Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[Touchdown]

Update on my cousin‘s father-in-law. It’s not going very well. They got his ventilator down to 60% but he wasn’t doing well and so for the last three days it’s been up to 90%. He’s been on the ventilator now for 12 days. On the 14th day they are going to discuss with his wife the option of a tracheotomy? I guess that is meant to help him wake up and not have to rely on the ventilator. His organs are doing well so for all intents and purposes he’s not actually getting worse besides all the bad stuff going on with him. So he’s not getting worse but he’s also not getting better.

The tracheotomy is more because your larynx was not designed to have a gigantic inflated balloon of an endotracheal tube and will begin to breakdown if not removed soon. A “trach” with its smaller size tube and balloon is better tolerated. But because a trach is more comfortable you can sometimes decrease sedation. I’m sorry things are not going well for him, I hope he gets well soon.

 

[hopemax]

You’re also forgetting the effects of the ongoing vaccination which should also improve things significantly by Summer, especially if we meet or exceed 100M vaccinated by May goal by Pres. Elect Biden.

The point of my post wasn't summer, but the next 3 months!

 

[correcaminos]

It’s one of those things that just didn’t even phase me. My husband has heard so much anti-vaccine talk from cousins and friends in the Brazilian community as well as truckers at his company. He’s trying to be the one to offer a more educated perspective, but it’s pretty wild. A lot of these people do not have much of an educated background. I say this without judgment because they have trade skills and work skills I could never match in a thousand lifetimes. The way I see it—it just makes a strong case for a need for widespread community education about vaccines and healthcare in general.

No judgment either. I think where info comes from plays in. Add a little telephone game syndrome with some hearsay and you get more off the wall ideas. Even a very educated friend of mine called facts opinions and I just was baffled where info came from. No one is immune. It will be hard to get right info out.

Yes, this. Between the end of the second wave, the start of nicer weather and more outdoor activity in a lot of the country and a steady increase In immune people the situation should improve greatly even without full herd immunity. I’m very hopeful for the summer...maybe not full return to normal but much better times ahead.

End of 2nd wave? My state is in the peak of their third...
Summer should help for a lot of reasons though.

 

[oceanbreeze77]

Being truly serious and kind here, you seem to be very worried about a lot with covid and the vaccine. They've said this every time they spot a variant even in spikes. Every time researchers, not media, come back and say not to worry.

I'm not "very worried" but we should all be somewhat worried when this stuff happens because that would suck so much to have a successful vaccine, only for it to be ineffective by a mutation. I am not looking at media sensationalism for this. This is not just me saying "OH LOOK ANOTHER VARIANT!!!" I actually read scientific information. After not knowing much about the UK strain, and not understanding, I have been paying closer attention these days to what is being studied.
The UK variant was concerning because it is much more virulent than the original strain, that's bad news for already overwhelmed hospitals.
This one is concerning because it contains the most changes to the spike protein, it is showing an interesting pattern when it comes to reinfection, and its possible that this variant is closest to escaping immunity. Many European countries are closing off travel from LATAM, not just the UK. Research is still being conducted on it, but it seems to have epidemiologists worried, many focused on the Spike protein.

Here are just a few good threads from professionals that you can all read about regarding the Brazil strain. Its easy to say "nah I'm not going to look at that. The media is just sensationalizing it. Theres always going to be a mutation." Its true that there will always be a mutation, but we have a rare opportunity to educate ourselves whilst it is occurring right before our eyes. Its actually very interesting stuff if you take the time to read about it. (also take a closer look at the sequencing images many have posted)

 

[oceanbreeze77]

You can’t go to the well too many times and expect people to listen.

But that doesn't mean we shouldn't try and share information, especially when it impacts public health. If we just caved to people who won't listen, masks would have been completely non existent months ago.

 

[oceanbreeze77]

I think this is an interesting development in the botched vaccine rollout. Could have major implications for how the rest of this will go.

Whitmer asks feds if Michigan can buy 100,000 vaccine doses directly from Pfizer

Right now, federal health officials buy and distribute all doses of the COVID-19 vaccine, given it's high demand by every state in the country.

www.freep.com

 

[hopemax]

FYI, Eric Feigl Ding is one of the people EpiTwitter wishes would just "stay in his own lane" or more like it "just shut up." He's been given a far bigger platform than his actual expertise would presume. Epidemiology is a huge field and his expertise isn't Infections Diseases but chronic conditions, and he does a lot in nutrition science. Same with Nate Silver. Good at one thing doesn't make you good at this, and the size of there followers means incorrect or incomplete takes are propagated at lightspeed. The problem is they think they are being helpful (unlike the deniers/hoaxers), but if they misunderstand something there are serious consequences and they haven't always demonstrated a willingness to admit when they were wrong and be more humble going forward.

Trevor Bedford, and Bill Hanage are top notch though.

 

[correcaminos]

I'm not "very worried" but we should all be somewhat worried when this stuff happens because that would suck so much to have a successful vaccine, only for it to be ineffective by a mutation. I am not looking at media sensationalism for this. This is not just me saying "OH LOOK ANOTHER VARIANT!!!" I actually read scientific information. After not knowing much about the UK strain, and not understanding, I have been paying closer attention these days to what is being studied.
The UK variant was concerning because it is much more virulent than the original strain, that's bad news for already overwhelmed hospitals.
This one is concerning because it contains the most changes to the spike protein, it is showing an interesting pattern when it comes to reinfection, and its possible that this variant is closest to escaping immunity. Many European countries are closing off travel from LATAM, not just the UK. Research is still being conducted on it, but it seems to have epidemiologists worried, many focused on the Spike protein.

Here are just a few good threads from professionals that you can all read about regarding the Brazil strain. Its easy to say "nah I'm not going to look at that. The media is just sensationalizing it. Theres always going to be a mutation." Its true that there will always be a mutation, but we have a rare opportunity to educate ourselves whilst it is occurring right before our eyes. Its actually very interesting stuff if you take the time to read about it. (also take a closer look at the sequencing images many have posted)

You do you, and I was trying to be nice about it honestly, but you seem really stressed and negative in a lot of replies including this one. I think sometimes we all need to step back from the sky is falling type news or it will burn everyone out. To be fair I'm not into twitter and mainstream news any longed so I don't get smacked with it left and right. Also to be fair I am not one whose job it is to give info on this. Me reading news and twitter will not make me more knowledgeable. Some of these experts have not agreed and some are more sensational than others (your first one listed among them that many really wish would stop talking so much as he's not really qualified to make comments that he does). I choose to listen to off mainstream sources and let them figure it out. Worrying about this does me no good is all.

 

[GoofGoof]

But that doesn't mean we shouldn't try and share information, especially when it impacts public health. If we just caved to people who won't listen, masks would have been completely non existent months ago.

Sharing information is fine, but there’s no information to share. In 2 weeks after they study the variant if it turns out to be vaccine resistant then it’s a big story. It’s more of the same song.
beginning of Jan...headlines claiming S African variant may be vaccine resistant and way worse than the UK variant
"I'm incredibly worried about the South African variant," Health Secretary Matt Hancock told BBC Radio. "This is a very, very significant problem... it's even more of a problem than the U.K. new variant."

MSN

One week later, Pfizer confirms through lab study the vaccine still works on new variant:

Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine appears effective against mutation in new coronavirus variants -study

Pfizer Inc and BioNTech's COVID-19 vaccine appears able to protect against a key mutation in the highly transmissible new variants of the coronavirus discovered in Britain and South Africa, according to a laboratory study conducted by the U.S. drugmaker.

www.reuters.com

I’m not saying there won’t be a time in the future when a mutation will make the virus vaccine resistant, but until the lab study is done and shows it’s a problem it’s just speculation and unnecessary worrying. We have enough to worry about these days.

 

[oceanbreeze77]

FYI, Eric Feigl Ding is one of the people EpiTwitter wishes would just "stay in his own lane" or more like it "just shut up." He's been given a far bigger platform than his actual expertise would presume. Epidemiology is a huge field and his expertise isn't Infections Diseases but chronic conditions, and he does a lot in nutrition science. Same with Nate Silver. Good at one thing doesn't make you good at this, and the size of there followers means incorrect or incomplete takes are propagated at lightspeed. The problem is they think they are being helpful (unlike the deniers/hoaxers), but if they misunderstand something there are serious consequences and they haven't always demonstrated a willingness to admit when they were wrong and be more humble going forward.

Trevor Bedford, and Bill Hanage are top notch though.

I agree his analysis of things can be more fluffy, and I think his political leanings have a large impact on that. I do like his attachments of graphs/other links that he uses.

 

[oceanbreeze77]

You do you, and I was trying to be nice about it honestly, but you seem really stressed and negative in a lot of replies including this one. I think sometimes we all need to step back from the sky is falling type news or it will burn everyone out. To be fair I'm not into twitter and mainstream news any longed so I don't get smacked with it left and right. Also to be fair I am not one whose job it is to give info on this. Me reading news and twitter will not make me more knowledgeable. Some of these experts have not agreed and some are more sensational than others (your first one listed among them). I choose to listen to off mainstream sources and let them figure it out. Worrying about this does me no good is all.

I'm sorry if it seems negative, that was not my intent.

I'm really into reading this type of stuff.

 

[hopemax]

I agree his analysis of things can be more fluffy, and I think his political leanings have a large impact on that. I do like his attachments of graphs/other links that he uses.

And that's the best way to treat him. If he's promoting the good works of others, especially the easier to read graphics, that's one thing. But otherwise his takes are not always better than here.

 

[oceanbreeze77]

You do you, and I was trying to be nice about it honestly, but you seem really stressed and negative in a lot of replies including this one. I think sometimes we all need to step back from the sky is falling type news or it will burn everyone out. To be fair I'm not into twitter and mainstream news any longed so I don't get smacked with it left and right. Also to be fair I am not one whose job it is to give info on this. Me reading news and twitter will not make me more knowledgeable. Some of these experts have not agreed and some are more sensational than others (your first one listed among them that many really wish would stop talking so much as he's not really qualified to make comments that he does). I choose to listen to off mainstream sources and let them figure it out. Worrying about this does me no good is all.

I will say I was stressed about the vaccine news earlier this week (I still am) but what is happening with the rollout is just disastrous. We need shots in arms ASAP and everywhere, and the lack of direction is not helping. Here in CA our governor told us one thing, and our city health departments told us another. No agreement, just pure confusion, and no real effort to clear that confusion.

 

[oceanbreeze77]

No red dot anywhere on the graph!!! HOPE

 

[seabreezept813]

M

The point of my post wasn't summer, but the next 3 months!

To be clear, I also was talking about things improving in spring, which is about 3 months from now. I was originally stating we should be locking down harder these months knowing a reprieve is coming.

 

[Polkadotdress]

Yes, but Pfizer and Moderna have both said the variant is not resistant to their vaccines. The big story a few weeks back was that the vaccine may not be effective on the new variant. Turned out not to be the case. Same story surfaced when the S Africa variant was publicized. Now one in Brazil. I am going to wait and see what the manufacturers say about the vaccine before worrying about it not being effective against this new variant.

My worry specifically is trying not to get sick, as I am an immuno-suppressed asthmatic, with no opportunity to get the vaccine soon. The new UK variant is super contagious, so EVEN THOUGH the vaccine might still work against it, for those of us who haven't had the vaccine it's a moot point. Trying to weigh out when/if I truly need to lock myself down 100%, as I'm currently still leaving the house daily to go to work.

That's my worry.

 

[Incomudro]

Yes, this. Between the end of the second wave, the start of nicer weather and more outdoor activity in a lot of the country and a steady increase In immune people the situation should improve greatly even without full herd immunity. I’m very hopeful for the summer...maybe not full return to normal but much better times ahead.

And as you said earlier - the more vulnerable populations are getting their vaccines first.
That's huge.
Remove the most vulnerable from the mix, and cases don't become hospitalizations or deaths at nearly the same rate.

 

[correcaminos]

My worry specifically is trying not to get sick, as I am an immuno-suppressed asthmatic, with no opportunity to get the vaccine soon. The new UK variant is super contagious, so EVEN THOUGH the vaccine might still work against it, for those of us who haven't had the vaccine it's a moot point. Trying to weigh out when/if I truly need to lock myself down 100%, as I'm currently still leaving the house daily to go to work.

That's my worry.

That's my worry for all those with risks especially right now. A vaccine doesn't help you if you cannot get it. Hang in there and hope you stay safe.

I will say I was stressed about the vaccine news earlier this week (I still am) but what is happening with the rollout is just disastrous. We need shots in arms ASAP and everywhere, and the lack of direction is not helping. Here in CA our governor told us one thing, and our city health departments told us another. No agreement, just pure confusion, and no real effort to clear that confusion.

I get that and I don't disagree. It's like some people were sitting on their behinds ignoring the best way to do it. Our federal govt made some big errors of judgment IMO too but we will get through it. The worry about the vaccine not working is one I just think is wasteful to worry about from an emotional standpoint. The rest... we'll get there.

 

[carolina_yankee]

I will say I was stressed about the vaccine news earlier this week (I still am) but what is happening with the rollout is just disastrous. We need shots in arms ASAP and everywhere, and the lack of direction is not helping. Here in CA our governor told us one thing, and our city health departments told us another. No agreement, just pure confusion, and no real effort to clear that confusion.

I understand the anxiety. I think we also have to look at the reality a whole new team is coming on deck that a) knows what they are doing, b) is prepared to do it, and c) understands the positive role government can have in this. That’s tremendously hopeful.

I think we also have to take a deep breath and be patient with the vaccination program. Shots are getting into arms and more shots are getting into more arms each week.

It IS going to get better.

 

[GoofGoof]

And as you said earlier - the more vulnerable populations are getting their vaccines first.
That's huge.
Remove the most vulnerable from the mix, and cases don't become hospitalizations or deaths at nearly the same rate.

That’s the plan. Every Covid stat should start to drop...total positive, percent positive, hospitalizations and deaths. We don’t need to get to zero cases to see a difference in life. There should be a gradual move towards better times ahead. Hopefully that starts soon as the NYE and holiday spike start to drop and people start getting the vaccine. I saw an article today that Israel has about 25% of their population vaccinated and have already seen a sharp drop in cases. 80% is the overall goal but hopefully we see major improvements long before we have 80% of the population vaccinated.

Israel may be starting to show 'herd effects' of Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine, expert suggests

Israel has vaccinated at least 25 percent of its population against the coronavirus so far, which leads the world and makes it "the country to watch for herd effects from" the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine, says infectious disease expert David Fishman. Recently, the case rate in Israel...

news.yahoo.com