Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[GimpYancIent]

You mean scientists, doctors, and the CDC?

Sadly quite a few multi degree holding, title holding with a plethora of acronyms after their names people are doom and gloom minded. Oh! also proven wrong in their analysis, projections and guidance. Good things are happening and improvement is occurring despite the negativity anyway as there are plenty of good people counterbalancing the dark thinkers.

 

[GoofGoof]

The other day, I mentioned scientists’ concerns about certain variants and was met with accusations of being alarmist. Just to be clear, I’m sharing the article below not to fuel worry or pessimism, but because I think it’s important we understand what scientists themselves are saying in relation to these variants and how they intersect with our vaccination efforts.

At-risk UK groups could get Covid booster shots from September

Vaccines minister Nadhim Zahawi says jabs would protect the most vulnerable people from new variants

www.theguardian.com

I would assume that since the AstraZenneca vaccine is only 10% effective vs the S African variant and that’s the most popular vaccine in the UK they probably need to plan for the boosters just in case that variant arrives there. Pfizer and Moderna both said they were working on potential boosters too which makes sense. It’s not alarmist to plan for potential issues even if the likelihood of needing those boosters isn’t particularly high. It’s also big business. Requiring a 3rd shot for everyone is potentially billions in vaccine sales for the companies.

IMHO there‘s at least a 50/50 chance that we all need a booster in the next year or so either because the vaccine protection begins to wear off naturally or due to variants. I don’t think that has any impact on the current vaccine process at all. People need to get the vaccines now to cut cases as fast as possible. Once we get enough people vaccinated then the government can turn to an assessment of whether we need a booster and when.

 

[TrainsOfDisney]

Reality = We are still at 1,000 covid deaths per day.

 

[DCBaker]

Numbers are out - there were 26 new reported deaths, along with 1 Non-Florida Resident death.

 

[GoofGoof]

Reality = We are still at 1,000 covid deaths per day.

Thats why we all need to hang on a little while longer and follow good safety protocols. Right now only 46% of 65+ are fully vaccinated and some are still not over their 2 weeks beyond second shot. Deaths are also on a lag so the deaths reported today are probably from infections that happened up to a month ago when that number was much lower. We also have people under 65 with health conditions that are also less than half vaccinated. The good news is we are up to 71% of 65+ with at least 1 shot so 6 weeks from now we should see a real flatlining of the death rate. That’s not to say that people under 65 without health conditions can’t die too, but statistically the numbers are skewed greatly towards the elderly and unhealthy. I think it will still take a while to fully see the vaccine impact on deaths.

 

[LittleBuford]

I would assume that since the AstraZenneca vaccine is only 10% effective vs the S African variant and that’s the most popular vaccine in the UK they probably need to plan for the boosters just in case that variant arrives there.

Not to rehash the discussion of the other day, but you're focusing on distinctions that I'm not hearing from the scientists themselves. There are "variants of concern" out there, and experts across the board (not just in the UK, and not just relation to AstraZenneca) have said we need to remain vigilant against them. And again, lest I be misconstrued, I agree that the vaccines we have are an amazing breakthrough that everyone should avail themselves of.

 

[DCBaker]

Current Florida vaccine report -

 

[GoofGoof]

Not to rehash the discussion of the other day, but you're focusing on distinctions that I'm not hearing from the scientists themselves. There are "variants of concern" out there, and experts across the board (not just in relation to AstraZenneca) have said we need to remain vigilant against them. And again, lest I be misconstrued, I agree the vaccines we have are an amazing breakthrough that everyone should avail themselves of.

The article you posted was specifically about the UK. They mentioned in the article increasing the border controls for the UK and limiting international travel due to potential variants. The majority of people in the UK that are vaccinated used AstraZenneca. They talk in the article about manufacturing the boosters in the UK so not coming from Pfizer or Moderna or JnJ. The AstraZenneca vaccine works great against all but the S African variant. It makes perfect sense that they would be super worried about the S African variant coming to the UK and defeating the most used vaccine there. I’m not sure what distinction I’m missing.

 

[MaryJaneP]

Vaccines and their effect on planning or having a WDW trip, is an ongoing issue. To borrow (and probably somewhat mangle, with apologies to all offended) a great quote from (I think) Sir Winston Churchill upon (I think) the Allies regaining control of North Africa in WWII, this (in this instance, the vaccines) is not the end, it is not even the beginning of the end, but it is, almost assuredly, the end of the beginning. It was taken at the time, and may be appropriate now, to celebrate a significant victory while knowing that much remained to be done to achieve ultimate victory.

 

[GoofGoof]

3.5M doses reported today (from yesterday‘s shots), back to back record days. Daily 7 day average just under 2.7M shots.

 

[MaximumEd]

I’ve seen a lot of folks insinuate who is or isn’t going to take the vaccine in very broad and general terms based on what geographic area they live in. I just want to go on record that it’s not going to be that simple. For the record, I live in Alabama and make Rush Limbaugh look like a moderate and I can’t wait to take the vaccine. I also have friends who are very liberal and live out west and think their age and healthy lifestyle is all they need. You can’t say all the folks south of the Mason-Dixon Line won’t and everyone else will. Not that cut and dry.

 

[LittleBuford]

The article you posted was specifically about the UK. They mentioned in the article increasing the border controls for the UK and limiting international travel due to potential variants. The majority of people in the UK that are vaccinated used AstraZenneca. They talk in the article about manufacturing the boosters in the UK so not coming from Pfizer or Moderna or JnJ. The AstraZenneca vaccine works great against all but the S African variant. It makes perfect sense that they would be super worried about the S African variant coming to the UK and defeating the most used vaccine there. I’m not sure what distinction I’m missing.

The links I shared the other day weren't about the UK or AstraZenneca. Here, again, is a reminder:

Some of the data concerning the South African variant suggests that the vaccines may be less effective against it:

COVID-19 Vaccines

Vaccines are seen as one of the best ways to stop COVID-19. Learn more about the types of vaccines, including the newly approved Novavax.

www.webmd.com

And a link to the study itself:

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03398-2_reference.pdf

 

[Heppenheimer]

I’ve seen a lot of folks insinuate who is or isn’t going to take the vaccine in very broad and general terms based on what geographic area they live in. I just want to go on record that it’s not going to be that simple. For the record, I live in Alabama and make Rush Limbaugh look like a moderate and I can’t wait to take the vaccine. I also have friends who are very liberal and live out west and think their age and healthy lifestyle is all they need. You can’t say all the folks south of the Mason-Dixon Line won’t and everyone else will. Not that cut and dry.

I'm glad that you are getting the vaccine, but the polling on this issue has been pretty clear:

Little Difference In Vaccine Hesitancy Among White And Black Americans, Poll Finds

An NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll shows 1 in 4 Black people do not plan to get vaccinated. Despite the attention on concern among Blacks, nearly 30% of whites feel the same way.

www.npr.org

The single most vaccine-resistant demographic are Republican men, a notion that even further alienates me from the party that I once supported.

I would love to have a good, data-based conversation with these people, or anyone else who hesitates or refuses to get the vaccine.

 

[danlb_2000]

We will have to wait and see his things go. It started with the two week shutdown to stop the spread and that was a year ago. It’s been you have to do this and now you have to do this.
The media made this political with their doom and gloom reporting every single day. Then Joe gets in office and it all changes.

It was never "stop the spread", it was "slow the spread", and we eventually realized that unless you kept some level of mitigation, this thing would once again get out of controls. Things are much more open today then they were a year ago. Yes, what you had to do changed as we learned more. The media didn't make it political, the politicians did. The media is still reporting doom and gloom, that's just what they do.

Bottom line is, pandemics are hard and no one ever said it would be kitten, bunnies and rainbows.

 

[MaximumEd]

@Heppenheimer , I read the article and have no reason to doubt the validity, but it’s not lining up with the circles I run in. I’m hopeful we hit 70% overall. Time will tell.

 

[Heppenheimer]

Joe nothing he is not helpful. The doom and gloom folks are still running around as vocal as ever. Same folks that were loud about Y2K and the Mayan calendar. It is almost as if there is some kind of perverse satisfaction to spreading fear.

I'm pretty certain there wasn't a whole lot of overlap between people who had concerns about the Y2K bug and the Mayan calendar thing.

And you realize, of course, that Y2K went off largely without issue because in the US alone we spent over $300 billion correcting and retesting nearly 50 years' worth of accumulated computer coding?

Being concerned about a potential threat scenario and trying to mitigate or avoid the thread isn't the same as being resigned to a gloom and doom attitude.

 

[DCBaker]

Dr. Raul Pino talks here about what it will take to bring vaccine pods to campuses of major employers in Orange County (Disney, Universal, SeaWorld, Lockheed Martin, and UCF) -

 

[GoofGoof]

The links I shared the other day weren't about the UK or AstraZenneca. Here, again, is a reminder:

My comments were specifically on the article you posted which was about the UK.

The AstraZenneca vaccine was tested in a clinical trial in South Africa where the vast majority of cases came from the S African variant and it showed very poor efficacy. JnJ was also tested in S Africa in a clinical trial and showed a much higher efficacy than AstraZenneca that was still above the threshold that was set by the FDA. That‘s not to say that JnJ won’t also eventually need a booster but it’s definitely more pressing for AstraZenneca.

Pfizer and Moderna were not tested in real life in S Africa with a trial. We know from the study you posted that they produce less antibodies vs that variant but that’s in a lab and the researchers acknowledged the sample size was small and that it’s not fully known how the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines will work in real life against the South African variant. There are factors beyond antibodies that impact efficacy. Both Pfizer and Moderna are looking into creating boosters for that variant if it becomes a problem here or anywhere else and that’s the beauty of the mRNA vaccines, easily apadtable. The S African government has switched their vaccination effort to the Pfizer vaccine from AstraZenneca so we should get a lot of real life data relatively soon on how the vaccine works there vs the variant.

So far in both the UK and the US the number of cases with the S African variant are extremely low. It’s something to monitor for sure, but not a direct threat to the current vaccine effort in either place. Probably a good reason to limit international travel a bit longer though.

 

[GoofGoof]

@Heppenheimer , I read the article and have no reason to doubt the validity, but it’s not lining up with the circles I run in. I’m hopeful we hit 70% overall. Time will tell.

I hope to god that this is just a simple case of the polls being way wrong. I don’t know a whole lot of people who are registered Republicans who are not planning to get the vaccine. I chalked that up to being in a suburban market in a purple state in the Northeast. @DisneyCane has said the same about his circle in Florida. It’s even more encouraging to hear that’s what you are seeing in Alabama too. It would be tragic to have enough vaccine for everyone and have a large group of people not get it for political reasons. We are so close to getting out of this. Just need everyone to get their jabs.

 

[LittleBuford]

My comments were specifically on the article you posted which was about the UK.

The AstraZenneca vaccine was tested in a clinical trial in South Africa where the vast majority of cases came from the S African variant and it showed very poor efficacy. JnJ was also tested in S Africa in a clinical trial and showed a much higher efficacy than AstraZenneca that was still above the threshold that was set by the FDA. That‘s not to say that JnJ won’t also eventually need a booster but it’s definitely more pressing for AstraZenneca.

Pfizer and Moderna were not tested in real life in S Africa with a trial. We know from the study you posted that they produce less antibodies vs that variant but that’s in a lab and the researchers acknowledged the sample size was small and that it’s not fully known how the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines will work in real life against the South African variant. There are factors beyond antibodies that impact efficacy. Both Pfizer and Moderna are looking into creating boosters for that variant if it becomes a problem here or anywhere else and that’s the beauty of the mRNA vaccines, easily apadtable. The S African government has switched their vaccination effort to the Pfizer vaccine from AstraZenneca so we should get a lot of real life data relatively soon on how the vaccine works there vs the variant.

So far in both the UK and the US the number of cases with the S African variant are extremely low. It’s something to monitor for sure, but not a direct threat to the current vaccine effort in either place. Probably a good reason to limit international travel a bit longer though.

I'm not sure why we're not understanding each other, but my posts have been pretty clear in content and intent. I'm moving on from this exchange.