Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[DisneyCane]

The plan for Florida I will be ready for mine as well as my family.

Gov. Ron DeSantis unveils Florida’s COVID-19 vaccine plan; who will get it first?

Gov. Ron DeSantis unveiled who will get the vaccine first and when it could be more widely available on Wednesday evening.

www.wftv.com

Just getting the 200k nursing home residents vaccinated will eliminate 35% of the COVID deaths in Florida (assuming 90% effective vaccine). Quite the bang for the buck.

 

[GoofGoof]

Who said keep all restrictions in place indefinitely or cases go to zero? So why even introduce that strawman for others to latch onto?

Chi84 and I are having a disagreement because I said masks would be around longer than people think *in 2021*. I said to you, that we won't reach the necessary vaccination / immunity threshold until Fall. I also said that health officials are still going to watch out for a winter resurgence. I said distancing requirements would go away sooner. I said for WDW, capacity restrictions will start to diminish first. So if you think I am advocating for all restrictions, I don't know what to say.

Sorry, I think I misunderstood what you were saying. You said the restrictions needed to be extended to protect the percent of people that aren’t vaccinated. I thought by that you meant “indefinitely” until the virus wasn’t a threat anymore because there will always be some percent of people that don’t get vaccinated. If what you are saying is that the extension is only until the vaccine is widely available to everyone then we are saying the same thing. I think we disagree on our estimate of when that will be. I’m hopeful it’s more spring/early summer then fall but who knows.

 

[marni1971]

C’mon America pull yourselves together

Coronavirus: US hits record Covid cases and hospitalisations https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-55170329

 

[GoofGoof]

Of course, assuming their estimate is accurate, it means the infection fatality rate is 1/8 of what has been reported. It would make it around 0.25%. Let's even say 0.3% to account for death and reporting lag. How many news reports focus on that aspect?

Dead is dead. A person is dying every minute in this country from Covid. In the time it took me to type this someone took their last breath. For that person the mortality rate didn’t matter. You may call that fear mongering or whatever you want and that’s fine, but it’s just a fact. The percent of people who are positive may be small, but a small percent of 330M people are spreading this virus pretty easily. The hundred thousand people in the hospital right now know this all too well. I am fine with you or anyone else who wants to downplay the severity, whatever gets you by, but it’s not some media created fear mongering that has no basis in reality.

 

[GoofGoof]

Just getting the 200k nursing home residents vaccinated will eliminate 35% of the COVID deaths in Florida (assuming 90% effective vaccine). Quite the bang for the buck.

Now that’s something we can agree on too...getting scary . It’s actually around 40% nationwide although I suspect the large number of deaths in the NE in Mar/Apr skew it a little bit. In theory by mid-January we could take around 1/3 of deaths off the table just with the first phase of vaccinations. Pretty great news

When you get to the second round of vaccinations we knock out people over 65 and people with conditions that make them more high risk for serious Covid complications. Not sure when that will be, but maybe around April. The death toll should drop way down once we get there. We just have to hang on a few more months.

 

[bpiper]

I have a couple of questions that I haven't seen anywhere so I will throw it up for debate...

If a person tested positive for the virus, should they then get the vaccine or would it not be necessary? If not necessary, that would really stretch the vaccine supply. It would get us to herd immunity much faster and return things to a new normal sooner. Maybe give them the vaccine towards the end to make sure it doesn't come back for them.

What happens if you have been vaccinated and come into intimate contact with someone infected? How does your body react? Do you start to feel symptoms and then they go away? I have had that before with colds, start to feel it and then it goes away without becoming full blown. Although this brings up the question, are you infectious during the period?

 

[sullyinMT]

I don't mind most buffets. The only bad ones seem to be the character dining ones as the food is secondary. Most are some of the worst rated food on property.

I would agree, with the exception of the Tusker House breakfast. It’s a truly enjoyable meal.
I hope that Chef Mickeys and, upon reinstating Pooh, Crystal Palace, stick to a family style meal more akin to Garden Grill. Those two restaurants are awful from a food (and unclean kids’ hands on everything) standpoint.

 

[sullyinMT]

Now that’s something we can agree on too...getting scary . It’s actually around 40% nationwide although I suspect the large number of deaths in the NE in Mar/Apr skew it a little bit. In theory by mid-January we could take around 1/3 of deaths off the table just with the first phase of vaccinations. Pretty great news

When you get to the second round of vaccinations we knock out people over 65 and people with conditions that make them more high risk for serious Covid complications. Not sure when that will be, but maybe around April. The death toll should drop way down once we get there. We just have to hang on a few more months.

Not just deaths. As you mention, phase 2 will bring about vaccination of higher risk GP. When that starts to have an effect (I hope the April/May timeline is correct), hospitalizations will spiral downward even if infections don’t necessarily follow course until younger and less risk people are able to be vaccinated.

 

[dreday3]

Now that’s something we can agree on too...getting scary . It’s actually around 40% nationwide although I suspect the large number of deaths in the NE in Mar/Apr skew it a little bit. In theory by mid-January we could take around 1/3 of deaths off the table just with the first phase of vaccinations. Pretty great news

When you get to the second round of vaccinations we knock out people over 65 and people with conditions that make them more high risk for serious Covid complications. Not sure when that will be, but maybe around April. The death toll should drop way down once we get there. We just have to hang on a few more months.

Also, the nursing home residents account for a large amount of hospitalizations. So getting them vaccinated will also help with that.
And I think I read there was approval to do some of the Covid treatments in nursing homes now rather than being admitted to hospital.

Some issues in our area hospitals are nursing homes are trying to re-admit patients at the sign of a sniffle, due to fear of Covid. Some of these patients don't need to be admitted, but nursing homes are refusing to take them back. It's a mess.

 

[ToTBellHop]

My guess? 6 months to a year after cases drop to a low enough level that the kind of numbers Disney depends on feel safe to travel again. So, well over a year from now and likely longer.

No.

 

[Chi84]

Why acknowledge that at all? All that does is make it harder to get people to follow guidelines then it is now. The more you downplay the virus, the more people will think it's ok not to worry about it. Less people taking precautions is not a good thing. We all want this to be over but downplaying this it the way to do it.

I guess where we disagree is whether reporting the facts is downplaying the virus. I don't think it is. It may come down to how much intelligence you accord to the general public. From what I can tell, this is a rarified site of older, wealthier, more conservative people a/k/a the people who can afford to take multiple Disney trips. I see very little respect for the intelligence or character of the general public, and maybe that's justified. But I don't agree with exaggeration, hyperbole or lying as a way to get people to do what you think they should. It didn't work well when the government "downplayed" the effectiveness of masks in order to manipulate people into not hoarding them.

This is personal opinion, and I respect the opinions of those who disagree. I fear saying any more will provoke Sirwalterraleigh, and I don't want to be responsible for that.

 

[ToTBellHop]

I wonder the same thing. I assume they are taking the time to review the data before they meet. But it seems to me that they data should have been packaged by Pfizer (and their outside review board) and that it shouldn't take 3 weeks to review. There is only some much you can do with a data set and a skilled statistician wouldn't take that long to look through everything.

The Pfizer data report is 100,000 pages long. Of course, there’s a shorter white paper.

 

[HarperRose]

C’mon America pull yourselves together

Coronavirus: US hits record Covid cases and hospitalisations https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-55170329

And daily deaths.

 

[hopemax]

Sorry, I think I misunderstood what you were saying. You said the restrictions needed to be extended to protect the percent of people that aren’t vaccinated. I thought by that you meant “indefinitely” until the virus wasn’t a threat anymore because there will always be some percent of people that don’t get vaccinated. If what you are saying is that the extension is only until the vaccine is widely available to everyone then we are saying the same thing. I think we disagree on our estimate of when that will be. I’m hopeful it’s more spring/early summer then fall but who knows.

I think it will take longer than when the lines for a vaccine go away, or appointments are widely available. BECAUSE uptake won’t be enough, at that point.

Too many people waiting to see how their friends do with the shot. Especially, in the large group of healthy people who don’t fear the virus as much. So if their healthy friends start getting it in late Spring, then they’ll wait until late Summer. Basically, I’m predicting the healthy people will self-select themselves into waves. We will have to wait for multiple waves in order to reach the threshold, not just the initial batch of healthy people.

 

[Chi84]

I've tried to do the math a couple of times in this thread to estimate the percentage of potential spreaders out of the population at any given time. I just get hammered for minimizing the situation and admonished that "you don't know if you are in the tiny percentage of the population that is asymptomatic and contagious."

Everyone has their limit, and I seem to remember you (I think it was you - not entirely sure) reaching yours when one poster stated that out of a Disney theater filled with 100 COVID positive guests, 2 would die. That was quickly followed up by another poster who posited that 2 out of every 100 people who rode Slinky Dog Dash would die. (Maybe I should re-think post #46,712)

 

[ToTBellHop]

I have a couple of questions that I haven't seen anywhere so I will throw it up for debate...

If a person tested positive for the virus, should they then get the vaccine or would it not be necessary? If not necessary, that would really stretch the vaccine supply. It would get us to herd immunity much faster and return things to a new normal sooner. Maybe give them the vaccine towards the end to make sure it doesn't come back for them.

What happens if you have been vaccinated and come into intimate contact with someone infected? How does your body react? Do you start to feel symptoms and then they go away? I have had that before with colds, start to feel it and then it goes away without becoming full blown. Although this brings up the question, are you infectious during the period?

No one knows how long immunity lasts nor will we during the actual pandemic. Also, far more people have had COVID than been tested. False positives mean some people who think they had Covid actually did not. Antibody tests are imperfect. The process necessary to measure antibody levels for everyone would be exhaustive. There’s no harm in getting a vaccine for something you’ve had (this is like getting a booster). So, the recommendation will be that everyone get vaccinated.

 

[DisneyCane]

I think it will take longer than when the lines for a vaccine go away, or appointments are widely available. BECAUSE uptake won’t be enough, at that point.

Too many people waiting to see how their friends do with the shot. Especially, in the large group of healthy people who don’t fear the virus as much. So if their healthy friends start getting it in late Spring, then they’ll wait until late Summer. Basically, I’m predicting the healthy people will self-select themselves into waves. We will have to wait for multiple waves in order to reach the threshold, not just the initial batch of healthy people.

Once we are at the point where anybody that wants to has had the opportunity to get vaccinated, all restrictions and measures should immediately cease. Assuming the vaccine(s) is 90% effective at preventing somebody from getting sick and everybody who wants to has been vaccinated, there will be no justification at all for continuing to harm businesses and inconvenience everybody to protect people who voluntarily don't want protection and 10% or less of the people that do.

 

[Jrb1979]

I guess where we disagree is whether reporting the facts is downplaying the virus. I don't think it is. It may come down to how much intelligence you accord to the general public. From what I can tell, this is a rarified site of older, wealthier, more conservative people a/k/a the people who can afford to take multiple Disney trips. I see very little respect for the intelligence or character of the general public, and maybe that's justified. But I don't agree with exaggeration, hyperbole or lying as a way to get people to do what you think they should. It didn't work well when the government "downplayed" the effectiveness of masks in order to manipulate people into not hoarding them.

This is personal opinion, and I respect the opinions of those who disagree. I fear saying any more will provoke Sirwalterraleigh, and I don't want to be responsible for that.

If most general public are like the ones that go to amusement parks, then I my faith in high intelligence is very low. The fact most don't understand seat belt first and lap bar second on a roller coaster is shocking.

The other reason I don't think many general public has high intelligence is how so many are acting during this pandemic. The CDC puts out all these advisories on non essential travel and no large gatherings, look at how many decided not too listen. Not very smart to me.

 

[hopemax]

Once we are at the point where anybody that wants to has had the opportunity to get vaccinated, all restrictions and measures should immediately cease. Assuming the vaccine(s) is 90% effective at preventing somebody from getting sick and everybody who wants to has been vaccinated, there will be no justification at all for continuing to harm businesses and inconvenience everybody to protect people who voluntarily don't want protection and 10% or less of the people that do.

And this is what I meant about “what people on message boards will say.” Sorry, public health policy doesn’t work that way. We aren’t going to wait for everyone, but we will wait until deep into 2021.

 

[ToTBellHop]

Once we are at the point where anybody that wants to has had the opportunity to get vaccinated, all restrictions and measures should immediately cease. Assuming the vaccine(s) is 90% effective at preventing somebody from getting sick and everybody who wants to has been vaccinated, there will be no justification at all for continuing to harm businesses and inconvenience everybody to protect people who voluntarily don't want protection and 10% or less of the people that do.

Agreed. We shouldn’t keep kids out of school because Karen wants to wait to “review data” because she knows better than Fauci.