Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[seascape]

I’d say we don’t need to reach 80% of the population vaccinated to remove restrictions. We would need 95% of the population 12+ to get the vaccine to reach 80% of the population vaccinated. It’s possible we get somewhere between 70 and 80% of eligible Americans to get vaccinated by July. That would get us between 60 and 67% of the total population vaccinated. I think that gets it done. I’d like it to happen sooner, but people are dragging their feet.

We do not need 80% of the population to end this. The original goal the CDC had was 80% with an effective raye of 60%. Then 20 to 25 percent of the rest resolved by natural immunity. In other words 48% effectively vaccinated by immunizations and 20% by catching Covid19. Today we are at 35% with 95% effectiveness and 14% more with 80% or 44.45% immunized and 10% from catching it. We are getting very close to where the CDC said we needed to be to end this. In fact we probably are will over 10% of the population having caught Covid19 and only 3.5% needed to reach the immunization numbers the CDC originally wanted. That is why NJ has seen a 73% drop in cases in 2 weeks.

 

[bryanfze55]

Let’s say that is true. What’s the endgame then?
Do we just reopen without meeting whatever number is required for herd immunity?

Do we require vaccine passports ?

It seems to me no matter what we do a large portion of people are going to be very unhappy.

Unhappy means that it will take a long time to implement a meaningful solution.

So basically unless we are willing to tick off a large subset of the population we are stuck in a holding pattern.

Yes, you re-open without herd immunity... Once every person has had adequate time to get a vaccine. Even Fauci is saying herd immunity is probably out of reach given vaccine hesitancy. Vaccine passports are certainly one option for things like flying, concerts, or cruises - at least for the interim.

 

[Tony the Tigger]

So basically unless we are willing to tick off a large subset of the population we are stuck in a holding pattern.

That would appear to be the case.

 

[Trauma]

There is certainty there will be more variants, it's just a matter of whether or not they are worse and where they are in the world before they get here, and if the new ones are resistant to the vaccines. That is nothing like the probability of an asteroid hitting earth.

Depends, and probably would vary from location to location. 80% across the US means little if a town in Arkansas is only 30%. I would want to see the new infections and deaths in my area.

Oops.

I understand why some people want that, but I resent it. It shouldn't be necessary, and it's not so easy to spell out. We can guess what's going to happen between now and July, but we can't account for the unforeseen. Plenty of unforeseen has happened already.

I agree with you on those, they make no sense. Those folks would appear to be as misinformed as those who don't think they need one in a supermarket (though obviously less harmful.)

Oops.

Ok great found one. You are the person I need honest answers from because you scare me as much as the anti vax crew.

See I’m on team vaccine.

Can you please spell out your exact metrics to return to normal. Whatever number or numbers you would want to see to return to normal.

Also what is the plan if a large enough group of people refuse to vaccinate to achieve those metrics?

Edit to explain why you scare me: Because I don’t think with current vaccination rates we will reach metrics that you would be satisfied with for a VERY long time.

 

[drizgirl]

If we're actually at something that looks like herd immunity, hopefully the discussion will be a single page.

Good one! I'm stocking up on popcorn for the entertaining reading when it happens.

 

[hopemax]

Yeah but I know many people here say that restrictions will never be lifted so why get vaccinated.

So honest question, does anyone object to all restrictions being lifted once a vaccination rate of 80% of total pollution is achieved.

I don’t want to hear but well yes but case counts and deaths blah blah. Yeah that’s great and all but we need a simple number that people who can’t even understand basic science can lock in on as a goal.

The endgame needs to be spelled out clearly and specifically.

Lol, at the autocorrect. More seriously, as great as US, Israel and UK vaccinations are, the pan in "pandemic" means that until the global population also reaches those numbers, we won't be able to declare mission accomplished, once and for all. It means that we will be able to set aside restrictions, most of the time. But we have to be mindful that the next couple of years, something could change that means targeted mitigations. The highly populated countries are where I would continue to expect the opportunity for VOCs to originate and those countries have enough visitors to the US, directly, or through an intermediate place like London or Tokyo, that it would find a way into the US. FL, TX worried about Zika although other parts of the US didn't really need to. Things like that. But as we've seen from the disingenuous usage of "2 weeks to slow the spread so why are we still worried about this virus." If anywhere has to do something for any period of time, it will be more trashing of experts and leaders. Americans will take the number as an absolute, and ignore the asterisk that accompanies anything Disney... "terms and conditions may change at any time."

ETA: 70, 80% whatever the number, it's fine, but it is less important than Americans understanding that, even if the possibility is small, things could change whenever you are dealing with a new virus. The timeline for stability is more than the 14 months we've been living through.

 

[DisneyFan32]

I'm worried the new future variants will resistant vaccines anytime soon..... Is that really gonna happen in the future?

 

[GoofGoof]

I love your optimism. Truly. But I don’t know that your thresholds are doable. Too much vaccine hesitancy. I’m sure some of that will wane but certainly a large amount of it won’t.

70% of adults is doable by July. Biden set the goal as 70% of adults by July 4th and we all know his goals have been relatively safe and conservative so far. This is probably the most aggressive he has set, but still very doable. Right now we are at 59% of adults with at least 1 shot or 151M people. To get to 70% we need to get to 178M so 27M more adults to go. There’s 55 days until July 4 so we would have to average 490,000 new shots a day to hit that number by Juiy 4. This past week we average close to 800,000 new shots a day, much off the peak pace from a month ago, but still well above the pace needed to get to 70%. Even if that pace drops off some (it probably will) we should hit 70%. If the 800K a day pace actually continued we would hit 70% of adults with 1 shot by June 14.

One thing we have going for us is that there are still a large number of vaccine hesitant people left to go. If you look at every major poll done for months now we pretty much see 18-20% of those polled say they will never get the vaccine. Those people are a lost cause. They are either anti-vax or politically motivated or have some other reason they will never get the vaccine. We can pretty much ignore them. The people left that we can reach are the vaccine hesitant and the indifferent. These people aren’t fundamentally opposed to the vaccines they are either still skeptical or they don't really see a strong need. These people can be reached. It just takes time to reach out and convince them.

In this latest Gallup poll 57% of Americans say they got the vaccine, 18% say they still will and 25% say they won’t. If we get most of those 18% over the finish line we will be over 70%.

In U.S., More Worry About Vaccine Demand Than Supply

Americans are largely satisfied with the coronavirus vaccine rollout and are less worried about the availability of vaccines than they are about waning public demand.

news.gallup.com

 

[drizgirl]

Let’s say that is true. What’s the endgame then?
Do we just reopen without meeting whatever number is required for herd immunity?

Do we require vaccine passports ?

It seems to me no matter what we do a large portion of people are going to be very unhappy.

Unhappy means that it will take a long time to implement a meaningful solution.

So basically unless we are willing to tick off a large subset of the population we are stuck in a holding pattern.

I think the end game is that restrictions stay in place until enough people ignore them and thus necessitate a change in policy merely to save face and appear to retain some credibility.

 

[ImperfectPixie]

I'm worried the new future variants will resistant vaccines anytime soon..... Is that really gonna happen in the future?

We just don't know. But we DO know that the vaccines can be very quickly modified if they need to be. Don't worry.

 

[danlb_2000]

I mean this truly. You are the best , but don’t worry you don’t need to ask goof goof about an asteroid. Nothing is coming.

I have a ton of DVC points stored up, when this is over and you can return to Disney without a mask let me know what resort you want to stay at. I would like nothing more than for them to welcome you home.

Well played.

 

[Tom P.]

I think the end game is that restrictions stay in place until enough people ignore them and thus necessitate a change in policy merely to save face and appear to retain some credibility.

Restrictions aren't staying in place *now*. They are steadily being removed day-by-day. Even states like New York and California are moving to lessen restrictions. Even people like Fauci are now talking about relaxing them. In a couple of months, you're basically not going to have any restrictions left anywhere except possibly some indoor mask mandates.

 

[danlb_2000]

Yeah but I know many people here say that restrictions will never be lifted so why get vaccinated.

So honest question, does anyone object to all restrictions being lifted once a vaccination rate of 80% of total pollution is achieved.

I don’t want to hear but well yes but case counts and deaths blah blah. Yeah that’s great and all but we need a simple number that people who can’t even understand basic science can lock in on as a goal.

The endgame needs to be spelled out clearly and specifically.

I would be happy with 80%, the problem is that a lot of people who are not getting vaccinated are also not being effected by restrictions, because either they have already been lifted in their area or they just don't care, so "get vaccinated and we will lift restrictions" isn't really an incentive.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I’d say we don’t need to reach 80% of the population vaccinated to remove restrictions. We would need 95% of the population 12+ to get the vaccine to reach 80% of the population vaccinated. It’s possible we get somewhere between 70 and 80% of eligible Americans to get vaccinated by July. That would get us between 60 and 67% of the total population vaccinated. I think that gets it done. I’d like it to happen sooner, but people are dragging their feet.

my problem is this is no longer a supply/coordination issue.

why lower the bar? this isn’t a hill that can’t be climbed. But all the “experts” need to just get the arm out.

 

[ImperfectPixie]

I would be happy with 80%, the problem is that a lot of people who are not getting vaccinated are also not being effected by restrictions, because either they have already been lifted in their area or they just don't care.

Bingo. The "already been lifted" part is where I think we're rushing things.

 

[Patcheslee]

Purdue University will not require vaccination this coming fall, but those that opt out will face regular testing like last year. Here's the kicker the University president put in as well:
"The higher the percentage of us all who chose vaccination, the more open campus can be and there may be activities we can make available to those vaccinated, but not those who decline," Daniels said.

 

[ImperfectPixie]

Purdue University will not require vaccination this coming fall, but those that opt out will face regular testing like last year. Here's the kicker the University president put in as well:
"The higher the percentage of us all who chose vaccination, the more open campus can be and there may be activities we can make available to those vaccinated, but not those who decline," Daniels said.

Smart guy to use FOMO to his advantage!

 

[danlb_2000]

Bingo. The "already been lifted" part is where I think we're rushing things.

.. and a lot of those places aren't likely to put restrictions back in place if cases start going up again.

 

[ImperfectPixie]

.. and a lot of those places aren't likely to put restrictions back in place if cases start going up again.

Agreed.

 

[Heppenheimer]

So I got my 14 year old a vaccine appointment for Friday so hopefully that CDC approval comes through

They are doing a vaccine clinic at his middle school on May 20 but he said he wanted to go as soon as possible so Friday it is.

My sister just posted a pic of her 15 and 12 year old after they got their vaccine today in PA. I didn't even know they started with that age group yet, much less how she got them in so quick.