Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[LittleBuford]

Do you know how few Covid pts are put on ventilators? It’s practically a death sentence

The bolded is a really irresponsible thing to say.

 

[Yodascousin]

I think it’s the government’s responsibility to protect it’s citizens, if a pandemic is raging outside US borders but not inside it then it’s perfectly reasonable to enact restrictions on non citizens trying to enter (that’s a right of any country.) Democracies grant certain rights to citizens, but have the right to restrict them to only citizens.

As far as the AstraZenica comment, early studies suggest it is completely ineffective against the SA strain. There is a possibility this was due to lax production standards at the factory that sent said vaccine to SA, and if that’s the case it’s possible vaccines made elsewhere might still be good, but it also might be that that vaccine is ineffective and thus might be rejected in any vaccine passport.

The sinovac vaccine is <50% effective and thus deemed ineffective by our FDA it almost certainly won’t be included, the AZ vaccine might still be approved but between the botched study and possible production slip up it’s not UK’s finest hour. Sorry but it’s the truth.

Sorry but some of this is outright wrong the AZ vaccine is not completely ineffective against the SA strain as it still completely stops severe illness and death it is only slightly ineffective against preventing mild illness. Furthermore the study which showed slightly ineffectiveness was full of holes the sample size was too small and the dosing was only done 4 weeks apart when it is supposed to be between 8-12 weeks.
Now that more data has come out about AZ it actually has a higher efficiacy rate against the original and uk strain then 1 shot of the j and j and Pfizer vaccine

 

[Patcheslee]

The state I live in has a horrible system as well regarding the vaccine. The governor decides who belongs in each phase of vaccinations. There is currently no schedule published that features which age groups or essential worker categories get their vaccines in which order beyond the current demographic being done. Obviously dates can’t be given far in advance due to supply and demand issues, but the order of which age groups and categories should be listed. This is something that should be done uniformly throughout the country rather than state by state.

Mine is the same way. Beyond 50-59 may be the next group, and 4 diseases that are high risk will be included at some point. We don’t know because they have changed their plans so many times. It's also be stated they may do high risk, 55-59, then 50-54. Trend seems to be when they have received enough to vaccinate around 60% of the eligible groups they open to another. Then they seem to only open eligibility to cover 40%, wait for it to climb again, and add another group.
Indiana so far has refused to include any jobs beyond the medical, emergency and LTC staff.

 

[Patcheslee]

The J&J weekly allocations are now public. Florida is set to receive 175100 this week.

COVID-19 Vaccine Distribution Allocations by Jurisdiction - Janssen | Data | Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

data.cdc.gov

 

[Touchdown]

The bolded is a really irresponsible thing to say.

It’s the truth, if you get that sick with Covid your mortality significantly rises. It’s not everyone, but from my observations it’s significantly more then 50%. Early on in the pandemic, we quickly learned this. If you have a loved one currently on a ventilator with Covid their life is in danger, we will still do it if everything else doesn’t work and we have no choice but we try everything else first.

If the doctor hasn’t disclosed this to you they are doing you a disservice, telling decision makers prognosis is part of informed consent. However, information comes very quickly at families when in the ICU and it’s common for some of that information not to sink in, it’s incredibly hard to come to terms with how sick their loved ones are and if you are in this position I am truely sorry.

To co-op a scene from one of my favorite movies, being practically a death sentence, means it’s partially not one. Some people do live through being ventilated and recover but it takes a miracle.

In my darkest days a few months ago, and I thought about what I would do if I caught Covid and ended up in the hospital I seriously considered, as a person in their 30s, choosing to make myself a DNR for that stay. I thankfully never got to that point, so I don’t know if I would have gone through with it, but that’s how serious I thought about it

 

[correcaminos]

Of course not. I’m not saying they are lying. I’m simply saying some deaths have been attributed to Covid only because the deceased had a Covid symptom. Which is all that is required based on the HEROS act.

That was a quote from your own article. So your article even stated that.

I think the number of missed covid out cancel what you are in belief of if it did indeed happen which I don't think so.

 

[bdearl41]

You’re claiming causes of death, a major focus of the pandemic, are being faked.

Nope. Never said fake. Saying that if you died of a stroke and had a Covid symptom it was allowed to be classified as a Covid death this allowing the facility to receive more money. Of course hospitals did this as they were losing money hand over fist.

 

[lazyboy97o]

Nope. Never said fake. Saying that if you died of a stroke and had a Covid symptom it was allowed to be classified as a Covid death this allowing the facility to receive more money. Of course hospitals did this as they were losing money hand over fist.

That is still faking. Still illegal. Still fraud. Still a conspiracy. Still bunk.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

DRGs are paid out based on expected expenses for the entire hospital stay, no matter how long or costly the care is. A typical person with hypoxia due to otherwise uncomplicated Bacterial Pneumonia are hospitalized for 2-3 days, usually by that time a patient can be weaned off oxygen and blood cultures have come back negative. Therefore the hospital is paid $1,330-2500 a day for all of their expenses.

A typical person admitted with hypoxia due to Covid Pneumonia is usually admitted for 5-7 day course (remdesivir, the gold standard in care is an iv only medication, is a 5 day course) the hospital therefore gets paid $1857-$2600. Still more, but, remdesivir is far more expensive then ceftriaxone and azithromycin (Gold standard antibiotics for pneumonia)and you have to grab your staff in airborne PPE to care for that patient. That couple hundred disappears quick.

As for why I brought up ventilators if your hypothesis was correct 39k is a heck of a lot more then 15k, so we should go for the gold.

And if you read my article it pales in comparison to surgical procedures which get the hospital orders of magnitude higher payouts. Why fake a pandemic for a couple thousand when you can replace knees for tens of thousands?

Of all the stupid hoax theories that flew last year...this one may take the cake.

The “Chinese bio weapon” makes much more sense...which is still like 0

 

[Miss Bella]

Nope. Never said fake. Saying that if you died of a stroke and had a Covid symptom it was allowed to be classified as a Covid death this allowing the facility to receive more money. Of course hospitals did this as they were losing money hand over fist.

I don’t know I how much money the hospitals got for Covid patients, but I know they got millions for staffing and equipment. The amount of staff and money being paid out has been astounding. It would be interesting to see if hospitals were profitable during all this.

 

[Kevin_W]

The J&J weekly allocations are now public. Florida is set to receive 175100 this week.

COVID-19 Vaccine Distribution Allocations by Jurisdiction - Janssen | Data | Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

data.cdc.gov

Thanks for that link. It's interesting that the separate out NYC, Chicago, Philadelphia from the rest of their states. (It's also interesting that there are so many foreign territories under US juristiction or aid agreements that my high school government class never taught me about!).

There was so much press early on about "at risk" manufacturing, but doesn't look like it was really happening. That's a bit disappointing. But we'll take what we can get, recognizing that this was still historically fast development.

 

[DisneyDebRob]

Of all the stupid hoax theories that flew last year...this one may take the cake.

The “Chinese bio weapon” makes much more sense...which is still like 0

 

[bdearl41]

That is still faking. Still illegal. Still fraud. Still a conspiracy. Still bunk.

Not based on the hero’s act

 

[DisneyCane]

I calculated the weekly numbers for the past two weeks in FL using a spreadsheet to figure out weekly new tests and new case positivity.

For the week of 1/24-1/30, there were 70,800 new cases, 846,155 new tests and 8.37% new case positivity for the week.

For the week of 1/31-2/6, there were 55,170 new cases, 766,606 new tests and 7.2% new case positivity for the week.

Week over week there was a 22% decrease in new cases on 9.4% fewer tests with a 13.99% decrease in new case positivity. Hopefully this trend will continue as vaccinations increase. I don't think the vaccinations have anything to do with this decrease as not even 10% of the population has received a first dose and barely over 3% have had both doses.

I updated my spreadsheet calculations for the week of 2/7-2/13:

For the week of 2/7-2/13, there were 48,669 new cases, 741,118 new tests and 6.57% new case positivity for the week.

Week over week, this represents an 11.8% decrease in new cases on 3.3% fewer tests with an 8.75% decrease in new case positivity.

The rate of decrease wasn't as rapid as the prior week over week data but so far it is still trending in the right direction.

Update for the week of 2/14-2/20:

For the week of 2/14-2/20, there were 41,443 new cases, 663,097 new tests and 6.25% new case positivity for the week.

Week over week, this represents a 14.9% decrease in new cases on 10.5% fewer tests with a 4.8% decrease in new case positivity.

The reduction in weekly new tests are likely due to the lower number of symptomatic cases. If you look at the sentinel monitoring of COVID-like illness Emergency Department visits, the trend has been a significant decrease. For the weeks I've been tracking this data, the new case positivity has been 8.37%, 7.2%, 6.57%, 6.25%. Extrapolating, the new case positivity should be under 5% in 3 weeks or so if the trends continue.

Update for the week of 2/21-2/28;

For the week of 2/21-2/28, there were 40,025 new cases, 684,254 new tests and 5.85% new case positivity for the week.

Week over week, this represents a 3.4% decrease in new cases on 3.2% more tests with a 6.4% decrease in new case positivity.

The rate of decrease in reported cases has slowed but the fact that it is decreasing with increased testing is a still a good trend which will hopefully continue. As the number of fully vaccinated people increases, it will soon be a high enough percentage to have an effect on lowering the daily cases. Not necessarily from reduced community spread since most are targeted at 65+, but simply removing enough people from the "infectible pool" to lower the case number.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Not based on the hero’s act

You’re not following...the losses in hospital procedures and loss in tax revenues from covid lockdowns is WAY more than any covid payments...

Wherever you’re getting that from...it’s wrong

 

[Touchdown]

Not based on the hero’s act

 

[DisneyCane]

Long term care facilities residents and staff report:

60% decline in currently infected residents 1/18-2/16, 57.7% decline in currently infected staff in the same time frame.

Data seems encouraging that the vaccine(s) are preventing infections, not just symptoms since I believe the staff is still tested once every two weeks. Staff should roughly be in line with the general population without the vaccine so the dramatic decrease in staff current positives seems to indicate the vaccine(s) having an effect.

View attachment 532798

Quick update to the Florida long term care facility data to try and assess how effective the vaccinations are in the real world. As of 2/1, all residents and staff of long term care facilities were offered the vaccine. I have not seen any data about the acceptance rate.
View attachment 534589
From 1/18-2/21, the number of COVID positive residents has declined 70.6% and the number of COVID positive staff has declined 68.8%. According to the data from worlometers.info, the seven day rolling average of new cases in FL have declined 51% over the same time period. Taken together, this data appears to indicate that the vaccinations are very effective in preventing infections in the real world. The staff lives outside of the facility and without vaccination would be expected to track similarly to the general population. The decline in COVID positive staff was 34.9% more than the decline in the overall population.

I know that this analysis isn't perfect because the LTC report is looking at current positive people and the other data is new cases daily. Also, the vaccine acceptance rate isn't known and neither is the data for when the staff received each shot. When taken with other vaccine studies and trials, this data seems to reinforce the effectiveness.

Updating the data from Florida's long term care facility residents and staff. At this point, all residents and staff who wished to be vaccinated should have received both doses.
View attachment 536420
From 1/18-2/28, the number of currently COVID-19 positive residents decreased 79.5% and the number of currently COVID-19 positive staff has decreased 77%. The seven day rolling average of daily reported cases in FL declined 55.4% in the same time period. Although the LTC data set looks at currently positive people, it should be roughly comparable to the daily case number. The fact that the number of COVID-19 positive LTC facility staff, who spend their non-working hours in the community, declined 40% more than the decrease in cases in the general population seems to show the effectiveness of the vaccines in preventing infections (not just symptoms).

I wish I had the data for the vaccine acceptance rate of LTC residents and staff as it would really help to be able to extrapolate to the general population once vaccines are more widely available.

 

[lazyboy97o]

Not based on the hero’s act

Then cite the law, which will be hard to do since the HEROES Act has not been passed.

 

[DisneyCane]

Current Florida vaccine report -

View attachment 536205View attachment 536206

Doing a little math, 726,034 people under 65 have had at least one shot and 2,290,627 people 65 and over have had at least one shot. For all those people to complete the series, 6,033,322 doses will have been required. If everybody 65 and over elects to be vaccinated (some percentage won't), approximately 4.5 million more doses are required.

Assuming that people under 65 will continue to be vaccinated who meet the criteria, it looks like the State needs approximately 11 million doses delivered total to get through the first phase of vaccinations (assuming Pfizer and Moderna) and open up to more groups for eligibility. According to the CDC data, 6,313,555 doses have been delivered so 4.7 million more are needed.

I don't know what the weekly allocation is planned to be (@GoofGoof may be able to chime in) but that would allow a pretty good estimate on when the next phase could open up in FL.

 

[Heppenheimer]

Nope. Never said fake. Saying that if you died of a stroke and had a Covid symptom it was allowed to be classified as a Covid death this allowing the facility to receive more money. Of course hospitals did this as they were losing money hand over fist.

People who get septic have all kinds of things go wrong... myocardial infarcts, congestive heart failure, strokes, kidney failure, disseminated intravascular coagulation, liver failure, pulmonary embolism, adult respiratory distress syndrome, etc. The proximate cause of death very well may be any of the previous, and a severe infection like COVID can be the significant contributing morbidity.

I trust the attending physician who fills out the death certificate to have far better insight into individual cases causes of death than conspiracy theorists on the internet.

I thought we beat this dead horse into a pulp back last spring.