Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[DisneyDebRob]

Fauci on Meet the Press this morning. I watched it this morning, had a few things about restrictions being lifted to early and many other things about the vaccine.Full interview is on YouTube if you care to watch. Quick article on a few things he said.

Redirect Notice

 

[GoofGoof]

2 days in a row now of 2.4M doses administered with the 7 day rolling average at 1.74M a day. If we continue for the month of March at a rate of 2.4M doses a day that’s 75M doses administered plus 20M from JnJ. Remember when 100M doses in 100 days was the goal...we may hit 100M doses in March alone

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

 

[DisneyDebRob]

March 11 for shot 1...unless they run out of shots again

Good for you. I know we live close together but I can’t get one anywhere. I’m on countless lists.. still waiting for a call. Got notification in my email yesterday and got excited.. but it was just saying they are now working on the people who signed up on January 15th. I’m at February 3rd. I’m looking at December maybe.

 

[Chi84]

Walgreens just released tons of appointments in Chicago and surrounding suburbs.

 

[DCBaker]

Numbers are out - there were 118 new reported deaths, along with 8 Non-Florida Resident deaths.

 

[DCBaker]

Current Florida vaccine report -

 

[GoofGoof]

Good for you. I know we live close together but I can’t get one anywhere. I’m on countless lists.. still waiting for a call. Got notification in my email yesterday and got excited.. but it was just saying they are now working on the people who signed up on January 15th. I’m at February 3rd. I’m looking at December maybe.

I got an appointment through Rite Aid when they started that program where the manufacturers were shipping straight to pharmacies but my appointment got cancelled due to the snow storms and rescheduled for 3 weeks later. My parents just got their appointments for Tuesday through a hospital in Philadelphia. It’s been hard for them since they are 74 and Philly hasn’t opened up yet to 65-74 but they opened to people with health conditions so they qualified that way.

My co-worker said his mother is a nurse and volunteering at St Mary’s hospital in Bucks county and they have a sign up list. I also heard some people having luck with St Luke’s hospital in the Lehigh Valley. A little further to drive but they seem to be cranking out doses now. Otherwise it’s clicking and hoping to get an appointment that opens up. Good luck finding one. I am hopeful with the manufacturers ramping up and JnJ coming on line things will get a little easier. I need to get my wife in soon or I’m going to have to take over full time grocery shopping duties

 

[danlb_2000]

Yes, but those relaxed restrictions occurred before vaccinations were available, let alone vaccinated.

But we don't have anywhere near enough people vaccinated fully yet to suppress another spike if restrictions are lifted.

 

[GoofGoof]

But we don't have anywhere near enough people vaccinated fully yet to suppress another spike if restrictions are lifted.

Yes, right now that is definitely true. We have to keep focused now and hang on until the vaccine rollout is further along. Removing restrictions right now is counterproductive. The lower community spread is kept now the faster the vaccines can work and at some point we can relax restrictions for good.

 

[Communicora]

Yes, right now that is definitely true. We have to keep focused now and hang on until the vaccine rollout is done. Removing restrictions right now is counterproductive. The lower community spread is kept now the faster the vaccines can work and at some point we can relax restrictions for good.

Exactly. I know we are all tired but we need to hang in there a little bit longer so we can avoid a 4th wave with the new variants. This is worth a read.

The Coronavirus Is Threatening a Comeback. Here’s How to Stop It. (Published 2021)

Many scientists are expecting another rise in infections. But this time the surge will be blunted by vaccines and, hopefully, widespread caution. By summer, Americans may be looking at a return to normal life.

www.nytimes.com

​

The B.1.1.7 variant is thought to be more contagious and more deadly, and it is expected to become the predominant form of the virus in the United States by late March. The number of cases with the variant in the United States has risen from 76 in 12 states as of Jan. 13 to more than 1,800 in 45 states now. Actual infections may be much higher because of inadequate surveillance efforts in the United States.​

​

Buoyed by the shrinking rates over all, however, governors are lifting restrictions across the United States and are under enormous pressure to reopen completely. Should that occur, B.1.1.7 and the other variants are likely to explode.​

​

“Everybody is tired, and everybody wants things to open up again,” Dr. Tuite said. “Bending to political pressure right now, when things are really headed in the right direction, is going to end up costing us in the long term.”​

​

and an archive link if you get the paywall https://archive.is/trozK

 

[havoc315]

I agree that they shouldn’t tell people we will be normal by Summer. Nothing should be that absolute. My preference would be to tell people that if everything goes as planned on vaccine deliveries and if enough people agree to get the vaccine then its possible we could see a relaxing of restrictions and a return to something close to normal as early as sometime this summer. That’s not promising anything, it’s just laying out what could happen if things lineup right and people get vaccinated ASAP. IMHO nobody should be predicting anything as far out as 10 to 12 months from now. That is counterproductive and is a negative towards vaccine acceptance for sure. If the true belief is things won’t go back to normal until 2022 they are better off saying we just don’t know when things will return to normal but the sooner we all get vaccinated the sooner we can end the pandemic.

On the variant front I don’t think the goal or target should assume a variant situation that’s not currently happening. Right now the South African and other variants are not the dominant ones in the US. It’s possible they become dominant and I’d be OK if they mention that as a possibility but we shouldn’t set a target of end of year in case that happens. I’d rather hear what the target is based on current circumstances and then have them update that target based on what happens with the variants. If by June a variant forces us to push plans back then so be it you update in June. I still believe the relaxing and removal of restrictions will still be based on case numbers and not vaccine doses administered. If the variants cause case numbers to spike then we delay removal of restrictions at that time. If cases continue to drop despite the existence of variants then we continue with the plans.

Variants are already becoming an issue in NY. It is happening.

That’s not to say we won’t defeat Covid by summer/fall. Just saying it’s yet another wrench in the works.

I think there is also an issue with the definition of “normal.” We may never ever return to the old normal. Temp checks, vaccine passports, masks on public transit.. lots of “new normal” possibilities.

And of course the biggest certainty is the rate of vaccination once we have enough supply — do enough people willingly get vaccinated.

I do wish we were planning on extensive use of vaccination passports. As Israel is doing, it gives you the certainty you’re seeking: As of September 15th (for example). you can go to a concert, full capacity restaurant, museum, theme park — but only if you’re vaccinated.

 

[havoc315]

I've said it before and I'll say it again, the public was sold on masks and social distancing so that the rate of spread would remain at one that the healthcare systems could mange without crashing and further the snowball effect of hospitalizations and deaths.
We did not accept these measures to eliminate the virus.

Speak for yourself. I, and everyone I know, adopted these measures in order to reduce the virus to the greatest extent possible until we could reach herd immunity or eliminate the virus.

We accepted the measures, as a means to control the spread until a combination of vaccines and natural immunity reached a point where would could carry on with our lives in a pre-covid manner.

Yes— and that “point” is herd immunity or very very close to it.

 

[TrainsOfDisney]

I think there is also an issue with the definition of “normal.” We may never ever return to the old normal. Temp checks, vaccine passports, masks on public transit.. lots of “new normal” possibilities.

This is true. Look at how security screenings are now “normal” when flying, going to concerts, sports events, and theme parks.

And if we are going purely by numbers which so many like to quote... how many people die each year in mass shootings and terrorist attacks?

 

[havoc315]

correct. You used the word “eliminated”. Covid will never be eliminated, at least not for awhile. To me and most others, elimination conjures a smallpox level scenario.

Fair enough. I can use greater precision.
Ive seen people suggest “we can’t get rid of it, but once people have the option of a vaccine, that’s good enough.”
We may be able to get this a small pox and polio level, but that might not be likely — at least not for years.
But with reasonable measures for a reasonable time frame, and sufficient vaccination and patience, we can get this down to measles/mumps levels. Isolated outbreaks of a few hundred cases per year to a few thousand per year. Instead of thousands per day. With patience and adequate vaccination levels, we can probably be there before the end of the year.

 

[tallica]

The amount of misinformed people.. still at this point.. just boggles the mind. Either they don’t want the facts or when someone presents them with it, they hear Charlie Brown’s teacher. I don’t get it.

That is true for both sides the reality is somewhere in the middle.

 

[GimpYancIent]

Fair enough. I can use greater precision.
Ive seen people suggest “we can’t get rid of it, but once people have the option of a vaccine, that’s good enough.”
We may be able to get this a small pox and polio level, but that might not be likely — at least not for years.
But with reasonable measures for a reasonable time frame, and sufficient vaccination and patience, we can get this down to measles/mumps levels. Isolated outbreaks of a few hundred cases per year to a few thousand per year. Instead of thousands per day. With patience and adequate vaccination levels, we can probably be there before the end of the year.

There was pre-COVID-19 life and now there will be post COVID-19 arrival life. It is interesting how the numbers are strongly going to the getting better side of things rather quickly. I just hope as things improve the mask and other protocols are retained in at least some form because they are effective in reducing exposure to other infections. All those other illnesses did not take a vacation because COVID-19 came on scene.

 

[GoofGoof]

Variants are already becoming an issue in NY. It is happening.

That’s not to say we won’t defeat Covid by summer/fall. Just saying it’s yet another wrench in the works.

I think there is also an issue with the definition of “normal.” We may never ever return to the old normal. Temp checks, vaccine passports, masks on public transit.. lots of “new normal” possibilities.

And of course the biggest certainty is the rate of vaccination once we have enough supply — do enough people willingly get vaccinated.

I do wish we were planning on extensive use of vaccination passports. As Israel is doing, it gives you the certainty you’re seeking: As of September 15th (for example). you can go to a concert, full capacity restaurant, museum, theme park — but only if you’re vaccinated.

Various variants exist and are here in the US, that’s not disputed. Right now the variants aren‘t the dominant strain anywhere in the US. There’s no guarantee they become dominant and require a 3rd dose of vaccine. It’s possible that happens and it’s possible it doesn’t. That’s all I’m saying.

I agree that one of the biggest potential obstacles to a return to normal is vaccine hesitancy which is why the administration needs to be very cautious not to present a situation where the vaccines don’t actually change anything and there’s no return to normal until 2022. That is very counterproductive to getting everyone vaccinated quickly.

 

[dizneyingaffect]

FL Gov EO updates vaccination requirements to now include "persons whom [doctors] deem to be extremely vulnerable to COVID-19"

https://www.flgov.com/wp-content/uploads/orders/2021/EO_21-46.pdf

 

[havoc315]

Various variants exist and are here in the US, that’s not disputed. Right now the variants aren‘t the dominant strain anywhere in the US. There’s no guarantee they become dominant and require a 3rd dose of vaccine. It’s possible that happens and it’s possible it doesn’t. That’s all I’m saying.

I agree that one of the biggest potential obstacles to a return to normal is vaccine hesitancy which is why the administration needs to be very cautious not to present a situation where the vaccines don’t actually change anything and there’s no return to normal until 2022. That is very counterproductive to getting everyone vaccinated quickly.

Variants are already being blamed for the stalling of any decline — and possible rise — in infections in NY.
No evidence that the vaccines are ineffective against the variants. But more contagious variants that respond a bit less to the vaccine, has an effect of increasing the vaccination level for herd immunity. (Ie, maybe we could have reached herd immunity at 65% last year. But with newer variants, we won’t get there until 85%.. hypothetically). So even assuming the vaccines “work” on the newer variants, they can still slow us down.

Problem with vaccine hesitancy and the issue you describe: if the message becomes, “you can go back to normal once vaccines are available in a couple of months” — you’ll potentially get a lot of people with the attitude, “well... I don’t need to be 1 of the people vaccinated. We are going back to normal soon, whether I personally get the vaccine or not.”
That’s why I personally like the vaccine passports (but they would be too controversial here). “Yes, you can go back to normal soon — as long as you have proof you’ve been fully vaccinated and you keep up with booster

 

[Flugell]

Sorry to be rather selfish but can WDW or indeed the USA in general return to normal until overseas visitors are allowed/welcomed once more?