Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[Chi84]

Vaccines vs. Variants: How manufacturers are racing to get ahead of COVID-19 — ABC7 Bay Area

With dangerous new variants of COVID-19 appearing worldwide including California, manufacturers are racing to keep their vaccines a step ahead of the virus.

apple.news

Good news

 

[Touchdown]

Sorry to be rather selfish but can WDW or indeed the USA in general return to normal until overseas visitors are allowed/welcomed once more?

With how quickly we are vaccinating compared to the world I fully expect us to be normal before the rest of the world. As much as WDW enjoys its international travel, the majority of its customers are still Americans. They will experience more high/low seasons (Jan-Feb, May, Aug being low; everything else being high) but yes I expect them to be normal.

It’s not like all international travel will be halted, but I think it’s highly likely the US enacts a vaccine or mandatory quarantine requirement, and don’t be surprised if some vaccines aren’t deemed appropriate over here (sinovac maybe AstraZeneca.)

International travel will not be normal for years, I think we are looking at 2023 at the earliest.

 

[GoofGoof]

Variants are already being blamed for the stalling of any decline — and possible rise — in infections in NY.
No evidence that the vaccines are ineffective against the variants. But more contagious variants that respond a bit less to the vaccine, has an effect of increasing the vaccination level for herd immunity. (Ie, maybe we could have reached herd immunity at 65% last year. But with newer variants, we won’t get there until 85%.. hypothetically). So even assuming the vaccines “work” on the newer variants, they can still slow us down.

Problem with vaccine hesitancy and the issue you describe: if the message becomes, “you can go back to normal once vaccines are available in a couple of months” — you’ll potentially get a lot of people with the attitude, “well... I don’t need to be 1 of the people vaccinated. We are going back to normal soon, whether I personally get the vaccine or not.”
That’s why I personally like the vaccine passports (but they would be too controversial here). “Yes, you can go back to normal soon — as long as you have proof you’ve been fully vaccinated and you keep up with booster

Vaccine passports are unlikely to be used widespread in the US. They may work for specific one off situations like a cruise or maybe a concert but I don’t see us getting anywhere close to the passport to interact in public. The country isn’t wired that way. Plus we have the issue of kids not being eligible so do we just say anyone with kids under 12 cannot do anything with their children in public? Tough sell.

If the CDC continues to revise their guidance for anyone who is vaccinated that acts as a version of a carrot for people to get vaccinated. If for example they say the travel quarantine restrictions don’t apply to anyone who is vaccinated that would be a great incentive for anyone who wants to travel out of state to get the vaccine first. Even though the CDC recommendations are just guidelines and aren’t enforceable as laws many employers use those guidelines. So if your employer requires you to quarantine after traveling if you aren’t vaccinated that could push people towards getting the vaccine to avoid taking extra time off.

 

[DisneyDebRob]

I got an appointment through Rite Aid when they started that program where the manufacturers were shipping straight to pharmacies but my appointment got cancelled due to the snow storms and rescheduled for 3 weeks later. My parents just got their appointments for Tuesday through a hospital in Philadelphia. It’s been hard for them since they are 74 and Philly hasn’t opened up yet to 65-74 but they opened to people with health conditions so they qualified that way.

My co-worker said his mother is a nurse and volunteering at St Mary’s hospital in Bucks county and they have a sign up list. I also heard some people having luck with St Luke’s hospital in the Lehigh Valley. A little further to drive but they seem to be cranking out doses now. Otherwise it’s clicking and hoping to get an appointment that opens up. Good luck finding one. I am hopeful with the manufacturers ramping up and JnJ coming on line things will get a little easier. I need to get my wife in soon or I’m going to have to take over full time grocery shopping duties

Exactly 2 of the ones I’m on a list for. Along with a few others. Just happy they are going in order instead of luck of the draw. At.Mary’s is actually where I go for doctors but no such luck getting their patients in first.

 

[Touchdown]

Vaccine passports are unlikely to be used widespread in the US. They may work for specific one off situations like a cruise or maybe a concert but I don’t see us getting anywhere close to the passport to interact in public. The country isn’t wired that way. Plus we have the issue of kids not being eligible so do we just say anyone with kids under 12 cannot do anything with their children in public? Tough sell.

If the CDC continues to revise their guidance for anyone who is vaccinated that acts as a version of a carrot for people to get vaccinated. If for example they say the travel quarantine restrictions don’t apply to anyone who is vaccinated that would be a great incentive for anyone who wants to travel out of state to get the vaccine first. Even though the CDC recommendations are just guidelines and aren’t enforceable as laws many employers use those guidelines. So if your employer requires you to quarantine after traveling if you aren’t vaccinated that could push people towards getting the vaccine to avoid taking extra time off.

I was speaking for international travelers, which is something that the federal govt could easily implement at borders, particularly for non citizens. I agree that they won’t be widespread in the US.

 

[Incomudro]

It was lockdowns that were proposed to control the rate of spread so hospitals would not become overwhelmed, not masks and distancing. Masks and distancing didn't start becoming a part of the mix until April of last year, and were a way of offering some protection to people when in public, especially frontline workers. When studies began to show that they helped limit spread, they became a focus of precaution.

I know people will argue until they are blue in the face that masks are an affront to their personal liberty, yada yada. The fact is that they are a cheap, simple, effective way of providing some safety in a COVID world, and ultimately a temporary inconvenience.

Masks and social distancing were further added when it was understood that lockdowns couldn't be maintained indefinitely and public health advisors feared that spread would still compound at a rate that would cause many problems.
I believe Fauci etc. came to the conclusion that "Hell, let's try everything" because this thing might really get out of control.
Fauci said no to them at first, because virtually anyone in healthcare would tell you that they don't use a regular surgical mask to stop virus's. (The first thing my wife an RN said when cloth masks were proposed was very much like what Dr. Fauci said.
There's a right type of mask (n95) a right way to put them on, and remove them, store them if the are used again, and so on.
But again, when concerns grew that this whole thing might get really out of hand it was decided to adopt public mask wearing.

 

[GoofGoof]

I was speaking for international travelers, which is something that the federal govt could easily implement at borders, particularly for non citizens. I agree that they won’t be widespread in the US.

I could see international travel requiring a vaccine just like cruises, especially if they let you off the ship in any other country. I don’t see domestic air travel requiring proof of vaccination. I am definitely planning to get the vaccine so it would be no skin off my back to require it and would actually make things that much more safe to fly, but I just don’t see the airlines or the public going for it.

 

[ParentsOf4]

It's a little to early to claim victory, we do not know if the current downward trend will continue. At the moment the trend case number has flattened out. Still be a week or two before we know if this is a numerical anomaly, a short term slowing, or the beginning of another surge.

There almost certainly will be another surge, although (hopefully) not as large as the last one.

The first column represents the year, the second the death rate and the third Growth rate. For the last ten years, the death rate has increased each year. With an increasingly aging population, this make sense.

2020	8.880	1.120%
2019	8.782	1.120%
2018	8.685	1.220%
2017	8.580	1.240%
2016	8.475	1.270%
2015	8.369	1.270%
2014	8.264	1.290%
2013	8.159	0.090%
2012	8.152	0.090%
2011	8.145	0.090%
2010	8.138	0.090%

What's your point in posting? Let me guess, to convince others restrictions need to go away asap. Or to convince yourself that you are right to not wear masks in public or something similar. Am I wrong?

Posts like yours are legitimately dangerous.

I found the source for this data, and you conviently left off this note:

View attachment 536059

U.S. Death Rate 1950-2025 | MacroTrends

Crude death rate indicates the number of deaths occurring during the year, per 1,000 population estimated at midyear. Subtracting the crude death rate from the crude birth rate provides the rate of natural increase, which is equal to the rate of population change in the absence of migration.

www.macrotrends.net

In addition to an older population, death rates are increasing also because Americans are living less healthy lifestyles.

I respectfully suggest that no matter which way the numbers @CAV has quoted are going, we all have to recognize that COVID certainly has killed hundreds of thousands of Americans. We can quibble about the specifics. Doctors, administrators, and politicians are not perfect. They make mistakes and have agendas, just like everyone else.

But whether it's 100,000 or 1,000,000 or somewhere in between, hundreds of thousands have died from COVID.

masks work and help in very minor ways. For some reason people think a mask is doing way more than it is. Again, the results speak for themselves. States with loose mask rules having the same or better results than states with strict mask rules proves masking is next to insignificant as far as mitigation policies go.

I agree that states with loose mask rules have roughly the same results as states with strict mask rules. To me, this suggests that some of the more extreme measures have little effect.

However ...

You're missing where mask rules really are enforced within the United States - in the private sector. Most (all?) national chains still require masks to enter their stores. Most (all?) large corporations are enforcing mask wearing. Day-to-day, these are where most people interact with other people.

Of course, we also have most universities and schools still enforcing masks as well, another place where people interact in large numbers.

As we've seen with the latest post-holiday surge, when people gather together in settings where masks are not worn (e.g. homes), outbreaks occur.

My wife told me (anyone else read this?) that cases of the flu are way down this year. If true, then I strongly suspect this is because mask wearing, social distancing, extra cleaning, etc. work.

If these precautions reduce the spread of the flu, then it is logical that these same precautions reduce the spread of COVID.

 

[GoofGoof]

There almost certainly will be another surge, although (hopefully) not as large as the last one.




In addition to an older population, death rates are increasing also because Americans are living less healthy lifestyles.

I respectfully suggest that no mater which way the numbers @CAV has quoted are going, we all have to recognize that COVID certainly has killed hundreds of thousands of Americans. We can quibble about the specifics. Doctors, administrators, and politicians are not perfect. They make mistakes and have agendas, just like everyone else.

But whether it's 100,000 or 1,000,000 or somewhere in between, hundreds of thousands have died from COVID.

I agree that states with loose mask rules have roughly the same results as states with strict mask rules. To me, this suggests that some of the more extreme measures have little effect.

However ...

You're missing where mask rules really are enforced within the United States - at the private sector level. Most (all?) national chains still require masks to enter their stores. Most (all?) large corporations are enforcing mask wearing. Day-to-day, these are where most people interact with other people.

Of course, we also have most universities and schools still enforcing masks as well, another place where people interact in large numbers.

As we've seen with the latest post-holiday surge, when people gather together in settings where masks are not worn (e.g. homes), outbreaks occur.

My wife told me (anyone else read this?) that cases of the flu are way down this year. If true, then I strongly suspect this is because of mask wearing, social distancing, extra cleaning, etc. work.

If these precautions reduce the spread of the flu, then it is logical that these same precautions reduce the spread of COVID.

Agree with this 100%

It is the American way to resist if the government says we have to do something but if a business requires it to accept it. Not 100% across the board but many people opposed to government imposed mask mandates say that they respect the right of an individual business to require masks. Capitalism and freedom of choice at work. Same applies with privacy. People vehemently against the government “tracking” them for Covid spread have no problem with Facebook or Google or Twitter or Apple or Disney tracking them online.

The flu was way down this year. I think masks and distancing are the primary drivers and I think flu shots were up tjis year as well. Kids at school in particular are much less likely to be sent sick and spread to other kids and their families. Same goes for workers (especially in an office setting) where people tended to go to work sick but now are either working remotely or can’t get into the place with a fever or symptoms.

 

[JAKECOTCenter]

J&J just got the OK from the CDC. Welcome to the family number 3

 

[Patcheslee]

My coworker got his 2nd shot yesterday, 68 and still works more days than many of us. Glad because he's like a grandpa to me and I'd hate for him to get sick. Now I can ease up on some of the coworkers who get too close to him with masks off.

Vaccine passports are unlikely to be used widespread in the US. They may work for specific one off situations like a cruise or maybe a concert but I don’t see us getting anywhere close to the passport to interact in public. The country isn’t wired that way. Plus we have the issue of kids not being eligible so do we just say anyone with kids under 12 cannot do anything with their children in public? Tough sell.

If the CDC continues to revise their guidance for anyone who is vaccinated that acts as a version of a carrot for people to get vaccinated. If for example they say the travel quarantine restrictions don’t apply to anyone who is vaccinated that would be a great incentive for anyone who wants to travel out of state to get the vaccine first. Even though the CDC recommendations are just guidelines and aren’t enforceable as laws many employers use those guidelines. So if your employer requires you to quarantine after traveling if you aren’t vaccinated that could push people towards getting the vaccine to avoid taking extra time off.

From my standpoint the CDC has to be careful with their quarantine requirements in another way. Say I wanted to travel August 15th, the current waiver for quarantine when exposed to a confirmed positive is up to 3 months from last dose. It would make more sense for me to delay getting the vaccine until I'm in that 3 month window as I'm more likely to come into contact then vs with my current precautions at home. Same if my employer requires quarantine or vaccine. Hopefully this doesn't delay too many people, and the longer we go the greater the covered period will become.

 

[seascape]

I got an appointment through Rite Aid when they started that program where the manufacturers were shipping straight to pharmacies but my appointment got cancelled due to the snow storms and rescheduled for 3 weeks later. My parents just got their appointments for Tuesday through a hospital in Philadelphia. It’s been hard for them since they are 74 and Philly hasn’t opened up yet to 65-74 but they opened to people with health conditions so they qualified that way.

My co-worker said his mother is a nurse and volunteering at St Mary’s hospital in Bucks county and they have a sign up list. I also heard some people having luck with St Luke’s hospital in the Lehigh Valley. A little further to drive but they seem to be cranking out doses now. Otherwise it’s clicking and hoping to get an appointment that opens up. Good luck finding one. I am hopeful with the manufacturers ramping up and JnJ coming on line things will get a little easier. I need to get my wife in soon or I’m going to have to take over full time grocery shopping duties

I also got my appointment from Rite Aid. They have lots of locations but their signup procedure stinks. I spent 2 days trying to find a location and time before I finally signed up. The biggest pain was fining a a time, selecting it, filling out the information only to find someone else did it faster and the time was gone. In any case I found a location in South Jersey 91 minutes away from my home.

I am very grateful that Rite Aid had the spots and that I will receive my second shot on March 19th and according to the CDC will be fully protected by April 2. I cant wait until later in April for my WDW trip as both my wife and I will be vaccinated and not have to quarantine on our return to NJ.

 

[danlb_2000]

I also got my appointment from Rite Aid. They have lots of locations but their signup procedure stinks. I spent 2 days trying to find a location and time before I finally signed up. The biggest pain was fining a a time, selecting it, filling out the information only to find someone else did it faster and the time was gone. In any case I found a location in South Jersey 91 minutes away from my home.

I am very grateful that Rite Aid had the spots and that I will receive my second shot on March 19th and according to the CDC will be fully protected by April 2. I cant wait until later in April for my WDW trip as both my wife and I will be vaccinated and not have to quarantine on our return to NJ.

This is my biggest issue so far with the vaccine rollout, it would be nice to have had a single portal, at least at the state level, where you could sign up, and then be scheduled at whatever location near you has availability.

 

[GoofGoof]

My coworker got his 2nd shot yesterday, 68 and still works more days than many of us. Glad because he's like a grandpa to me and I'd hate for him to get sick. Now I can ease up on some of the coworkers who get too close to him with masks off.

From my standpoint the CDC has to be careful with their quarantine requirements in another way. Say I wanted to travel August 15th, the current waiver for quarantine when exposed to a confirmed positive is up to 3 months from last dose. It would make more sense for me to delay getting the vaccine until I'm in that 3 month window as I'm more likely to come into contact then vs with my current precautions at home. Same if my employer requires quarantine or vaccine. Hopefully this doesn't delay too many people, and the longer we go the greater the covered period will become.

I don’t think the CDC officially revised the travel quarantine recommendations for vaccinated people but I assume that will happen. The 3 month thing is based on the fact that they only have 3 months of official data on vaccinated people staying immune. I assume that is expanded as they confirm immunity lasts more than 3 months.

 

[correcaminos]

My coworker got his 2nd shot yesterday, 68 and still works more days than many of us. Glad because he's like a grandpa to me and I'd hate for him to get sick. Now I can ease up on some of the coworkers who get too close to him with masks off.

From my standpoint the CDC has to be careful with their quarantine requirements in another way. Say I wanted to travel August 15th, the current waiver for quarantine when exposed to a confirmed positive is up to 3 months from last dose. It would make more sense for me to delay getting the vaccine until I'm in that 3 month window as I'm more likely to come into contact then vs with my current precautions at home. Same if my employer requires quarantine or vaccine. Hopefully this doesn't delay too many people, and the longer we go the greater the covered period will become.

I think the window will open as the trial runs. We have people 6 months now testing for antibodies. I go in 3 weeks myself for the next draw. We'll see it grow as numbers come in.

 

[Stitch826]

Sorry to disappoint you but we are on the same page more often than not these days...unless you bring up Trump

At the end of the day my simple opinion right now has evolved to this: once we get mostly everyone vaccinated there‘s no reason we won’t be returning to somewhat normal behavior. If that doesn‘t happen then what‘s the point. I’m not planning to be immune and then still sit around in a mask and not see my family or eat in a restaurant or visit WDW. I accepted not doing those things for a really long time when there were no vaccines and it was the only good way to keep my loved ones safe but I’m not going to be doing it indefinitely just because.

I simply don’t see why things can’t be back to close to normal within the next couple months. The vast majority of hospitalizations and deaths from Covid are in the 65 and over age group, as well as those with compromised immune systems. These are also the groups receiving the vaccinations currently. Covid cases and deaths have been falling already and will continue to do so as more people, especially high risk ones, get their shots.

Obviously Covid can still affect those who are younger and otherwise healthy, but we can’t live this way forever. Tens of thousands of people die from the flu every year. Once the elderly and high risk patients have an adequate chance to get their vaccines, it’s time to return to normalcy. Yes, technically they can still be infected, but the studies showed that the vaccinations prevent severe illness and death.

 

[Flugell]

With how quickly we are vaccinating compared to the world I fully expect us to be normal before the rest of the world. As much as WDW enjoys its international travel, the majority of its customers are still Americans. They will experience more high/low seasons (Jan-Feb, May, Aug being low; everything else being high) but yes I expect them to be normal.

It’s not like all international travel will be halted, but I think it’s highly likely the US enacts a vaccine or mandatory quarantine requirement, and don’t be surprised if some vaccines aren’t deemed appropriate over here (sinovac maybe AstraZeneca.)

International travel will not be normal for years, I think we are looking at 2023 at the earliest.

The latest figures I can find (2013) state that 18-22% of WDW visitors are from overseas. That is roughly 1 in 5. So no WDW will not be back to normal!
For your information the U.K. are also vaccinating at a very impressive rate.
I have no problem with vaccination passports throughout the world for every required situation, though from what I have read on this forum this would not be acceptable to the majority of citizens of the USA. From your response I surmise it would be acceptable to impose this requirement on visitors from overseas. Not a very democratic (true meaning not a political party) outlook. I do however find your dismissal of other vaccines than those approved by the USA somewhat arrogant. Astra Zeneca has been approved by the WHO so I would imagine that the USA would have to acknowledge the effectiveness of the vaccine even if they continue to ignore it in perpetuity!
I think my “bitterness” comes primarily from my longing to return to Florida whilst still (advancing years) able to enjoy it. I feel sure that WDW will be open to American citizens to enjoy in some form of normality for many months or possibly years before overseas visitors are allowed back. The bottom line is I’m jealous!!

 

[JAKECOTCenter]

I simply don’t see why things can’t be back to close to normal within the next couple months. The vast majority of hospitalizations and deaths from Covid are in the 65 and over age group, as well as those with compromised immune systems. These are also the groups receiving the vaccinations currently. Covid cases and deaths have been falling already and will continue to do so as more people, especially high risk ones, get their shots.

Obviously Covid can still affect those who are younger and otherwise healthy, but we can’t live this way forever. Tens of thousands of people die from the flu every year. Once the elderly and high risk patients have an adequate chance to get their vaccines, it’s time to return to normalcy. Yes, technically they can still be infected, but the studies showed that the vaccinations prevent severe illness and death.

Although the 3rd surge is over, we’re still averaging 70 thousand cases a day. We need that down considerably for normal to come back. We’re getting closer, but we still have a ways to go

 

[Stitch826]

There was pre-COVID-19 life and now there will be post COVID-19 arrival life. It is interesting how the numbers are strongly going to the getting better side of things rather quickly. I just hope as things improve the mask and other protocols are retained in at least some form because they are effective in reducing exposure to other infections. All those other illnesses did not take a vacation because COVID-19 came on scene.

If you or others want to continue wearing masks in public to prevent getting a cold or flu each year, that’s your right to do so. However, we’ve survived for thousands of years not wearing masks and I believe there is no reason for government to mandate them after this is over. I’d rather deal with the occasional cold or flu than wear a mask everywhere I go.

 

[DisneyDebRob]

If you or others want to continue wearing masks in public to prevent getting a cold or flu each year, that’s your right to do so. However, we’ve survived for thousands of years not wearing masks and I believe there is no reason for government to mandate them after this is over. I’d rather deal with the occasional cold or flu than wear a mask everywhere I go.

The poster said he hopes they stay around in some form, not a government mandate as you are saying. I agree with him.. if you want to wear one post Covid go for it. There will never be a government mandate.. now or when it’s over.