Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[Tom P.]

Measles exists. But down to a couple hundred cases per year in the USA. Mumps, a couple thousand cases.

and that’s when we can return to normal with Covid.

We *can* return to normal any time we choose to. Whether we *should* or not is a separate question.

I still maintain, rightly or wrongly, that there is a limited time period during which people are going to be willing to accept mitigation measures. I think we're almost there as it is in the United States. I stand by my opinion that masks are largely, though not entirely, gone in the United States by sometime during this summer. Once we get that far into the vaccination effort, people just aren't going to tolerate it anymore. Nor will people continue to tolerate being told they cannot gather with their family and friends and enjoy their lives the way they always have. They are just going to stop complying. And there is no way those measures are going to be successfully enforced if people are unwilling.

Again, I'm not debating what *should* happen here. That's a separate conversation. I'm telling you what I think *will* happen.

 

[Tom P.]

There will indeed be some return to normalcy over the summer.
For example, you may get baseball stadiums at 25% capacity + masks.

But we aren’t returning to a maskless 100% for at least another 6 months, likely a bit longer.

Well, to be fair, 6 months from now is... summer.

 

[havoc315]

I agree. We live in the real world. (Never thought I would be typing those words on a Disney site )

This is what I was hearing 10-12 months ago. “Walt Disney World would never mandate masks!! In the real world, people won’t like them in the heat!”

Heck... I had a little argument with Jim Hill back in April.. I told him WDW would likely get rid of fireworks and character meets for the duration of the pandemic. He argued WDW would never get rid of those things for any extended period.

I was debating back in April... saying WDW would likely mandate masks, scale back entertainment, and dramatically limit capacity. I had a lot of people argue against me that “those restrictions won’t work in the real world.”

yet here we are... a year later.

largely the same people who claimed there would never be restrictions are now the ones saying, “the restrictions will be gone in 2 months!”

 

[havoc315]

Well, to be fair, 6 months from now is... summer.

Yes... best case scenario, we could see normalcy by September.. the last 3 weeks of summer.
Pessimistically, could be December to January.
(Personally... I suspect the more optimistic side... But if there isn’t enough voluntary vaccination then it will be much longer).

 

[Chi84]

This is what I was hearing 10-12 months ago. “Walt Disney World would never mandate masks!! In the real world, people won’t like them in the heat!”

Heck... I had a little argument with Jim Hill back in April.. I told him WDW would likely get rid of fireworks and character meets for the duration of the pandemic. He argued WDW would never get rid of those things for any extended period.

I was debating back in April... saying WDW would likely mandate masks, scale back entertainment, and dramatically limit capacity. I had a lot of people argue against me that “those restrictions won’t work in the real world.”

yet here we are... a year later.

largely the same people who claimed there would never be restrictions are now the ones saying, “the restrictions will be gone in 2 months!”

The vaccine changed things. Drastically. In April no one had a way to stop the spread or protect themselves.

 

[havoc315]

We *can* return to normal any time we choose to. Whether we *should* or not is a separate question.

I still maintain, rightly or wrongly, that there is a limited time period during which people are going to be willing to accept mitigation measures. I think we're almost there as it is in the United States. I stand by my opinion that masks are largely, though not entirely, gone in the United States by sometime during this summer. Once we get that far into the vaccination effort, people just aren't going to tolerate it anymore. Nor will people continue to tolerate being told they cannot gather with their family and friends and enjoy their lives the way they always have. They are just going to stop complying. And there is no way those measures are going to be successfully enforced if people are unwilling.

Again, I'm not debating what *should* happen here. That's a separate conversation. I'm telling you what I think *will* happen.

Gatherings between fully vaccinated people will be quite safe by spring. You can have extended family maskless gatherings by summer as long as every person present is vaccinated.

Thus, it will be a gradual return to normalcy. Not saying we will have the exact same restrictions in summer as now.

But large maskless gatherings will be among the last things to come back, and might not be back until very late 2021, or even 2022.

 

[danlb_2000]

This is what I was hearing 10-12 months ago. “Walt Disney World would never mandate masks!! In the real world, people won’t like them in the heat!”

Heck... I had a little argument with Jim Hill back in April.. I told him WDW would likely get rid of fireworks and character meets for the duration of the pandemic. He argued WDW would never get rid of those things for any extended period.

I was debating back in April... saying WDW would likely mandate masks, scale back entertainment, and dramatically limit capacity. I had a lot of people argue against me that “those restrictions won’t work in the real world.”

yet here we are... a year later.

largely the same people who claimed there would never be restrictions are now the ones saying, “the restrictions will be gone in 2 months!”

What a company is willing to do, and what individual people are willing to do are two totally different things.

 

[havoc315]

The vaccine changed things. Drastically.

Yes it did. It gives us the light at the END of the tunnel. But still have to go through the tunnel.

Before the vaccine, there was no real path to herd immunity. We now have the path. Once we reach the end of that path, we can go back to normal.

 

[danlb_2000]

Measles exists. But down to a couple hundred cases per year in the USA. Mumps, a couple thousand cases.

and that’s when we can return to normal with Covid.

Like it or not, things will return to normal long before we reach that benchmark.

 

[havoc315]

What a company is willing to do, and what individual people are willing to do are two totally different things.

Both the company and individuals have proven they are willing to do far more than the naysayers thought.

As Chapek himself is saying he has no doubt that there will be social distancing and masking at Disney for the rest of the year.

 

[havoc315]

Like it or not, things will return to normal long before we reach that benchmark.

Not at WDW. Not at a Federal level. And not in responsible states and communities.

Chapek said Disney won’t get rid of social distancing and masking until AFTER we reach herd immunity.

 

[Chi84]

Like it or not, things will return to normal long before we reach that benchmark.

I would be absolutely thrilled if we could get people to comply with Biden’s request to wear masks for the first 100 days of his administration.

 

[correcaminos]

Measles still exists( Disneyland was s place where it spread a few years ago when people infected went there), and in Pakistan Polio still exists. I have not kept up with mumps.

Smallpox has been eliminated in the wild.

More of an fyi on mumps

A Mumps Outbreak among Fully Vaccinated People

This multistate problem carries implications for our responses to future epidemics

www.scientificamerican.com

Polio is still in Afghanistan as well as some nations in Africa is the oral vaccine form. That weakened form can spread after mutation to others who are in under-vaccinated areas.

 

[correcaminos]

There will indeed be some return to normalcy over the summer.
For example, you may get baseball stadiums at 25% capacity + masks.

But we aren’t returning to a maskless 100% for at least another 6 months, likely a bit longer.

You realize some areas are not this restricted now, right?

 

[havoc315]

You realize some areas are not this restricted now, right?

of course. There are areas where idiocy is ruling. WDW is fortunately not one of those areas.

 

[TrainsOfDisney]

Nor will people continue to tolerate being told they cannot gather with their family and friends and enjoy their lives the way they always have

“People” haven’t been doing that in the USA this entire time.

 

[Tom P.]

Not at WDW. Not at a Federal level. And not in responsible states and communities.

Chapek said Disney won’t get rid of social distancing and masking until AFTER we reach herd immunity.

The federal level has virtually nothing to do with it. That's why people who hoped Biden was going to issue a national mask mandate or impose other sorts of restrictions have been disappointed. This is entirely managed at the state level. There is very little that the federal government can impose centrally.

In many states, restrictions are already being relaxed. Mine is one of them. For example, permitting larger social gatherings and having schools back for full, in-person, five day per week classes. Less restrictions on restaurants and retail stores. And so forth.

I don't mean this to be rude, but I believe your expectation is not matching the reality that we are seeing throughout the country. States are already starting to relax restrictions and people are already starting to resume things they had stopped because of the drastically lower case numbers we are seeing. When we see vaccination ramp up to the levels they are predicting by May, June, July, etc., you are going to see most of the restrictions drop away. Guaranteed.

 

[havoc315]

More of an fyi on mumps

A Mumps Outbreak among Fully Vaccinated People

This multistate problem carries implications for our responses to future epidemics

www.scientificamerican.com

Polio is still in Afghanistan as well as some nations in Africa is the oral vaccine form. That weakened form can spread after mutation to others who are in under-vaccinated areas.

And I wouldn’t recommend WDW open a theme park in Afghanistan. How is polio doing in the US where we have vaccinated to herd immunity?

There has not been a case of polio in the US since 1979.

The mumps article is the exact evidence why you can’t have vaccine alone. Vaccine works great if you have a widely vaccinated public and low levels of disease. Then outbreaks remain small and controlled. But first, you need to get to the point of low disease levels.

 

[havoc315]

The federal level has virtually nothing to do with it. That's why people who hoped Biden was going to issue a national mask mandate or impose other sorts of restrictions have been disappointed. This is entirely managed at the state level. There is very little that the federal government can impose centrally.

In many states, restrictions are already being relaxed. Mine is one of them. For example, permitting larger social gatherings and having schools back for full, in-person, five day per week classes. Less restrictions on restaurants and retail stores. And so forth.

I don't mean this to be rude, but I believe your expectation is not matching the reality that we are seeing throughout the country. States are already starting to relax restrictions and people are already starting to resume things they had stopped because of the drastically lower case numbers we are seeing. When we see vaccination ramp up to the levels they are predicting by May, June, July, etc., you are going to see most of the restrictions drop away. Guaranteed.

The Federal level is critical — WDW has already shown they follow the CDC guidelines, not the state restrictions.

 

[DisneyCane]

Nobody saying mitigation efforts will continue longer is making this argument.


Every post about continued mitigation is specifically about this point.

There is no direct relationship between the vaccine on stopping mitigations. Either when enough is available or when an individual gets vaccinated.

The relationship is when community spread is reduced enough, then mitigation efforts can be reduced and stopped.

Enough vaccine distribution should cause community spread to drop, which will then allow mitigation to stop.

Nobody doesn't include the argument being made by the poster I replied to.

If the vaccine is available to anybody who wants it and proves out to be as effective (especially in preventing serious illness or death) as it looks and 30% of people choose not to be vaccinated, I don't really care how much community spread there is. I'm not going to do anything to try and protect people who choose not to be vaccinated. We don't "mitigate" against the flu and there is rampant community spread of it every year. It just causes a lower percentage of the infected to require hospitalization or die than COVID-19. If the vaccine makes the vaccinated get similar levels of illness from COVID-19 as they would from the flu why would "mitigation" be required?