Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[Turtlekrawl]

lol, he is careful not to over-promise.

It’s smart.
You over-promise leading up to an election. You under-promise and over-deliver after you are already in office. (At least for a few months until the next campaign begins)

 

[danlb_2000]

Except that he consistently made statements using the language of certitude. Things that he framed as entirely outside the realm of possibility have come to pass. "Evolving knowledge" is a reasonable explanation for lack of precision, it is not an acceptable explanation for being just plain wrong.

"A vaccine that you make and start testing in a year is not a vaccine that's deployable" is a statement of certitude. He did not say "wow that would be hard." He did not say "that would really require the stars to align." He did not say "...but we could do it if conditions allow testing to be done quickly." He said "not deployable" as a statement of fact.

I can't really blame him for the vaccine comment, I don't think you would have found many experts at the point who thought a vaccine could be developed that fast. I found an article that said the next fastest vaccine was the mumps vaccine which took 4 years.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

I can't really blame him for the vaccine comment, I don't think you would have found many experts at the point who thought a vaccine could be developed that fast. I found an article that said the next fastest vaccine was the mumps vaccine which took 4 years.

With all of the bumbling incompetence and dishonesty of the Trump administration, anyone who denies the tremendous success of Operation Warp Speed is partisan beyond reason.

 

[sullyinMT]

Kids could be seen as an exception. Kind of like toddlers and masks.

It is for this reason I see the passports as much easier to initiate for modes of travel and international border crossings (international planes/trains, cruises, etc). It’s much easier to include on manifests or load into you airline’s app, or get tested in some timeframe for kids or those unable to be vaccinated. Maybe the same for big sporting events and the like if this drones on and people need a bigger carrot.
It’s a nice thought for WDW, but they’re likely to wait it out.

 

[GoofGoof]

Kids could be seen as an exception. Kind of like toddlers and masks.

Doesn‘t that defeat the purpose then? A vaccine passport would imply that it’s only safe to let people in if they are vaccinated. 2 and under is only about 3% of the population and they are generally not interacting with strangers. They are in a stroller or being carried a lot of the time. Kids under 18 make up 25% of the population and I would guess that percent is higher at WDW. Once kids have the vaccine too I could see a vaccine passport being possible for WDW but not before then. For something like a concert or even an adults only cruise or nightclub I think it would be a lot more practical.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

It is for this reason I see the passports as much easier to initiate for modes of travel and international border crossings (international planes/trains, cruises, etc). It’s much easier to include on manifests or load into you airline’s app, or get tested in some timeframe for kids or those unable to be vaccinated. Maybe the same for big sporting events and the like if this drones on and people need a bigger carrot.
It’s a nice thought for WDW, but they’re likely to wait it out.

It's not necessary. We don't need to achieve the target herd immunity percentages with vaccines alone. Vaccines + infected is the relevant population.

 

[GoofGoof]

It is for this reason I see the passports as much easier to initiate for modes of travel and international border crossings (international planes/trains, cruises, etc). It’s much easier to include on manifests or load into you airline’s app, or get tested in some timeframe for kids or those unable to be vaccinated. Maybe the same for big sporting events and the like if this drones on and people need a bigger carrot.
It’s a nice thought for WDW, but they’re likely to wait it out.

I suppose allowing kids to show a negative test instead of proof of vaccine could make it work, but how many people will want to get their kid a covid test to get into WDW?

 

[DisneyFan32]

@GoofGoof will be fourth surge soon or not this month or next month? If we will wait two or three months after all people got vaccine by May/June, then masks and social distancing may be gone this summer.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

I suppose allowing kids to show a negative test instead of proof of vaccine could make it work, but how many people will want to get their kid a covid test to get into WDW?

Why would WDW want to do this even hypothetically? They've been open with 0% of people vaccinated so why would they get *more* strict as the vaccinated population increases?

The only businesses/services that would consider some kind of vaccine passport are places that are currently closed.

 

[danlb_2000]

With all of the bumbling incompetence and dishonesty of the Trump administration, anyone who denies the tremendous success of Operation Warp Speed is partisan beyond reason.

Not sure what your point is. Fauci's statement was made two months before Warp Speed was announced.

 

[danlb_2000]

Why would WDW want to do this even hypothetically? They've been open with 0% of people vaccinated so why would they get *more* strict as the vaccinated population increases?

The only businesses/services that would consider some kind of vaccine passport are places that are currently closed.

The reason to do it would be to lift restrictions faster, not that I think they will do mandatory vaccinations.

 

[oceanbreeze77]

Why would WDW want to do this even hypothetically? They've been open with 0% of people vaccinated so why would they get *more* strict as the vaccinated population increases?

The only businesses/services that would consider some kind of vaccine passport are places that are currently closed.

to lift masks and other restrictions.

 

[GoofGoof]

It's not necessary. We don't need to achieve the target herd immunity percentages with vaccines alone. Vaccines + infected is the relevant population.

There’s a lot of overlap though between infected naturally and vaccinated. For example if 80% of the population gets vaccinated and that percent holds for all groups then 80% of the people naturally infected also got vaccinated and only 20% of the people naturally infected are added to the total immune number. You also have to factor in that the vaccines aren’t 100% effective. Assuming an average efficacy close to 90% that still means 10% of the people vaccinated aren’t really immune. So if 80% of the population is vaccinated then 72% of the population is immune from vaccination. If 40% of the population was naturally infected, 20% of them or 8% of the population would not also be vaccinated so you can add that 8% to the immune from vaccination group. That means 80% immune. The math happens to work out to a wash which isn’t a guarantee to happen but I think it’s likely that natural immunity at least covers the people who are vaccinated but not immune.

 

[Rich Brownn]

The proof is such a joke though. I have such proof and it's just a simple piece of business card thick paper with nothing special on it. As easy as it is to pass a "service dog" off making your own vaccine cards is even simpler.

Thats not a proof of vaccine card. Its a reminder card for those who get 2 shots. There's no actual vaccine proof card.... yet

 

[GoofGoof]

Why would WDW want to do this even hypothetically? They've been open with 0% of people vaccinated so why would they get *more* strict as the vaccinated population increases?

The only businesses/services that would consider some kind of vaccine passport are places that are currently closed.

They aren’t fully open. If WDW wanted to be fully open with no limits or masks that’s one way to do it. I just think kids are a major obstacle and by the time they get vaccinated hopefully it won’t be necessary.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

to lift masks and other restrictions.

Limiting park entrance to only vaccinated individuals isn't how herd immunity works because those people are still out in the general population and exposed to the rest of the world all day, every day. Disney will lift masks and other restrictions when the general population reaches its necessary milestones, they're not going to try to gatekeep that at the park entrance.

Not to mention there are a thousand reasons people might choose to not be vaccinated that Disney won't want to adjudicate (children, nursing mothers, pregnant women, women who may become pregnant, religious objection, Qanon lunatic, etc.). Their lawyers wouldn't let them within 100 feet of that scheme even if Ops was inclined to try it.

They aren’t fully open. If WDW wanted to be fully open with no limits or masks that’s one way to do it. I just think kids are a major obstacle and by the time they get vaccinated hopefully it won’t be necessary.

WDW's restrictions are self-imposed and they will lift when public sentiment says they'll lift. It's not a scientific decision, it's a PR decision.

 

[Kevin_W]

Residents deemed extremely vulnerable will not yet be able to get vaccinated at the Federal or State-supported sites -

View attachment 536868

I'm curious with walk-ups being accepted. What criterion are they using for eligibility? Just a driver's license with birthdate?

 

[CaptainAmerica]

There’s a lot of overlap though between infected naturally and vaccinated. For example if 80% of the population gets vaccinated and that percent holds for all groups then 80% of the people naturally infected also got vaccinated and only 20% of the people naturally infected are added to the total immune number. You also have to factor in that the vaccines aren’t 100% effective. Assuming an average efficacy close to 90% that still means 10% of the people vaccinated aren’t really immune. So if 80% of the population is vaccinated then 72% of the population is immune from vaccination. If 40% of the population was naturally infected, 20% of them or 8% of the population would not also be vaccinated so you can add that 8% to the immune from vaccination group. That means 80% immune. The math happens to work out to a wash which isn’t a guarantee to happen but I think it’s likely that natural immunity at least covers the people who are vaccinated but not immune.

I expect that there's a strong negative correlation between "naturally infected" and "willingness to vax." The people who have behaved recklessly and are therefore more likely to have been infected naturally tend to be the same people who won't get the vaccine. Some people won't get the vaccine specifically BECAUSE they've already been infected. So it's not just a correlation working in our favor, it's at least somewhat causal.

 

[Heppenheimer]

Thats not a proof of vaccine card. Its a reminder card for those who get 2 shots. There's no actual vaccine proof card.... yet

But it has the same information that would be documented for any vaccine (date, where you got it, the vaccine formulation and the lot number), so for now, it provides as much proof of vaccination as any other.

 

[DisneyFan32]

This month or next month, is there will be another surge like big one or not? I'm afraid of this Texas to lift masks next week to let another surge. I think Texas needs to change their minds and have to wait for 2-3 months to lift masks and social distancing to let more cases coming decease by late summer. @GoofGoof