Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[Horizons '83]

Florida has seen a steady drop in cases for over a month now but still not seeing a significant drop in deaths.

View attachment 533296

The 2 week average is starting to show the corresponding decline, albeit not as dramatic as cases.

 

[MisterPenguin]

The 2 week average is starting to show the corresponding decline, albeit not as dramatic as cases.

View attachment 533309

That decline doesn't represent all the deaths. A good chunk of deaths are reported up to two weeks after they happen. Over the next two weeks, back-reported deaths will raise that decline.

 

[ToTBellHop]

Take a look at the surge in the Dakotas in the fall. Spread is not just an urban issue.
And don't confusing vaccination with elimination of cases.

You don't need to vaccinate 100% of people to eliminate 100% of cases. First off, even if you vaccinated 100%, you could still get a small number of cases. But you also get diminishing returns with a greater level of vaccination. You can eliminate MORE than 50% of cases, and especially MORE than 50% of deaths, by vaccinating 50% of FEWER of people in a community. Especially if you target the vaccine to those most at risk.

Let's do a rough hypothetic illustration. Two communities of equal population, each averaging 100 deaths per month.
If you vaccinate 50% of the community, targeting those vaccines to those at highest risk... Factoring in that you are getting closer to herd immunity... You can bring those deaths down from 100 per month, down to 20 per month.
So if you vaccinated both communities, at 50%.... You'd get down to a total of 40 deaths per month.
Let's say you vaccinates 100% of 1 community -- bringing it down to 1 death per month. 0% of the second community -- so they still have 100 deaths per month.
In this example, you'd still have 101 total deaths per month.

Point being.... you'll actual eliminate far more cases and deaths by spreading around the vaccine to all communities, than making it all or none.

Thank you. This, exactly.

 

[JAKECOTCenter]

The weather delays aren’t good. In fact it’s downright awful. But luckily it’s temporary. Thawing weather by next week should rebound vaccine supply. Nobody said this would be easy. This is one of those bumps in the road unfortunately

 

[Horizons '83]

That decline doesn't represent all the deaths. A good chunk of deaths are reported up to two weeks after they happen. Over the next two weeks, back-reported deaths will raise that decline.

Understood, but to be consistent with most models, the 2 week average is typically what most people go by. All in all, they are very slowly coming down, but not at the rate we would like to see or that other states are seeing. I am assuming its due to the high percentage of elderly that live in the state.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Deaths do lag cases...
Florida reports deaths slower than many other states, waiting for greater confirmation than other states require.

Florida also likely underreports deaths. They take the approach of, "it's only a Covid death if we are 100% certain it's a Covid death. Otherwise, it doesn't count." Other states take the approach of, "if it's more likely than not a Covid death, then it counts as a Covid death."

There is often a misperception that deaths can be narrowed down to a single cause. In fact, most deaths have multiple contributing factors. The majority of deaths are ultimately caused by cardiac arrest -- the heart stops -- but that doesn't mean most deaths are caused by a heart attack. Someone may, (non-Covid example), die from a cardiac arrest. But the cardiac arrest is secondary to kidney failure. And the kidney failure is due to multi-organ failure from sepsis. And the sepsis is due to a bacterial infection. And the body didn't properly respond due to the bacteria, because the person has an auto-immune disease. And the bacteria was introduced when someone was scratching their eczema. So the death was caused by eczema, auto-immune disease, sepsis, kidney failure, and finally cardiac arrest.

Yeah...I agree with all that...

...but you missed my joke

 

[Disney Experience]

Ahh, the partisan politics. Biden has incentive to exaggerate the improvements attributed to his plan, while anti-Biden elements would want to dismiss them.

It's completely true that vaccine delivery and actual jabs were rising even before Biden took office. They would have continued to rise under a Trump Presidency as well.

Where Biden and his team actually have improved things a bit:
-- Greater transparency and communication with the states, so they actually know how much vaccine to reasonably expect in the near future.
-- use of the DPA to increase production of necessary elements for vaccinations, but we probably aren't really seeing the effect of that output yet.
-- Greater Federal role in the final delivery of the vaccine, the actual jabs. But we haven't really seen the impact of this yet. The Federal government is just starting to set up FEMA vaccination sites. But this change will likely raise the ceiling of jabs we can administer a day. Thing is, we hadn't hit the existing ceiling yet. So this is a change that could have a positive impact, but we aren't actually seeing that impact yet. (They are opening a joint Federal/State super-site near me on March 3rd, for example)

I pretty much agree with your post. I think the gains can mostly be attributed to apolitical events. It is mostly the work of capitalistic Pharmaceutical companies that worked to achieve the product and production. Most of them are doing it at cost (for now).[So not a pure capitalist move on their part].

I am not sure of any specific instance of Biden using DPA yet to deal with supply chain. (Even Trump's administration said they would do it, if needed (Pfizer did not want to share their supply chain or process with the Government, fearing loss of trade secrets, so it is harder to use DPA to help their supply chain, unless they tell you what they need). But I do not know of any vaccine related use of DPA in the former administration either).

Currently it takes four months from start to finish to produce a Pfizer vaccine. So any increases we have seen at our current date started in production in October. Nothing in the new administration has done has shortened it, since they have been in power only since Jan 20. Assigning any of the increasing doses due to the new administration is not logical. But stating that the increases are due to the work of the last administration would be wrong too. Unless specific DPA use has occurred, the only thing that either administration has done is to help the companies financially for research and/or financially for production (Either by direct funding or just by being a large guaranteed purchaser).

Pfizer's new optimization is neither a result of Trump nor Biden. It is the result of professionals who understand the production systems and find optimization (Which then the executives agree that those optimization be implemented).

Pfizer expects to cut COVID-19 vaccine production time by close to 50% as production ramps up, efficiencies increase

As the nation revs up its coronavirus vaccination programs, the increase could help relieve bottlenecks caused by vaccine shortages.

www.usatoday.com

 

[Disney Experience]

Here is a paper that provides quantification of the public investment in various vaccines, as well as the various agencies that have been involved.

(The data in the paper is a bit dated [i.e. paper publish date is definitely months after paper was written](I assume peer review etc.)

Warp-Speed Covid-19 Vaccine Development: Beneficiaries of Maturation in Biopharmaceutical Technologies and Public-Private Partnerships

It is anticipated that effective vaccines will enable the resumption of social and economic normalcy. Current calls for masking, social distancing and…

www.sciencedirect.com

 

[oceanbreeze77]

WOW! I wonder what other places are impacted

 

[JoeCamel]

WOW! I wonder what other places are impacted

Lots, UPS and FedEx are having real issues getting stuff out of their hubs.

 

[lisa12000]

Exclusive: The Covid vaccines data that can pave way to freedom

First 'real world' figures show Oxford and Pfizer jabs cut two thirds of infections and transmissions

www.telegraph.co.uk

Being reported in papers tonight. Behind a paywall unfortunately but basically says that real world data from the uk vaccine roll out shows both pfizer and AstraZeneca cut transmission by 2/3 after just one dose.


‘Vaccines appear to cut Covid transmissions and infections by two-thirds according to the first "real world data" examining their impact, The Telegraph can disclose.

Key data being handed to Boris Johnson as he finalises a roadmap out of lockdown shows that just one dose of either the Oxford or Pfizer vaccines has such an effect on all age groups.

Mr Johnson and his scientific advisers are expected to examine key findings showing the impact of the jabs on transmission, infection, hospitalisations and deaths.

Whitehall sources said the studies would be a crucial part of deliberations over Britain's route out of lockdown and that all the findings so far were "very encouraging".

Separate data shows that Covid cases are falling most rapidly among the oldest, with care home outbreaks almost halving in a week.

The statistics appear to vindicate Britain's strategy of vaccinating by age order, with cases among those over the age of 80 falling by 38 per cent in seven days’

 

[havoc315]

I pretty much agree with your post. I think the gains can mostly be attributed to apolitical events. It is mostly the work of capitalistic Pharmaceutical companies that worked to achieve the product and production. Most of them are doing it at cost (for now).[So not a pure capitalist move on their part].

I am not sure of any specific instance of Biden using DPA yet to deal with supply chain. (Even Trump's administration said they would do it, if needed (Pfizer did not want to share their supply chain or process with the Government, fearing loss of trade secrets, so it is harder to use DPA to help their supply chain, unless they tell you what they need). But I do not know of any vaccine related use of DPA in the former administration either).

Currently it takes four months from start to finish to produce a Pfizer vaccine. So any increases we have seen at our current date started in production in October. Nothing in the new administration has done has shortened it, since they have been in power only since Jan 20. Assigning any of the increasing doses due to the new administration is not logical. But stating that the increases are due to the work of the last administration would be wrong too. Unless specific DPA use has occurred, the only thing that either administration has done is to help the companies financially for research and/or financially for production (Either by direct funding or just by being a large guaranteed purchaser).

Pfizer's new optimization is neither a result of Trump nor Biden. It is the result of professionals who understand the production systems and find optimization (Which then the executives agree that those optimization be implemented).

Pfizer expects to cut COVID-19 vaccine production time by close to 50% as production ramps up, efficiencies increase

As the nation revs up its coronavirus vaccination programs, the increase could help relieve bottlenecks caused by vaccine shortages.

www.usatoday.com

I tend to agree. I wouldn’t quite say that the drug companies are acting “non capitalist.” While they are effectively delivering vaccines at “cost,” there are Long term profits.

As to Biden’s use of the DPA...
See here:

The Biden admin's latest steps to ramp up Covid-19 vaccine production and distribution

The Biden administration on Friday announced plans to use the Defense Production Act and active-duty servicemembers to bolster America's response to the country's coronavirus epidemic. Here's how.

www.advisory.com

But I doubt any of the increased vaccine supply to date is the result of anything Biden has done.

Real world... it takes months for the policies of a new government to have impact. (Depending on the policy)
But politically... they try to take credit form anything good that happens on their watch, whether it’s due to their policies or not. ( Trump tried to take credit for stock market growth and job growth from the day he was elected, 2 months before any of his policies were implemented). And politically, voters will tend to blame them for anything bad during their presidency, even if it’s a left over effect from the prior administration. (And even if it’s entire independent of any government action).

 

[flutas]

Lots, UPS and FedEx are having real issues getting stuff out of their hubs.

USPS as well, this is actually the first time I can recall USPS just shutting down and saying "we aren't delivering mail until further notice."

 

[Disney Experience]

Interesting twist to the zip code vaccination story previously discussed in this thread: (The commissioner was the one who limited it to two zip codes; and also jumped the line for vaccination for herself and a few VIPs)

Florida county commissioner limited vaccine drive to the two richest zip codes and then created a 'VIP list'

A Manatee County, Florida, commissioner broke protocol for equitable vaccine distribution, which she had previously voted in favor of, when planning a vaccine drive initiated by Gov. Ron DeSantis.

www.cnn.com

 

[lazyboy97o]

USPS as well, this is actually the first time I can recall USPS just shutting down and saying "we aren't delivering mail until further notice."

 

[Nubs70]

USPS as well, this is actually the first time I can recall USPS just shutting down and saying "we aren't delivering mail until further notice."

Basically all trucking is messed up . I've already have extended lead times by 1 week up from 2.

 

[JAKECOTCenter]

Did 1.6 million shots today despite the storm delays. Rebound will happen

 

[Virtual Toad]

Interesting twist to the zip code vaccination story previously discussed in this thread: (The commissioner was the one who limited it to two zip codes; and also jumped the line for vaccination for herself and a few VIPs)

Florida county commissioner limited vaccine drive to the two richest zip codes and then created a 'VIP list'

A Manatee County, Florida, commissioner broke protocol for equitable vaccine distribution, which she had previously voted in favor of, when planning a vaccine drive initiated by Gov. Ron DeSantis.

www.cnn.com

And apparently, Rex Jensen, the developer DeSantis called to set up the whole thing, was one of the VIPs.

Taking life-saving vaccine doses away from the general public for personal use (and political gain?) in the middle of a pandemic should be a criminal act. One the Governor of Florida, a rich developer, and the Chair of the Manatee County Commission are now all directly implicated in.

From the Sarasota Herald-Tribune:

"Manatee County Commission Chair Vanessa Baugh was criticized by fellow commissioners Thursday for creating a priority list of people to get the COVID-19 vaccine at a clinic in Lakewood Ranch, a list that included Baugh and prominent developer Rex Jensen, inviting more concerns of favoritism in vaccine distribution."

Manatee commissioner Vanessa Baugh created vaccine priority list that included herself and donor

She sent an email to the county's public safety director with five names, including herself and Lakewood Ranch developer Rex Jensen, of people to vaccinate.

www.heraldtribune.com

 

[DisneyCane]

And apparently, Rex Jensen, the developer DeSantis called to set up the whole thing, was one of the VIPs.

Taking life-saving vaccine doses away from the general public for personal use (and political gain?) in the middle of a pandemic should be a criminal act. One the Governor of Florida, a rich developer, and the Chair of the Manatee County Commission are now all directly implicated in.

From the Sarasota Herald-Tribune:

"Manatee County Commission Chair Vanessa Baugh was criticized by fellow commissioners Thursday for creating a priority list of people to get the COVID-19 vaccine at a clinic in Lakewood Ranch, a list that included Baugh and prominent developer Rex Jensen, inviting more concerns of favoritism in vaccine distribution."

Manatee commissioner Vanessa Baugh created vaccine priority list that included herself and donor

She sent an email to the county's public safety director with five names, including herself and Lakewood Ranch developer Rex Jensen, of people to vaccinate.

www.heraldtribune.com

Her giving VIPs priority should have consequences. If she is over 64 (I didn't read the story) it wouldn't violate an executive order and it isn't illegal so the consequence would likely have to be in the next election (primary or general).

Her giving herself priority isn't any different than congress getting priority for shots. It's wrong in both cases but if congress can do it, why can't a county commissioner? And no, representatives aren't that important. They don't get secret service or any kind of protection except for the Speaker (and maybe some other leadership).

In the late 90's I was on line to early vote and ended up behind Debbie Wasserman-Shultz. She struck up a conversation and introduced herself. The only people around her were some campaign volunteers. I asked her if she got secret service protection and she said (paraphrasing), no, there's 435 of us, we're not that important.

 

[Disney Experience]

Her giving VIPs priority should have consequences. If she is over 64 (I didn't read the story) it wouldn't violate an executive order and it isn't illegal so the consequence would likely have to be in the next election (primary or general).

Her giving herself priority isn't any different than congress getting priority for shots. It's wrong in both cases but if congress can do it, why can't a county commissioner? And no, representatives aren't that important. They don't get secret service or any kind of protection except for the Speaker (and maybe some other leadership).

In the late 90's I was on line to early vote and ended up behind Debbie Wasserman-Shultz. She struck up a conversation and introduced herself. The only people around her were some campaign volunteers. I asked her if she got secret service protection and she said (paraphrasing), no, there's 435 of us, we're not that important.

She is 67 yo, so would fall into the 65+ group, and lives in the Lakewood ranch area.