort the numbers, by using the 2nd dose numbers (which lag by 3-4 weeks) in order to understate the amount first doses are declining.
Facts are facts -- it's been about 20% per week. Hopefully it levels out.


Agreed... All that is possible.

Which is why I said -- if things level out, we will make it. If the decline of the last month continues, then we won't make it.

I gave you the exact numbers from the CDC site for first doses over the last 14 days. It is what it is and it didn’t drop 20% week over week no matter how many times you say it.

 

[mmascari]

Whatever % we get to will be wildly uneven across the whole US. What good is it if NY and CA have 90% vaccination rates if TN, AL and MS have 35%?

Dystopian future. Travel restrictions between areas with wildly different community spread. Longer term, people fleeing areas of high spread for areas of lower spread.

It will be really good for those places that get high rates. Congrats to them. They earned some freedoms!

Build a wall. Sounds right. Spread on one side, not on the other. Aren't there a bunch of movies with this plot?

Directly. There are other consequences to continuing to let a disease run rampant. Do we get to refuse to provide funding for increased healthcare needs?

I wasn’t even talking about the long term issues. Despite having enough vaccine doses to eliminate SARS-CoV-2 from the US we never set that as a goal. We gave up before ever trying and just accepted it as something that will be endemic. One metric of acceptable spread that seems to get a lot of play is it being like the flu. But the flu and other diseases already strains healthcare systems every winter, so we’d just be adding more on top of that existing strain and it’s looking like this will disproportionately occur in areas that already have inadequate healthcare access. That means we’ll have more strain on system and a need for greater capacity. I understand it’s vindictive, petty and thankfully medicine has greater ethical aspirations, but why should I have to pay, through higher premiums and taxes, for more healthcare capacity for people who “exercised personal responsibility”? Why should I have to wait longer and be treated in a hallway because someone was “personally responsible” and refused a free shot?

Some of those same people are the ones that would let you die on the sidewalk if you couldn't afford care. We don't allow that for obvious reasons. However, we do allow catastrophic bankruptcy because of medial issues. Which is to say, areas that stay at 35% and never get spread under control will have worse economic outcomes. Rampant spread of infectious disease will do that.

the prime “fear” should be mutations that outrun the vaccines.

I don’t know how that isn’t enough to tow the rope?

But you both bring up very valid issues to consider

you know what I think?? Arms out!!!!

Now we're back to dystopian future. Full circle.

 

[havoc315]

I gave you the exact numbers from the CDC site for first doses over the last 14 days. It is what it is.

?? I gave you the exact number of first doses. Rolling average, per the CDC. It is what it is.

Here is the link:

COVID Data Tracker

CDC’s home for COVID-19 data. Visualizations, graphs, and data in one easy-to-use website.

covid.cdc.gov

20% decline per week.... the facts, as per the CDC. It appears to be flatter this week, thankfully!!!
If the flattening continues -- As I keep saying -- we are in good shape.
If we go back to 20% weekly decline -- not such great shape of hitting 70%.

The link is there, the numbers are there. Anybody can see for themself.

 

[DisneyFan32]

I wasn’t even talking about the long term issues. Despite having enough vaccine doses to eliminate SARS-CoV-2 from the US we never set that as a goal. We gave up before ever trying and just accepted it as something that will be endemic. One metric of acceptable spread that seems to get a lot of play is it being like the flu. But the flu and other diseases already strains healthcare systems every winter, so we’d just be adding more on top of that existing strain and it’s looking like this will disproportionately occur in areas that already have inadequate healthcare access. That means we’ll have more strain on system and a need for greater capacity. I understand it’s vindictive, petty and thankfully medicine has greater ethical aspirations, but why should I have to pay, through higher premiums and taxes, for more healthcare capacity for people who “exercised personal responsibility”? Why should I have to wait longer and be treated in a hallway because someone was “personally responsible” and refused a free shot?

Now this we will never get out of the pandemic because new stains no where......is masks and social distancing will go forever because this?

 

[JAKECOTCenter]

How is Orange County doing with vaccinations? Almost to phase 2?

 

[GaBoy]

It will be really good for those places that get high rates. Congrats to them. They earned some freedoms!

Hate to put it like this but you would get to open up and enjoy the freedoms those southern states already enjoy. I think there is a misconception that the entire country locked down. I mean its not like a place is locking down again if it never did in the first place. Actually my family being vaccinated is driven by civic responsibility, not for restrictions to be lifted. I also have a Disney driven alterior motive.

 

[DCBaker]

How is Orange County doing with vaccinations? Almost to phase 2?

At the last presser, Mayor Demings says the county expects to hit 50% w/1 shot sometime this week.

 

[Chomama]

Hate to put it like this but you would get to open up and enjoy the freedoms those southern states already enjoy. I think there is a misconception that the entire country locked down. I mean its not like a place is locking down again if it never did in the first place. Actually my family being vaccinated is driven by civic responsibility, not for restrictions to be lifted. I also have a Disney driven alterior motive.

Oh yes I know. I live in one of them! I was taking the short way of saying what I think will happen. Nothing will change in low vax states. They are already living normally. High vax states will start to join in. Low vax states will have more waves for now but it will burn out eventually. Until then my family will vaccinate, mask and distance when we think it is necessary. I just think some people believe we are going to hit some imaginary wall where some areas have vaccinated most people and others haven’t and then that will lead to new restrictions in those lower areas, vaccine passports or travel bans. It won’t happen. The US is opening up everywhere

 

[GoofGoof]

At the last presser, Mayor Demings says the county expects to hit 50% w/1 shot sometime this week.

Who drops outdoor masks first Universal, Sea World or Disney? I know which one I’m not picking