Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[DisneyCane]

Seems like older Americans are sufficiently scared of the virus to get the vaccine regardless of their political beliefs. After a year seeing their friends and peers dying, they know Covid isn’t a hoax.
But younger “Covid is a hoax” Americans still don’t see the virus as a real threat, so are refusing vaccines.

I’m not super hopeful it will happen, but maybe there will be a shift towards stronger carrot/stick that will actually a further push towards vaccination.
Or, not that I’m hoping for it, but maybe you’ll get some major outbreaks in low vaccination communities that will push rural governments to push vaccination more aggressively. That’s a very realistic possibility come October/November with extraordinarily low transmission in high vaccination communities, but significant outbreaks in other areas.

The opposite side - success: San Francisco, 1.5 million people. 72% of adults already vaccinated. Cases down to about 30 per day.

Under 40 is a huge issue with vaccine acceptance regardless of any other factors. Based on actual vaccination data it seems like 65+ will almost all get vaccinated (85%+) regardless of any other beliefs or demographics. Under 40 is not very motivated at all regardless of any beliefs or demographic factors and 40-65 is probably following the polling pretty closely, maybe a little more acceptance in the older of that group.

Short of forcing vaccinations or $1,000+ payments to get vaccinated, I don't see how you are going to motivate the under 40 crowd to get out and get vaccinated. As I've said before, I don't think a large number are "anti-COVID vaccination." It's just that they are ambivalent and don't want to be bothered when they don't see COVID as a high risk to themselves.

 

[ABQ]

In relation to reaching herd immunity in some areas and not in others, we now have 10 states where over 50% of the total population have received at least 1 dose. Those states are already at rates of over 2/3 of adults getting their first dose and the grind continues. If we go down to 45%+ it’s 21 states over that percent.

I like your positive outlook on this, but, that's not was generates mouse clicks, so I'm absolutely certain articles like this will dominate the next news cycle. As doom and gloom sells.
Reaching 'herd immunity' is unlikely in the U.S.

 

[DisneyFan32]

I like your positive outlook on this, but, that's not was generates mouse clicks, so I'm absolutely certain articles like this will dominate the next news cycle. As doom and gloom sells.
Reaching 'herd immunity' is unlikely in the U.S.

I'm scared about fall/winter because this, this means people have to wear masks forever? Is we are really never herd immunity thanks to future new variants and anti vaxxs? Is we will EVER get herd immunity this year? Is the pandemic is still going on USA for years...? Is this is doom and gloom sells? I'm scared about this.

 

[ImperfectPixie]

I'm scared about fall/winter because this, this means people have to wear masks forever? Is we are really never herd immunity thanks to future new variants and anti vaxxs? Is we will EVER get herd immunity this year? Is the pandemic is still going on USA for years...?

No masks forever...the anti-vaxxers and possible variants may make them necessary for a little longer than we'd like, but they will go away. It's just a question of when.

 

[havoc315]

I like your positive outlook on this, but, that's not was generates mouse clicks, so I'm absolutely certain articles like this will dominate the next news cycle. As doom and gloom sells.
Reaching 'herd immunity' is unlikely in the U.S.

I was about to post that link.

Goes right to what I said yesterday. We are “settling” for good enough instead of taking the steps necessary to reach herd immunity — vaccine passports, mandatory vaccinations, etc.

Some parts of the country will be better protected than others.

 

[DisneyFan32]

Reaching 'herd immunity' is unlikely in the U.S.
^ Yeah I don't like this news I just read: It says it will unlikely to reach herd immunity by this year. This pandemic will keep in USA for years.. Is we WILL get to herd immunity soon. Is this news is doom and gloom? By fall/winter is NYC will won't have COVID-19 problems anymore when I'll visit NYC soon again with no mask and social distancing?

 

[DisneyCane]

Using the 4/23-4/29 data that I used a couple of days ago to generate the cases by age chart, I created a chart that shows cases per 100k by age group (in red) with the percent of that age group that had at least one vaccine shot as of 4/29 (in green). If this data doesn't convince people that the vaccines prevent infections then nothing will. Children under 15 either are somewhat resistant to infection or don't get tested at the same rate because a much higher percentage are asymptomatic. For 85+ I'd imagine a large percentage of the unvaccinated are very isolated or in nursing homes where the vast majority of contacts they have are with vaccinated people who are also taking other precautions.

 

[ImperfectPixie]

Reaching 'herd immunity' is unlikely in the U.S.
^ Yeah I don't like this news I just read: It says it will unlikely to reach herd immunity by this year. This pandemic will keep in USA for years.. Is we WILL get to herd immunity soon. Is this news is doom and gloom?

Don't worry...we'll get there...we just don't know quite when yet. Hang in there, friend. Sending you big hugs.

 

[DisneyFan32]

Don't worry...we'll get there...we just don't know quite when yet. Hang in there, friend. Sending you big hugs.

Is this news is unpredicted?
Reaching 'herd immunity' is unlikely in the U.S.

 

[ImperfectPixie]

Is this news is unpredicted?
Reaching 'herd immunity' is unlikely in the U.S.

What they mean is that instead of being eliminated completely, COVID may wind up being like the seasonal flu. Something that makes some people sick every year, but that we get vaccinations for.

 

[DisneyFan32]

What they mean is that instead of being eliminated completely, COVID may wind up being like the seasonal flu. Something that makes some people sick every year, but that we get vaccinations for.

Is will there bad spikes, waves or we will getting a massive spike every year if it's seasonal COVID-19? Is the masks and social distancing is gonna stay forever? So they will may reach herd immunity maybe soon this year?

 

[ImperfectPixie]

Is will there bad spikes, waves or we will getting a massive spike every year if it's seasonal COVID-19? Is the masks and social distancing is gonna stay forever?

Masks and social distancing won't stay forever.

We already have effective vaccines, and the labs are working on making better treatments so that if we do catch COVID, we don't get as sick. These are very powerful tools and even if we can't eliminate COVID completely, we WILL get it down to a very manageable level at some point...we just don't know exactly when yet, and I don't think anyone wants to speculate about that too much because we'd all rather reach herd immunity and eliminate COVID. A manageable level means no more massive spikes, and no more masks or social distancing.

Don't worry so much - we're going to get there, and masks and social distancing will go away at some point.

 

[DisneyFan32]

Masks and social distancing won't stay forever.

We already have effective vaccines, and the labs are working on making better treatments so that if we do catch COVID, we don't get as sick. These are very powerful tools and even if we can't eliminate COVID completely, we WILL get it down to a very manageable level at some point...we just don't know exactly when yet, and I don't think anyone wants to speculate about that too much because we'd all rather reach herd immunity and eliminate COVID. A manageable level means no more massive spikes, and no more masks or social distancing.

Don't worry so much - we're going to get there, and masks and social distancing will go away at some point.

So that's means If I'm already vaccinated, will I will never get COVID-19 ever? And how long I'll be vaccinated to protect from COVID-19 for year or years?

 

[ImperfectPixie]

So that's means If I'm already vaccinated, will I will never get COVID-19 ever? And how long I'll be vaccinated to protect from COVID-19 for year or years?

If you're already vaccinated, the chances of you catching COVID are very very small.

They aren't 100% sure if we're going to need yearly booster shots or not - they're studying that information right now.

 

[Heppenheimer]

Speaking of pediatric vaccine trials, it looks like Pfizer has now also started testing down to age 6 months (this press release is over a month old, but I missed the news that their trial had started in younger children):

Pfizer-BioNTech Announce Positive Topline Results of Pivotal COVID-19 Vaccine Study in Adolescents | Pfizer

In participants aged 12-15 years old, BNT162b2 demonstrated 100% efficacy and robust antibody responses, exceeding those reported in trial of vaccinated 16-25 year old participants in an earlier analysis, and was well tolerated The companies plan to submit these data to the U.S. Food and Drug...

www.pfizer.com

I think Moderna already has a head-start on this age group:

ClinicalTrials.gov

clinicaltrials.gov

From unofficial rumblings I've heard, if absolutely everything goes right and the data accumulates faster than expected (which was the case with the vaccine trials in adults), Moderna could possibly submit for EAU as early as this fall for ages 12 down to 6 months, but early next year is far more likely. Interesting, though, they seem to using antibody response as their primary end-point, whereas protection from actual observed cases of COVID-19 is only secondary outcome. I wonder if this is a deliberate choice that may allow them to apply for the EAU earlier, since they know the effective antibody levels in adults. They may argue that reaching target antibody levels is an effective proxy for immunity, and this would probably give them desirable results faster.... or maybe not, who knows.

 

[havoc315]

Speaking of pediatric vaccine trials, it looks like Pfizer has now also started testing down to age 6 months (this press release is over a month old, but I missed the news that their trial had started in younger children):

Pfizer-BioNTech Announce Positive Topline Results of Pivotal COVID-19 Vaccine Study in Adolescents | Pfizer

In participants aged 12-15 years old, BNT162b2 demonstrated 100% efficacy and robust antibody responses, exceeding those reported in trial of vaccinated 16-25 year old participants in an earlier analysis, and was well tolerated The companies plan to submit these data to the U.S. Food and Drug...

www.pfizer.com

I think Moderna already has a head-start on this age group:

ClinicalTrials.gov

clinicaltrials.gov

From unofficial rumblings I've heard, if absolutely everything goes right and the data accumulates faster than expected (which was the case with the vaccine trials in adults), Moderna could possibly submit for EAU as early as this fall for ages 12 down to 6 months, but early next year is far more likely. Interesting, though, they seem to using antibody response as their primary end-point, whereas protection from actual observed cases of COVID-19 is only secondary outcome. I wonder if this is a deliberate choice to that may allow them to apply for the EAU earlier, since they know the effective antibody levels in adults. They may argue that reaching the antibody levels is an effective proxy for immunity, and this would probably give them desirable results faster.... or maybe not, who knows.

Yes, I suspect waiting for observed cases would take too long.

Young kids are less likely to get infected to start with. Combined with a greatly reduced National case level, it could take a very long time to get enough observed cases.

And it’s my understanding that the standard for expanding an EUA is different than getting the EUA to start with. We already have ample evidence of vaccine efficacy and safety.
The study of children is more confirmatory and to insure there are no wild cards.

 

[Kevin_W]

And it’s my understanding that the standard for expanding an EUA is different than getting the EUA to start with. We already have ample evidence of vaccine efficacy and safety.
The study of children is more confirmatory and to insure there are no wild cards.

Which begs the question why we haven't heard a peep from the FDA in ~4 weeks since Pfizer submitted for 12-15 year-olds.

Edit to add, Yahoo says possibly this week. So here's holding out hope.

 

[SorcererMC]

Under 40 is a huge issue with vaccine acceptance regardless of any other factors. Based on actual vaccination data it seems like 65+ will almost all get vaccinated (85%+) regardless of any other beliefs or demographics. Under 40 is not very motivated at all regardless of any beliefs or demographic factors and 40-65 is probably following the polling pretty closely, maybe a little more acceptance in the older of that group.

Short of forcing vaccinations or $1,000+ payments to get vaccinated, I don't see how you are going to motivate the under 40 crowd to get out and get vaccinated. As I've said before, I don't think a large number are "anti-COVID vaccination." It's just that they are ambivalent and don't want to be bothered when they don't see COVID as a high risk to themselves.

Community outreach, mobile units, ease of access by convenient walk-ins, and stronger public health messaging should all help address complacency. Maybe some old-fashioned peer pressure among family and friends (I don't believe shaming is necessary). We don't know yet if most schools and employers will require it; some universities are already doing it. Another motivating factor is desire to travel - something like 70% of Americans are planning to take a vacation this summer.

 

[ImperfectPixie]

Community outreach, mobile units, ease of access by convenient walk-ins, and stronger public health messaging should all help address complacency. Maybe some old-fashioned peer pressure among family and friends (I don't believe shaming is necessary). We don't know yet if most schools and employers will require it; some universities are already doing it. Another motivating factor is desire to travel - something like 70% of Americans are planning to take a vacation this summer.

I say we get Sarah McLachlan to step in and make a PSA. That'll get 'em.

 

[DisneyFan32]

@ImperfectPixie by fall/winter comes will be back to normal with normal events like HHN, WDW Halloween event, Fright Fest (Six Flags parks), Macy's Thanksgiving Parade, etc...with no masks and social distancing anymore?