Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

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havoc315

Well-Known Member
GoofGoof said:
For Disney option 2 only happens when cases and the Covid situation dictate it does. If we get less than 60% of the population vaccinated it is going to take a lot longer. Eventually we can still reach herd immunity and the restrictions get lifted but it will take months longer. Most likely the Summer at WDW gets lost. Hopefully they make some progress by Oct 1 but who knows.
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Is that Goofgoof or me?? You suddenly sound more pessimistic than me.

My “target” is 60% of the population vaccinated as well but the reality is, we don’t know exactly what percentage will bring herd immunity. It could be less, could be more.

Further, there is a good chance we will have dramatic case reduction, even if we don’t reach herd immunity.
Whether I agree with the strategy or not, we may get to a point where both Orange County and WDW say, “good enough... lift restrictions”

But as I’ve said for a while, I continue to expect WDW to be largely “abnormal” through the summer. They may blame Covid, but I suspect there are other factors at play as they really want to reset with the new fiscal year and anniversary.
 
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DCBaker

Premium Member
"American tourists who have been fully vaccinated against Covid-19 will be able to visit the European Union over the summer, the head of the bloc’s executive body said in an interview with The New York Times on Sunday, more than a year after shutting down nonessential travel from most countries to limit the spread of the coronavirus.

The fast pace of vaccination in the United States, and advanced talks between authorities there and the European Union over how to make vaccine certificates acceptable as proof of immunity for visitors, will enable the European Commission, the executive branch of the European Union, to recommend a switch in policy that could see trans-Atlantic leisure travel restored.

“The Americans, as far as I can see, use European Medicines Agency-approved vaccines,” Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, said Sunday in an interview with The Times in Brussels. “This will enable free movement and the travel to the European Union.

“Because one thing is clear: All 27 member states will accept, unconditionally, all those who are vaccinated with vaccines that are approved by E.M.A.,” she added. The agency, the bloc’s drugs regulator, has approved all three vaccines being used in the United States, namely the Moderna, Pfizer/BioNTech and Johnson & Johnson shots."

"Ms. von der Leyen did not offer a timeline on when exactly tourist travel might open up or details on how it would occur. But her comments are a top-level statement that the current travel restrictions are set to change on the basis of vaccination certificates."

www.nytimes.com

E.U. Set to Let Vaccinated U.S. Tourists Visit This Summer (Published 2021)

The head of the European Commission said the bloc would switch policy, under certain conditions, after more than a year of mostly banning nonessential travel.
www.nytimes.com www.nytimes.com
 
D

DisneyCane

Well-Known Member
Patcheslee said:
The 16-24 and 25-34 age groups have seen a steady increase in 1st dose of 2 series. Others have slowly decreased as they've moved into the completed column. Good news is no age group has shown a stop in 1st doses yet. Even in the 85+ group there were an additional 1000 people started.
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Here is my calculation of percentage of each age group that has been vaccinated (at least one dose) so far:

Age% Vaccinated
16-24
17.9%​
25-34
23.8%​
35-44
33.6%​
45-54
41.9%​
55-64
58.6%​
65-74
84.9%​
75-84
84.2%​
85+
70.4%​
Total
39.5%​

65+ combined is 82.7%. 16-24 is really slightly higher as my population data is 15-24 so there are some ineligible people in there.
 
Chomama

Chomama

Well-Known Member
DisneyCane said:
Here is my calculation of percentage of each age group that has been vaccinated (at least one dose) so far:

Age% Vaccinated
16-24
17.9%​
25-34
23.8%​
35-44
33.6%​
45-54
41.9%​
55-64
58.6%​
65-74
84.9%​
75-84
84.2%​
85+
70.4%​
Total
39.5%​

65+ combined is 82.7%. 16-24 is really slightly higher as my population data is 15-24 so there are some ineligible people in there.
Click to expand...
Looks like outreach to >50 is going to need to ramp up. I have definitely noticed a more cavalier attitude to the vaccine now that vulnerable populations are mostly vaccinated.
 
GoofGoof

GoofGoof

Premium Member
havoc315 said:
Is that Goofgoof or me?? You suddenly sound more pessimistic than me.

My “target” is 60% of the population vaccinated as well but the reality is, we don’t know exactly what percentage will bring herd immunity. It could be less, could be more.

Further, there is a good chance we will have dramatic case reduction, even if we don’t reach herd immunity.
Whether I agree with the strategy or not, we may get to a point where both Orange County and WDW say, “good enough... lift restrictions”

But as I’ve said for a while, I continue to expect WDW to be largely “abnormal” through the summer. They may blame Covid, but I suspect there are other factors at play as they really want to reset with the new fiscal year and anniversary.
Click to expand...
I did say IF not that I thought that would happen. I have plenty of confidence we still can get close to 60% of the population vaccinated and even as soon as early June. We still averaged 1.3M first shots a day for the past 7 days. We have 140M people with at least 1 shot already and at a pace of 1.3M first shots it would take 45 more days to get to 60% of the population vaccinated so first week of June. The pace may drop further with adults but then we add in 12-15 and that should give us a boost back up. Getting more teens done should also have a big impact on spread too since then tend to be more mobile than older adults. No reason the Summer can’t be saved. All hope isn’t lost. Even at 55% instead of 60% that may be enough and could be reached by end of May at current pace. Hard to know until we get there.

For WDW, we are seeing more and more of a Summer ramp up. It won’t be like pre-Covid times, but they recently announced another resort coming back July 1, extended hours in May and June and for the first time in a long time started posting jobs externally to bring in more workers. In at least some positions all of the furloughed workers are back and with the college program still on hold they are hiring more workers externally. It’s a good sign Disney is expecting a major ramp up in crowds and attendance for the Summer. EPCOT’s hours extended to 10PM has a lot of people speculating they get the first night show back. Lots of rumors on other entertainment possibly returning too. It seems they are targeting around July 1 as the big ramp up including the July 4th holiday. That May coincide with Biden‘s ”return to normal” for Juiy 4th and Orange County saying no masks once we cross 50% vaccinated. Distancing on rides is mostly gone but could outdoor distancing or maybe even outdoor masks be next? I don’t think it will be rushed but if there is a major shift away from Covid safety stuff for outdoor activities Disney could jump onboard.
 
disneygeek90

disneygeek90

Well-Known Member
GoofGoof said:
I did say IF not that I thought that would happen. I have plenty of confidence we still can get close to 60% of the population vaccinated and even as soon as early June. We still averaged 1.3M first shots a day for the past 7 days. We have 140M people with at least 1 shot already and at a pace of 1.3M first shots it would take 45 more days to get to 60% of the population vaccinated so first week of June. The pace may drop further with adults but then we add in 12-15 and that should give us a boost back up. Getting more teens done should also have a big impact on spread too since then tend to be more mobile than older adults. No reason the Summer can’t be saved. All hope isn’t lost. Even at 55% instead of 60% that may be enough and could be reached by end of May at current pace. Hard to know until we get there.

For WDW, we are seeing more and more of a Summer ramp up. It won’t be like pre-Covid times, but they recently announced another resort coming back July 1, extended hours in May and June and for the first time in a long time started posting jobs externally to bring in more workers. In at least some positions all of the furloughed workers are back and with the college program still on hold they are hiring more workers externally. It’s a good sign Disney is expecting a major ramp up in crowds and attendance for the Summer. EPCOT’s hours extended to 10PM has a lot of people speculating they get the first night show back. Lots of rumors on other entertainment possibly returning too. It seems they are targeting around July 1 as the big ramp up including the July 4th holiday. That May coincide with Biden‘s ”return to normal” for Juiy 4th and Orange County saying no masks once we cross 50% vaccinated. Distancing on rides is mostly gone but could outdoor distancing or maybe even outdoor masks be next? I don’t think it will be rushed but if there is a major shift away from Covid safety stuff for outdoor activities Disney could jump onboard.
Click to expand...
Let’s take the plexiglass down in rides while we’re at it.
 
GoofGoof

GoofGoof

Premium Member
Magic Feather said:
Simply looking at a random sample of booking dates, it's becoming clear that consumer for confidence with travel is starting to soar well beyond WDW's current reduced capacity. Surprised that something hasn't already gave yet.
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They did add back cancelation fees for trips booked through Disney starting May 1. I think that is a good sign that booking are way up too.
 
mickeymiss

mickeymiss

Well-Known Member
We have a trip booked for a few weeks from now. Will they still have masks for then? Things are moving fast. I feel a little more comfortable with some measures in place until we know what's happening with variants. We can't get refunded now so I'd be upset if they didn't give more than 30 days notice for any radical change in case people booked because Disney had safety measures. FTR, I don't mind loosening mask rules outside or even ditching temp checks but those long indoor lines make me nervous. My husband got sick at Disney in 2019 despite being so careful and we think it was from the long queue waits inside.
 
danlb_2000

danlb_2000

Premium Member
mickeymiss said:
We have a trip booked for a few weeks from now. Will they still have masks for then? Things are moving fast. I feel a little more comfortable with some measures in place until we know what's happening with variants. We can't get refunded now so I'd be upset if they didn't give more than 30 days notice for any radical change in case people booked because Disney had safety measures. FTR, I don't mind loosening mask rules outside or even ditching temp checks but those long indoor lines make me nervous. My husband got sick at Disney in 2019 despite being so careful and we think it was from the long queue waits inside.
Click to expand...

I don't think there is any way they drop indoor masking in the next few weeks, and I also doubt they will get dropped outdoor any time soon either if for no other reason then to simply enforcement.
 
GoofGoof

GoofGoof

Premium Member
mickeymiss said:
We have a trip booked for a few weeks from now. Will they still have masks for then? Things are moving fast. I feel a little more comfortable with some measures in place until we know what's happening with variants. We can't get refunded now so I'd be upset if they didn't give more than 30 days notice for any radical change in case people booked because Disney had safety measures. FTR, I don't mind loosening mask rules outside or even ditching temp checks but those long indoor lines make me nervous. My husband got sick at Disney in 2019 despite being so careful and we think it was from the long queue waits inside.
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I would guess that any changes will be announced in advance. I also think if you really wanted to cancel after a covid safety measure was relaxed you could call and get a full refund if you gave that as the reason.
 
H

havoc315

Well-Known Member
GoofGoof said:
I did say IF not that I thought that would happen. I have plenty of confidence we still can get close to 60% of the population vaccinated and even as soon as early June. We still averaged 1.3M first shots a day for the past 7 days. We have 140M people with at least 1 shot already and at a pace of 1.3M first shots it would take 45 more days to get to 60% of the population vaccinated so first week of June. The pace may drop further with adults but then we add in 12-15 and that should give us a boost back up. Getting more teens done should also have a big impact on spread too since then tend to be more mobile than older adults. No reason the Summer can’t be saved. All hope isn’t lost. Even at 55% instead of 60% that may be enough and could be reached by end of May at current pace. Hard to know until we get there.

For WDW, we are seeing more and more of a Summer ramp up. It won’t be like pre-Covid times, but they recently announced another resort coming back July 1, extended hours in May and June and for the first time in a long time started posting jobs externally to bring in more workers. In at least some positions all of the furloughed workers are back and with the college program still on hold they are hiring more workers externally. It’s a good sign Disney is expecting a major ramp up in crowds and attendance for the Summer. EPCOT’s hours extended to 10PM has a lot of people speculating they get the first night show back. Lots of rumors on other entertainment possibly returning too. It seems they are targeting around July 1 as the big ramp up including the July 4th holiday. That May coincide with Biden‘s ”return to normal” for Juiy 4th and Orange County saying no masks once we cross 50% vaccinated. Distancing on rides is mostly gone but could outdoor distancing or maybe even outdoor masks be next? I don’t think it will be rushed but if there is a major shift away from Covid safety stuff for outdoor activities Disney could jump onboard.
Click to expand...

My guess, simply educated guesses...

Likely:
-Attendance capacity increases beginning Memorial Day, 40-50% ball park
-outdoor masking lifted by July. (Likely continue indoors)
-modified FOTLK return (already announced)
-additional QS and TS opening, increasing capacity

My hopeful list— things that might happen, but I wouldn’t bet on it:
-Early entry starts
-reduced social distancing in queues and transportation
- Epcot Forever and Fantasmic
-full or nearly full capacity TS dining
Unlikely until maybe very late summer:
-Beauty and the Beast, Nemo, Indy stunt show, Etc
-Harmonious and Magic Kingdom fireworks
-buffets
-end of indoor masking
-AP sales

I’m almost positive won’t return until September or later:
-widespread character meets
- fastpass (or new system)
-dining plans
-full capacity
 
mickeymiss

mickeymiss

Well-Known Member
GoofGoof said:
I would guess that any changes will be announced in advance. I also think if you really wanted to cancel after a covid safety measure was relaxed you could call and get a full refund if you gave that as the reason.
Click to expand...
Thanks :) It seems unfair to not give a 30+ day heads up so that people can cancel. Kids can't be vaccinated yet so it's not like the coast is perfectly clear. I'm eager to get back to normal but we have gotten sick at Disney before covid despite taking major precautions so I hoped for the masks to stick for a bit longer. I agree that they might give us a refund for this reason but it'd be a bummer to lose the trip.
 
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